Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

HOG - Hawkley Oil and Gas

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I thought your perspective was as a trader... so isn't this normal if it's being trading for quick handy cash to put on the next surging trade, considering there's time between HOG announcements?

Is there an expected time-frame for the next announcement roughly? which I assume would be about the larger choke.

BrightGreenGlow said:
The general market seems to be disagreeing with you condog. However, for every stupid seller there is another buyer.... hope you are correct with this one though. I only have small package in HOG but am now starting to track it since it has started falling in the last few weeks. I have alot of trust in your research though and love reading your opinions.

Let's hope we gain from here towards the end of the month.
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bbker said:
I thought your perspective was as a trader... so isn't this normal if it's being trading for quick handy cash to put on the next surging trade, considering there's time between HOG announcements?
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Quick handy cash? Condog has labelled the fundamentals here and they look good. I don't see why anyone would be selling for quick cash? It has been flat line for 2 months. I can wait I was just expecting a better trend.
 
"Ease of liquidity". :D :p

I don't know. I can never judge buy/sell sentiment or the lateral scope of trading.

BrightGreenGlow said:
Quick handy cash? Condog has labelled the fundamentals here and they look good. I don't see why anyone would be selling for quick cash? It has been flat line for 2 months. I can wait I was just expecting a better trend.
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bbker said:
"Ease of liquidity". :D :p

I don't know. I can never judge buy/sell sentiment or the lateral scope of trading.
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You don't know what ... ? Isn't it obvious ...
Market sentiment is represented in the price action.
Is the price going up or down?
Answer: currently s/t down : (
 
ob1kinobi said:
You don't know what ... ? Isn't it obvious ...
Market sentiment is represented in the price action.
Is the price going up or down?
Answer: currently s/t down : (
Click to expand...

HOG is reasonably solid around the 46-48c mark and failing a few bad days on international markets this one is ready to move up. Whilst its trend is slightly down there is certainly no evidence of a rush by investors/traders to exit this one. Look forward to the next announcement.

Holding LNC TXN HOG PEN
 
They are going to fund development from cash flow.

Also note the drill pace is very slow, it can take 8 months for a vertical well, which either highlights pathetically inept russian rigs, or very very tight hard rock.

So they will be drilling Chets soon and then the next well near #201.

If we get a good result at Chets or near #201 this thing will imo rocket.

Check out thier january presentation. Page 12 and 15. Note however they so far are well in front of that schedule.
Full field development planOver the next few weeks the reservoir data from the well will be used to update the reservoir model and a full field development plan is currently being drawn up.
Well #201 is expected to generate significant cash flow for Hawkley. Further information on revenue will be released once production has stabilised.
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progress 2.pngprogress 1.png

Guys make sure you do your own research and seek good advice if you can find it. This is an early play and as such is high risk and high potential reward. It could fall flat on its face. But it is off to a very good start which somewhat derisks it, as its managed to get commercial flows from its first well at a more significant flow then lots of early phase producers would have from 2-3 wells.
 
Look forward to seeing the flows with the 9mm choke at sorochynska well 201 and further development plans.

They have appeared to be transparent with the announcements and kept things low keyed the best they can.

They probably don't want to come under the microscope of the asx with a 20% day.
 
Like I said last night the transparency is now there no need for a speed ticket from asx.

Wow!

45 million dollars revenue a year for the first well alone for 7 to 8 years. Second well in next 12 months will double revenue.

Are these higher than the Hartleys audit?, I thought they forecast 14.2 million dollars for 2011 and 69.4 million for 2012.

The good oil news is out there.
 
From AussieBulls.com

HAWKLEY OIL AND GAS ORD BUY - IF
ASX
Daily Commentary


Our system posted a BUY-IF today. The previous SELL recommendation was issued on 03.03.2011 (5) days ago, when the price was 0.4800. Since then HOG.AX has fallen -4.17% .


The market considers a bullish attack but still hesitating to do so. The previous bullish pattern is not confirmed today. According to our rules, it is by now null and void. However, a new bullish pattern is developing and another BUY-IF alert is issued today. It is the time to repeat the homework. Sounds tedious? Well, earning money is not easy. Keep an eye on after-hours and futures trading and digest all related news, events, economic data and the outlook of the world stock markets prior to the next confirmation session.

You must again check if one of the following three confirmation cases hold or not:

Does the market open with an upward gap? Your benchmark is the opening price. If the prices stay over this benchmark, go long.

Does the market open at a level, equal to or below the previous day’s close? The benchmark is that closing price. If prices during the session stay over this benchmark, go long. In both of the above cases, avoid buying if the prices during the session start coming below the benchmark.

Check also the rare case in which the market opens with a big downward gap but the day ends with a long white candlestick though still closing below the previous close. Such activity confirms the bullish alert and the benchmark is the closing price of the long white candlestick.

If one of these confirmation criteria is not met, or in case of a black candlestick or doji, the BUY-IF alert remains valid (without confirmation) postponing the confirmation search to the next session. Any long black candlestick following a BUY-IF alert, on the other hand, makes the signal void and invalid.

We do not suggest any new short positions given the new bullish alert. The short sellers should consider covering their positions if the market confirms the BUY-IF signal. Otherwise, existing short positions should be carried.
 
The market considers a bullish attack but still hesitating to do so. The previous bullish pattern is not confirmed today. According to our rules, it is by now null and void. However, a new bullish pattern is developing and another BUY-IF alert is issued today. It is the time to repeat the homework. Sounds tedious? Well, earning money is not easy. Keep an eye on after-hours and futures trading and digest all related news, events, economic data and the outlook of the world stock markets prior to the next confirmation session.

and so on Aussie Bull
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What a fascinating story from Aussie Bull....:confused: Long detailed discussions on gaps and candles and benchmarks. Sort of wondering why they didn't throw in some nipples of black cat or sprigs of virgin plucked rosemary or similar nonsense...

So where in all this analysis was there any discussion of the actual company business - the successful drilling of a very valuable oil and gas well with the very derisked opportunity of 2-3 further wells drilled in the next 12 months out of current cash flow ?

Perhaps Aussie Bull is more about the very short term art of picking week by week market rises and falls. But surely the very concrete reality of current positive cash flow and excellent drilling opportunities deserves consideration.

Otherwise I think it is just a load of bull..:2twocents
 
Well you had it go from 48 cents to 44 cents in 12 hours, so roughly 10% down and back up 5% with a surge at the close... Something is brewing that trend suggests and I havn't seen bad news, which is why a 20% day is possible and the carefull media releases.
 
traderclaude said:
Well you had it go from 48 cents to 44 cents in 12 hours, so roughly 10% down and back up 5% with a surge at the close... Something is brewing that trend suggests and I havn't seen bad news, which is why a 20% day is possible and the carefull media releases.
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For what it's worth I suggest that one of the reasons HOG's SP has fallen could have been the analysis from Aussie Bull. It's also worth recognizing that we have had big falls in the general market on Monday as a response to the Libyan oil situation which continued into Tuesday morning.

I think it is quite possible for market analysts to influence what is happening on a short term basis. Even if one didn't accept the rationale being offered you could still think that if enough other investors are influenced then the SP will be affected - and with that in mind decide to get out or set up a short term play

But my point is that absolutely none of this appears to have anything to do with the actual operations of the company. In HOG's case I believe these fundamentals are well worth recognising in any analysis rather than (relatively) obscure prognostications of quite short term events. (IMO)

________________________________________________________________

I think this discussion also brings up an important point. It seems to me that more and more buying and selling of shares is done for very short term profits with (by definition) no consideration of longer term value. In that context it is quite feasible to see shares rise and fall steeply with little logical reason. And we do see this all the time don't we ?
 
I think the final point you raise is an interesting one, there are many different reasons and factors at play with regard to ST Plays vs Value Investing

Currently the (5 day MA) volume of HOG ($) is approx 200,000 K. So at present we are talking about a low level of interest from the market.

Im not sure on the size of the trades being but through there $ value is obviously pretty small.

Until some larger players take some genuine interest the price can move around without any real conviction in either direction.

As to the Bull Report? it does seem like a lot of nonsense.

Any subscribers out there? Or is it free?
 
basilio said:
Perhaps Aussie Bull is more about the very short term art of picking week by week market rises and falls. But surely the very concrete reality of current positive cash flow and excellent drilling opportunities deserves consideration.

Otherwise I think it is just a load of bull..:2twocents
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Probably have to agree. The share price has been forming a nice wedge since around the 20th of Jan though and if it closes above 46c today, then it's still tracking nicely.

"I'm not bovvered." - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTNycV-rThY
 
Good times for gas production Barry FitzGerald March 9, 2011 - 9:09AM


It is a good time to be bringing on oil and gas production in Europe, the part of the world that has the most to fear from supply disruption in the Middle East and northern Africa.

And so it is with Hawkley Oil & Gas (HOG), last mentioned by Garimpeiro back in November last year when it was trading at 26 cents a share.

It has since motored to 46 cents a share, with the market warming to the group's earnings upside from its workover of Soviet-era oil and gas wells in the Dnieper-Donets Basin to the east of Kiev in Ukraine.

Hawkley is applying state-of-the-art well engineering techniques to achieve better results from known fields like Sorochynska and Chernetska than achieved by others in the past. Its first well – number 201 on its Sorochynska licence – is now delivering the goods.

At last reports, the well was producing at a daily rate of 5.29 million cubic feet of gas and 176 barrels of condensate (light oil). The gas is being sold at a spot price of $US9.32 a thousand cubic feet of gas and condensate is fetching $US104 a barrel.

[SNIP]

Hartleys analyst Dave Wall reckons that on a conceptual basis, Hawkley's net profit after-tax in the 2012 financial year could be $6.2 million, rising to $35.4 million in 2012 and $76.3 million in 2013. The stockbroking firm is close to the company and has set a three-month share price target of 68 cents a share. That's some 47 per cent higher than it is now.

[SNIP]
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Entire article: http://www.smh.com.au/business/good-times-for-gas-production-20110309-1bn07.html
 
Only 3 months to 68c they say... mmm... I kinda wish... is this reasonable condog? Im guessing is will only be the case if the new well goes as planned?
 

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