BLY - Boart Longyear Group

[odds-on]

The lower the price goes the more attention BLY is going to get, and as long as the facts have not changed it will eventually get priced rationally. In the meantime, batten down the storm hatches and wait out a few weeks...

Hold at $0.96. If drops to $0.60 i will average down.

Cheers

 

[JTLP]

Macquarie have come on board as a substantial holder - 5% - and another Canadian group have been picking up a few shares recently.

Do they see something we don't? I'll be interested to see if people are willing to hold into the weekend...

 

[ROE]

I'd agree this is getting a bit irrational. ASL downgraded yesterday but the numbers weren't disasterous. BLY was 54c at the bottom of the GFC whil faced with real chance of extinction. Now they are looking at some lean years but hardly an extinction event.

There's probably a short term trade in there somewhere, and a probably a long term hold as well. But you really need some decent balls to buy in the face of a mad crowd.

I bought and I bought a lot that my game I buy without fear when I think the stock offer good upside ... the possibility of making 30-40% on this stock isn't too far reaching from my average price....

the probability not only lies in capital gain but potentially good dividend too for the price it trading around 80ish

it is not a stock I hold a long time like many other stocks, probably as soon as I make decent profit I'm out

I think people afraid of their few hundred mill of debt but BLY debt is bloody cheap...their draw on debt is 200bsp on USD 90 days bill, cheaper than what you can get deposit from the big banks.....

so their debt burden is easily carry unless you think the USD 90 days bill going to increase
aggressively in the next 24 months....unlikely when US is in deflation and craw at turtle speed with inflation...

 

[ROE]

Macquarie have come on board as a substantial holder - 5% - and another Canadian group have been picking up a few shares recently.

Do they see something we don't? I'll be interested to see if people are willing to hold into the weekend...

Found Goodman mob interesting, haven't seen a fund manager who aggressively average down and I have no idea when they stop buying if price keep dropping because they keep buying.....they now hold over 10% of BLY

their BLY lies in the same basket case as Microsoft, Halliburton and wells Fargo and I would own all these three stocks if I was to live in the US as well...

 

[odds-on]

The lower the price goes the more attention BLY is going to get, and as long as the facts have not changed it will eventually get priced rationally. In the meantime, batten down the storm hatches and wait out a few weeks...

Hold at $0.96. If drops to $0.60 i will average down.

Cheers

After some pondering over a cup of tea and a biscuit, I decided to exit my BLY position today at $1.02 for a small profit. The steep price drop in ASL over the last few weeks makes it a far more attractive bet compared to BLY. BLY out ASL in - hopefully this will play out like before Xmas.

Going to keep my eye on BLY.

Cheers

 

[bobaom]

After some pondering over a cup of tea and a biscuit, I decided to exit my BLY position today at $1.02 for a small profit. The steep price drop in ASL over the last few weeks makes it a far more attractive bet compared to BLY. BLY out ASL in - hopefully this will play out like before Xmas.

Going to keep my eye on BLY.

Cheers

Good call. I held, I regret.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

After some pondering over a cup of tea and a biscuit, I decided to exit my BLY position today at $1.02 for a small profit. The steep price drop in ASL over the last few weeks makes it a far more attractive bet compared to BLY. BLY out ASL in - hopefully this will play out like before Xmas.

Going to keep my eye on BLY.

Cheers

Cup of tea in hand here, and I reckon it's shaping up for a strong one-day move to 81c. But when? Too far away from the trendline today, and the 6% move will probably get sold off after tomorrow's open. Maybe next Monday....?

:microwave

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Same shape in OZL and AGO. They might follow it.

 

[rbgmauq]

BLY could be providing a bottoming pattern. Strong technical buying signal, six months target: 1.268

 

[pixel]

BLY reappeared today as one of my midday scan results.



Primary resistance 78.5, but if that is broken, it should head North of $1.

 

[Country Lad]

Primary resistance 78.5, but if that is broken, it should head North of $1.

Could be an interesting little double bottom which will be confirmed if it breaks your 78.5. DBs have a high failure rate unless they break up, particularly short term ones like this, so I would wait for the confirmation if I were to buy these.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Could be an interesting little double bottom which will be confirmed if it breaks your 78.5. DBs have a high failure rate unless they break up, particularly short term ones like this, so I would wait for the confirmation if I were to buy these.

Cheers
Country Lad

Of course they have a high failure rate if they don't break out. That's like saying that stocks that don't go up on a given day have a high rate of going down.

 

[Country Lad]

Of course they have a high failure rate if they don't break out. That's like saying that stocks that don't go up on a given day have a high rate of going down.

I will ignore the unnecessary smart ar$e part of your post.

All too often we see (including here) people calling a pattern like BLY as a double bottom before it breaks above the intermediate high, in this case 78.5. To be pedantic, it is not a double bottom until it breaks the high regardless of how good it looks, then it has only a 3% failure rate of a rise between 20% and 30%.

Calling it a double bottom before the break, as people are apt to do, comes with a failure rate of 64%.

Now, can we get back to BLY?

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[pixel]

Could be an interesting little double bottom which will be confirmed if it breaks your 78.5. DBs have a high failure rate unless they break up, particularly short term ones like this, so I would wait for the confirmation if I were to buy these.

Cheers
Country Lad

Totally agree, CL; I wouldn't even call it a DB until after the breakout. (Sometimes I'm sloppy and talk about a "potential DB", which I take your "Could be" to imply as well.)

The scan I was running doesn't even recognise DB's. It looks for drawn-out slides with high volume and a change of momentum in short-period MACD.



If I weren't as spoiled for choice as I was today, I might have risked an early Intraday entry with a very tight stop loss



e.g. buy 71 today with stop a tick under 70c.

 

[hnagpal]

BLY - Grab this stock above 0.7525. All set to move to 0.890 - 0.970 levels soon

 

[CanOz]

BLY - Grab this stock above 0.7525. All set to move to 0.890 - 0.970 levels soon

On the basis of what analysis are you forecasting this move?

 

[Country Lad]

BLY - Grab this stock above 0.7525. All set to move to 0.890 - 0.970 levels soon

AAX - Worst seems to be over in this stock. A close above the resistance level of 2.265 will be very positive and will see 2.660-2.750 levels soon.

An explanation behind these two posts would be appropriate, like a justification for the statements and/or charts otherwise they are just ramping. Particularly your "grab" BLY as it disagrees with other posters who say wait till 78.5 so why do you disagree?

Cheers
Country Lad

PS you beat me to it CanOz. Looks like ramping to me.

 

[Country Lad]

Totally agree, CL; I wouldn't even call it a DB until after the breakout.

A good example of a double bottom that isn't.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[skc]

...no its EBITDA interest cover is 12-13 times
can take a fair bit of beating on earning....their cost initiate should paid off
in the next 6-12 months and stop outflow

BLY was 54c at the bottom of the GFC whil faced with real chance of extinction. Now they are looking at some lean years but hardly an extinction event.

There's probably a short term trade in there somewhere, and a probably a long term hold as well. But you really need some decent balls to buy in the face of a mad crowd.

Well, it turns out that things are indeed pretty bad. The commentary yesterday around BLY's result said that conditions were as bad as the GFC, and they are likely in breach of debt convenent test at calendar year end. They need to renegotiate the debt and/or do a big cap raising. I guess that's what happens in a cyclical business with large fixed costs - when 50% of your rigs are idle, the earning falls exponentially faster than revenue.

You'd think so soon after the near death experience during the GFC management would learn a thing or two... then again, may be management shouldn't. They control the controllables and it's up to the investor to manage their own exposure to cyclical risks.

Anyway, with my musing back in April, a buy then would've seen you above water for about a month before the next series of lower highs and lower lows.

ASL reports tomorrow and is smacked down today (I was surprised it didn't go down more yesterday)... it takes a brave soul to hold this into tomorrow's report that's for sure.

 

[ROE]

I am out as of yesterday result ..thing turn for the worse with balance sheet gone - take a loss not a big one as I manage to trade in and out for a while for profit so my average probably be around 55-60c and I got out at 52c

Money gone to AHZ because this thing look better by the day in 2 years it should generate decent profit and start growing ....