NBN Rollout Scrapped

[IFocus]

One would imagine there would be an impact on the project's economics as a result,
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...ew-instructions-to-nbn-co-20130924-hv1so.html

The elephant in the room is the Coalitions allowing competition which will totally destroy the over all return Alan K had some thing to say about it in the Australian

 

[Whiskers]

What we do know is that the project is increasingly not deliverable within the present rollout schedule parameters. One would imagine there would be an impact on the project's economics as a result, but Malcolm was tight lipped on this today when he was asked about the current rollout cost per premise. Public information on this I suspect will have to wait for the outcome of the strategic review.

Meaningful comparisons between FTTP and FTTN will be easier to make after the strategic review is completed. Malcolm Turnbull described himself as a technology agnostic at his presser today, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling out changes to aspects of the Coalition's model either.

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...ew-instructions-to-nbn-co-20130924-hv1so.html

I really feel for MT. I think he's basically a very decent moderate political person. But I get a sense that he has had to move from his natural position and swallow quite a bit more humble pie than he ought, to toe the company line including on the NBN.

He's no dill from a business and legal perspective, so I'm waiting with interest for what a complete overhaul (or not) of all the contractual arrangements including with Telstra reveals. That may well determine the technology issue change (or not).

There's been a lot of huff and puff up to know and this is where the LNP hard liners will inherit ownership for responsibility for any changes.

Abbott originally opposed or had no intention to do anything about many issues until Labor pork barrelled the electorate up so much, that he had to try to match some of the offers. His usual way to get a point of difference is on economics, a promise to do something cheaper.

I've seen it happen all to often where an opposition opposes a bill/law/project for the sake of political expediency knowing they can't stop it, sometimes opposing just to deprive the gov of some oxygen, for taken credit for doing something before they thought of it... then come the day they win gov, ooh it's too costly and complicated to change, so we'll have to just have to live with it.

 

[drsmith]

I really feel for MT. I think he's basically a very decent moderate political person. But I get a sense that he has had to move from his natural position and swallow quite a bit more humble pie than he ought, to toe the company line including on the NBN.

Wishful thinking bearing in mind the rollout delays.

The strategic review will include projections of the rollout under the FTTP model. That in itself will make for interesting reading but in a broader context, it will only add the detail to what we already know.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Malcolm Turnbull's press conference today.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/malcolm-turnbull-details-changes-to-nbn-co-board/4978218

 

[drsmith]

As part of the new statement of expectations issued to NBNCo today, weekly updates are to be provided on the rollout.

http://www.dbcde.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/186115/130924_NBN_Co.pdf

Main NBN page within DBCDE,

http://www.dbcde.gov.au/broadband/n...buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer

ABC 730 segment,

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/government-outlines-cost-and-time-savings-for-nbn/4978942

 

[drsmith]

Sounds like Labor has had to wear a lot of the blame for issues that have been caused by Telstra.

The asbestos issues are not going to magically disappear under the FTTN, though might not be quite as bad if an area doesn't need too much copper remediation.

Lets hope MT has a road to Damascus style convestion in terms of not repealling Labors anti cherry picking laws otherwise the gold rush claims for profitable MDUs will destroy any economics for the NBN in whatever form it takes.

While Telstra are responsible for the physical remediation of their pits and ducts, the problems should have been foreseen by NBNCo and the government.

Asbestos issues obviously won't be as bad under FTTN unless all the copper is replaced.

Perhaps the cherry picking issue illustrates the underlying economics of the NBN. Regardless of whether the return on the government's network is reduced by allowing wholesale competition or NBNCo charges more as a monopoly, the taxpayer/user still ultimately pays.

For many of the issues surrounding the NBN, it's now a wait for the strategic review.

 

[sydboy007]

While Telstra are responsible for the physical remediation of their pits and ducts, the problems should have been foreseen by NBNCo and the government.

Asbestos issues obviously won't be as bad under FTTN unless all the copper is replaced.

Perhaps the cherry picking issue illustrates the underlying economics of the NBN. Regardless of whether the return on the government's network is reduced by allowing wholesale competition or NBNCo charges more as a monopoly, the taxpayer/user still ultimately pays.

For many of the issues surrounding the NBN, it's now a wait for the strategic review.

Wth very large and complex projects a lot of issues are not easily forseeable. Seems Telstra was not very forthcoming with what they knew about how much of an issue asbetsos could be. Changing to a FTTN network design is going to have other unforseeable issues, which will further delay the rollout.

The cherry picking laws are in place for the simple reason that probably 30-40% of the population would not receive any form of broadband upgrade without cross subsidisation. It happens either at the retail level of RSP charges, or it happens by a tax transfer.

If MT removes the ability of NBNCo to do the subsidising of regional areas, then that leaves further pressure on the budget.

 

[So_Cynical]

If MT removes the ability of NBNCo to do the subsidising of regional areas, then that leaves further pressure on the budget.

Without the socialisation, the city subsidising the country...the NBN just doesn't work.

We end up with what we had before, the country gets nothing and the city's everything...it clear that's what the noalition hate about the NBN, the fact that its about equality and quality of service and the money is secondary.

 

[drsmith]

Wth very large and complex projects a lot of issues are not easily forseeable.

It may not be easily foreseeable but the directors and senior executives get the big dollars to see and do what is not easy as do the politicians.

It's barren ground to defend the delays in Labor's FTTP project and has been for some time. Labor had its chance and failed on the delivery. The reviews now under way by the Coalition are the next step in the process and we will obviously have to wait and see to what extent those reviews answer the various discussion points around their rollout as well as the final analysis on labor's.

 

[Smurf1976]

Without the socialisation, the city subsidising the country...the NBN just doesn't work.

It's the same with electricity, roads and many other things. Services in the country are subsidised by city residents. The wealth of the cities largely originates in the country. So it works both ways - each propping up the other in some way.

We'll end up with a situation where, for political reasons, governments are forced to directly subsidise services outside the cities. A classic case of pursuing an ideology which ends up costing government, and thus taxpayers, more in the long term. Just like how electricity concessions (pensioners etc) are now funded directly from taxes - meanwhile the privatised power retailers never did pass on the savings. Once you lose, twice you lose.....

 

[NBNMyths]

While Telstra are responsible for the physical remediation of their pits and ducts, the problems should have been foreseen by NBNCo and the government.

Asbestos issues obviously won't be as bad under FTTN unless all the copper is replaced.

Perhaps the cherry picking issue illustrates the underlying economics of the NBN. Regardless of whether the return on the government's network is reduced by allowing wholesale competition or NBNCo charges more as a monopoly, the taxpayer/user still ultimately pays.

For many of the issues surrounding the NBN, it's now a wait for the strategic review.

The asbestos issue was foreseen, and was mentioned long ago. The issue was that Telstra subcontracted their remediation work, and didn't train the subbies (or verify that they were trained).

Then when it all blew up, they had to pause to sort it out.

There won't be much difference between remediation required for FTTN. If the nodes are every ~300m, then that's the only bit you're not remediating. And you're only not remediating it if no-one in that 300m requests an FTTP upgrade or if not a single pair of copper in that 300m requires replacement.

The cross-subsidy is a standard 'feature' of every single utility network. The copper network, electricity, water, sewer and gas. Why would/should the NBN be any different?

 

[overhang]

So it seems since the MT press conference that NBN co has leaked the draft plan.
"FTTP Access Network cost per premises passed has decreased from an average of $5,000 for the
Tasmanian Pre-Release sites to an Estimate at Completion (EAC) average cost of between $1,100
and $1,400 per premises passed for FSAMs currently under construction for which DDDs are
available."

Interesting they still believe they're inline for a 2021 completion date. Maybe MT's report wont read so bad.

http://mynbn.info/assets/draftcorpplan-2013.pdf

 

[sydboy007]

So it seems since the MT press conference that NBN co has leaked the draft plan.
"FTTP Access Network cost per premises passed has decreased from an average of $5,000 for the
Tasmanian Pre-Release sites to an Estimate at Completion (EAC) average cost of between $1,100
and $1,400 per premises passed for FSAMs currently under construction for which DDDs are
available."

Interesting they still believe they're inline for a 2021 completion date. Maybe MT's report wont read so bad.

http://mynbn.info/assets/draftcorpplan-2013.pdf

If that's correct then that's very good news considering the low population density of Tasmania.

I'd be interested to see what the costs have been on the mainland. I know my parents area in Kiama would probably not be that cheap, well the initial rollout in Minnamurra maybe and Kiama itself, but once you hit Jamberoo which is quite rural the cost would escalate, but then again it might be cheaper when there's not so much other infrastructure around.

I wonder if MT wants good truths, or just the bad ones that further his agenda? How much information that shows what the Coalition said during the election is a lie before the report is determined to be a state / military secret.

 

[drsmith]

The asbestos issue was foreseen, and was mentioned long ago. The issue was that Telstra subcontracted their remediation work, and didn't train the subbies (or verify that they were trained).

Then when it all blew up, they had to pause to sort it out.

The trend from their corporate plan updates is one of ongoing and continual decline in their forecasts.

LEIGH SALES: We've heard a lot about targets and deadlines slipping with the NBN. Were the targets unrealistic all along, or were the targets realistic and the NBN Co management just not up to meeting them?

MALCOLM TURNBULL: I think the targets were essentially political. I don't think they were ever realistic, to be frank with you. You can take two views, I suppose. You can say they were always unrealistic or some people thought they were, with the benefit of hindsight, naively or over optimistically thought they were realistic. But the fact is they've slipped enormously. I mean if you look at the forecast for premises passed by fibre as at June 2014, the end of June 2010 they said there would be 2.7 million premises, in August 2012 they said 1.3 million and then in June they said it would only be 981,000. A figure that Anthony Albanese kept secret. This was in the draft corporate plan that he refused to release, you might remember. And then in their latest forecasts, which is just this month, they've said it will be 729,000. So in the space of a few years the forecast has dropped by nearly 75 per cent.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/malcolm-turnbull-outlines-nbn-review-and-supports/4978948

My bolds.

 

[NBNMyths]

The trend from their corporate plan updates is one of ongoing and continual decline in their forecasts.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/malcolm-turnbull-outlines-nbn-review-and-supports/4978948

My bolds.

As you know, by far the biggest delay was because of the Telstra agreement. They started 9 months late, hence the initial halving of forecasts.

There's no reason why the target can't be met now however, so long as the contractors employ a suitable number of people. It's well within the speed of similar rollouts here and overseas, even allowing for the delays to date:

 

[drsmith]

As you know, by far the biggest delay was because of the Telstra agreement. They started 9 months late, hence the initial halving of forecasts.

There's no reason why the target can't be met now however, so long as the contractors employ a suitable number of people. It's well within the speed of similar rollouts here and overseas, even allowing for the delays to date:

If the fox hadn't stopped to crap and had four extra legs, it would have caught the hare.

10 out of 10 though for wishful thinking.

 

[drsmith]

So it seems since the MT press conference that NBN co has leaked the draft plan.
"FTTP Access Network cost per premises passed has decreased from an average of $5,000 for the
Tasmanian Pre-Release sites to an Estimate at Completion (EAC) average cost of between $1,100
and $1,400 per premises passed for FSAMs currently under construction for which DDDs are
available."

Interesting they still believe they're inline for a 2021 completion date. Maybe MT's report wont read so bad.

http://mynbn.info/assets/draftcorpplan-2013.pdf

That draft is the one Albo sat on during the election campaign and has already been superseded.

I hope they do have costs per premise under control as that will give Malcolm Turnbull more flexibility with the FTTP/FTTN mix.

This though if as reported isn't encouraging,

In another sign of risks to the project, the government has uncovered a $600 million blowout in the cost of the billing and other information systems at the heart of the network, taking computer-system costs to $2.2 billion.

The following was also mentioned in Malcolm Turnbull's brief yesterday,

It has confirmed a backlog of 66,000 premises - including schools and apartment buildings - with "service class zero" because they have fibre cable within reach but cannot use the network.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-turnbull-review/story-e6frgaif-1226726522823

Rollout targets by June 30 2015 and June 30 2016 have also been revised down to 1.74 million and 3.115 million respectively.

 

[drsmith]

Was the NBN ultimately Labor's biggest ever pork barrel ?

The Australian can reveal that, earlier this year, the NBN Co received a letter from its then shareholder ministers - former communications minister Stephen Conroy and finance ministers Penny Wong - with the instruction to have started work in all electorates by mid-2016.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...e-to-all-voters/story-e6frgaif-1226727265180#

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A summary on the numbers that could be maintained FTTP under existing contracts under the Coalition's plan,

It will complete work on connections to 300,000 premises that are already contracted, continue to work on connecting 645,000 premises where plans are advanced, and look for ways to link 66,000 premises including apartment blocks that have been passed by fibre, but not connected.

Work on connecting another 900,000 premises is to be suspended until the strategic review is completed, and the government decides what shape its revised network will take.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/telstra-key-to-stop-nbn-wobbles-20130924-2uc6x.html

 

[sydboy007]

Was the NBN ultimately Labor's biggest ever pork barrel ?

Though far more useful than the Adelaid Darwin rail link

 

[drsmith]

Though far more useful than the Adelaid Darwin rail link

You've got a point there.

Mr Red Underpants and Miss Judas Sisterhood couldn't demand that be in every electorate by a specific date.

 

[sptrawler]

Though far more useful than the Adelaid Darwin rail link

That is debatable, whether you like it or not everything (other than electronic data) is transported.

We move it by road, air, sea or rail. The shortest way from Asia to Adelaide is through Darwin.

If carbon taxing becomes a norm and as you are pro carbon reduction, the Darwin Adelaide rail link becomes essential.
The Adelaide freight movement study, forecasts a threefold increase in freight from WA - Darwin via Adelaide by 2030.

My guess is that is conservative, if weather extremes change as per the greenies, much more freight will be transported overland. Sea transport,especially to Asia will be kept to a minimum distance, just my guess.

As far as the NBN goes, I'm getting a box on the wall.