CCL - Coca-Cola Amatil

[jdenhaan]

Whoever's in balls deep... You better hold on. This thing is going to be a roller coaster this week.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-...fit-slumps-83-per-cent-to-20-year-low/5266372

 

[ROE]

They missed their own guidance again, here comes the re-price ...people still look at this thing in the rear mirror and refuse to accept what is coming after the 1st half result.

 

[jdenhaan]

They missed their own guidance again, here comes the re-price ...people still look at this thing in the rear mirror and refuse to accept what is coming after the 1st half result.

The problem is in that writedown in VIC; manufacturing in Oz is simply not sustainable with wages the way they are.

 

[McLovin]

What's the deal in Indonesia?

35% increase in the minimum wage.

 

[notting]

stop to 11.80 on the short.
Was hovering to close out if it reacted positivity today which would have indicated to me that the bad news was priced in and if the market was still happy with the 22m from Hockey and not worried about a further 80m spend for jam!!
Will be watching the way it closes today to see if the negativity follows through or it's a final capitulation.
$10 or there about, still the target.

 

[jdenhaan]

Up 0.76%. Most of the misery was already in the price?

 

[So_Cynical]

In with the super fund today at $10.97 ~ with the recent good luck i have experienced with my super fund trades i don't expect this trade to be as successful, as fast, but you never do know...happy to wait 10 days or 10 months or whatever for this to come good.

To be honest i have never followed CCL as it was always to expensive to get my attention but the recent string of 52 week lows have stirred my interest, my 3 year chart shows the SP to be currently hitting 31 month lows, opportunity's to cheaply buy into big dominant players are rare outside of GFC type events so its hard to pass this up.
~

 

[DJG]

Nice move So_Cynical - I was waiting to see if it would manage to get under that $11 mark that it just seemed to be teasing for months! If I had the cash, I'd also be in.

 

[notting]

In with the super fund today at $10.97 ~ with the recent good luck i have experienced with my super fund trades i don't expect this trade to be as successful, as fast, but you never do know...happy to wait 10 days or 10 months or whatever for this to come good.

To be honest i have never followed CCL as it was always to expensive to get my attention but the recent string of 52 week lows have stirred my interest, my 3 year chart shows the SP to be currently hitting 31 month lows, opportunity's to cheaply buy into big dominant players are rare outside of GFC type events so its hard to pass this up.
~

Nothing wrong with that for the long term.
Short term obviously risky.

 

[DJG]

Giving CCL's new import a crack!

 

[jdenhaan]

Got in at ~11.79 and looking to double up. In this one for the long haul; looks like a great backbone for a fresh new portfolio

 

[VSntchr]

ROE, as time goes on I think your call about CCL being squeezed by the SUPER-chains is getting more and more prevalent. Another trading update today which indicates expected H1 EBIT over PCP down around 15%.

But the problems seem wider spread with non-grocery channel suffering aswell.

Indonesia and PNG look to be growing, but as we know growth doesn't always equal value and can just as easily destroy value. Wage cost pressures (or is that wages rising to a somewhat more realistic level?) and intensifying competition keeping a lid on any value add from this section of the biz.

But these sections are pretty small in the scheme of things and its the grocery and non-grocery markets in Aus that matter most, if I were invested in CCL however - I think that I'd be placing less and less confidence in the potential upside value that the Indo market provides...

 

[ROE]

ok I dipped my toe in today, under $10 I now factoring in a lot of bad news...Can average down from here...
I use based earning of 55c from here on...

 

[McLovin]

This has shades of 1999-2000. CCL shares got ahead of itself then, shares halved to ~$3.50 over the next 18 months because there was some difficulty in the Philippines.

 

[notting]

Taking profits at 9.80.
Someone asked me to show how I would trade it so that is why I have updated at the appropriate times.
I thought it was in this thread but unless it's been deleted it may have been in another thread regarding CCL.
10 was my target. So implementing discipline.

 

[ROE]

ROE, as time goes on I think your call about CCL being squeezed by the SUPER-chains is getting more and more prevalent. Another trading update today which indicates expected H1 EBIT over PCP down around 15%.
..

All the pro CCL fund managers and analyst will get frustrated soon
For ignoring the warning signs - and start reversing the trend

That when I start to load up big

 

[DJG]

I'm actually quite surprised at how large the price drop was. I thought most of it would've been 'expected' except for perhaps the 'non-grocery' channel part.

 

[VSntchr]

All the pro CCL fund managers and analyst will get frustrated soon
For ignoring the warning signs - and start reversing the trend

That when I start to load up big

Listen to the investor conference call, this is already occuring...I had a big LOL when Gino Rossi came on and got quite emotional....

 

[ROE]

Listen to the investor conference call, this is already occuring...I had a big LOL when Gino Rossi came on and got quite emotional....

yeah I read that little review on AFR .... Nothing pissed you off more when you are so pro CCL and you got slapped down with a downgrade a few weeks out of your myth buster series and latest result and my short on AZJ going no where, should have short CCL instead when I have that bearish view

That would have been an awesome combo short it to a level you like, close the position and start going long

too many fund managers and analyst pro AZJ, one man cant beat an army

 

[Tyler Durden]

So much for Warren Buffet's advice to choose stocks that you wouldn't mind holding if the market closed for 10 years...