AMX - Ampella Mining

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

AMX ... lists today and will be looking for some significant
and positive news, as several time cycles fall into place,
later this week:

16-20082007 ... four cycles in this time frame should bring
some positive (and unexpected?) news .....

happy days

paul



=====

 

[Miner]

Hi Paul
Should I take that AMX story with a pinch of salt. The issue got less than subscribed, date was extended (if I am not wrong) and has a far way to go.
I am sure Market gurus understand who ramps a share and who actually provides technical base. Yes, I do recognise the board consists of good people but the resource is to be proven.

Regards

 

[Smashing]

Bit of a dig here

long time reader first time poster so take it easy

What do you think about this news:
http://ampella.com.au/public/documents/4/1/20090120_Ampella%20to%20Raise%202M%20in%20Underwritten%20Right%20Issue.pdf

Ampella Mining Ltd announced on January 20 that it would raise $2 million before costs through an underwritten issue of new shares at 6c with free attaching options on a 1-for-2 basis.

The funds will be used to accelerate exploration on Ampella's new Batie West gold project in Burkina Faso, West Africa.

 

[happytown]

ann out this morning regarding institutional share placement to fund exploration at ampella's batie west gold project in africa (burkina faso)

13,333,333 @ .30 to raise $4M (subject to s/holder approval)

this is the third share placement this year

on successful placement, cash in bank approx $7.5M

recent drilling campaign completed last week, with first results expected in next fortnight

sp up approx 7% today on minor volume (up over 200% in last 2 months)

cheers

 

[Smashing]

ann out this morning regarding institutional share placement to fund exploration at ampella's batie west gold project in africa (burkina faso)

13,333,333 @ .30 to raise $4M (subject to s/holder approval)

this is the third share placement this year

on successful placement, cash in bank approx $7.5M

recent drilling campaign completed last week, with first results expected in next fortnight

sp up approx 7% today on minor volume (up over 200% in last 2 months)

cheers

I got in to the stock a while ago and am up 231.8%
Also have some of the options they are doing well too.

 

[Althom]

Don't understand this stock. No indicated resources, approx 40000 illegal miners mining all the cheap close to surface ounces, -where's the value in it?

 

[CapnBirdseye]

Completely crazy. EV/oz of over $250/oz. And they are only a explorer.

Mental. There has to be more to this one, surely.

 

[mr. jeff]

Showing an interesting slide.
Strength coming back in.
Big final selldown or a selling hiatus ?
May be presenting an opportunity soon.

 

[mr. jeff]

weekly chart showing more selling.



Recent good news of shallow gold intercepts promising, but the news of the metallurgy hurt, see history for that (30th Jan), but also cap raising on 24th Feb, so cash is sound now.

Watching and waiting.

 

[mr. jeff]

"Can this support hold ?"

Not at all! Timbberrrr!

 

[mr. jeff]

Looming at $1 now and looking more attractive. Someone has trotted out the takeover talk to try and stop the bleeding.. will it help ?



Looking very interesting - quite a fall it has been through - 3 year weekly chart and back to Feb 2010.
Extremely high sustained volume means someone is soaking it up, and the fall has been stemmed - temporarily ?
It looks like this volume may signal a finish to selling, just can't see it continuing at this pace, however it has been knocked hard and there are plenty of good gold producers out there that are also sold down and more attractive, so who knows where this ends, could be in for a time of consolidation/drifting unless something changes. Current gold price action not inspiring.

 

[thegooch]

Jeff - have you ever considered that the high volume is generated by the same entity buying and selling back and forth to itself? The purpose being to manufacture negative sentiment in the stock ? Its called stacking the depth, planting parcels on both sides on the depth, trading back and forth , but tending the bias downward to give the illusion of a sell down. The same entity also front runs the stock with shorts and uses the same techinique to pick up larger stop loss parcels on the way down.

So the techinique achieve 3 things:

1. negative sentiment (people start setting stops in place)
2. drop the price and accumulate the stop losses and panic sellers
3. short the stock at the same time to fund the whole exercise and make $$ all the while.

Who and why do this ? - who - a holding company ,why- they are acting on behalf of a suitor, looking to procure a corner-stone investment to strenghen their case once a bid is put forth.

All the evidence is there on a day to day basis.

Look at the weekly volumes - if thats someone selling down , there would've been a change in substantial holding by now , only a substantial holder would have enough shares to sell down that many per week .

At any rate , a tracing notice would have been initiated by now, so management will know soon enough what the game is .

I see big opportunity here. Wait and see.

 

[mr. jeff]

Jeff - have you ever considered that the high volume is generated by the same entity buying and selling back and forth to itself? The purpose being to manufacture negative sentiment in the stock ? Its called stacking the depth, planting parcels on both sides on the depth, trading back and forth , but tending the bias downward to give the illusion of a sell down. The same entity also front runs the stock with shorts and uses the same techinique to pick up larger stop loss parcels on the way down.

So the techinique achieve 3 things:

1. negative sentiment (people start setting stops in place)
2. drop the price and accumulate the stop losses and panic sellers
3. short the stock at the same time to fund the whole exercise and make $$ all the while.

Who and why do this ? - who - a holding company ,why- they are acting on behalf of a suitor, looking to procure a corner-stone investment to strenghen their case once a bid is put forth.

All the evidence is there on a day to day basis.

Look at the weekly volumes - if thats someone selling down , there would've been a change in substantial holding by now , only a substantial holder would have enough shares to sell down that many per week .

At any rate , a tracing notice would have been initiated by now, so management will know soon enough what the game is .

I see big opportunity here. Wait and see.

Mr Gooch, your explanation or something along those lines seems likely, and it seems almost ridiculous the volume of stock that has moved - 12 days of above 4m per day gives about 50m shares moved of a total 241 on issue. That is 20% of IC.

Will watch and wait. Market cap of $245M is not that small considering their 3Moz+ resource with no production and questioned met results, so no rush to get into it with other up and coming stocks on the continent such as PMI etc. with similar market caps. It would be quite rewarding to be able to pick it up before a bid or similar came through, however it could with a decent retreat in POG get back to 65c which would not be nice to wear.

Thanks for the insight and will keep an eye out for further action.

 

[thegooch]

MrJeff , what do you make of the current chart ? Start of a trend reversal in play perhaps. Will get confirmation next week i guess.

Specialist firm - Taurus funds , has been the big buyer in the mix (6mill shares in the last few weeks) , with still no substantial change from the other major shareholders indicating they're selling. I'd say they've mainly been able to pick up the weak retail holders losing their nerve.

Taurus have a large team of geo's, mine engineers etc.... They wouldn't have added such a huge position without doing the DD on amx. Taurus now own over 7% of the company.

With the current chart , volume returning to more normal levels and the spectre of a takeover looming in the next 6months , i think you'd be hard pressed to find a better entry for amx since 2009 !!

Expect a bid in the next 3-6months imo , hopefully the lads can stack on the ounces before then . We should get another 1 mil/oz at konks sooner rather than later , and some additional ounces from foumbirri to start showing the potential beyond konks.

 

[prawn_86]

No longer going ahead with their asset sales apparently. Now they are just going to focus on developing the asset instead. $43m cash in bank and Tauras Funds Management owning just over 10%

 

[mr. jeff]

Hi thegooch and apologies for not seeing your post.
AMX chart (I will update soon) shows nothing new and nothing happening yet. A very constant grind down.
Still waiting for a major turning point to appear but at this stage it seems that it will have to be via crisis. Volumes have remained relatively constant so far. From what little I know, I would say that trying to get rid of assets, then deciding to develop them when no-one is interested is not a great thing and doesn't instil much confidence in management or the resource. Those test results bit hard.

On a more positive note, they are drilling rather busily I believe and have pretty decent potential for extensions or new finds, they have proved their capacity for this.

 

[Boggo]

Still waiting for a major turning point to appear

Patience is the way forward with these imo, a repeat of the previous pattern would be nice !

(click to expand)

 

[Althom]

Dead duck, couldn't even get any interest to sell it.

 

[thegooch]

Dead duck, couldn't even get any interest to sell it.

There was interest , but with the share price smashed so low (most likely on purpose) they decided to shut down the process early , instead of getting super low ball offers. I think offers were forthcoming , but management made the right decision to defend shareholder value here and move forward operationally.

The bidders will return before years end imo , once new deposits start taking shape and prove up that they have an entire gold belt , not just a single economic project.

Secondly , met testing "issues" have been totally overstated and the management will likely difuse this in the coming months via better explanation in the PFS.

But the directors will have to stand and deliver from here , and make the case that their project is worth a bid of the desired $500mill+ price tag they're likely after.

I expect to see a newly invigorated management come out firing in the second half of this year.

Share price is now around 15% higher than recent lows. and the chart is looking like a bottom may have finally been ground out .

All the best to holders.

 

[Morgan]

Up 17.5% today and a speeding ticket from ASX.