A2B - A2B Australia

[bunyip]

We do whatever works for us. If someone is making money from a method that’s very different to mine, then good luck to him.
Personally I’ve never seen any sense in holding on to dogs for prolonged periods of time, when you could instead have your capital better employed in a stock that’s heading solidly upward.

The market decides the value of a stock. You or I do not. Time and again I’ve known people to buy stocks because they considered them realistic value or undervalued. And time and again I’ve watched those same stocks go down down down.
A mate used to pass on Renee Rivkin’s newsletter to me. Rivkin liked a stock called Pasminco so much that he recommended it in a number of his newsletters as ‘good value at these prices’. Pasminco continued heading south and the company eventually went broke.
A bloke I met at an options night told me he lost ‘well in excess of a six figure sum’ by buying more Pasminco shares every time they fell by another ten percent. He fell into the trap of thinking ‘it has to be good value at these prices, it has to be even better value now that it’s fallen even further. He could have avoided his big loss, and quite likely made substantial profits instead, simply by avoiding a dog like Pasminco and putting his money into some up trending stocks instead.

 

[Smurf1976]

Ah yes, Pasminco.....

If the stock has gone down along with a broader market decline, or one-off events impacting the company, then it may well be a good buying opportunity if the business itself is sound going forward. Timing may not be ideal, but at least you end up owning shares in a sound business that pays dividends and the share price will likely reflect that reality at some future date.

On the other hand, if the stock is dropping because the business is going broke then you sure don't want to be buying into it.

As for CAB, it does bring in a lot of cash but it's the sort of business that doesn't seem to have a sustainable edge in the long term. Taxis and how to pay for and hire them isn't rocket science and in due course it's probable that someone will come up with a better way than Cabcharge or at least directly compete with a similar model. Likewise bus contracts are also a fairly straightforward business that lots of companies could go into if it's profitable enough. So I see CAB as a "good while it lasts, but it won't last forever" type of stock.

 

[galumay]

Well, there you go! Rather proves the point that Bunyip was making and endorses Tin Hat's view that it's a dog.
I'll hold off on the 'amusement' and wish you the best of luck with it.

WOW! Thats a special kind of bitchiness!

I guess you don't like being called out then?

 

[Boggo]

Personally I’ve never seen any sense in holding on to dogs for prolonged periods of time, when you could instead have your capital better employed in a stock that’s heading solidly upward.

The market decides the value of a stock. You or I do not.

Agree entirely.

Looks like someone needs to get this thing a bone and give it a pat.

 

[bunyip]

Agree entirely.

Looks like someone needs to get this thing a bone and give it a pat.

I’ll bet CAB has been a buy recommendation from various brokers and analysts and newsletters all the way down from $14.
They would have called it ‘good value at current prices’!

For the market technicians among you, Boggo’s monthly chart of CAB shows a classic sell pattern after it peaked out above $14.
This pattern was outlined in the book ‘Trader Vic: Methods Of A Wall Street Master’.

http://www.trading-naked.com/123-reversal.htm

Those of you who’ve studied Stan Weinstein’s ‘Secrets For Profiting In Bull And Bear Markets’ will have recognized that Weinstein’s methodology also would have given a timely exit from CAB before the price really collapsed.

 

[Boggo]

I’ll bet CAB has been a buy recommendation from various brokers and analysts and newsletters all the way down from $14.
They would have called it ‘good value at current prices’!

This is from an item published elsewhere in Nov 2012 when the price was already at $4 after it had just dropped from $5.80 in the previous two weeks !
People believe in and invest on the same theory as these guys

This sees JP Morgan's price target cut to $4.20 from $5.49. Macquarie has reacted similarly in cutting its target to $3.00 from $4.50. The consensus price target according to the FNArena database now stands at $4.80, down from $5.27 previously.

 

[Country Lad]

I’ll bet CAB has been a buy recommendation from various brokers and analysts and newsletters all the way down from $14.

Bunyip, you aroused my curiosity. Here is one broker who shall remain nameless.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Julia]

WOW! Thats a special kind of bitchiness!
I guess you don't like being called out then?

Called out on what exactly? And by whom?

I have simply responded in agreement to tinhat's post below:

Piopiou, I read your posts with interest. Look at the chart. Look at a monthly, weekly and daily charts for this stock. It's a dog. No point chasing "value" or yield if the market thinks the stock is a dog and you have to watch the capital value of your investment go down month after month. I haven't analysed this stock from a FA point of view nor analysed the quality of the management to make the transformative changes that are probably required for this company to prosper in the long term. The charts do tell me what the market thinks of this company....

and then offered an old post by Bunyip which I'd found interesting and helpful:

The above reminded me of a post many years back by Bunyip which I've always remembered because it made so much sense and turned me into a trend follower.

We do whatever works for us. If someone is making money from a method that’s very different to mine, then good luck to him.
Personally I’ve never seen any sense in holding on to dogs for prolonged periods of time, when you could instead have your capital better employed in a stock that’s heading solidly upward.

The market decides the value of a stock. You or I do not. Time and again I’ve known people to buy stocks because they considered them realistic value or undervalued. And time and again I’ve watched those same stocks go down down down.
A mate used to pass on Renee Rivkin’s newsletter to me. Rivkin liked a stock called Pasminco so much that he recommended it in a number of his newsletters as ‘good value at these prices’. Pasminco continued heading south and the company eventually went broke.
A bloke I met at an options night told me he lost ‘well in excess of a six figure sum’ by buying more Pasminco shares every time they fell by another ten percent. He fell into the trap of thinking ‘it has to be good value at these prices, it has to be even better value now that it’s fallen even further. He could have avoided his big loss, and quite likely made substantial profits instead, simply by avoiding a dog like Pasminco and putting his money into some up trending stocks instead.

Why have now repeated goes at me, despite my polite request to not continue any exchange, yet not raise a word against either tinhat or Bunyip, both of whose posts I simply agreed with?

If you have decided to continue holding the stock, that's your business. Others are, however, entirely entitled to express an opinion about the stock and the general strategy of holding on to losing stocks. I have no idea why you have chosen to turn such opinions into a personal attack.

 

[galumay]

Called out on what exactly?

Your strawman arguments in the TGA thread.

Why have now repeated goes at me,

Oh, please.

despite my polite request to not continue any exchange,

Actually you didnt request anything of me, you said you were not going to comment anymore.

If you have decided to continue holding the stock, that's your business. Others are, however, entirely entitled to express an opinion about the stock and the general strategy of holding on to losing stocks. I have no idea why you have chosen to turn such opinions into a personal attack.

More strawman nonsense, I have not personally attacked anyone for their opinion about holding this stock, nor have I suggested they are not entitled to hold opinions on this or any other matter.

 

[Boggo]

Your strawman arguments in the TGA thread.

Oh, please.

Actually you didnt request anything of me, you said you were not going to comment anymore.

More strawman nonsense, I have not personally attacked anyone for their opinion about holding this stock, nor have I suggested they are not entitled to hold opinions on this or any other matter.

What's with all this strawman garbage.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=18617&page=52&p=796158&viewfull=1#post796158

If you are going to use the old English term straw man at least understand what it means and spell it correctly, its straw man, two words.

Little knowledge of and misuse of basic terms is the normal behaviour for and aids in the recognition of sciolists, an area where you seem to admirably tick all the boxes.

 

[Smurf1976]

We're talking about opinions here, not hard facts.

Whilst the historic share price and dividends of CAB are a matter of fact, whatever happens in the future most certainly isn't. Whether you think the share price is headed to $1 or $100, that is a matter of opinion based on whatever reasoning is being applied. It certainly isn't a fact, well not unless someone here has either inside information and/or the ability to effectively manipulate the market.

I don't see how anyone could be considered "wrong" or "unreasonable" for expressing an opinion, especially when that opinion is backed with some underlying reasoning. Whether or not anyone else agrees with that opinion, doesn't make it unreasonable as such.

The past ought to be factual but the future is necessarily a matter of opinion with many different possible outcomes. CAB could be bankrupt two years from now, or it could make investors an absolute fortune. Nobody here can say with certainty that either of those two scenarios won't happen.

 

[galumay]

What's with all this strawman garbage.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=18617&page=52&p=796158&viewfull=1#post796158

No garbage, just pointing out where people are using a strawman argument.

If you are going to use the old English term straw man at least understand what it means and spell it correctly, its straw man, two words.

I am not really needing a lesson in the derivation of the term, obviously I understand what it means, sorry for offending the spelling police.

Little knowledge of and misuse of basic terms is the normal behaviour for and aids in the recognition of sciolists, an area where you seem to admirably tick all the boxes.

WOW, is that really called for? Ad hominem attacks usually dont reflect well on the perpertrator.

(there is more than a little sense of irony in one who would see fit to accuse another of being a sciolist.)

 

[bunyip]

Bunyip, you aroused my curiosity. Here is one broker who shall remain nameless.

Cheers
Country Lad

View attachment 54617

This CAB chart with all the buy recommendations as the stock headed south reminds me of the presentation given by Nick Radge at an ATAA meeting in Brisbane.
Nick put up charts of a dozen or so stocks that had been in serious down trends for prolonged periods. On the charts he'd marked numerous points at which several brokers had given buy recommendations.

 

[galumay]

The really scary thing with that chart is that the brokers had picked so many of the peaks! Even with the fall in price over time there were many entry points where good profits could have been made subsequently, but at a glance they seem to have only picked a couple of them.

 

[bunyip]

The really scary thing with that chart is that the brokers had picked so many of the peaks! Even with the fall in price over time there were many entry points where good profits could have been made subsequently, but at a glance they seem to have only picked a couple of them.

Yes, a nimble-footed trader could have found profitable buying opportunities even in that down trending stock.
But just imagine how much more profitable the buys could have been in a stock that was trending consistently upward.

The easiest way to swim as far as possible as quickly as possible is to jump into a strongly flowing river and swim with the current, not against it.

 

[13ugs13unny]

We're talking about opinions here, not hard facts.

The past ought to be factual but the future is necessarily a matter of opinion with many different possible outcomes. CAB could be bankrupt two years from now, or it could make investors an absolute fortune. Nobody here can say with certainty that either of those two scenarios won't happen.

I don't have CAB sharers, but I don't understand the Kerfuffle.

CAB is a payment gateway. Last week a start up online payment gateway called Braintree was bought by ebay for about $800 million dollars. - and that was just a start up.

CAB is a mobile a mobile payment system and a proven one. I don't understand why people are bearish with this stock, might just need some modernising.

 

[craft]

For my approach the best buys are made when the general consensus contradicts my own opinion.
(Of course with the caveat – you have to be right - just contrarian won’t work)

View attachment 54617

Brokers have now gone to a consensus sell.



Chartists are calling it a dog.

Agree entirely.

Looks like someone needs to get this thing a bone and give it a pat.

Boggo on TGA - 26/4/12

Guys, all this banter and posting is irrelevant, one look at a chart and a four year old could tell you what the reality is.

Reality - the price is going down, unless you are short it will cost you money

Forget about other peoples opinions - get an informed one of your own and do it your way – have fun. Personally I find the road less travelled most rewarding.

So long.

 

[sinner]

Guys, all this banter and posting is irrelevant, one look at a chart and a four year old could tell you what the reality is.

Reality - the price is going down, unless you are short it will cost you money

I find it pretty funny that the so called technicians on this site are posting the CAB chart as a big "told you so", but they're actually posting the unadjusted chart, which obviously doesn't take into account dividend or split or anything else. Which is so stupid because if you are short you have to pay the dividend along with the cost of your margin.

One look at the chart and a four year old could tell you that the reality is price has been in a range since the GFC, if you were short all this time then you're hardly a genius of trend following yourself because the downtrend actually ended 4 years ago.

I really wish the divisiveness between so called "value" and so called "technical" traders on this forum would be replaced by something constructive and useful. Of course, on this forum you can't call out a technical trader for being wrong without being accused of being an irrational value investor, nor can you convince a value investor that trend following is a useful technique without being accused of being one of those irrational technical traders

 

[bunyip]

I find it pretty funny that the so called technicians on this site are posting the CAB chart as a big "told you so", but they're actually posting the unadjusted chart, which obviously doesn't take into account dividend or split or anything else. Which is so stupid because if you are short you have to pay the dividend along with the cost of your margin.

I didn’t mention shorting it. I simply stated that your capital could be better employed in up trending stocks rather than being tied up for prolonged periods in dogs.

 

[sinner]

I didn’t mention shorting it. I simply stated that your capital could be better employed in up trending stocks rather than being tied up for prolonged periods in dogs.

bunyip, I wasn't referring to anyone specifically, just railing against this stupid argument once again cropping up on ASF when it was supported by spurious data. However I'd point out that you have not provided any actual quantitative comparison or analysis of any kind to support claims that investing in any one given type of stock is going to return better than investing in any other given type of stock, you merely stated other posters should "imagine" how much more profitable it is.

I am a proponent of quantitative analysis, and generally my testing shows returns for investing in value stocks has a comparable premium to investing in momentum stocks, maybe even stronger in Australia than other markets due to behavioral bias. It also shows that premiums are highest when both trend and valuation signals are favorable. This testing confirms what I have read in many research papers and journal articles.

So what is the point of continuing this silly argument when

a. Technicians on this discussion aren't even using valid data to support their claims
b. Actual testing across large sample size shows comparable (if un-correlated) returns from either strategy
c. Trend and Valuation are only two of a myriad of factors (size, volatility, liquidity, momentum, value, etc) which affect the price of a stock and making the discussion an argument of the two just narrows the discussion down to a boring argument?