CCL - Coca-Cola Amatil

[rimtas]

Yeap, totally agree... To read charts you don't need to be a PHD, Bachelor or even finished high school, every one can do it . You don't need excel skills also. Actually, you don't need anything, except a specific knowledge about how markets behave.
This knowledge is acquired by getting familiar yourself with a theory and then follows three steps-practice, practice, practice. At least five years everyday observation/trading in different kind of markets until you start to notice that markets are not random and that they do not follow fundamentals-it's all way around-fundamentals follow the markets.

Back to CCL-we just have a 5 wave drop to new lows-this could be a 1st wave decline and 2nd wave correction is now unfolding. A 3rd wave crash should cover the vast amount of price territory in the next step.

 

[galumay]

I will leave the wave structures to the surfers!

I had another look into CCL when it hit $9 recently, but I still have enough concerns about the underlying business that it still didnt provide a satisfactory MoS for me at that price.

I may be wrong and the company may recover from its current issues, but if I am right there is still some downside until it reaches its IV.

 

[So_Cynical]

Triple - quadruple bottom its all good...bottom consolidation, its a big stock and maybe it takes awhile to shake out the uncomfortable, i remember with CSL back in the day it took a good 8 months (from memory) to see off the $28 bottom.

 

[DJG]

At least five years everyday observation/trading in different kind of markets until you start to notice that markets are not random and that they do not follow fundamentals-it's all way around-fundamentals follow the markets.

Do you mind elaborating on the bold part? Perhaps examples of where this has happened.

 

[Smurf1976]

fundamentals follow the markets.

I'm not convinced on this one.

I contend that in practice, the market tends to foresee things but not cause them. Eg the market foresees a drop in wheat production due to weather and the price of wheat rises in anticipation of this. So the price has indeed lead the fundamentals as such. But the rising price of wheat didn't cause a drought etc to occur in the first place, the market is simply foreseeing and/or reacting to something that is going to happen anyway.

 

[rryall]

Pay freeze for employees next year and a 38% cut in wages for future employees. Thoughts?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...ployees-to-work-for-less-20140910-10exj8.html

 

[Wysiwyg]

$9 support level was breached and bought up but there have been more refusals to go higher since then.

Pay freeze for employees next year and a 38% cut in wages for future employees. Thoughts?

Shareholders may see this as a good move. An employee may not.

 

[rimtas]

Perhaps examples of where this has happened.

It is happening everywhere. I do not point to particular stock, but the market as a whole. Social mood is the major driving force which moves everything, and the stock market is the only indicator which has the ability to record what kind of mood is in the market right now.

All fundamentals are just a statistical information of what has already hapenend, it does not have anything to do with what will happen next.

And by the way -The drought will not cause the weat prices to rise, there a heaps of examples when it drops on this kind of event. It just people who wants to rationalize and see everything as the cause, because human mind just can't accept ilogical events. Rationalization after the fact is on everyday news and forums, everyone can find "a cause"- there are plenty to chose from and explain wherever the market goes.

 

[galumay]

All fundamentals are just a statistical information of what has already hapenend, it does not have anything to do with what will happen next.

Thats so funny, coming from a proponent of TA! Aghh the irony.

 

[Smurf1976]

All fundamentals are just a statistical information of what has already hapenend, it does not have anything to do with what will happen next.

Another factor is how you define the terms. "Fundamentals" means different things to different people.

To some, fundamentals means real, tangible stuff. What the business actually does, what assets it has and so on.

To others, fundamentals is a purely financial question based on the company's accounts.

Both can be relevant, either individually or combined, depending on context.

 

[jdenhaan]

$9 support is gone. Has to be a solid buy for B&H.

 

[tech/a]

Sounds like punter logic.

Support gone-----Brilliant.

Go to the JBH thread might want to jump on those as well.

 

[Wysiwyg]

$9 support is gone. Has to be a solid buy for B&H.

The faithful are still in. Hoping the break will be just a small one and price will turn up again. Company wise coke is a household brand name and one would think the long term coke story isn't over yet.

 

[Miner]

The faithful are still in. Hoping the break will be just a small one and price will turn up again. Company wise coke is a household brand name and one would think the long term coke story isn't over yet.

Both Coke and Pepsi have agreed to fight calories and bring down the calorie level to a significant level in next 10 years. It will be a make and break for them as the main market for Coke and Pepsi is US and they love the sugar . So reduction of sugar could mean reduction of sales.
What we could speculate on PMV and Solomon Lews's massive cash in hand situation. Lew may heal up his wound to offer a take over of CCL when the price still slides. So from speculation perspective only there is a merit for CCL or a massive shake up with current market. There is no fundamental support I see for CCL in immediate future in Australian market also because we are more calorie and fitness conscious here than I have seen in USA. If Starbucks come then I could see a massive downfall of CCL investors in favour of Starbucks . THis is however no science and my wishful thoughts only. So as always treat your own money for growth not gamble

 

[galumay]

If Starbucks come then I could see a massive downfall of CCL investors in favour of Starbucks .

How do Starbucks have anything to do with CCL? I thought they just made really bad coffee?

 

[Miner]

How do Starbucks have anything to do with CCL? I thought they just made really bad coffee?

Good point. Tastes differ. There are lots of people love Tim Hortons and McCafe Coffee - I hated them because of loss of apetite after consuming them. That does not mean I am right .

What matters for business is the marketing hype capitalising consumers money with high profit margin.

IMO we in Australia are some what crazy to imitate US fashion though on face of it we pretend to show our hatred towards Yankees (lets face it - we do the same attitude to others be a South Africans or Pom ) . Sorry to digrace but I am bringing out the point of marketing hype, product marketing and marketing strategy aspect to understand a market .

If I may give a similar example with HM fashion coming to Australia if not come already. In USA and CANADA this is just another chain - no difference there but here it does. We are just crazy about showing off and spending . Ha Ha. I am no difference.

So bottom line of my comparison was to illustraate customers preference in Australia towards Coffee than Coke. Americans in USA are hooked up consumption of Coke. Starbucks has a great marketing appeal with his cup and logo. Tastes vary and see their share price in NYSE.

So my one cent guess is those people who just want some drink to kill the boredoom will go for coffee. A great chunk of customer base in Australia is generation Y. Starbucks is famous to offer their premises for free Wifi - and a good joint for chat with IPad and laptops. There is no such thing with Coke premises (you could argue they have low capital base but each Starbuck coffee will cost $5) . So a chunk of coke lovers will spend at Starbucks shop and buy the products. Obviously hot and cold do not go together. How many people in street we see carrying a coke can ? We do carry coffee. Plus starbucks make a great hype with their coffee beans. THat is another market for people going to use branded coffee beans in their coffee machines.
That was my wishful thought that with Starbucks coming to Australia will snatch not only Coke market but also some of the known coffee chains.

 

[galumay]

.....
That was my wishful thought that with Starbucks coming to Australia will snatch not only Coke market but also some of the known coffee chains.

Ok, I see your logic! Cant say I agree, i dont think a chain like Starbucks would take off here, they make woeful coffee from grossly over roasted beans, I think the coffee market in Australia is way too sophisticated for SB's. Even in America they are know as Charbucks for their burnt beans!

I also just cant see the market for take away, fizzy, cold, super sweet soft drinks being replaced by sit down hot coffee. I think there will be a move of market share to more healthy drinks - although that has probably already happened and its only the locked on soft drink consumers that are left and I am not sure they know or care about health issues!

 

[Miner]

Ok, I see your logic! Cant say I agree, i dont think a chain like Starbucks would take off here, they make woeful coffee from grossly over roasted beans, I think the coffee market in Australia is way too sophisticated for SB's. Even in America they are know as Charbucks for their burnt beans!

I also just cant see the market for take away, fizzy, cold, super sweet soft drinks being replaced by sit down hot coffee. I think there will be a move of market share to more healthy drinks - although that has probably already happened and its only the locked on soft drink consumers that are left and I am not sure they know or care about health issues!

Personally I will be very happy to see what you said is going to happen in Australia. Because that means my south looking CCL investment through superfund will look better. Who knows ?

I will send you a no string attached and thanks note with full 30 pack coke cans (seriously) should CCL price rise to a respected level at least 10% return in next 12 months.

Cheers

 

[galumay]

Personally I will be very happy to see what you said is going to happen in Australia. Because that means my south looking CCL investment through superfund will look better. Who knows ?

I will send you a no string attached and thanks note with full 30 pack coke cans (seriously) should CCL price rise to a respected level at least 10% return in next 12 months.

Cheers

Remember, you can never go wrong by underestimating the general populaces lack of common sense and taste! In all likelihood CCL will recover with bogans continuing to drink gallons of coke and also charbucks will take off because really crap coffee is the next sizzlers!

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't see how Coke and coffee are competitors.

Perhaps I'm biased in that I can't stand the taste of coffee but think Coke is OK (though I don't drink much of the stuff) but I can't see how a coffee shop diverts people away from drinking Coke. It seems to be a very different market to me.