CAJ - Capitol Health

[Boggo]

...
this stock has yet to disappoint and is certainly a long term hold.

I wonder if it can repeat the past run, amazing results again yesterday.

Weekly chart.

 

[leyy]

Strong buying / large volume at close of trading today.

closed shy off its recent highs of 0.72 cents

The chart is looking very good for a break out.

Could be some instos loading up or potential takeover, regardless of the outcome CAJ is going north from here.


Cheers
leyy

 

[pixel]

Strong buying / large volume at close of trading today.

closed shy off its recent highs of 0.72 cents

The chart is looking very good for a break out.

Could be some instos loading up or potential takeover, regardless of the outcome CAJ is going north from here.


Cheers
leyy

It looks like a Cup & Handle setup: http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/cup_and_handle_bullish.cfm

 

[leyy]

Huge announcement today with the acquisition of Southern Radiology Group.

10-15% EPS accretive FY15.

First expansion out of Victoria into Australia's biggest market Sydney/NSW.

Watch this space, this company has huge prospects for long term growth through acquisitions and organic growth.

3 years ago the share price was 0.03 cents.

John Conidi has to be commended on the management of Capitol Health.

He also holds 32 million shares.


Cheers,
leyy

 

[leyy]

Gap up, strong close today $0.755 cents another 8.6% increase two strong days on two red days.

All time 3 year high for CAJ hopefully this confirms the break of resistance at $0.70 cents.

 

[Gordon7]

I consider yesterday's move a good breakout out of a short term flag-like retracement, but have a look at the volume since mid December. I don't often pay attention to volume but the volume surrounding this move speaks loudly to me. I anticipate higher from here.

Unfortunately this wasn't on my immediate watchlist so I missed it, but will keep an eye on how it plays from here on.

 

[leyy]

Another stellar result from CAJ.

I am kicking myself as I sold half of my holdings from both my SMSF and Personal account at 0.82 and also I didn't top up on the cap raising for the two acquisitions... as CAJ is already my largest holding... far too large. Can't be too greedy i guess already up circa 400% on this.

Summary of the results.

14% revenue growth
53% NPAT
41% EPS
0.60 cents dividend, 50% dividend growth from interim dividend FY14 and 20% dividend growth final dividend FY14


5/7 MRI have recently been installed which has not contributed to the revenue growth.

Impressive results and purely from organic growth.

What's more exciting is the two recent acquisitions below are EPS accretive FY15 and expands their business from VIC to NSW.

Olympic Park - FY'14 = Revenue 10.4m / EBITDA 3.3m

Southern Radiology - FY'14 = Revenue 37m / EBITDA 7.2m


Lastly, they have a very clean balance sheet/ good OCF and very good management.

Well done John Conidi!


Cheers

 

[tinhat]

Catching the falling knife, I recently bought into CAJ on fundamentals alone. Amazing that this company recently retraced 50% of the price run from the beginning of 2012 to March 2015 and a 100% retracement to the December 2014 low. The price has made a double bottom over the past couple of weeks.

The interview of the MD by Alan Kohler in 2014 is worth watching for anyone interested in the validity of the growth by acquisition strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzv3fMTi3TU

Also worth keeping an eye on is the upcoming I-MED radiology IPO.

 

[Triathlete]

Catching the falling knife, I recently bought into CAJ on fundamentals alone. Amazing that this company recently retraced 50% of the price run from the beginning of 2012 to March 2015 and a 100% retracement to the December 2014 low.

The price has made a double bottom over the past couple of weeks.

.

If I was looking at the charts for a technical view I would not call it a double bottom ,which has not been confirmed either.... but rather just bouncing off support . If it got to $0.03 then I might call it a double bottom then.

The daily, weekly and monthly swings are all down at the moment so no indication that the stock is ready to move back up just yet...in my view at the moment....

So may still go lower....Lets hope this support level holds...

Fundamentally looks like good value though..

 

[Porper]

Catching the falling knife, I recently bought into CAJ on fundamentals alone. Amazing that this company recently retraced 50% of the price run from the beginning of 2012 to March 2015 and a 100% retracement to the December 2014 low. The price has made a double bottom over the past couple of weeks.

The interview of the MD by Alan Kohler in 2014 is worth watching for anyone interested in the validity of the growth by acquisition strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzv3fMTi3TU

Also worth keeping an eye on is the upcoming I-MED radiology IPO.

No idea about fundamentals but an interesting cluster of time projections in September/October. Yep, a large target in terms of time but below is the weekly chart so acceptable when looking at the larger degree patterns. Bottom line is that this area of support needs to hold.

It also looks like a 5-wave move down off highs so looking for a larger bounce as opposed to a multi-year trend higher. Target area $0.85 - 0.90.

 

[Triathlete]

No idea about fundamentals but an interesting cluster of time projections in September/October. Yep, a large target in terms of time but below is the weekly chart so acceptable when looking at the larger degree patterns. Bottom line is that this area of support needs to hold.

It also looks like a 5-wave move down off highs so looking for a larger bounce as opposed to a multi-year trend higher. Target area $0.85 - 0.90.

Those Time clusters look very interesting Porper.
What does your EW look like on the weekly/monthly chart?

 

[Porper]

Those Time clusters look very interesting Porper.
What does your EW look like on the weekly/monthly chart?

With a chart like this it's often better to use semi-log which is what I've done here. A rise of over 3600% since late 2011 means we can better label the early patterns. A significant top could well be in although a decent bounce from here is likely i.m.o.

 

[Triathlete]

With a chart like this it's often better to use semi-log which is what I've done here. A rise of over 3600% since late 2011 means we can better label the early patterns. A significant top could well be in although a decent bounce from here is likely i.m.o.

We are at the two strongest price levels at the moment.
50% of the All time high and 50% of the All time range

So a bounce is on the cards from here in my opinion.

 

[Triathlete]

We are at the two strongest price levels at the moment.
50% of the All time high and 50% of the All time range

So a bounce is on the cards from here in my opinion.

CAJ has broken through the two major support levels this week so no bounce as anticipated previously and has now closed at $0.535.

This move lower has been supported with increased volume and to me looks like further falls are likely and $0.44 looks likely at the moment imo.

 

[tinhat]

I haven't hit my stop loss yet but it is not heading in the right direction.

I skimmed over the Integral Diagnostics (IDX) IPO prospectus today https://www.idxshareoffer.com.au/

I think the market is repricing this to some extent based on the IDX IPO. Similar sizes in terms of EBITA with IDX carrying less debt (post float) but more net debt as CAJ have over $40m cash on hand compared to IDX $10m.

Investors might also be attracted to IDX by the prospect of a decent dividend yield. The prospectus gives no firm guidance on dividends but suggests an implied dividend to offer price of 4.7% based on a 70% payout ratio of FY2016F NPATA.

On the whole I would say that while the forecast earnings growth for IDX as per the prospectus is very roughly similar to the forecasts for CAJ (that is high!), both companies appear to have a strategy of growth by acquisition (as the organic rate of growth in the diagnostic imaging industry is only 5.4%pa). CAJ appears to be better geared to funding growth by acquisition (more cash on hand).

By the way, I rang Comsec to ask if they were a participating broker in the IDX retail offer and was informed they are not. Does anyone else have info on this? The share offer telephone number only has a recorded message and won't be staffed until the offer opens next week. The prospectus states they are accepting $2,000 minimum investment.

 

[tinhat]

This move lower has been supported with increased volume and to me looks like further falls are likely and $0.44 looks likely at the moment imo.

The bounce never came but it never hit my stop loss either and the fundamentals on which I invested haven't substantially changed. In fact, I had an order in at $0.45 which triggered this morning and seeing as I am in neck deep now, picked up some more at 40.5c - so am sitting with a holding under the water at 52c per share.

I assume that the guidance update issued last night accounts for today's collapse in the share price (Vic operational weakness, lower anticipated referrals, revenue for full year expected to be down 4-6% on forecast) rather than the investment into Enlitic announced this morning.

The Enlitic investment is interesting. I also like that they are offering their radiologists a slice of that investment. CAJ will be feeding their data and archived data to Enlitic to feed into their deep learning programs. Fascinating if nothing else.

Watch the TED talk at the bottom of the page.

 

[skc]

The bounce never came but it never hit my stop loss either and the fundamentals on which I invested haven't substantially changed.

This part seemed reasonable.

In fact, I had an order in at $0.45 which triggered this morning and seeing as I am in neck deep now, picked up some more at 40.5c - so am sitting with a holding under the water at 52c per share.

Not so sure about this approach!

I assume that the guidance update issued last night accounts for today's collapse in the share price (Vic operational weakness, lower anticipated referrals, revenue for full year expected to be down 4-6% on forecast) rather than the investment into Enlitic announced this morning.

When a stock is trading at PE 50x it doesn't take much to bring the share price down. They tried to hide the update in the back of an announcement, after market, marked non-sensitive... then tried to further cover it up with another announcement this morning.... very poor form.

The Enlitic investment is interesting. I also like that they are offering their radiologists a slice of that investment. CAJ will be feeding their data and archived data to Enlitic to feed into their deep learning programs. Fascinating if nothing else.

Very interesting except for the part where they are going to sink $10m into the venture which will undoubtedly generate no return for the foreseeable future.

 

[skyQuake]

That was the fastest 3Y i'd ever seen.

Director buys some stock on market @ 42c and immediately tells the world... seems pretty desperate!

 

[skc]

That was the fastest 3Y i'd ever seen.

Director buys some stock on market @ 42c and immediately tells the world... seems pretty desperate!

Yes I know... I read it and had a chuckle.

I believe this is the phone conversation that took place between the other Directors and Peter Lewis.

"Peter, we are hurting too much with our existing holdings. Seeing that you have no shares could you buy some on market? I will put you down for 200k and the 3Y is ready to go."

So he bought 200k shares on a day where vol is getting close to 50m (10% of issued stock).

 

[PeterJ]

I am glad i use stops and was out of this months ago !