The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

Melbourne overpriced to begin with.
Adelaide has just had close to 23% increase in 4 years.
Brisbane has just been flooded.

Just like shares ..... ya gotta know when to buy. Would I buy a house in these (metro) areas now? Ummmmmmmm ..... nope. Would I buy a house in "CERTAIN" areas ..... you betcha. But I am repeating myself yet again ....... Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I have to agree with you trainspotter, average wages are not going to go down(unless you have a Greek situation) So therefore there are some great opportunities poping up.
There are some great locations being sold at low prices.

 

[Klogg]

Melbourne overpriced to begin with.
Adelaide has just had close to 23% increase in 4 years.
Brisbane has just been flooded.

Just like shares ..... ya gotta know when to buy. Would I buy a house in these (metro) areas now? Ummmmmmmm ..... nope. Would I buy a house in "CERTAIN" areas ..... you betcha. But I am repeating myself yet again ....... Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Agreed trainspotter! Even in times like this, there are suburbs that are performing very well (I can only speak for Melbourne).

IMO, there's value to be found in any market...

 

[Klogg]

I have to agree with you trainspotter, average wages are not going to go down(unless you have a Greek situation) So therefore there are some great opportunities poping up.
There are some great locations being sold at low prices.

Actually I've been looking at buying a house in Williamstown (Melbourne, well-known beach area in the inner west) and I'm noticing some nice prices there in comparison to the rest of the market.

If I'm able to get things in order and ensure I'm not exposing myself, I may just have to move down there!

 

[sptrawler]

Actually I've been looking at buying a house in Williamstown (Melbourne, well-known beach area in the inner west) and I'm noticing some nice prices there in comparison to the rest of the market.

If I'm able to get things in order and ensure I'm not exposing myself, I may just have to move down there!

Well Klogg, that is what it is all about, if you can pick up a bargain RELATIVE TO AVERAGE WAGES, in a good location you can't go wrong in the long term. If worse comes to worse you can move in.
Just go back to the old rule of three times average wages, add a bit for a great location

 

[moXJO]

I just picked up a ip that started at $550k and bought it for $390k. Worst house in a decent street. Houses around it have been selling for the low $600k. Rent covers the loan payments and then some. Will probably develop the block down the track. I've been looking for years and have noticed some good bargains around at the moment. About 5km
north of this house prices have just been going stupidly high. I think a lot of people brought at the top of the market in some areas and I have friends in this situation that pay a fortune in loan repayments. I'm tighter then a fishes ******** though, so I prefer loan and ip ongoing costs to not put any dent in my weekly budget. I hate having debt even if it is the so called good kind.

 

[trainspotter]

He he ! Now the people come out to play. There is still good coin to be made. Ya just gotta look at the situation. Unlike shares where you buy in the morning and sell in the arvo there is more to property than meets the eye.

 

[medicowallet]

Brisbane has just been flooded.

So the city was flooded, and there has been employment generated by the rebuilding and the insurance dollar, and consumption increase due to purchasing replacement items etc.

Why has housing in the areas not affected by the flooding (ie the houses that sustained no damage) decreased too?

Wouldn't a supply and demand scenario support higher prices in these areas?

Any other excuses for Brisbane's pathetic property market that are credible?

MW

 

[trainspotter]

So the city was flooded, and there has been employment generated by the rebuilding and the insurance dollar, and consumption increase due to purchasing replacement items etc.

Why has housing in the areas not affected by the flooding (ie the houses that sustained no damage) decreased too?

Wouldn't a supply and demand scenario support higher prices in these areas?

Any other excuses for Brisbane's pathetic property market that are credible?

MW

LOL ........ I see you have not had your Optirectumotomy operation yet ?

 

[medicowallet]

LOL ........ I see you have not had your Optirectumotomy operation yet ?

I like your eyes exactly where they are


But, still, I see no reason as to why the floods should have caused prices in unaffected areas to follow suit, when so few houses were truly affected.

 

[McLovin]

Slightly tangential to the property market but I had a good chuckle about this...

THE strong Aussie has pushed Adelaide into the top 20 list of the world's most expensive cities, says the Economist Intelligence Unit's Worldwide Cost of Living survey.

...

the high dollar had made all five Australian cities costlier than major international cities such as London, Rome, New York, Los Angeles, Berlin, Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/busin...ity-in-the-world/story-e6fredj3-1226270757603

No doubt the high dollar is influencing this but really, you have to wonder how sustainable it is to have Adelaide as more expensive than the other cities mentioned above. Something's gotta give.

 

[medicowallet]

Slightly tangential to the property market but I had a good chuckle about this...



http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/busin...ity-in-the-world/story-e6fredj3-1226270757603

No doubt the high dollar is influencing this but really, you have to wonder how sustainable it is to have Adelaide as more expensive than the other cities mentioned above. Something's gotta give.

1. But it is different here
2. But it recently flooded in all those cities and their prices have fallen.
3. But Australian banks are offering too low interest rates.
4. But unemployment here is falling.
5. But we have the most efficient government.
6. But our lack of land drives house prices up and up.
7. But our centralised location ensures a strategical position for trade.
8. But our drastic undersupply of housing is causing pricing pressures.
9. But we have the greatest treasurer in the world.
10. But Robots says up up and up brothers.

Just keeping it real for the true believers,

Sunshine and lollipops for my kind and glorious brothers,

MW

PS where is Robots?

 

[trainspotter]

I like your eyes exactly where they are


But, still, I see no reason as to why the floods should have caused prices in unaffected areas to follow suit, when so few houses were truly affected.

Ummmmmmm ..... so places like Zipswich which were sold as house and land packages to 95% LVR's which came under mortgage stress when rates went up flew under your radar then?

SO FEW HOUSES ???????? We are talking about Fig Tree Pocket and GraceVille that went underwater ...... ya know the old money areas???? What about the infrastructure and the boats that ended up in the bay??? The Cultural Centre and the pr0n pool at Southbank? Brett's Jetty ..... HUH ??? Are you paying attention !!!!!!!

P.S. Your eyes need some Clear Eyes drops in them.

 

[IFocus]

Slightly tangential to the property market but I had a good chuckle about this...



http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/busin...ity-in-the-world/story-e6fredj3-1226270757603

No doubt the high dollar is influencing this but really, you have to wonder how sustainable it is to have Adelaide as more expensive than the other cities mentioned above. Something's gotta give.

So going by that you would cash out here and buy your IPs overseas..........

 

[McLovin]

So going by that you would cash out here and buy your IPs overseas..........

I'll leave you to answer that question.

FWIW, the Economist doesn't include accomodation costs in its survey as these are usually paid by the employer.

I'll take a punt and speculate that full employment has led to wage growth without productivity increases and this is showing in high prices for goods and services. It creates a sort of Pyrrhic victory, especially in a service based economy.

 

[So_Cynical]

So going by that you would cash out here and buy your IPs overseas..........

While on the subject of OS property.

I've just returned from 2 weeks in the Philippines and couldn't help but notice that new 1 bedroom apartment/condominiums (off plan) in Manila are selling for less than 60K AUD and in a prime location, the Darling harbour equivalent of Manila.

Selling for less than 12% of the cost of similar apartments in inner Sydney...apples and oranges comparison perhaps but apples and oranges prices too.

 

[medicowallet]

Ummmmmmm ..... so places like Zipswich which were sold as house and land packages to 95% LVR's which came under mortgage stress when rates went up flew under your radar then?

SO FEW HOUSES ???????? We are talking about Fig Tree Pocket and GraceVille that went underwater ...... ya know the old money areas???? What about the infrastructure and the boats that ended up in the bay??? The Cultural Centre and the pr0n pool at Southbank? Brett's Jetty ..... HUH ??? Are you paying attention !!!!!!!

P.S. Your eyes need some Clear Eyes drops in them.

Let us take for example Graceville.. How many houses went "under" were old Queenslanders which were on stilts, and were built in underneath?

These are then paid out by insurance money, and replaced = keeps tradies employed, and retailers who sell the product etc.

Insurance money coming in, generates work for people who otherwise would have less, and puts upwards pressure on housing prices as tradies continue to charge ridiculous rates as their supply and demand is more favourable than otherwise.

In all, only a small % are not liveable, and if it was larger then there would be higher prices as rental vacancies dropped and pressure to find housing increased.

Boats into the bay? Replacement of those boats with insurance money stimulates the economy (and if they weren't insured, they weren't really generating a huge amount anyway)

So... come again? and, when will the floods cease to be an excuse? 5 yrs? 10 yrs? or whenever the govt increases the FHVG again?

MW

 

[trainspotter]

Let us take for example Graceville.. How many houses went "under" were old Queenslanders which were on stilts, and were built in underneath?

These are then paid out by insurance money, and replaced = keeps tradies employed, and retailers who sell the product etc.

Insurance money coming in, generates work for people who otherwise would have less, and puts upwards pressure on housing prices as tradies continue to charge ridiculous rates as their supply and demand is more favourable than otherwise.

In all, only a small % are not liveable, and if it was larger then there would be higher prices as rental vacancies dropped and pressure to find housing increased.

Boats into the bay? Replacement of those boats with insurance money stimulates the economy (and if they weren't insured, they weren't really generating a huge amount anyway)

So... come again? and, when will the floods cease to be an excuse? 5 yrs? 10 yrs? or whenever the govt increases the FHVG again?

MW

You really do not have a clue now do you MW ????

Let's keep it real simple for you ...... what happened to Nagasaki RE value after the bomb went off??

What happened to Christchurch values after the earthquake??

Do you get it now or should I become more basic ???

 

[satanoperca]

Reality :
Australian property prices are trending down
Unemployment on the rise
Interest rates increasing.

Conclusion ;
Property must increase, my taxi driver told me so.

 

[Klogg]

I'd imagine that the floods will no longer be an excuse once the memory of them has worn off... How long that takes, I have no idea.
IMO, the floods can only be used to explain capital losses in those areas that are in excess of the capital losses of comparable areas.

Slight off topic:
I haven't checked this out in too much detail as I don't have the cash to do this... but I think it'd be worth checking the rental yield on some of those flooded areas and see if you can get a decent return for your dollar. Although the value of the properties may have fallen, it might just return a similar amount of rent as before... (just a thought, haven't actually verified this).
And then of-course this might be offset by higher insurance premiums.... just a possibility though.

 

[trainspotter]

I'd imagine that the floods will no longer be an excuse once the memory of them has worn off... How long that takes, I have no idea.
IMO, the floods can only be used to explain capital losses in those areas that are in excess of the capital losses of comparable areas.

Slight off topic:
I haven't checked this out in too much detail as I don't have the cash to do this... but I think it'd be worth checking the rental yield on some of those flooded areas and see if you can get a decent return for your dollar. Although the value of the properties may have fallen, it might just return a similar amount of rent as before... (just a thought, haven't actually verified this).
And then of-course this might be offset by higher insurance premiums.... just a possibility though.

Majority of flooded areas were high nett worth areas close to the Brisbane River. You do the math backwards from there. Re goes up closer to water tributaries or oceans. Lord knows what happens when you have your own private jetty that gets washed away in a major flood along with the 60 foot launch. What about all the Government infrastructure??? HUH ????? Ferry terminals GONE !!! Southbank GONE !! Kangaroo Point Walkway GONE !!

Shhheeeeeeeeeeeeeessssssssssssshhhhhhhhhh !