NBN Rollout Scrapped

[sydboy007]

http://www.computerworld.com.au/arti...ing_standards/

if this is correct, and you'd think that Huwawei have a pretty good idea as being a large vendor of the equipment, then I think MT is in HUGE trouble as the goalposts have moved from max cable run of 500M down to 300M to achieve the 50Mbs target.

Huawei says VDSL2 can achieve speeds of 50Mbps within 300m of the node. Meanwhile, it says VDSL2 that uses vectoring can achieve speeds of 100Mbps within 300m of the node.


Note that for vectoring to work ALL LINES have to be connected to the same node so the anti noise signalling can be done. Will be interesting to see how the moving of all customers onto the node will occur. If some customers are left on ADSL connected to the exchange then any vectoring done will cause their ADSL service to be severely degraded.

Currently Transact in the ACT (bought out by IINet) are the only VDSL2 operators in Australia

http://www.sortius-is-a-geek.com/vds...ond-usability/

TransACT makes no bones about VDSL/VDSL2, showing lacklustre real world speeds of ~6Mbps for VDSL and ~38Mbps for VDSL2. This is a far cry from where the NBN has started (100Mbps), and nowhere near where the NBN is about to be upgraded to (1000Mbps).

----------

Now Vectoring is very new. The equipment vendors only started trialling their equipment with each other to ensure they play nice last year. It's highly unlikly vectoring will be available for the FTTN NBN until 2016-2017, and let me say after a couple of decades in the IT sector, being on the bleeding edge is not where you want a country wide network to be. Vectoring might be more viable from 2018-2019 depending on how fast the equipment vendors are able to get it working in the real world. The world of standards is a very slow process as you have sometimes dozens of companies all with their own agendas competing against each other.

In 10 years of rolling out ADSL and ADSL2+ Telstra has only 58% and 48% respectively of exchanges enabled.

 

[Whiskers]

I'm fearing a monumental stuff up in the making here, a- la the IBM Qld health pay roll mega disaster.

Am I not seeing the same signs of trouble here, namely; A huge highly technical project, attempted to be made better by bringing in new private enterprise to redesign a 'foreign' (as in designed and built by someone else) system to supposedly work better, but ending up with phenomenal cost blowouts largely because the 'new private enterprise' knew it did not know the system well, and knew the politicians who were hell-bent on changing it (despite their own departmental teck staff warning caution) knowing even less, put contractual caveats in place that enabled it to prostitute the contract and plunder the public purse.

Is it worth the risk of an inferior system for the sake of trying to save a bit in relative terms?

 

[drsmith]

http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/entire-nbn-board-resigns-20130922-2u84w.html

NBN board to resign.

MW

Well with the Cherry Picking in play for the cities the NBN is not going to have the income to cross subsidise the country areas without ongoing budget support. Who'd want to be involved with that kind of debacle?

They didn't get up and walk of their own choice.

They were given marching orders.

The ABC has confirmed the board of NBN Co was asked to resign by the Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Mr Turnbull has been severely critical of the board in the past, particularly its chairwoman, Siobhan McKenna, over cost blowouts and delays.

He made the request last week, ahead of a board meeting on Friday.

All but one board member, Brad Orgill, tendered their resignation.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-23/nbn-shell/4976378

 

[Whiskers]

drsmith, does "cost blowouts and delays" imply that there is also a lack of quality of work... or that as reported elsewhere apparently Siobhan McKenna was very hands on and a bit of a pain at checking the work of underlings for correctness which caused cost blowouts and delays?

Is the issue more about cost over runs at the expense of quality, or quality at the expense of cost over runs?

 

[Julia]

drsmith, does "cost blowouts and delays" imply that there is also a lack of quality of work... or that as reported elsewhere apparently Siobhan McKenna was very hands on and a bit of a pain at checking the work of underlings for correctness which caused cost blowouts and delays?

Is the issue more about cost over runs at the expense of quality, or quality at the expense of cost over runs?

Doesn't matter, does it, Whiskers. Whatever, it's entirely the fault of the new government, of course.
No question. They've completely stuffed the country in less than a week.

 

[Whiskers]

Doesn't matter, does it, Whiskers. Whatever, it's entirely the fault of the new government, of course.
No question. They've completely stuffed the country in less than a week.

Hey, c'mon Julia... that comment is more akin to a pretty die-hard true blue blood lib... is that you, really?

I thought you were more 'swinging', or at least more moderate... but given your preference for Abbott somewhere closer to the Big L end of lib over Turnbull, a small L liberal as leader, you may be a big L in disguise!

You'll never find my name firmly planted in the membership roll and devoutly loyal to any party... a local footy or cricket team maybe, but never a political one.

Anyway, it was a simple enough question to clarify an inherent ambiguity and conflict of opinion by political and media commentators.

What's wrong with a bit of constructive 'devils advocate' ? Nothing... in fact there's everything good, even in a healthy well run business, if you are not capable of role switching occasionally to ask the devils advocate questions, you ought to have someone who does if you expect to stay at least one step ahead of the opposition.

Are you in denial that the LNP can't get it wrong or make any bigger stuff up than Labor?

Maybe in clambering across the seas (the kiwi's were sometimes referred to akin to illegal immigrants exploiting our generous bilateral agreements flooding our employment market) to this wonderful land of Aus for a better life than in kiwiland you haven't paid enough attention to local political history.

Oooooh... that was a bit below the belt too... but did I get in a better one than you!?
:couch

Julia, you should have studied up about the Trevor Chapel under arm bowl!

Seriously though, I'm all up for a battle of psychology if that's what you want... but I really prefer some respectable answers to simple questions to help keep the bastards honest.

I note you've had quite a bit to say on the NBN in the past, so I presume you do know something about the technical issues or at least management of it... or has it always been bagging it just because it was initiated by Labor ?

 

[sydboy007]

Doesn't matter, does it, Whiskers. Whatever, it's entirely the fault of the new government, of course.
No question. They've completely stuffed the country in less than a week.

They will have to take ownership of the dramatic slow down in work from now on since it's due to their policy choice. I'm waiting for how MT responds to Huwawei letting the cat out of the bag as to just how close every node is going to have to be for him to achieve his policy goal.

71% of premises will have a node fridge just 300M away from them, or suffer the speeds they are getting in NZ and the UK from their "failed" attempts at FTTN. Even AT&T only offers roughly 30Mbs download speeds.

He's yet to mention that EVERYONE will have to have their services migrated to the node fridge at the same time, which is going to be a regulatory nightmare.

 

[drsmith]

Doesn't matter, does it, Whiskers. Whatever, it's entirely the fault of the new government, of course.
No question. They've completely stuffed the country in less than a week.

With Labor, it's always someone else's fault. They're like the child caught with one hand in the cookie jar and trying to point a finger on the other towards someone else.

Like with the Coalition's revision of announcing individual boat arrival announcements to weekly briefings, there's a the usual unnecessary hyperventilation from those whose political side lost the election.

On the rollout itself, there are now media reports suggesting the rollout by June 30 2014 could now be as low as 600,000.

It is understood the NBN rollout will fall significantly short of its target set in August last year to run fibre past 1.31 million premises by the end of this financial year. The number of existing premises to be passed is now believed to be as low as 600,000.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ind-board-purge/story-e6frgaif-1226725623661#

 

[drsmith]

Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull will spell out the Abbott government's initial plans for NBN Co on Tuesday afternoon.

Mr Turnbull will release an "interim statement of expectations" at a media conference in Sydney at 2pm (AEST).

http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/br...-to-release-nbn-statement-20130924-2ub82.html

 

[Whiskers]

With Labor, it's always someone else's fault. They're like the child caught with one hand in the cookie jar and trying to point a finger on the other towards someone else.

Like with the Coalition's revision of announcing individual boat arrival announcements to weekly briefings, there's a the usual unnecessary hyperventilation from those whose political side lost the election.

On the rollout itself, there are now media reports suggesting the rollout by June 30 2014 could now be as low as 600,000.



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ind-board-purge/story-e6frgaif-1226725623661#

drsmith, have you ever quoted to do a job like you have never done before, or even a completely novel job that there were no precedents to draw estimates for you quote from?

How much did it estimate to travel to the moon first and how much did it actually cost? Was it worth it in the end?

How many of the initial tunnel projects in recent years estimated one thing and ended up costing more? Were they worth it in the end? I suspect some yes, some no.

Have you ever worked in a supervisory position on a major project? What kind of things crop up in construction that for one reason or another were not foreseen or costed in the original estimate?

The obvious point I'm questioning here is... is your basis of criticism simply that the costs exceed the estimates? Is that good grounds for canning a project? What is the net effect on the overall project cost benefit analysis?

There may be good reason to modify the project and toss the board... I don't know... BUT what I do know is you and a couple of others are not giving sound technical or business reasons to accompany your critique... which seems pretty much on political ideological grounds.

drsmith, while the slogans and clichés are loyal and funny to a point... a bit of substance would be nice for a change.

 

[drsmith]

drsmith, have you ever quoted to do a job like you have never done before, or even a completely novel job that there were no precedents to draw estimates for you quote from?

Have you? and if you wish to be an oracle of enlightenment, perhaps you could provide the answers to the questions you ask in the above post.

My criticism of Labor's NBN is that within the parameters given, it was fantasy. I wish it wasn't but it is and the ongoing setbacks the project has endured only serves to demonstrate that point.

 

[Whiskers]

Have you? and if you wish to be an oracle of enlightenment, perhaps you could provide the answers to the questions you ask in the above post.

So am I correct in saying you have never done a quote for a job and don't venture into the unknown and probably have never run a business?

For those of us who have, my questions to you are some basic indications of the complexities that your slogans fail to comprehend.

My criticism of Labor's NBN is that within the parameters given, it was fantasy. I wish it wasn't but it is and the ongoing setbacks the project has endured only serves to demonstrate that point.

Ok, that's a fair enough 'headline' statement. But as in a business plan or critique thereof, where are your details of some of the specific issues.

I would clarify that for me the NBN is not an issue one way or the other for me so far in the sense that it's not something that is going to benefit me any time soon. It's been a bit like public health care, emergency services and public roads... we have to have them and keep up to date, even if many of us don't use them.

 

[Julia]

Hey, c'mon Julia... that comment is more akin to a pretty die-hard true blue blood lib... is that you, really?

I thought you were more 'swinging', or at least more moderate... but given your preference for Abbott somewhere closer to the Big L end of lib over Turnbull, a small L liberal as leader, you may be a big L in disguise!

Look Whiskers, I'm just a bit tired of your ranting. And, despite your continued provocation, I have no interest in engaging in a counterproductive jousting with you.
I voted for the Coalition. I would probably have voted for almost anyone to get rid of Labor.
That is not to say I regard Mr Abbott or his team as especially capable of wondrous feats.
As did many others, I regarded him as the least worst alternative.

So kindly desist from attempting to paint me as some sort of uncritical devotee of the new PM. I am simply prepared to give the new government a chance to show how they can manage things, and that's all I'm asking you or anyone else to do, rather than rant on incessantly about everything you can find on which to offer criticism.

Are you in denial that the LNP can't get it wrong or make any bigger stuff up than Labor?

I'm not 'in denial' or in acceptance of anything at this early stage. Time will tell.

Maybe in clambering across the seas (the kiwi's were sometimes referred to akin to illegal immigrants exploiting our generous bilateral agreements flooding our employment market) to this wonderful land of Aus for a better life than in kiwiland you haven't paid enough attention to local political history.

Oooooh... that was a bit below the belt too... but did I get in a better one than you!?
:couch

Julia, you should have studied up about the Trevor Chapel under arm bowl!

The relevance of the above is not apparent to me. I've lived here for 20 years, have experienced different governments in that time, have voted for both major parties, and am at present simply glad that the Labor circus is gone and prepared to wait to see how the Coalition performs.

I note you've had quite a bit to say on the NBN in the past,

Have I? Perhaps you'd like to quote the relevant posts. As far as I can recall my commentary on it has been minimal. I don't often even read the thread.

 

[drsmith]

On the rollout itself, there are now media reports suggesting the rollout by June 30 2014 could now be as low as 600,000.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ind-board-purge/story-e6frgaif-1226725623661#

With regard to the figure above, Malcolm Turnbull in his presser today has confirmed that the rollout target for the above date has been reduced by almost half when compared to that given a few months ago.

 

[drsmith]

If the revised numbers in the Fairfax press are correct, the rollout target to June 30 2015 has also been halved from the 3,500,000 in the August 2012 NBN corporate plan.

Forecasts for the number of premises passed by fibre cable have been revised down.

The figure is expected to be 729,000 by June 30, 2014, 1.74 million by June 20, 2015, and 3.115 million by June 30, 2016.

It was originally expected in the 2010 NBN corporate plan that 5.65 million premises would be passed by mid-2016.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/turnbull-gives-nbn-new-directions-20130924-2ubg9.html

 

[sydboy007]

Anyone who thinks Telstra can ride in to save the day might want to think twice.

From one of our field techs at work:

Gosnells WA Telstra exchange

All three installed Alcatel rectifiers that feed the exchange batteries failed. The reason cannot be identified but it was thought the batteries had aged (9 years) and gone into thermal runaway causing the rectifiers to go into overload. Since there was no LV disconnect on the rectifiers (Telstra don’t use LV disconnect!) the batteries continued to discharge making it harder for the rectifiers to re charge the batteries. When I arrived, the battery voltage was at about 35v meaning the current required to maintain the exchange and charge the batteries, exceeded the rectifier output causing it to overload.

CPS arrived in the afternoon and installed 4 x temporary 200A rectifiers and a 500A battery bank. This was connected to the exchange at approx. 5.45 PM and service was restored.

It was mentioned that no spares are available in Australia, for the onsite rectifiers and parts would have to be sourced from the US. I don’t know what Telstra aim to do to repair the rectifiers but the old batteries will need to be replaced.

The batteries were so hot and bloated you could hear the plastic cracking (see photo of the cracks around the battery terminal).

One bank of batteries seemed OK and CPS were going to charge these separately overnight and add them to the temporary 500A bank today.

----------------------

Lets hope the Fridge Node batteries are maintained better otherwise we'll be seeign the odd explosion / fire

 

[overhang]

If the revised numbers in the Fairfax press are correct, the rollout target to June 30 2015 has also been halved from the 3,500,000 in the August 2012 NBN corporate plan.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/turnbull-gives-nbn-new-directions-20130924-2ubg9.html

It certainly doesn't look good, the only positive being that the take up rate on the most expensive and profitable 100mbs plan has exceeded expectations which may offset some of the costs for these delays. There is no doubt there is/will be time and cost blowouts and I'm not sure at what point this becomes excessive but obviously if the taxpayer input becomes substantially more than forecasted then we would need to look at other models but considering this is a self sufficient funding model then hopefully that wouldn't be the case.

But the question is at what point do we ever replace the old copper? It's an old redundant technology that would make no business sense in replacing and considering Telstra told shareholders that ADSL was abstracting the last bit of life out of the aging copper I don't think they're planning on replacing it. Now given the announcements in the past week from TPG announcing they plan on rolling out fibre to the most profitable sector (multi residential apartments) we are already seeing the digital divide begin under the FTTN. The concern is that once the private sector goes so far there will be no going back, the government will never get the support to roll out FTTP to outer suburbs and regional areas as they wont have these profitable sectors to ensure financial viability. The copper must be replaced at some stage and now is the most suitable time to do it as a national infrastructure project, after this it becomes incredibly messy but the short sited coalition government don't care about this.

 

[drsmith]

It certainly doesn't look good, the only positive being that the take up rate on the most expensive and profitable 100mbs plan has exceeded expectations which may offset some of the costs for these delays. There is no doubt there is/will be time and cost blowouts and I'm not sure at what point this becomes excessive but obviously if the taxpayer input becomes substantially more than forecasted then we would need to look at other models but considering this is a self sufficient funding model then hopefully that wouldn't be the case.

But the question is at what point do we ever replace the old copper? It's an old redundant technology that would make no business sense in replacing and considering Telstra told shareholders that ADSL was abstracting the last bit of life out of the aging copper I don't think they're planning on replacing it. Now given the announcements in the past week from TPG announcing they plan on rolling out fibre to the most profitable sector (multi residential apartments) we are already seeing the digital divide begin under the FTTN. The concern is that once the private sector goes so far there will be no going back, the government will never get the support to roll out FTTP to outer suburbs and regional areas as they wont have these profitable sectors to ensure financial viability. The copper must be replaced at some stage and now is the most suitable time to do it as a national infrastructure project, after this it becomes incredibly messy but the short sited coalition government don't care about this.

What we do know is that the project is increasingly not deliverable within the present rollout schedule parameters. One would imagine there would be an impact on the project's economics as a result, but Malcolm was tight lipped on this today when he was asked about the current rollout cost per premise. Public information on this I suspect will have to wait for the outcome of the strategic review.

Meaningful comparisons between FTTP and FTTN will be easier to make after the strategic review is completed. Malcolm Turnbull described himself as a technology agnostic at his presser today, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling out changes to aspects of the Coalition's model either.

On the topic of numbers, the Fairfax press fills in a little more detail on the rollout numbers to June 30 2014.

Mr Tunbull said NBN Co told the government was revising down its target for premises passed at June 30, 2014 from 981,000 to 729,000. A spokesman for NBN Co said this latest revision ''reflects the impact of Telstra's five-month remediation stoppage''. Telstra halted remediation work on its infrastructure in May after unions raised concerns about contractors working with asbestos without proper training or protective equipment.

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...ew-instructions-to-nbn-co-20130924-hv1so.html

 

[sydboy007]

On the topic of numbers, the Fairfax press fills in a little more detail on the rollout numbers to June 30 2014.

http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/govern...ew-instructions-to-nbn-co-20130924-hv1so.html

Sounds like Labor has had to wear a lot of the blame for issues that have been caused by Telstra.

The asbestos issues are not going to magically disappear under the FTTN, though might not be quite as bad if an area doesn't need too much copper remediation.

Lets hope MT has a road to Damascus style convestion in terms of not repealling Labors anti cherry picking laws otherwise the gold rush claims for profitable MDUs will destroy any economics for the NBN in whatever form it takes.

 

[moXJO]

So am I correct in saying you have never done a quote for a job and don't venture into the unknown and probably have never run a business?
.

I have plenty of times but whats your point.
They have a whole team working on pricing with a % for blow outs. God Id love to rock up and say here is a quote for an open ended amount and no solid finish date or quality control.
Labor seems to have worked off the cheap end of the scale when they blurted out the original amount. It was never going to happen.