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South Australian election 15 March 2014

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drsmith

drsmith

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With part of SA's most expensive road project opening today (South Road Superway), this should be a good day for the SA government.

This though is how the current government is kicking off the election campaign.

South Australia's Labor Party is in pre-election turmoil, with Premier Jay Weatherill threatening to resign if outgoing Senator Don Farrell is endorsed by the party to stand for a state seat ahead of the March poll.
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-31/farrell-to-run-for-sa-parliament/5229582
 
Latest polls have this looking tight.

From the little bit of that campaign I've seen, it looked very lacklustre.

There's no odds on this at all on Sportsbet.
 
It's a bit of a worry when the Liberal leader tells people to vote Labor!

Birthday cakes, chocolate factories - it seems that politicians would be wise to keep well away from any food containing lots of sugar.
 
Chocolate is far less hazardous in the factory than it is on a birthday cake. Just ask John Hewson.

Smurf1976 said:
It's a bit of a worry when the Liberal leader tells people to vote Labor.
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It's good to see someone other than myself contributing to this thread. I was beginning to worry it might be more boring than the NT election thread.

Labor's been trying to portray Steven Marshall as a bit of a goose. Today's little gaffe won't help.
 
Very interesting indeed.

In terms of the final outcome, the most significant part of the Newspoll commentary below is highlighted in bold,

LABOR has narrowed the Liberal Party’s lead ahead of today’s South Australian election, with the state facing the prospect of a minority government.

Today’s Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Weekend Australian during the final week of the campaign, shows the Liberal Party ahead of Labor by 52.3 per cent to 47.7 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. This suggests a knife-edge result in marginal seats that will embolden Labor, which hopes to repeat the 2010 election result, when it lost statewide but successfully sandbagged critical marginals.

But Liberal strategists believe Labor will struggle to contain the swing against it in 11 marginal seats it holds on less than 5 per cent, and remain confident of winning the six seats required to form majority government.

If the 0.7 per cent swing identified in today’s Newspoll was applied uniformly, Premier Jay Weatherill would lose his majority in the 47-seat House of Assembly, with three Labor-held seats falling to the opposition.

The Liberals would also likely pick up the independent-held seat of Mt Gambier, but would fall short of winning six seats needed to govern in their own right.

This would result in both major parties being unable to form a majority and needing the support of independents Bob Such and Geoff Brock to govern.

Dr Such is a former Liberal minister, but has been under siege from the party in his southern-suburbs seat of Fisher, which he holds on a very safe 17.4 per cent margin.

Mr Brock, a former mayor of the industrial city of Port Pirie, represents a Liberal-leaning electorate, but is preferencing Labor.

Steven Marshall’s opposition can take some comfort in Labor’s stubbornly low primary vote, unchanged at 34 per cent ”” 3.5 per cent less than at the last election and a low base from which to form government. The ALP’s primary vote has been stuck at 34 per cent or less since March last year.

A dip in the Liberal vote from 44 per cent in last month’s Newspoll to 41 per cent in today’s survey is the main contributor to the narrowed two-party-preferred result, but voters have shifted their primary support to minor parties rather than back to Labor.

In metropolitan Adelaide, where 11 marginal seats are hotly contested, support for Labor is at 37 per cent. This is significantly lower than the 43.3 per cent recorded at the previous election.

The Liberals’ primary vote in metropolitan Adelaide remains relatively unchanged since 2010, at 38 per cent. In regional South Australia, the Liberals’ primary vote is at 50 per cent, compared with Labor’s 24 per cent.

With the final week of the campaign dominated by negative tactics from both sides, Labor’s attacks on Mr Marshall appear to have paid off, with an increase in voter dissatisfaction with his performance, up from 29 per cent last month to 35 per cent.

But the Opposition Leader remains in positive territory, with a net satisfaction rating of 7 per cent.

An equal number of voters are satisfied and dissatisfied with Mr Weatherill’s performance, but the Premier has opened a small lead on the question of who would make the better premier.

Mr Weatherill is judged as preferred premier by 43 per cent of voters, compared with 37 per cent who prefer Mr Marshall. A further 20 per cent are uncommitted.

While the latest Newspoll suggests a minority government is a likely outcome, Liberal strategists are confident that swings in critical marginal seats will be larger, and sufficient for the party to form government in its own right.

Labor sources, however, believe the opposition has struggled in the final week of the campaign, and the government has secured critical momentum.

Primary support for the Greens is steady on 9 per cent, while support for independents and other minor parties is at 16 per cent.

Despite the poll suggesting the result could come down to the wire, voters overwhelmingly (59 per cent) believe the Liberals will win the election.
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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...r-majority-rule/story-e6frgczx-1226855277547#
 
The Libs are struggling here with only a 1.5% swing in their favour. Their seas of Adelaide is in trouble.
 
Something here is going to be hung. Either Steven Marshall or the parliament, or both.
 
The Libs look like hanging on to Adelaide, but overall they aren't going to make it.

Current seat count (ABC) is 22 Labor, 21 Lib and 2 Ind. The remaining 2 seats are slightly in favour of Labor.

Of the 2 independents, one at least has poor relations with the Libs.

It will be either a narrow Labor majority or a Labor/ind minority.
 
drsmith said:
The Libs look like hanging on to Adelaide, but overall they aren't going to make it.

Current seat count (ABC) is 22 Labor, 21 Lib and 2 Ind. The remaining 2 seats are slightly in favour of Labor.

Of the 2 independents, one at least has poor relations with the Libs.

It will be either a narrow Labor majority or a Labor/ind minority.
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It doesn't sound like a heartening win for Labor, given the bad news S.A has had, since the Federal election.
 
Jay Weatherill has already been on the blower trying to contact Frome independent Geoff Brock.
 
In metropolitan Adelaide, where 11 marginal seats are hotly contested, support for Labor is at 37 per cent. This is significantly lower than the 43.3 per cent recorded at the previous election.
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That's not a good result for Labor, but they've done better in SA than anywhere else it would seem.
 
ABC seat count is now 23 Labor, 22 Lib and 2 Ind with no seats in doubt.

There's a large proportion of pre-poll and postal votes to be counted (~160,000) which should favour the Libs based on earlier pre-election polling.

The problem though that the narrowest margin amongst the Labor seats is Colton at 1.2%. It's a big ask for pre-polls and postals to overcome that or greater margins.

Steven Marshall is still a technical chance to govern with the support of both independents, but I didn't find the vibe from Geoff Brock encouraging although Steve did put a good pitch to him in his speech that followed.
 
Smurf1976 said:
That's not a good result for Labor, but they've done better in SA than anywhere else it would seem.
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That was pre-poll voting. The outcome for those seats I imagine would have been better than that based on the overall result.

I suspect it's more a case of the Libs doing worse.
 
drsmith said:
That was pre-poll voting. The outcome for those seats I imagine would have been better than that based on the overall result.

I suspect it's more a case of the Libs doing worse.
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It doesn't sound like it, when taking your previous posts as the status quo.

I personaly haven't followed the S.A elections, other than through your posts.

Maybe a clarification, of why it is a poor result for the Libs, may help
 
drsmith said:
Whether it's 24/21 or 23/22 in favour of Labor, they didn't get a majority in an election that was there's to lose.

That's a poor result.
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Why, when the job loses in S.A car industry, are being attributed to the Libs?

S.A is generally a Labor State, yet after the turmoil in the car manufacturing, they appear to be losing support.

I just can't seem to follow your reasoning.:confused:
 
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