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... and the answer: An obvious "No!"
A number of the biggies have issued downgrades, and the Market reacted: 4M short in today's report.
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
BLY - Boart Longyear Group
- Thread starter bernardp
- Start date
... and the answer: An obvious "No!"
A number of the biggies have issued downgrades, and the Market reacted: 4M short in today's report.
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
skc
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This was such a hard one to trade. I actually held a long position coming into the market guidance. Sold on the open for a small loss and watch it ran from $1.25 to $1.45 and kicking myself constantly...
I thought it'd stay around the $1.35-$1.45 range... but it broke to the downside pretty convincingly.
I am surprised to see strength in MND today - I expected to see it do a BLY.
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Last time it hit these levels, after surprising the market, it was a table pounding buy from what I could see from those that spend their time analysing the space.
After recovering from the lows of that, quite recent, time it came out with a downgrade, which initially caused the stock to rise! It's not too common to see skitish traders bid up on a downgrade!
Wonder who was sitting behind that anouncement with their mouth wide open?
From memory TRS was in the top three shorted stocks at around $9.50.
Beware the crowded trade?
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Ha.... thats been my last 10 days!
skc
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Lol. I was thinking of your story on the other thread as I typed it.
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Thought it was a bit happy rising 9% on confirmation it has cut back lots of staff and so on to cope with less!
Glad I sold too now that it's only 3%
Glad I sold too now that it's only 3%
skc
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When a company announces that it is doing less of what it does the most, and the share price goes up... you know something's not right with the sector.
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And now for something completely different.
Down ramp,bottom pick, announce, boom.....
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/executivesuite/downtime/8576615/china-to-flatten-700-for-new-city
More of the same really.
I had to go for a walk when I saw repeat interviews of Richard Branson talking about China's headway in environmental sustainability compared to may other developed nations. Going for a walk was the only way I could keep myself from head butting the TV.
The entrepreneur has either found a new niche market in synergistic propaganda services or has been dropping acid.
Is it getting stuffy in here or is it just me?
Down ramp,bottom pick, announce, boom.....
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/executivesuite/downtime/8576615/china-to-flatten-700-for-new-city
More of the same really.
I had to go for a walk when I saw repeat interviews of Richard Branson talking about China's headway in environmental sustainability compared to may other developed nations. Going for a walk was the only way I could keep myself from head butting the TV.
The entrepreneur has either found a new niche market in synergistic propaganda services or has been dropping acid.
Is it getting stuffy in here or is it just me?
Julia
In Memoriam
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It is most assuredly not just you, notting.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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BLY is a very interesting stock.
It has a long history, I attach just the last 7 years from wikipedia.
It has been owned by such denizens of propriety and good governance as Bain Capital and Anglo American.
The good millionaires at Macquarie Bank floated it to their mug customers, for $2.3 billion to offset the dry years they had in the previous 5 years on their farms in NSW. A lot of lucerne goes a little way when your an ex millionaire's factory cockie.
It is worth just $790.9 million now, just about a third of it's floated value.
It is chilling to see the loss of value on the enclosed chart by the Macquarie mug punters, as few sold on the way down from appearances. No wonder MQG lost so much value since.
Nonetheless for bottom pickers with sticky fingers, the chart does indicate not only hope, but some promise. One to watch in 2013.
gg
It has a long history, I attach just the last 7 years from wikipedia.
It has been owned by such denizens of propriety and good governance as Bain Capital and Anglo American.
The good millionaires at Macquarie Bank floated it to their mug customers, for $2.3 billion to offset the dry years they had in the previous 5 years on their farms in NSW. A lot of lucerne goes a little way when your an ex millionaire's factory cockie.
It is worth just $790.9 million now, just about a third of it's floated value.
It is chilling to see the loss of value on the enclosed chart by the Macquarie mug punters, as few sold on the way down from appearances. No wonder MQG lost so much value since.
Nonetheless for bottom pickers with sticky fingers, the chart does indicate not only hope, but some promise. One to watch in 2013.
gg
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Given the negative 2% loss on XJO, and many of the others in the mining services sector doing even worse, it was interesting to see BLY have a positive day today after winning the race to the bottom over the last month or so.
Will be looking with interest tomorrow.
Will be looking with interest tomorrow.
Boart came across my eyes tonight after I saw a 10% decimation today - down to a princely $1.09!
One that I've always been interested in but seem to underperform on the whole...could now be a good time to take a position?
Things to note:
NTA: $1.55
Reduction in costs/headcount
Margins have been reducing but latest report seems to indicate this will improve
2 major minerals they supply for - Copper and Gold - don't seem to be as volatile as iron ore (gold at the moment does but I feel it could turn with the worlds problems).
May have a read over the weekend to determine...thoughts from others?
One that I've always been interested in but seem to underperform on the whole...could now be a good time to take a position?
Things to note:
NTA: $1.55
Reduction in costs/headcount
Margins have been reducing but latest report seems to indicate this will improve
2 major minerals they supply for - Copper and Gold - don't seem to be as volatile as iron ore (gold at the moment does but I feel it could turn with the worlds problems).
May have a read over the weekend to determine...thoughts from others?
skc
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Throw NTA out the window for any mining service stock.
NTA is an accounting entry. How much the company spent on drill rigs and bits (less depreciation) has nothing to do with how much profit and cash flow they would generate. In a world where demand exceeds supply (i.e. lots of people want to drill and there are not enough drillers), NTA is probably semi-meaningful as you can readily contract out or sell the rig. In a world where rigs might sit idle - probably where the market thinks we are headed - NTA would be quite meaningless as you can't even find a buyer in a liquidation.
$1.09 was a major low for BLY back in Sept last year. It found some leg to more than double from there (and did a text book gap fill). My random guess is that BLY will push through below $1 before any strength.
I am in today ... dont play NTA game, play probability of recovery...
Make no mistake their last report is bad but it is not that dire, they can withstand the current climate and a lot more with their balance sheet ...
interest cover is very healthy, throw in a business that is at all time cynical low on a PE of around 8 it has to get hell of a lot worse for it to tank from here...maybe another 10% if Mr market and Mr Shorter is stack against it..
I say it has potential to go to $1.40 - $1.50 in the next 18 months and that is a good enough game for me.
down side 95c-$1.0 upside $1.40 - $1.50 with the current price, upside wins ...
and there is potential for other people to snapped up its drilling products business and based on what GE paid for Industrea recently, BLY drilling product division alone worth more than its whole market cap...
such fear such good opportunity
but only time will tell who is on the right side of history, me for being cheerful or the market price it correctly
Make no mistake their last report is bad but it is not that dire, they can withstand the current climate and a lot more with their balance sheet ...
interest cover is very healthy, throw in a business that is at all time cynical low on a PE of around 8 it has to get hell of a lot worse for it to tank from here...maybe another 10% if Mr market and Mr Shorter is stack against it..
I say it has potential to go to $1.40 - $1.50 in the next 18 months and that is a good enough game for me.
down side 95c-$1.0 upside $1.40 - $1.50 with the current price, upside wins ...
and there is potential for other people to snapped up its drilling products business and based on what GE paid for Industrea recently, BLY drilling product division alone worth more than its whole market cap...
such fear such good opportunity
but only time will tell who is on the right side of history, me for being cheerful or the market price it correctly hey JTLP you message me a few times so I like to tell you what I know... NTA doesn't really mean much to us retail investor because unless you take control of the company and can salvage it like a private equity
they provide little benefits.
I take exception of properties holding like HVN and discount a bit and NTA should be their floor price and so in my opinion any way and that why I buy HVN at $1.80 etc...
Hard backing asset like properties do worth something regardless of what other people say, land value has to be worth something and there are always buyer for properties even if it is a ****ty properties..
value can be found when the market is fearful and they throw logic out
if you have strong foundation you can sort out the fear from the logic and prosper
hey JTLP you message me a few times so I like to tell you what I know... NTA doesn't really mean much to us retail investor because unless you take control of the company and can salvage it like a private equity
they provide little benefits.
I take exception of properties holding like HVN and discount a bit and NTA should be their floor price and so in my opinion any way and that why I buy HVN at $1.80 etc...
Hard backing asset like properties do worth something regardless of what other people say, land value has to be worth something and there are always buyer for properties even if it is a ****ty properties..
value can be found when the market is fearful and they throw logic out
if you have strong foundation you can sort out the fear from the logic and prosper
Thanks for the input ROEROC and SKC - appreciate the thoughts and explanations on NTA and mining services etc.
Good to know about the interest cover as well - and you're already in the money if you bought at the close yesterday!
I'll continue to watch for the moment
Margin call I reckon...no its EBITDA interest cover is 12-13 times
can take a fair bit of beating on earning....their cost initiate should paid off
in the next 6-12 months and stop outflow ....you get an update in May from the new CEO....
I bought some more today.... I got no debt no margin I can ride the beast ....
too irrational...good day to have cash
no one can tell when is a good time to buy...you just have to be comfortable with what you get and for the price you want and ride it
can take a fair bit of beating on earning....their cost initiate should paid off
in the next 6-12 months and stop outflow ....you get an update in May from the new CEO....
I bought some more today.... I got no debt no margin I can ride the beast ....
too irrational...good day to have cash
no one can tell when is a good time to buy...you just have to be comfortable with what you get and for the price you want and ride it
skc
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Margin call I reckon...no its EBITDA interest cover is 12-13 times
can take a fair bit of beating on earning....their cost initiate should paid off
in the next 6-12 months and stop outflow ....you get an update in May from the new CEO....
I bought some more today.... I got no debt no margin I can ride the beast ....
too irrational...good day to have cash
no one can tell when is a good time to buy...you just have to be comfortable with what you get and for the price you want and ride it
I'd agree this is getting a bit irrational. ASL downgraded yesterday but the numbers weren't disasterous. BLY was 54c at the bottom of the GFC whil faced with real chance of extinction. Now they are looking at some lean years but hardly an extinction event.
There's probably a short term trade in there somewhere, and a probably a long term hold as well. But you really need some decent balls to buy in the face of a mad crowd.
