NBN Rollout Scrapped

[sydboy007]

Two more views from outgoing directors. Malcolm Turnbull cops some negative and some positive, but on Labor and Stephen Conroy, the desire to shed the red underpants is increasingly universal.

http://www.afr.com/p/australia2-0/nbn_director_slams_both_conroy_and_QnAV30RjyINrs2UAvaoweO

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...on-quick-return/story-e6frgaif-1226733246783#

Considering how politicised MT made the NBN it's nice of him to decide to take the politics out now. Shame he couldn't bring himself to do it 3 years ago, but then he didn't have a policy till 6 months ago.

Will be interesting to see how they plan to change the rollout schedule to get more money in faster. That would seem to indicate rural areas will get an upgrade at a slower pace than metro areas with poor broadband, though how you determine what areas are poorly served will be a political exercise in itself.

Lets see how long the Nats play nice before we have a petulant "Boom Boom" Barnaby showing how unhappy he is. Any shock jock weddings coming up for him to do some megaphone diplomacy from???

 

[drsmith]

Lets see how long the Nats play nice before we have a petulant "Boom Boom" Barnaby showing how unhappy he is. Any shock jock weddings coming up for him to do some megaphone diplomacy from???

Jeez Syd, I hope you've saved one of these for yourself.

another :topic

It's clear that Labor's one size fits 93% FTTP rollout was political from the start.

 

[drsmith]

In Tasmania, the current rollout does not appear to be going particularly well.

The problem-plagued NBN rollout is almost at a standstill in most parts of Tasmania and Malcolm Turnbull is blaming the former Labor Government.

"The contractor has basically stopped work for several months," said Mr Turnbull.

"There's nothing we could do to slow down the rollout in Tasmania because it has been dead stopped."

While Tasmania's NBN rollout is due to be completed by the end of 20-15, Tony Cook of the Civil Contractors Federation says that deadline is slipping away.

"Totally unachievable and the further that this thing sinks backwards the harder it will be to get contractors to work for them," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-...e-nbn-rollout-in-tasmania/4999570?section=tas

 

[sydboy007]

Jeez Syd, I hope you've saved one of these for yourself.

It's clear that Labor's one size fits 93% FTTP rollout was political from the start.

And the Coalition FTTN was a political response, and still we have none of the transparency that MT has been saying.

Why is maximum cable distance to attain 25 and 50Mbs a state secret? Why have we yet to gain access to all the assumptions on the Coalitions policy that came up with their $29.2B price tag? So far they seem too scared to face any of the scrutiny they focused on the Labor NBN for 3 years.

MT expected quite a bit of information from the previous NBN board, yet so much of the same information is still not available now he's in charge.

Why couldn't he provide the Telecommunications Bluebook un-redacted saving a $2,000 FoI request? Now that would make me believe he was serious about transparency.

Oh, and why appoint a new Chair to the NBN board that is unable to take part in the Telstra negotiations? The single biggest potential cost blow out for the FTTN and Switkowski has be sidelined.

We've also yet to see MT say sorry for being so wrong about the cost of FTTP. All those years banging on about how expensive it was, and NBN has shown, after the steep learning curve, that it's about the same cost as copper to install.

 

[drsmith]

Malcolm Turnbull in the ABC's Insiders program today.

BARRIE CASSIDY: We will go to your portfolio issues now. The NBN. Given the size and scope of that, does that mean the issue will be the biggest challenge for you over the next three years? Inevitably it will dominate what you do?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: It is certainly a very big issue in the portfolio. I hesitate to say it is the biggest, because the minute I say that something else will blow up that will be even bigger, but it is a very big issue.

The Labor Party has left us with a shocking mess there. This project has been going for four years and they've completed less than two per cent of the construction. It has been a shocking exercise in mismanagement right from the conception of it. Anyway, we have a lot of work to do to sort it out and it is under way now.

BARRIE CASSIDY: You have a review under way now, will that slow it down? When will the re view start and how long will it take?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: The review starts on Monday I guess. Ziggy Switkowski, the new executive chairman has only just been appointed after Cabinet on Thursday, and it is due to report in 60 days, on 2 December.

What it is seeking to do, Barrie, is firstly tell us exactly where the project is at the moment. We want no nonsense factual, no spin, where are we now. Then we need to know what it will cost and how long it will take were we to continue it on the specifications the Labor Party had set. Fibre to 93 per cent of the population. That's a very important benchmark.

Then to analyse and assess what are the options for doing it more quickly, completing it more quickly and at less cost, both the taxpayers' and of course more affordably for consumers. After that is complete, we will then know the context, the parameters, within which we can make the policy decisions.

BARRIE CASSIDY: What if it shows if you spend less now, you might have to spend more later on? Are those sorts of outcomes going to be taken seriously by you and the government?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Of course. As a keen student of our broadband policy, you would have noticed there is a lengthy discussion about the time value of money and the whole debate about spending money now to cater for demands that might not arise for 20 years. That's very quantifiable and something that will be a key part of the strategic review that we are talking about right now.

BARRIE CASSIDY: Future broadband requirements, will it look at that as well?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Absolutely. That's a key part of it. In fact, this is something that is being done in a number of markets, to look at broadband demand now and then to analyse it carefully because there has been a lazy assumption that demand for additional higher speeds, for example, line speeds, is just going to increase exponentially. You don't have to reflect on it to realise that can't be right.

You are talking tens of billions of dollars being spent here, you have to focus carefully on demand. If you get these things wrong, you can spend a lot of money you don't need to. In Sydney, think of the cross city tunnel, hundreds of millions of dollars wasted, misspent, when they assumed it was going to have 90,000 cars a day, it only had 30,000. If you get demand forecasts wrong, you can spend a lot of money you don't need to.

BARRIE CASSIDY: As you open up the network to greater competition, what do you say to the Nationals about that and what that implies about the disadvantage for the bush?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Interestingly, Barrie, under our approach, the bush will do much better because there will be much more wire line broadband, so faster broadband and more affordable broadband in the bush for reasons you can only put down to ideology and prejudice.

The Labor Party said fibre to the premises would be the answer for 93 per cent of the population. One of the cut-offs was communities with less than 1,000 premises, 1,000 houses and businesses. There is a lot of country towns that fall into that category and they don't regard themselves as isolated hamlets.

Those country towns are absolutely ideal for the fibre to the node architecture that we will certainly be deploying, the question is how much of it, because those towns have typically got a Telstra exchange connected to fibre, so you can very readily upgrade your service in that country town to very high speed broadband, higher than you can get with wireless, which is all that the Labor Party was going to offer them.

The bush will get better broadband sooner and more affordably under our plan than they would have done under Labor's.

http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2012/s3863199.htm

 

[Calliope]

Malcolm Turnbull in the ABC's Insiders program today.

http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2012/s3863199.htm

I don't think Barrie Cassidy will be asking Turnbull back in a hurry.

 

[overhang]

Malcolm Turnbull in the ABC's Insiders program today.

BARRIE CASSIDY: Future broadband requirements, will it look at that as well?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: Absolutely. That's a key part of it. In fact, this is something that is being done in a number of markets, to look at broadband demand now and then to analyse it carefully because there has been a lazy assumption that demand for additional higher speeds, for example, line speeds, is just going to increase exponentially. You don't have to reflect on it to realise that can't be right.


http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2012/s3863199.htm

My bolds.
It's concerning that MT would make such a judgement when the lazy assumptions are based on data that shows no such decrease in demand for faster speeds. Considering how the internet is evolving to become the main media platform one must expect the demand for high definition media to be the way of the future, considering TV's are now moving to the ultra high definition format then it's only natural that the internet will follow the same path. This high definition media will require FTTP to keep up with demand and most likely the 1gbs that NBN co were implementing. So it seems quite clear the demand for higher speeds will be increasing in the not to distant future. Now one might support the position that it isn't the governments responsibility to build such a service but that's a separate argument.

MALCOLM TURNBULL: so you can very readily upgrade your service in that country town to very high speed broadband, higher than you can get with wireless, which is all that the Labor Party was going to offer them.

Isn't this the same party that suggested wireless was the way of the future while in opposition?

 

[sydboy007]

I love this from MT

The Labor Party said fibre to the premises would be the answer for 93 per cent of the population. One of the cut-offs was communities with less than 1,000 premises, 1,000 houses and businesses. There is a lot of country towns that fall into that category and they don't regard themselves as isolated hamlets.

So he wants to have FTTN in the areas with some of the oldest and least maintained copper. Can't wait to see what the remediation costs are. His 60 day report will hopefully show some real world test results of copper in various areas around Australia so a reasonable guestimate of how much copper will need to be replaced can be done.

I also love the way he argues people don't currently want / want the speed of FTTP, yet the sub 1000 premises towns deserves the highest speeds possible via FTTN. Which is it MT?

 

[drsmith]

What I find encouraging from Malcolm Turnbull is flexibility in approach to deliver the best overall outcome.

What it is seeking to do, Barrie, is firstly tell us exactly where the project is at the moment. We want no nonsense factual, no spin, where are we now. Then we need to know what it will cost and how long it will take were we to continue it on the specifications the Labor Party had set. Fibre to 93 per cent of the population. That's a very important benchmark.

Then to analyse and assess what are the options for doing it more quickly, completing it more quickly and at less cost, both the taxpayers' and of course more affordably for consumers. After that is complete, we will then know the context, the parameters, within which we can make the policy decisions.

That's something Labor and Mr Red Underpants had a lot more difficulty with.

 

[drsmith]

More on the Tasmanian rollout,

Visionstream, a wholly owned subsidiary of Leighton Holdings, secured a $300 million contract in March 2012 to connect around 190,000 homes and businesses to the NBN with fibre optic cabling. But sources close to the project said the company had all but stopped construction work and slashed its Tasmanian NBN workforce from around 550 staff in April 2013 to around 50 full-time employees in late September.

The Australian Financial Review also understands the company asked NBN Co for more money in late August after construction company Silcar ne*gotiated a 20 per cent increase in its NBN contracts. Silcar is also a wholly owned subsidiary of Leighton Holdings. A spokeswoman for Visionstream declined to comment on the Tasmanian situation.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/turnbull_blames_leighton_subsidiary_EldNGORmFBwPJFqCPCjn9L

 

[drsmith]

On the broader issue of cost, it would be interesting to know whether a 20 per cent increase in NBN contracts negotiated by Silcar as outlined in the AFR article above was factored into the June 2013 corporate plan.

 

[NBNMyths]

THE National Broadband Network can be built more quickly and at less cost to taxpayers using the Coalition model, outgoing NBN Co chief executive Mike Quigley conceded as the Abbott government signed off on a radical shake up of the company's board and management.http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...o-head-new-board/story-e6frgaif-1226732614762

Regardless of how the politics plays out from here, it's clear from Mike Quigley himself that Labor's full FTTP rollout was a political objective rather than a practical one.

Not at all. He's just stating the obvious. Quigley has never said FTTP was cheaper or faster to build than FTTN. Nobody has, to my knowledge.

But just because something is cheaper and faster to build doesn't mean it's the best course of action. And it absolutely does not mean it's the best long-term option.

A tent is much cheaper and faster to build than a house.

A dirt road is cheaper and faster to build than an asphalt one.


So why aren't we all living in tents, built alongside dirt roads?

 

[drsmith]

We've been here before, but not all shelters need to be houses and not all roads need to be sealed. A tent is appropriate for a campsite as is a dirt road to that camp site.

This argument's been had and lost by Labor.

Time to move on.

 

[NBNMyths]

We've been here before, but not all shelters need to be houses and not all roads need to be sealed. A tent is appropriate for a campsite as is a dirt road to that camp site.

This argument's been had and lost by Labor.

Time to move on.

Indeed, and the remote "campsite" only had a dirt road and a tent under the ALP policy.

Turnbull, on the other hand, thinks that 77% of Australians only need a tent and a dirt road. Despite the fact that over 60% of NBN fibre subscribers so far have chosen a speed that's in excess of the speed limit on his dirt road. And that's now! Imagine what that percentage will be by 2020. What broadband speed did you have 10 years ago?

 

[drsmith]

Imagine what that percentage will be by 2020.

Not 93% or anything close to that. To continue your analogy, millions would still be out in the weather with no clothes at the pace Labor's rollout was progressing.

With regard to the AFR article above on the Tasmanian rollout, do you have any insight on whether Silcar's negotiated 20 per cent increase in NBN contracts as reported is reflected in the June 2013 corporate plan costs ?

 

[sydboy007]

Not 93% or anything close to that. To continue your analogy, millions would still be out in the weather with no clothes at the pace Labor's rollout was progressing.

With regard to the AFR article above on the Tasmanian rollout, do you have any insight on whether Silcar's negotiated 20 per cent increase in NBN contracts as reported is reflected in the June 2013 corporate plan costs ?

Would it not hit both versions of the NBN?

Or will businesses somehow decide to provide the L=N party a mates rate install?

 

[medicowallet]

Indeed, and the remote "campsite" only had a dirt road and a tent under the ALP policy.

Turnbull, on the other hand, thinks that 77% of Australians only need a tent and a dirt road. Despite the fact that over 60% of NBN fibre subscribers so far have chosen a speed that's in excess of the speed limit on his dirt road. And that's now! Imagine what that percentage will be by 2020. What broadband speed did you have 10 years ago?

If there is a $60 billion difference, then sure, people who only want to camp in their backyard, only need tents (ie download pr0n and pirate dvds)

It is only the businesses that export that need the asphalt for their trucks to get to the port.... you know the ports that could well do with some of that $60 billion cash injection.

The problem with the NBN is that it is being rolled out to everyone, of which a huge majority only needs ADSL.

We could have done this in 10 years time with better, cheaper technology.

MW

 

[sydboy007]

Mr Fraudband caught out telling porkies yet again

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/359925,visionstream-hits-back-at-turnbulls-nbn-stop-work-claim.aspx

 

[NBNMyths]

If there is a $60 billion difference, then sure, people who only want to camp in their backyard, only need tents (ie download pr0n and pirate dvds)

It is only the businesses that export that need the asphalt for their trucks to get to the port.... you know the ports that could well do with some of that $60 billion cash injection.

The problem with the NBN is that it is being rolled out to everyone, of which a huge majority only needs ADSL.

We could have done this in 10 years time with better, cheaper technology.

MW

1. The "$60bn" difference has already been exposed as BS. http://delimiter2.com.au/just-plain-wrong-full-refutation-coalitions-94bn-nbn-costing/

2. Around 60% of NBN signups have already chosen 50/20 and 100/40Mbps speeds. Well above those available on either ADSL or even FTTN. Especially upload (you know, the bit you need for "exporting".)

3. The vast majority of NBN costs are construction, not equipment. So it will be vastly more expensive in 10 years, not cheaper.

 

[NBNMyths]

Not 93% or anything close to that. To continue your analogy, millions would still be out in the weather with no clothes at the pace Labor's rollout was progressing.

With regard to the AFR article above on the Tasmanian rollout, do you have any insight on whether Silcar's negotiated 20 per cent increase in NBN contracts as reported is reflected in the June 2013 corporate plan costs ?

You sure? Would you have said the same thing if someone had told you 10 years ago that most people would have "24Mbps" broadband today?

Given that ~60% of people have already chosen 50/20 or 100/40, what percentage do you think it would be in 2020 if people have the choice?

And more to the point, what percentage would it have to be for you to support the continuation of FTTP?


No idea about Silcar's reported increase being included in the Corp plan or not.