Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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littleshire said:
- Australia public debt to GDP is only 25%, for the USA, it is 100%, this is contagion, it will pass… guaranteed.
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Private debt to gdp around 160-170%, 2nd or 3rd in the world

My thoughts....

High Australian employment dictating corporate profits will surely have to put a floor on the values of those companies most exposed to local economic conditions?

Market to tank or shoot up on the Fed announcement tomorrow?


I'm ready to buy some more :popcorn:
 
Looking forward to another nice increase in gold tomorrow (Code: gold).

Was sitting with a friend at a cafe on the Boulvard Des Chanselise across from a money exchange with a 'bloomberg' type news stream. I was watching all the people walking up and panicking.

Champagne in hand, I must have had a rye smile, as my friend lent across and in his broken English said:

He who remains calm in the midst of chaos is truly insane


-Liar-
 
Anyone who bought up yesterday, "Lie back and think of England". ;)
 
There is a whole slew of VERY IMPORTANT US economic data out in the next 8 US working days (thank gawd there was none last night or -1,000 might have been on the cards!).

Amongst the possible further bombshells this week and next (many with negative forecasts) are .. http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic

2Q Productivity slump, sharp increase in jobless claims & slump in consumer confidence are all forecast!!

[size=-3]PS: Sorry - the lists show in reverse order for some reason.[/size]
 

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Unbelievable...Went to bed last night at 3am thinking I've seen the worst of the freefall. But S&P managed to fall another 3.5% in the afternoon.

There is the all important Fed announcement tonight and I think Benny B will bring out, what he thinks, a bazooka of a QE3 and the market will rally (for a few hours).
But by tomorrow morning the old motto "Never bet against the Fed" will be shattered completely, and the new craze will be "Fade the Fed".

Here are a few more signs that GFC^2 is upon us.

- Another G20 crisis meeting
- Greece banned short selling (best analogy I've seen was blaming gravity for planes falling)
- Rule 48 invoked on NYSE last night

And it's GFC^2 (squared) because this one shapes up to be far worst than GFC I. The best scenario offered by commentators is "We might muddle through this".
 
sails said:
Some of us have it (at least a reasonable part of it) in cash, earning interest and compounding...lol
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I hesitate at the "lol". I am also in cash but I respect the tough decisons that others have had to make -- and surely no 2 sets of circumstances are identical.

Tech is right, imo, about the benefits of good charting [or in some cases in following a good chartist -- not necessarily a "rich" one].

Have people who have sat in cash consistently these past several years done the right thing by themseleves and their capital? Absolutely if this is their considered stance.

Others, myself included, have followed different advice and traded the trends -- losing at times [ORG, ORI, WES and TOL for example] and winning on others [SKE, AGO, ASL and SIP for example].

I prefer to respect the positions, strategies and views of others - whether they be 26, 46 or [like me] 66.

There is no one path.

Just my thoughts

Rick
 
skc said:
Unbelievable...Went to bed last night at 3am thinking I've seen the worst of the freefall. But S&P managed to fall another 3.5% in the afternoon.

There is the all important Fed announcement tonight and I think Benny B will bring out, what he thinks, a bazooka of a QE3 and the market will rally (for a few hours).
But by tomorrow morning the old motto "Never bet against the Fed" will be shattered completely, and the new craze will be "Fade the Fed".

Here are a few more signs that GFC^2 is upon us.

- Another G20 crisis meeting
- Greece banned short selling (best analogy I've seen was blaming gravity for planes falling)
- Rule 48 invoked on NYSE last night

And it's GFC^2 (squared) because this one shapes up to be far worst than GFC I. The best scenario offered by commentators is "We might muddle through this".
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Obama sure is in a muddle right now. On the one hand, he protesteth that S&P's ratings are meaningless ("USA AAA forever!" etc) yet on the other hand, why make such a big fuss about sustaining a AAA myth? The man beggars belief.

Just to twist the knife a bit deeper, S&P have last night downgraded scores of companies the US is currently bailing out http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/21840-s&p-downgrade-hits-scores-of-us-companies.html (ie Freddie Mac, Fannie May et all) thus ensuring the debt bill will unexpectedly rise much higher. The already struggling Muni funding markets are also going to feel the squeeze as they will inevitably have to be downgraded too.

Crack the champers, Timmy?
 
Saturday's AGE:

''I think at the moment it is all theory, it is not actual money,'' Mr Wenban said.

Some self-funded retirees have come to me and are quite panicked about it, but I've had to say to them, 'For god's sake, don't sell, just hang on,''' he said.

​
''But for those who are years away from retirement, they need to be philosophical and understand that markets can be volatile, but in the long term they should be fine.''

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/money/supe...ot-to-panic-20110808-1ii75.html#ixzz1UTk5lS5D


...My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Time in the market is far better than timing the market.
(with apologies to Mr Owens)

At what does it become irresponsible to print this stuff? Is "time in the market" the defacto philosophy simply because we don't educate our citizens on how to handle their own financial affairs?
​


​
 
$20shoes said:
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Time in the market is far better than timing the market.
(with apologies to Mr Owens)

At what does it become irresponsible to print this stuff? Is "time in the market" the defacto philosophy simply because we don't educate our citizens on how to handle their own financial affairs?[/COLOR][/SIZE]
[/COLOR][/LEFT]


[/COLOR][/LEFT]
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Market has a short memory. But it's not like the last bear market was 20 years ago and the new generation of market participants has forgotten about it all. It was only 2 years ago FFS. Evidently people haven't learnt anything :banghead:
 
Its OK everyone Moodies are still positive about the short term US. LOL
How good was Obama's speach!
Basically said "doesn't matter what grade they give us, We are the United States of America!!!"
'Praise Jesus.'
Just don't understand why the Markets tanked.:confused:
 
skc said:
Market has a short memory. But it's not like the last bear market was 20 years ago and the new generation of market participants has forgotten about it all. It was only 2 years ago FFS. Evidently people haven't learnt anything :banghead:
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The history of financial markets is littered with the same booms & busts repeated over and over again but yet it appears we never learn.

Any sort of basic research into stock market crashes would have shown that after a crash (2008) there is normally a period of a couple of years of rallies and "good times" before we see a serious attempt to push back towards the lows or even new lows.

Here is a link to some analysis from 2009 highlighting this and also a link to the latest chart.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=459839#post459839
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=649851&viewfull=1#post649851

So for those who think now is the time to buy history suggests that it is in fact too early.
 
Yeapp too early. Will get lower.

Only question i have now is, time to sell?

I'm tempted to wait it out. But i dunno..
 
Well, the Americans had a fun day!

I have a question, perhaps a bit of a newbie question, if anybody would like to provide their thoughts for me.

I wouldn't say I have been a long term investor, I guess medium term trader? Holding for weeks/months and selling. I'm young enough to wait out any silly stock market nonsense. Obviously I have taken some quite severe losses at the moment. I can hold on to these and wait, and wait and wait for years for things to get back to where they were if need be; I don't want to go around selling everything in a panic.

But. If it seems that things are going to get worse, is it a bad or unwise strategy to sell for a loss in this downturn in the expectation/hope that I will be able to buy these companies back at a lower price soon in the future?

I don't want to be like all the panic stricken during the GFC that sold out all their investments at the very bottom, and ended up with nothing but huge losses.
 
ChrisJH said:
Well, the Americans had a fun day!

I have a question, perhaps a bit of a newbie question, if anybody would like to provide their thoughts for me.

I wouldn't say I have been a long term investor, I guess medium term trader? Holding for weeks/months and selling. I'm young enough to wait out any silly stock market nonsense. Obviously I have taken some quite severe losses at the moment. I can hold on to these and wait, and wait and wait for years for things to get back to where they were if need be; I don't want to go around selling everything in a panic.

But. If it seems that things are going to get worse, is it a bad or unwise strategy to sell for a loss in this downturn in the expectation/hope that I will be able to buy these companies back at a lower price soon in the future?

I don't want to be like all the panic stricken during the GFC that sold out all their investments at the very bottom, and ended up with nothing but huge losses.
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Yeah, I'm in the same boat as you mate. I get the feeling that we are too late for that though.

If i had of sold up on friday or even thursday i would be about 10% better off.

Currently down 20%, it is highly unlikely that i will take those losses.

If i had the time to sit down and wisely day trade my way back up then i might just bail out and wait for a turn. But chances are i wont be able to do that.
 
If you had the time to sit down and day trade you'd have been better off spending that time at the casino! Share markets have so much promise, and that's where it ends for day traders, well 90% of em. Roll?
 
notting said:
If you had the time to sit down and day trade you'd have been better off spending that time at the casino! Share markets have so much promise, and that's where it ends for day traders, well 90% of em. Roll?
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Just lol, how about if you had time to sit down and trade you'd have been better of spending that time educating yourself about how to actually trade and developing strategies to actually succeed.

There is a reason 90% fail, because unlike a lot of other professions it is very easy to get into the markets without the right experience, education and plan. You wouldn't go into business without a plan and some idea of what you are doing yet plenty of people jump into the markets with absolutely no idea of what they are doing and then wonder why the lose money.
 
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