Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

South Australian election 15 March 2014

Jump to new
sptrawler said:
Why, when the job loses in S.A car industry, are being attributed to the Libs?

S.A is generally a Labor State, yet after the turmoil in the car manufacturing, they appear to be losing support.

I just can't seem to follow your reasoning.:confused:
Click to expand...
Labor was in for 12-years (3 terms). What I saw of their campaign was highly negative. They expected to lose although their hopes would have been lifted on Friday with the narrowing showed in Newspoll. This showed through Saturday.

Steven Marshall accidently advised voters to vote for the other crowd on the day before the election. Never a good look and showed how much was feeling the overall pressure. That doesn't inspire confidence in the eyes of the public.

That being said, the Libs did secure a good majority overall vote but it didn't translate into seats. Issues perhaps with how they conducted their campaign in the marginals.

They will need to secure at least 23 seats for any prospect of forming minority government which from here is a very long shot. Independent Bob Such seemed very unimpressed with the Libs campaign tactics against him.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-16/independents-day-in-the-spotlight/5324224

I would rate the Libs chance of forming government at this point at 1 in 10.
 
In the two independent seats, the Libs had much higher primary support than Labor.

In the back of the independent's minds should be the political fate of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott.
 
That's democracy.

SA is a Labor state. Many unionists migrated from the UK to SA when Maggie Thatcher saved Britain from the unions.

It will take a generation or two for them to be otherwise.

Diversity of opinion, particularly political is to be welcomed. It's not a done deal yet that the ALP will govern but looking more likely.

gg
 
According to a survey conducted in the seats held by the two independents, a majority in both electorates want their independent members to back the opposition.....If they don't carry out the wish of their constituents, they may well find them selves without a job come the next election.

It is worthy to note the Liberals gained ground in 3 or 4 seats with postal votes, pre-poll and absentee votes.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...d-in-sa-election/story-fn3dxiwe-1226858412801
 
noco said:
It is worthy to note the Liberals gained ground in 3 or 4 seats with postal votes, pre-poll and absentee votes.
Click to expand...
From the article above, these will be the seats to watch,

In the closest of those, Mitchell, the Liberals extended their lead on Tuesday from 233 votes to 373, while in seats where Labor was ahead, the opposition closed the gap.

In Ashford it reduced the margin from 835 to 661, in Colton from 571 to 440 and in Elder from 746 to 625.
Click to expand...
On those numbers, Colton is the best all be it slim prospect.

As for the two independents, what will they take note of more, Tony Windsor's advice or his fate ?

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...e-party-based-on-policies-20140317-34xv3.html
 
drsmith said:
From the article above, these will be the seats to watch,


On those numbers, Colton is the best all be it slim prospect.

As for the two independents, what will they take note of more, Tony Windsor's advice or his fate ?

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...e-party-based-on-policies-20140317-34xv3.html
Click to expand...


Well if they listen to Oakeshott or Windsor, they will go the same way, next election.

The last government was dumb politics ,that cost us heaps in extra taxes, the only winners were the politicians with their pay rise.
 
drsmith said:
From the article above, these will be the seats to watch,


On those numbers, Colton is the best all be it slim prospect.

As for the two independents, what will they take note of more, Tony Windsor's advice or his fate ?

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...e-party-based-on-policies-20140317-34xv3.html
Click to expand...

I think the two SA independents are weighing up their options very carefully and I doubt they will fall for the same trap as Windsor and Oakshott.

However, there is still a lot of counting to come and anything could happen to either of the major players


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...ve-liberals-hope/story-e6frgczx-1226858612365
 
drsmith said:
Little overall movement today with further counting today reducing Labor's margin in the seat of Colton from 1.2% to 1.1% (440 votes) with 76.1% counted.

The ABC still has it as Labor retain.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/sa-election-2014/guide/colt/

The next significant update to the count will be late Thursday.
Click to expand...
An update to the vote count for Colton with the seat now at 452 votes (1.1%) in favour of Labor with 80% counted.

If we assume 10% of those on the rolls didn't vote, the Libs now need over 70% of the remaining vote (10%) to get over the line.
 
Top