Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

2013 Federal Election: 7 September 2013

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Whiskers said:
That's exactly why I'm a bit nervous! It seems a forgone conclusion such as the demise of NSW and Qld Labor... but Rudd at least did facilitate some fundamental change in Labor internal practices and policy, where the state's failed to do.

Given that neither Abbot or Rudd is highly respected or trusted, the fear that the LNP might win control of both houses again and force through unpalatable change, a-la workchoices, asset sales and severe spending cuts, might cause a late counter swing to the 'reformed' Rudd, the lesser of two evils, which might over correct to prevent LNP control of both houses and inadvertently vote Rudd back.

The other factor is the historic high number of minor parties, where their preferences will go and who they will support on key policies.

I just have a bit of a concern with the LNP not putting their most popular (and arguably most respected) leader to the public and they haven't played their most respectful and strongest policy hand.
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Whiskers, it is generally acknowledged that Abbott has been a highly effective opposition leader and probably that is why so many attacks have been made against him personally. He's clearly not a misogynist and yet I heard him say recently that he noticed Julia Gillard in an airport (I think) and he went up to her and acknowledged kindly it had been a bit rough lately. I think I heard that on the Kitchen Cabinet Show. After the way she persistently slimed him, it shows the strength of character he has to acknowledge her when she was going through something tough, imo.

He has run a well disciplined campaign, albeit with the odd minor stuff up, but it has overall been a well oiled and planned machine. Totally in a different league to Rudd's shooting from the hip, policies on the run and making nonsense up about the opposition.

If you are referring to Turnbull, I don't know that he could have pulled this off against Rudd. His own polling when Rudd and he were leaders was going down dismally (see newspoll archives). After Abbott took over, the preferred PM figures started improving for Abbott compared to Turnbull and the polls for the libs began to overtake labor and have been pretty consistently in front ever since.

I have been unsure how Abbott would transition from opposition leader, but he has gained respect from me during this campaign with very little negative coming from him about Rudd. It seems he has already started to move out of the negativity required in opposition to a more positive potential PM.

Interestingly, it is Rudd who has behaved more like an opposition leader with so much negativity while Abbott has been the positive leader. And labor gave in to the popularity contest and brought the previously popular Rudd back as leader and look at where that's got them. I am glad the libs did not play musical leaders game!
 
tech/a said:
View attachment 54277


Fat lady has been singing for weeks and has left the building.
Abbott will smash Rudd and Rudd will lose his own seat.
20 seat loss min.

You heard it first from the DUCK!
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First?

This has been obvious for some time. I spoke to Glasson and his mob two weeks ago.... reckoned they were going to roll KRudd then.

I hope the prophecy comes to pass, it will be an event worthy of literature.
 
The most interesting number to watch will be the primary vote to the two main parties. It could go under 80% for the first time in a long time. It will highlight just how dissatisfied so many are, myself included, with the choice presented this election.
 
McLovin said:
The most interesting number to watch will be the primary vote to the two main parties. It could go under 80% for the first time in a long time. It will highlight just how dissatisfied so many are, myself included, with the choice presented this election.
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In a nutshell, that's it!

It's a bit reminiscent of, way back when, Don Chip started the Democrats. Similarly, when Hansen started One Nation... when there is considerable dissatisfaction with the big two, there is typically an initial considerable swing away from the big two towards promising new blood and out of the rut of either of the big two party machines.

I can't help but note; There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics... and Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.

Further; The TPP assumes a two-party system, i.e. that after distribution of votes from less successful candidates, the two remaining candidates will be from the two major parties.

Note the assumption, preference flow based on 2010 election. Are all the polls using same assumption?

Given the considerably changed party and candidate paradigm since 2010, how valid are the polls!?


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling
NEWSPOLL STATISTICS: Sample size: 1112 | Uncomitted: 6.00% | Refused: 3.00% | Error Rate: 3.00%
 

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This is what Turnbull has to say on Direct Action, oops I mean alternatives to an ETS:

Because most capital equipment, especially in the energy sector, has lives running into many decades, the business is going to require assurance that the government subsidy will match the life of the asset – so running well beyond 2020.

Which is why a subsidy scheme which terminates in 2020 will achieve very little….

Having the government pick projects for subsidy is a recipe for fiscal recklessness on a grand scale and there will always be a temptation for projects to be selected for their political appeal.

In short, having the government pay for emissions abatement, as opposed to the polluting industries themselves, is a slippery slope which can only result in higher taxes and more costly and less effective abatement of emissions.

-----------------

However, if a scheme operates whereby the government pays the firm to reduce its emissions intensity, leaving aside its impact on the budget and taxes, there is firstly going to be a substantial and contentious debate about what the correct baseline is, then whether it will be actually be reduced.

… Arguments, of considerable ferocity, will arise as to whether a new piece of equipment would have been bought anyway with the risk that the government ends up funnelling billions of dollars to companies to subsidise their profits without achieving any real additional cuts in emissions.

Now, all of us know in this House that industries and businesses, attended by an army of lobbyists, are particularly persuasive and all too effective at getting their sticky fingers into the taxpayer's pocket.

----------------

I wonder what's made Abbott think it will be any different (beside become opposition leader)???
 
AU Federal Election 2013

Here's a snapshot of the Australian Federal Election 2013 from Betfair.


AU_FederalElection2013.jpg

Betfair market seems too optimistic on Tony Abbot, and his big trump card is elimination of Carbon Tax and scraping Mining Tax.

Judging by these facts and market sentiments, I want to check if the stock price of leading O&G, and Mining companies will sore during the weekend and open with big spike on Monday's opening bell should Tony Abbot win the election.

Does anyone know where I can get a price check of all leading listed companies in O&G sector, & Mining sector.
Can anybody recommend where I might be able to pull the stock price of all companies in these sectors?

I tried asx.com.au but no luck. ADVFN_AU doesn't offer free delayed data either. Doing it manually via yahoo/google finance will take ages.

Also, what do traders/investors on this forum think about how the outcome of the election could influence the price of O&G stocks, and Mining Stocks over this weekend?
 
wayneL said:
First?

This has been obvious for some time. I spoke to Glasson and his mob two weeks ago.... reckoned they were going to roll KRudd then.

I hope the prophecy comes to pass, it will be an event worthy of literature.
Click to expand...

Fat lady will not sing until 6pm tomorrow. By 6.45pm I reckon tech's prophesy will have come to fruition. I would not celebrate until then, but what a celebration it will be.

gg
 
Re: AU Federal Election 2013

Shouldn't be much effect on the markets either way as a coalition win is effectively a given.

What will be interesting is any policy shifts and Tony Abbott ® surprises that come out post election.

Also, Markets are closed wkends!
 
At the start of the campaign, I thought 45 to 55% 2PP to the Coalition. Nail me down now to a specific number and I'll say 55%.

It's time to start blowing up the balloons. :D
 
Who do you all reckon will be the deputy Prime-minster should Tony win? Turnbull?:confused:

Sorry for my ignorance i really have no idea...:eek:
 
noco said:
Julia, I can see you don't like to beaten so I will let have the last word just to make you happy.
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On the contrary, I'm always happy to acknowledge if I'm wrong and have no need for, as you put it, the last word. By all means, tell me (and bellenuit who has made the same point) where we err. I await your correction with interest.

sails said:
Whiskers, it is generally acknowledged that Abbott has been a highly effective opposition leader and probably that is why so many attacks have been made against him personally. He's clearly not a misogynist and yet I heard him say recently that he noticed Julia Gillard in an airport (I think) and he went up to her and acknowledged kindly it had been a bit rough lately. I think I heard that on the Kitchen Cabinet Show. After the way she persistently slimed him, it shows the strength of character he has to acknowledge her when she was going through something tough, imo.

He has run a well disciplined campaign, albeit with the odd minor stuff up, but it has overall been a well oiled and planned machine. Totally in a different league to Rudd's shooting from the hip, policies on the run and making nonsense up about the opposition.

If you are referring to Turnbull, I don't know that he could have pulled this off against Rudd. His own polling when Rudd and he were leaders was going down dismally (see newspoll archives). After Abbott took over, the preferred PM figures started improving for Abbott compared to Turnbull and the polls for the libs began to overtake labor and have been pretty consistently in front ever since.

I have been unsure how Abbott would transition from opposition leader, but he has gained respect from me during this campaign with very little negative coming from him about Rudd. It seems he has already started to move out of the negativity required in opposition to a more positive potential PM.

Interestingly, it is Rudd who has behaved more like an opposition leader with so much negativity while Abbott has been the positive leader. And labor gave in to the popularity contest and brought the previously popular Rudd back as leader and look at where that's got them. I am glad the libs did not play musical leaders game!
Click to expand...
Great post, sails. You've said all I'd like to have and much better.
 
Re: AU Federal Election 2013

skyQuake said:
Shouldn't be much effect on the markets either way as a coalition win is effectively a given.
Click to expand...

I'll just observe that at least three significant operators in the electricity industry have been assuming a Coalition win for over 12 months. All three are large scale generators of electricity in their respective states, and all have adjusted their physical operations on the assumption of a Coalition win and repeal of the carbon tax (general assumption being that the tax would remain in place until 30 June 2014). There are probably others who have taken the same approach, but in the case of these 3 it is very obvious to those in the industry what is going on and the companies have actually gone as far as contracting with their rivals to make it work (and yes such arrangements are perfectly legal).

I'd take a guess that most others affected by the carbon and mining taxes would be doing the same at least in terms of planning future operations (not necessarily affecting current operations - the ability to do that is somewhat unique to a few specific electricity companies) and that the market has likely factored this into share prices already.

I think the market would react far more strongly if the Coalition doesn't win a majority, even more if the Greens end up holding the balance of power in a hung parliament.

That said, the Senate is also a very relevant factor in all of this - it's one thing for the Coalition to want to change taxation policy but another thing entirely to get that past the Senate. That could lead to some interesting times ahead.....
 
Re: AU Federal Election 2013

I certainly hope a MOD will move this to the appropriate thread.
 
drsmith said:
The latest Age/Nielsen survey suggests 54 per cent of the nation's 14.7 million electors are embracing the Coalition.

Labor's primary vote has slumped to 33 per cent, with the Coalition on 46 per cent

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ll-confirms-labor-wipeout-20130906-2taew.html
Click to expand...

The Guardian's poll result is interesting. It is way out of kilter with what the others are indicating.

Labor gains ground on Coalition, says new mobile-only poll

Guardian Lonergan poll points to Coalition win but two-party preferred vote narrows to 50.8% to 49.2%

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/06/two-party-preferred-vote-narrows
 
bellenuit said:
The Guardian's poll result is interesting. It is way out of kilter with what the others are indicating.

Labor gains ground on Coalition, says new mobile-only poll

Guardian Lonergan poll points to Coalition win but two-party preferred vote narrows to 50.8% to 49.2%

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/06/two-party-preferred-vote-narrows
Click to expand...


Not long to wait now and we will get the poll that really matters and then we will know how accurate this one might have been. Allr pollsters presumably will be extremely careful so close to an election as they all want the reputation of being within a certain margin so it is strange that the Guardian's poll is so far out from the others.
 

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