Just received this via email.
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Com...athonAcquireHilcorpEagleFordAcreageAUTComment
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Com...athonAcquireHilcorpEagleFordAcreageAUTComment
AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
- Start date
Hilcorp announces that Marathon Oil has accquired its stake in the Sugarloaf ....Aurora up 43 cents (12.2%) to $3.95.......... this on the back of the TSX down 2% and the DOW down 2,2%.... makes one wonder what the increase in share price may have been if the DOW and the TSX had not had such a hard night.... 
AUT on the TSX has been up to and closed at $3.95 overnight
the preopens trades on AUT this morning look great
08:15:40 AM 3.763 25,100 94,451.30 OS XT
08:10:27 AM 3.737 10,000 37,370.00 LT XT
08:10:05 AM 3.577 20,000 71,540.00 LT XT
08:09:51 AM 3.510 20,000 70,200.00 LT XT
08:09:07 AM 3.461 110,000 380,710.00 LT XT
Could be in for a huge day
the preopens trades on AUT this morning look great
08:15:40 AM 3.763 25,100 94,451.30 OS XT
08:10:27 AM 3.737 10,000 37,370.00 LT XT
08:10:05 AM 3.577 20,000 71,540.00 LT XT
08:09:51 AM 3.510 20,000 70,200.00 LT XT
08:09:07 AM 3.461 110,000 380,710.00 LT XT
Could be in for a huge day
skc
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Hilcorp announces that Marathon Oil has accquired its stake in the Sugarloaf ....Aurora up 43 cents (12.2%) to $3.95.......... this on the back of the TSX down 2% and the DOW down 2,2%.... makes one wonder what the increase in share price may have been if the DOW and the TSX had not had such a hard night....
Can someone help me understand the lastest announcement? Marathon spent $3.5B to buy 141,000 net acres which is ~$25K per acre.
AUT has net acreage of 15,760. So at $25K/acre that's ~$400m. Compare that with AUT market cap of $1.35B. I understand that quality of acres matter but the flowrates in the announcement didn't really sound like a 3.5x mark up.
Why such big discrepency? Have I missed something completely?
McCoy Pauley
Get out of here Budweiser!
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A beacon of green in a sea of red this morning. Well done to all holders. Unfortunately, I am no longer a holder.
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Refer to the comment I made before about AUT being a great play for over a year... this type of stock will keep bouncing back due to the fundamentals and the odd bit of luck that comes with prime acreage.
I don't really get it either, it uses p90 whereas everyone else i see uses p50 for recoveries and uses 3p instead of 2p reserves as valuation base.
Reserves may be understated due to new tech and different shale zones as condog alludes to but p90 means there is a 90% chance that the reserve that will be recovered will be lower than stated.
I was considering doing a swing trade on this in the morning but it got bid up in the last few secs pre open so pulled the order.
Reserves may be understated due to new tech and different shale zones as condog alludes to but p90 means there is a 90% chance that the reserve that will be recovered will be lower than stated.
I was considering doing a swing trade on this in the morning but it got bid up in the last few secs pre open so pulled the order.
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Hey nice Morning today. is it possible Marathon Energy could be lining up an aggressive full takeover of AUT and EKA??
Could this happen before November 1?
Could this happen before November 1?
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What would you guys consider a fair price for your AUT shares? I was planning to hold these for years and recieve many multiples on my investment. LOL i haven't even held long enough to get a CGT discount :/
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$6.50 atleast and I still wouldn't wanna sell.
I have been watching 602 business channel and they have not said more than 3 words about this and nothing on the announcement... they have no idea... I even rang them up and sent out emails. This proves the value of the acreages 100%.
I have been watching 602 business channel and they have not said more than 3 words about this and nothing on the announcement... they have no idea... I even rang them up and sent out emails. This proves the value of the acreages 100%.
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Guys watch 602 business channel they I rang them up again and they said they will try to contact Aurora and have a story about this awesome announcement today.
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Great work BGG!
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Condog in your opinion is this takeover speculation warranted?
Business channel just had a small section on AUT, waiting for any other information.
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Hopefully we get something
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Hopefully we get something
Nice work BGG.
Congratulations to all those who bought in just last week at under $3, your timing is brilliant.
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Can't believe Condog hasn't come up with a few of these??
:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi
:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi
Sdajii
Sdaji
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Haha! You beat me to it, Assassin!
I was very busy today, but had trouble staying focused, forever sneaking peaks at my phone to check AUT (and EKA and TXN... nice to be holding all of the things I knew of which were gaining today! ). I quickly checked this forum in the afternoon and misread a post, thinking that our land had been purchased and we'd just gained because we'd sold out of a lot of acreage for a wad of money. I was suddenly less happy, but it was a relief to read the announcement properly!
It's great to see the portfolio surge ahead strongly on a bloodbath day like today! Let's hope tomorrow is a good day for the market, and AUT shines again
I actually considered taking some profit on AUT not too long ago... very glad I didn't! (although I would have used the money to buy stuff which has gone up pretty strongly since then anyway... not as strongly as AUT).
I tend to agree with Condog about today's movement being due to takeover speculation rather than Marathon. I can't see Marathon taking over Hillcorp's job being all that Earth-changing for us. Perhaps it was just a catalyst for a run which was overdue.
We seem to trade for more in Canada than in Australia, even taking the currency differences into account. I don't know much at all about dual listings, but it looks like you could consistently make a profit buying in Australia, selling in Canada, and so on. What am I missing? (or should I get myself set up and just keep buying here and selling there? ).
Congratulations to all holders
I was very busy today, but had trouble staying focused, forever sneaking peaks at my phone to check AUT (and EKA and TXN... nice to be holding all of the things I knew of which were gaining today!
). I quickly checked this forum in the afternoon and misread a post, thinking that our land had been purchased and we'd just gained because we'd sold out of a lot of acreage for a wad of money. I was suddenly less happy, but it was a relief to read the announcement properly!It's great to see the portfolio surge ahead strongly on a bloodbath day like today! Let's hope tomorrow is a good day for the market, and AUT shines again
I actually considered taking some profit on AUT not too long ago... very glad I didn't! (although I would have used the money to buy stuff which has gone up pretty strongly since then anyway... not as strongly as AUT).
I tend to agree with Condog about today's movement being due to takeover speculation rather than Marathon. I can't see Marathon taking over Hillcorp's job being all that Earth-changing for us. Perhaps it was just a catalyst for a run which was overdue.
We seem to trade for more in Canada than in Australia, even taking the currency differences into account. I don't know much at all about dual listings, but it looks like you could consistently make a profit buying in Australia, selling in Canada, and so on. What am I missing? (or should I get myself set up and just keep buying here and selling there?
).Congratulations to all holders
We're still within broker SP targets.
Jon Stewart's comment attributes a more than proportionate part of the purchase price to the more developed AUT acreage. Furthermore, he made soothing noises about AUT's ability to continue to fund the drilling programme, which, in any case, won't change much before 2012 even if Marathon hits the ground running.
By the end of calendar year 2011 we will have first results from the HiWay fracking experiment, from the closer, perhaps vertically offset (tapping into the Austin Chalk), drilling and from the re-work of Turnbull 2. Also, much of the 3p reserves will have been re-categorised to 2p and AUT will be on the final leg of drilling to secure leases by production.
I may be pinning too much significance on that re-work but I feel that it has implications for EURs. They are fracking in stages and the penetrations into the formation are at 200-300ft intervals.
The acreage could well have a totally different value by then and all that AUT has to do is sit tight and do what it was going to do anyway.
What this deal does tell us is that we're likely to have a partner with very deep pockets which will buy out our interest at any time if a price can be agreed. Its a partner that's investing in the region for the long term. I don't imagine that Marathon is buying in to prove up, sell and move on.
Jon Stewart's comment attributes a more than proportionate part of the purchase price to the more developed AUT acreage. Furthermore, he made soothing noises about AUT's ability to continue to fund the drilling programme, which, in any case, won't change much before 2012 even if Marathon hits the ground running.
By the end of calendar year 2011 we will have first results from the HiWay fracking experiment, from the closer, perhaps vertically offset (tapping into the Austin Chalk), drilling and from the re-work of Turnbull 2. Also, much of the 3p reserves will have been re-categorised to 2p and AUT will be on the final leg of drilling to secure leases by production.
I may be pinning too much significance on that re-work but I feel that it has implications for EURs. They are fracking in stages and the penetrations into the formation are at 200-300ft intervals.
The acreage could well have a totally different value by then and all that AUT has to do is sit tight and do what it was going to do anyway.
What this deal does tell us is that we're likely to have a partner with very deep pockets which will buy out our interest at any time if a price can be agreed. Its a partner that's investing in the region for the long term. I don't imagine that Marathon is buying in to prove up, sell and move on.
