AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
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Sdajii
Sdaji
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It's not just AUT though, all the oilers are getting knocked around lately, and if you look at where we were immediately before that brief jump up to $3.71, where we are now doesn't look that bad. Obviously the big picture is still brilliant; we're 50% higher than we were six months ago and more than 400% higher than a year ago. Even in recent history we're looking good; our share price is currently around 20% higher than it was a month ago. That isn't too tragic.
I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we went back to $2.50-2.60 from here, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we topped $4 in the near future and much more in the next six months. It's hard to weigh all the negative sentiment lately against the possibility of tighter well spacing, improved fracs, and the inevitable increase in production. As long as the price of oil doesn't severely crash we're fundamentally looking great, even if the market gets the spooks for a while.
Having said that, I took AUT profit for the first time today - $3.17 this morning. Not much, only about 15% of my holding. AUT has done so well for me it's the bulk of my portfolio and it seemed silly to have about three quarters of my eggs in a single basket.
I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we went back to $2.50-2.60 from here, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we topped $4 in the near future and much more in the next six months. It's hard to weigh all the negative sentiment lately against the possibility of tighter well spacing, improved fracs, and the inevitable increase in production. As long as the price of oil doesn't severely crash we're fundamentally looking great, even if the market gets the spooks for a while.
Having said that, I took AUT profit for the first time today - $3.17 this morning. Not much, only about 15% of my holding. AUT has done so well for me it's the bulk of my portfolio and it seemed silly to have about three quarters of my eggs in a single basket.
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We all need to remember that every day we endure this ordinary market conditions, AUT continues to de-risk and add value.
Regrettably, I too sold a small portion of my holding after 4 years of holding so I free carry a nice parcel but remain absolutely impressed with how management continue to progress what was a small explorer to a very reasonable producer with a great future.
Not many of the other small cap oilers ( which I also hold ) can say that.
Cheers.
Regrettably, I too sold a small portion of my holding after 4 years of holding so I free carry a nice parcel but remain absolutely impressed with how management continue to progress what was a small explorer to a very reasonable producer with a great future.
Not many of the other small cap oilers ( which I also hold ) can say that.
Cheers.
Sdaji,
I doubt it will go to $2.50 or 2.60. (you never know!)
There's too much value for buyers to let it drop that far. And with its future looking secure and schedule on track it's hard not to see the SP go up with the value.
The only thing as you mentioned is the rate at which the SP went up in such a small time. But still...
I doubt it will go to $2.50 or 2.60. (you never know!)
There's too much value for buyers to let it drop that far. And with its future looking secure and schedule on track it's hard not to see the SP go up with the value.The only thing as you mentioned is the rate at which the SP went up in such a small time. But still...
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The whole market is crashing, AUT however is positive for the last month, just shows you how strong this stock is.
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Unfortunately AUT relies on a strong US market and thus a big drop in the dow and we fall.... Same as the other oilers. Hopefully we gain some momentum soon, however, the US is a sick dog waiting to get the final bullet. I hope to get out before the gun is fired.
Demand for many forms of goods and services can collapse but energy has quite a high base demand. Besides which, 80% of the revenues come from liquids that can be sold on other markets and Marathon is obviously quite bullish.
Just hope the woes of Cushing don't impinge on Aut price progression
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+decline+hits+Alberta+crude/4968982/story.html
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/price+decline+hits+Alberta+crude/4968982/story.html
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http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=108179
Found this general information article about the EFS on HC forums. A nice read for those that aren't too familiar.
Found this general information article about the EFS on HC forums. A nice read for those that aren't too familiar.
AUT up to $3.63 on the TSX last evening, so far today it hit a high on the ASX of $3.51 no news relased to the market to account for the increase in share price. The other Australian small cap oilers EKA, SEA,TXN not showing any upward movement. When AUT reached a high of $3.71 a couple of weeks ago when Marathon aquired Hilcorp's share of the Eagleford it was suggested that the increase in AUT's SP was due to "takeover speculation", perehaps the spike today (6.2%) represents normal market trading fluctuations ?? or perhaps it represents a "seepage" of information that the general market is not aware of at this point .....
Sdajii
Sdaji
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I'm no brilliant technical analyst, but to me it looks like we're seeing a return to the recent highs. There was the marathon announcement, we shot up to $3.71, then had a retrace back to where we were shortly before then, and now that has settled out we're going back up to closer to where the peak was (and hey, maybe we'll even break beyond $3.70 and go higher again... fingers crossed). We're still a fair way short of our recent peak, so I don't think this is caused by any leaked news of tightened well spacings or anything, we're just sorting out the fluctuations caused by the announcement a few weeks ago.
If there has been some leaked news about something pleasant, well, that's wonderful, 'cause I'm holding lots I don't think it's that good... yet Shame I took a bit of profit recently, but fortunately I didn't sell much, and I bought some back after we broke $3.20 (just hours after selling at $3.17... oops!), expecting something like this to happen, and fortunately for me it did.
I'm surprised to see today's movement after the strategic reserves release. I'm also a bit surprised at the lack of discussion about Obama's move to release oil (unless there's a thread on it that I've missed). This release might mean some good buying opportunities over the next couple of months - he can't keep on using up strategic reserves forever, but in the mean time there should be a drop in oil price. You know global supply is tight if the reserves are being utilised, and once that supply is stopped the POO should increase.
If there has been some leaked news about something pleasant, well, that's wonderful, 'cause I'm holding lots
I don't think it's that good... yet Shame I took a bit of profit recently, but fortunately I didn't sell much, and I bought some back after we broke $3.20 (just hours after selling at $3.17... oops!), expecting something like this to happen, and fortunately for me it did.I'm surprised to see today's movement after the strategic reserves release. I'm also a bit surprised at the lack of discussion about Obama's move to release oil (unless there's a thread on it that I've missed). This release might mean some good buying opportunities over the next couple of months - he can't keep on using up strategic reserves forever, but in the mean time there should be a drop in oil price. You know global supply is tight if the reserves are being utilised, and once that supply is stopped the POO should increase.
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He didn't release much oil at all, very tiny amount vs what is actually being produced... I see the nymex oil bounced back...
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I was also extremely surprised to see the stock jump so much today given the release of the SPR. Oil is expected to fall further in the coming days for at least a month, so I was literally looking at the price.
Very good of course, but the question is, where is it going from here?
looking at the price.Very good of course, but the question is, where is it going from here?
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Who lit a fire under AUT today? Opened at $3.32, now trading $3.56, having hit $3.57.
Maybe some index funds need to rebalance before EOFY?
Maybe some index funds need to rebalance before EOFY?
Yeah great day... plenty more ta run in this litle gem IMO, missin Condog's informative posts ...anyone know whats happened to his esteemed self ???
from what i can see his last post was over a month ago, the forums definitely missing his insights.
