The future of Australian property prices

[KurwaJegoMac]

THE predicted slowdown in China's economic boom could cause Australian house prices to plunge by more than 5 per cent this year, according to one of the world's most influential credit rating agencies.
Standard & Poor's warned that efforts by the Chinese government to deliberately slow its economy over the next 12 months will have a major impact on Australia's exports throughout Asia.

Thank heavens we have the S&P here to guide us with their fabulous powers of economic observation and reasoning. After all, they did such a great job helping us avoid the GFC with their accurate measures!

...oh wait...

 

[Julia]

Julia - you mention you're looking at building a house, what is your take on wages? Do you see labour wages being a major part of your construction costs?

Absolutely.

Thank heavens we have the S&P here to guide us with their fabulous powers of economic observation and reasoning. After all, they did such a great job helping us avoid the GFC with their accurate measures!

...oh wait...

Yep, S&P: depend on them every time for accuracy.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

What brings you to that conclusion? From what I've seen, some of the biggest costs in building are the labour costs - which is driven by the labour's wages. Whether it be Residential or Commercial, sparky or chippy, labour costs are high.

Yes, but it's not the costs themselves - rather how much the costs of labour have risen relative to other costs, in construction the other one would be materials.

However even if you add up all of the construction costs - they have gone up just a fraction of how much land prices have risen - and there is the main culprit of the property bubble.

While I never suggested that labour costs are insignificant - they are just a part of construction costs (which as I said has risen as a small fraction of land price increases).

So all in all, it is not a big factor.

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Yes, but it's not the costs themselves - rather how much the costs of labour have risen relative to other costs, in construction the other one would be materials.

However even if you add up all of the construction costs - they have gone up just a fraction of how much land prices have risen - and there is the main culprit of the property bubble.

While I never suggested that labour costs are insignificant - they are just a part of construction costs (which as I said has risen as a small fraction of land price increases).

So all in all, it is not a big factor.

Right, now I understand where you're coming from. Thanks for clarifying.

 

[young-gun]

China drop to hit house prices hard

Peter Cai

March 9, 2012

House prices in Melbourne fell 1.4 per cent in the three months to December last year.

THE predicted slowdown in China's economic boom could cause Australian house prices to plunge by more than 5 per cent this year, according to one of the world's most influential credit rating agencies.
Standard & Poor's warned that efforts by the Chinese government to deliberately slow its economy over the next 12 months will have a major impact on Australia's exports throughout Asia.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/c...prices-hard-20120308-1un4w.html#ixzz1oYqh5d9h

its funny that anyone actually believes china has control of whats coming there way. China isnt slowing things down, things are slowing down, and china are making out like its intended.

That aside, china is only one of many reasons our property prices are falling, and will simply accelerate them if things head south quickly over there.

 

[sptrawler]

its funny that anyone actually believes china has control of whats coming there way. China isnt slowing things down, things are slowing down, and china are making out like its intended.

That aside, china is only one of many reasons our property prices are falling, and will simply accelerate them if things head south quickly over there.

I had better get the pre approval in place and wait for the bell and flashing neon, telling me to buy.

 

[So_Cynical]

Hey the ASX site has a page up showing "all dwellings" index's for the 5 biggest states and rental yields..

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/propertyIndices.do

 

[McLovin]

How do you measure property on a day to day basis with any sort of accuracy?

 

[Glen48]

A mate on the Sunshine Coast has been loosing 2G a week on his unit so far he is down 300K will he sell and get out now ....NO.

 

[damien275x]

Nobody in my age bracket (22-25) wants to buy a home. Too expensive, don't want the debt/commitment, so good luck selling them when you retire. As for the shortage, there is no shortage, if you wanted a house all you have to do is find one, inspect it, and buy it. There is no waiting, there is no excessive competition, and there is plenty of space to build up and out. It's hard to go against what everybody says, most older people I know seem to be economic illiterate and think prices will continually rise forever. I somehow doubt that. It comes up as a debate and talking point over and over and over and I am sick of trying to convince people that renting makes sense given the current economic climate. I just tell them I bought the house and they shut up. I will do what I think is best, and they can go do what they think is best.

I wish people would stop trying to convince others they are right, what do you care so deeply about whether or not a stranger loses his/her money? I doubt it. You just want to convince yourself that you are right. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is and just shut up?

 

[Bill M]

most older people I know seem to be economic illiterate

You must be hanging around the wrong crowd.

 

[village idiot]

I am sick of trying to convince people that renting makes sense given the current economic climate

I wish people would stop trying to convince others they are right

no conflict here?

 

[young-gun]

Nobody in my age bracket (22-25) wants to buy a home. Too expensive, don't want the debt/commitment, so good luck selling them when you retire. As for the shortage, there is no shortage, if you wanted a house all you have to do is find one, inspect it, and buy it. There is no waiting, there is no excessive competition, and there is plenty of space to build up and out. It's hard to go against what everybody says, most older people I know seem to be economic illiterate and think prices will continually rise forever. I somehow doubt that. It comes up as a debate and talking point over and over and over and I am sick of trying to convince people that renting makes sense given the current economic climate. I just tell them I bought the house and they shut up. I will do what I think is best, and they can go do what they think is best.

I wish people would stop trying to convince others they are right, what do you care so deeply about whether or not a stranger loses his/her money? I doubt it. You just want to convince yourself that you are right. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is and just shut up?

so ignore everyone else? get your gameplan and stick to it. thats what im doing, and if it all turns to **** then we only have ourselves to blame. no need to stress, prices are coming down.

 

[So_Cynical]

As for the shortage, there is no shortage, if you wanted a house all you have to do is find one, inspect it, and buy it. There is no waiting, there is no excessive competition, and there is plenty of space to build up and out.

When you put it like that...your 100% right, there is no housing shortage.

------------------------------

Anyone see 4corners tonight? they were reporting on the Euro debt woes in Ireland and Greece in particular...anyway to highlight just how bad things are in Ireland they attended a real estate auction...ill quote an online paper below.

A four star 55 bedroom hotel that once counted the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as a regular guest has sold at bargain basement prices in Donegal.

The 55-bedroom Sandhouse Hotel fetched $900,000 when it sold at a distressed property auction in Dublin.

The four star establishment, overlooking Donegal Bay, was once on the market for a whopping $10million.

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Fo...r-one-tenth-of-boom-time-price-141164123.html

Click the link and have a look at the place...amazing what real estate is worth when no ones got any money.
~

 

[Bill M]

When you put it like that...your 100% right, there is no housing shortage.

------------------------------

Anyone see 4corners tonight? they were reporting on the Euro debt woes in Ireland and Greece in particular...anyway to highlight just how bad things are in Ireland they attended a real estate auction...ill quote an online paper below.



http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Fo...r-one-tenth-of-boom-time-price-141164123.html

Click the link and have a look at the place...amazing what real estate is worth when no ones got any money.
~

Un f****ng believable, truly is. You can't get fibro shack in Freshwater for that.

Here's hoping for that crash here...:bier:

Somehow I don't think it's gonna happen.

 

[So_Cynical]

Un f****ng believable, truly is. You can't get fibro shack in Freshwater for that.

Here's hoping for that crash here...:bier:

Somehow I don't think it's gonna happen.

Yeah but that's the point isn't it...the unbelievable does happen, happened 2 weeks ago in Ireland and the buyers were the only bidders at the Auction and got it at the reserve.

Unbelievable that a 4 star 55 room Ocean front Hotel sold for well under a million Aussie dollars.

 

[Bill M]

Yeah but that's the point isn't it...the unbelievable does happen, happened 2 weeks ago in Ireland and the buyers were the only bidders at the Auction and got it at the reserve.

Unbelievable that a 4 star 55 room Ocean front Hotel sold for well under a million Aussie dollars.

This will be a talking point for many years to come, I'll have another Guinness thanks.:bier:

 

[Miss Hale]

Un f****ng believable, truly is. You can't get fibro shack in Freshwater for that.

Here's hoping for that crash here...:bier:

Somehow I don't think it's gonna happen.

I saw this too...amazing

Slightly off topic, but I am a bit of an addict for an English reality show called "Homes Under the Hammer". Basically people buy - usually rundown - houses at auction then fix them up and ether re-sell or let. I am amazed at (a) how cheap the houses are and (b) how good the rental return is (usually around 10% sometimes more). Makes me realise how out of whack our real estate is here at the moment .

 

[Vixs]

I saw this too...amazing

Slightly off topic, but I am a bit of an addict for an English reality show called "Homes Under the Hammer". Basically people buy - usually rundown - houses at auction then fix them up and ether re-sell or let. I am amazed at (a) how cheap the houses are and (b) how good the rental return is (usually around 10% sometimes more). Makes me realise how out of whack our real estate is here at the moment .

Well if you do the sums, that's what rental yields need to be when you don't have negative gearing in place. It has to pay any mortgage on the place plus maintenance costs plus some profit, or there is simply no point in anyone buying it to rent out.

In reality, if we do have the massive crash down to UK income/house price ratios, there will never ever be a better time for the government to scale down and remove negative gearing. Whether they do or not, I don't care. If it stays I'll take advantage of it when I can, if it goes I'll adapt my financial plans accordingly.

 

[village idiot]

Slightly off topic, but I am a bit of an addict for an English reality show called "Homes Under the Hammer". Basically people buy - usually rundown - houses at auction then fix them up and ether re-sell or let. I am amazed at (a) how cheap the houses are and (b) how good the rental return is (usually around 10% sometimes more). Makes me realise how out of whack our real estate is here at the moment .

havent seen that particular show, but I used to do that in blighty in the good old days when property was cheap and returns justified the investment, whether you were selling or renting out.

as mentioned earlier in this thread, i have just sold house here (perth), and was looking around to rent, astonished at how quickly rents were shooting up (can you have a bubble in rent prices?)

then on the net i came across a 6 bedroom house in a village near the wifes home town in england, for rent at one quarter of the price it would cost me to rent a 4 bed here. so we're off back to blighty for a while to check out whats happening. pehaps i will find a 55 room hotel to buy?

as an aside, the electrician who did my house is a pom, and he is doing the same - selling the house in australia to return to the uk relatively cashed up. i dont think he is the only one