Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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and Skippy has hit parity ... thank God we have got the dependable USA to park our money in when the rest of the world wallows ;)...

Cheers
........... kauri
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Watching 3820 for a bounce. BHP maybe.

Actually it's going to bounce now.
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Potential bounce right in the max C zone... https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15355&p=650096&viewfull=1#post650096

Is it the bottom, only the market can tell us that after it has bottomed, can it go lower, of course it can.
The number of "bargains at these prices" comments I see is amazing, you would be better off in a casino betting on red than trying to bottom pick in a falling market.

Saw a comment on Robusta's thread stating "we don't know what the market will do next", don't worry about what it will do next, work with what it is doing now.

Eventually it will go up, then we WORK WITH that situation, not try to pre-empt it.
 
It is 22C in Townsville at present, a glorious day, some high cloud.

It was 11C overnight, chilly as expected for this time of year.

I have been away, anything happening in the markets?

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
It is 22C in Townsville at present, a glorious day, some high cloud.

It was 11C overnight, chilly as expected for this time of year.

I have been away, anything happening in the markets?

gg
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and your cash is worth the same today as it was yesterday gg ;)
 
Having learned to cut losses on bad investments, (and transfer the capital to somewhere I can be more optimistic about - even it is just a boring savings account), I can't help joining the chorus of other posters questioning the wisdom of holding on for dear life in the face of heavy losses. Of course now might not be the "right" time to sell (nobody knows), but it is a good time to make sure you have a sensible plan for limiting the extent of further losses.

When something bad happens to your investment, and things don't go the way you expected, and you don't have a well thought-out plan to deal with what has just happened, it may be wise to consider common emotional pitfalls which get many investors and traders into trouble:

http://www.etftradingsignals.com/are-these-4-emotional-pitfalls-sabotaging-your-trading/

Are These 4 Emotional Pitfalls Sabotaging Your Trading?
By Jeffrey Kennedy

I actually found 5 mentioned in the article...

  • “Lottery Syndrome.”
  • “Inability to Admit Failure.”
  • “Fear of Missing the Party."
  • "Chasing one seemingly hot market after another."
  • “Systems Junkie.”
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
It is 22C in Townsville at present, a glorious day, some high cloud.

It was 11C overnight, chilly as expected for this time of year.

I have been away, anything happening in the markets?

gg
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You sound like my dad!

Just left for a 3 week holiday where he will be out of reception.

Not a care in the world about the market "i'll wait it out, just like i did last time"

I guess that gave me a false sense of security with what my plan should be, because i respect him and his opinion, especially with investing.

Just wish i could be that carefree.
 
2bob bit said:
It's funny but 2 songs from the clash come to mind today.

"Should i stay or Should i go" and "London's burning"
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Well I've been singing "Standing on the Outside": Cold Chisel for a few weeks now. And happy about it.

I have been looking at all these bargains and keep thinking it can't go much lower. Then tomorrow comes and down they go again. I managed to get out reasonably early during GFC1 but bought back in at most of the sucker rallies, not wanting to get left behind only to have to bail again with less capital. Then when when the recovery actually commenced in March 09 I was a bit gun shy and missed quite a bit of the boat.

I plan to keep my distance until things at least flatten off, but when you get a "V" shaped recovery/bounce it is hard not to want to jump back in with both feet. The fear of being left behind or missing out is a powerful driver. It is times like this when tight hard stops can save you a crap load of money. However, it is much easier saying it than doing it.

Good luck to those still holding and to those planning to jump back in.

I don't plan to be singing "Catch a Falling Knife and Put it in Your Bottom Drawer" :)
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Private debt to gdp around 160-170%, 2nd or 3rd in the world

My thoughts....

High Australian employment dictating corporate profits will surely have to put a floor on the values of those companies most exposed to local economic conditions?

Market to tank or shoot up on the Fed announcement tomorrow?


I'm ready to buy some more :popcorn:
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Public debt is concentrated, this means, is all in the government hands, if the government fails, the whole economy is in deep trouble, have a look at Japan to see what the future for the USA may look like. As a rule, you should avoid any economy with a public debt to GDP greater than 60% (this is even a rule for membership of the EU, it looks like is not a rule to stay in there:confused:)

Private debt in the other hand is distributed between the market players, some households have enormous quantities of debt and some others have low or none. When trouble comes, the ones indebted get in trouble and go bankrupted, similar to what happened in GFC I when corporations that had high levels of debt went broke (B&B, ABS).

High Public Debt should make you think avoiding a whole market altogether.
Private debt should make you cautions, in this case, invest in companies that provide basic services or have leverage to Asian emerging economies (WOW, BHP).

To all the sellers in this forum, remember that even for the best chartists out there is almost impossible to predict the bottom, therefore if your plan is to buy cheaper later on you may miss the rebound altogether, is worth asking yourselves the question: “if you sell when the market is cheap, is your plan to make a profit solid?”;)

Good luck to all :D
 
Muschu said:
I hesitate at the "lol". I am also in cash but I respect the tough decisons that others have had to make -- and surely no 2 sets of circumstances are identical.

Have people who have sat in cash consistently these past several years done the right thing by themseleves and their capital? Absolutely if this is their considered stance.
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You seem to rather be admonishing Sails for her comment, Rick. I don't see where she has 'sat in cash consistently' or where she's suggesting anyone else should do so. As a very experienced options trader, I'd be surprised if she had.

I prefer to respect the positions, strategies and views of others - whether they be 26, 46 or [like me] 66.
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Sure. However, inevitably some of the comments on this thread are bound to be what I'd say are pretty sensible responses to the bewilderment that's being expressed by inexperienced people who have never had the, um, challenging experience of a market rout.

As such, I'd say most of these responses are offered in an attempt to be helpful which most of them indeed are.



tech/a said:
AN IMPORTANT DILEMA.

One that many find themselves in and one Ive faced many times.
What choices.

Firstly---the adage Ive seen here---if it is undervalued and a good stock then why sell it.---because there is a good chance that world economic forces could re value the company due to their impact upon it.---somehwre down the track---in other words what bis value now may not remain so and may not be seen as value by investors in the future.

Secondly.
Whats changed.?
There is still massive debt which is not going to be paid in Europe unless the IMF come to the party. So European union is STILL doing very little to overcome the issue of insolvent countries.
The US STILL prints money to increase its debt and increase its IOU's.

Until these issues are addressed and solutions implemented the next bull market will be a distant idea.

My personal view is this has a long way to go to the downside.
Sure there will be periods of revival and they WILL be MET by the many who are in your position who will see this as an opportunity to get SOMETHING back.
Resistance will be ever present.
As such new highs and even a decient recovery is in my view very distant.
Lower lows and even very lower lows over the next 12 mths are highly likely.

Rescue packages wont cut it.The world has seen that they are no more than bandaids used to stem a hemorrhage.

So what to do.

Beside hindsight:
You can wait for a bounce---you run the risk that any bounce will not reach todays levels.
You sell x% of your position NOW.
You protect your positions with a hedge like a short index (Future) position.(If I was still in the market this would be my choice).

Its very common for people to hold positions infinitum when the LOSS becomes too painful to take. If it was too painful Friday its like a heart attack today.

Learn from this.
RISK is NO 1
DONT be a hero.
Be DECISIVE.
Exiting too early is preferable to exiting too late.

And as RADGE SAYS

It doesnt matter that your wrong---just how long you stay wrong!
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tech/a said:
I know.
Friday it was 10% today 22%
in a month could be 40% or 10% or + 10%
The only thing you know for sure is TODAYS liquidated value.
So far NO CHOICE has been very costly.
If thats your choice then EXPECT a similar result.
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I'd suggest everyone who is feeling afraid/confused should consider printing off the above post and keep it in front of them all the time.

alexc2005 said:
Wow, i admire your ability to take losses. It really is not an easy thing to do.
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Alex, you're right: it's probably the most difficult single thing to learn. Don't feel bad that you're finding it so.
Learn about stop losses, protecting your profits and protecting your capital.
 
derty said:
I plan to keep my distance until things at least flatten off, but when you get a "V" shaped recovery/bounce it is hard not to want to jump back in with both feet. The fear of being left behind or missing out is a powerful driver. It is times like this when tight hard stops can save you a crap load of money. However, it is much easier saying it than doing it.
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I feel exactly the same.

Interesting day today so far, all of a sudden the All ords is in the green, earlier having been more than 5% done. Not to mention the aussie dollar. Strange times
 
I've been watching sky business channel today and all the guest brokers/anylasts have been very bullish the last two days which makes me think there is still allot more to come lol.

Reminds me of 2008 when stocks went from Good value > Great value > Bargin price > a once in a decade buy!

How quickly we forget!
 
lenny said:
I've been watching sky business channel today and all the guest brokers/anylasts have been very bullish !
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I watch that show from time to time as well.

I don't take much notice of those brokers/analysts, they always seem to be too optimistic and are pushing their own barrows.

One very learned broker/analyst around the middle of 2010 said he thought the All Ords would reach 6300 by the end of 2010.

Seriously? yeah, right.:rolleyes:
 
Only one word... Stunning.

I think this is the market (and those earlier-rising East coast US traders) fronting running the Fed for tonight.

The question remains whether Benny B pulls out a bazooka or just a water pistol.
 
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