AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas
- Thread starter nioka
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Such a good stock to watch trade this arvo. some big orders going thru above the $2 mark.. and around it.
was tempted to sell and buy again soon but maybe time to hold a little longer and see how high its going to go before the 75mil @ 1.60 profit takers come in.
was tempted to sell and buy again soon but maybe time to hold a little longer and see how high its going to go before the 75mil @ 1.60 profit takers come in.
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Woooohooo, what a great day for AUT, up 25c on the back of the announcement and hopefully built up pressure for another 2 good days u finish the week maybe over $2.10?
Hey mate - I think it is only available to sophisticated and institutional investors. At first I thought the 1st Tranche is existing shareholders and the 2nd is for the sophisticated & institutional, but I can't read anything that suggests normal shareholders will be able to participate. Hell I would love to participate though. I feel like I'm in a threesome, and while the two birds go at it I just have to sit in the corner and watch!
Your laziness is not excused. If you are that lazy that you cant research then you will have nothing to offer the forum in return. Your post shows that you probably will add nothing and i suggest a change of attitude is required.
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- 19 May 2010
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Brilliant day today, exactly what I expected after the TH, a company that buys more than a dollar value with every dollar it raises, and then for that more than a dollar of value, it earns a very very high rate of return, on the order of 50%-200% depending on the "quality" of the well, the "bad" ones earning only 50%.
With my noob technical analysis I'd like to think that it settles above $2 somehow, either by floating water tomorrow, or wooshing upwards again.
PVF.
With my noob technical analysis I'd like to think that it settles above $2 somehow, either by floating water tomorrow, or wooshing upwards again.
PVF.
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Just had a quick flick through the presentation, all looks good from what I understand, couple nice points:
- Page 10 - 3 wells under excelsior on production, getting cashflow from this (once we have paid back)?
- Page 11 - 21 wells drilled, 17 on production by end of 31/12/10, another 5 wells coming online in the next 15 days.
Was good watching the hour of trading, reminded me of playing hungry hungry hippos! Everything getting eaten very quickly
- Page 10 - 3 wells under excelsior on production, getting cashflow from this (once we have paid back)?
- Page 11 - 21 wells drilled, 17 on production by end of 31/12/10, another 5 wells coming online in the next 15 days.
Was good watching the hour of trading, reminded me of playing hungry hungry hippos! Everything getting eaten very quickly
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..it's still within 12 months of june/july SPP, imo this won't be available to personal holders
condog, i recall you posted about the potential for acquiring adjacent acerage back in september...you were well on the money & thankyou for that & all your contributions. Am interested in cost per acerage vs that post & your thoughts on the cr...& nioka I agree it seems unneccesarily low, especially given today's action
so..until we learn more, am ever so crudely estimating based on nothing more than the acerage upside of a $2.05 - $2.29 range of the sp - 22% dilution subtracted off a 50% upside gives a 28% increase between the cr sp $1.60 & the pre-cr sp of $1.79.
am a lt holder of AUT & avid reader of this informative & occasional soap-opera thread..
condog, i recall you posted about the potential for acquiring adjacent acerage back in september...you were well on the money & thankyou for that & all your contributions. Am interested in cost per acerage vs that post & your thoughts on the cr...& nioka I agree it seems unneccesarily low, especially given today's action
so..until we learn more, am ever so crudely estimating based on nothing more than the acerage upside of a $2.05 - $2.29 range of the sp - 22% dilution subtracted off a 50% upside gives a 28% increase between the cr sp $1.60 & the pre-cr sp of $1.79.
am a lt holder of AUT & avid reader of this informative & occasional soap-opera thread..
Buffalo - yeh they paid a lot more then i thought they where going to , but at $120M for 5000 acres of 3P reserves they still got an absolute bargain as is reflected in the SP.
All surrounding sugarkane acerage is now tightly held and the only way to acquire more now is like AUT have just done.
Re: SEA - they have a LOT of amazingly high quality acerage (well over 100,000 net acres) and they do a lot of incredible deals where they sell of 5-20% of acerage parcels and get their entire purchase price , plus royalties back. Very very smart management imo. I havent run the sums, but i confidently say SEA 80c target by Euroz now needs updating again. Disc, this is only an opinion. I dont hold.
Some happy AUT holders this afternoon.
All surrounding sugarkane acerage is now tightly held and the only way to acquire more now is like AUT have just done.
Re: SEA - they have a LOT of amazingly high quality acerage (well over 100,000 net acres) and they do a lot of incredible deals where they sell of 5-20% of acerage parcels and get their entire purchase price , plus royalties back. Very very smart management imo. I havent run the sums, but i confidently say SEA 80c target by Euroz now needs updating again. Disc, this is only an opinion. I dont hold.
Some happy AUT holders this afternoon.
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Great day today for AUT and well worth waiting for, cant wait to see the action tomorrow will be hard to concentrate on work.
Im holding AUT EKA and SEA and all had a good day today, just wanted to share a positive news article on oil pricing and news like this is what would also be contributing to the rises in price of some O&G stocks
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/12/11/opec-keeps-output-target-steady-amid-oil-heat/
And lastly thanks to Condog I have held this stock and a lot of it for quite some time and id have to say your research has been a great help and when I take some profit (still planning on holding for a quite some time) I will be sending you a nice bottle for you to enjoy.
Im holding AUT EKA and SEA and all had a good day today, just wanted to share a positive news article on oil pricing and news like this is what would also be contributing to the rises in price of some O&G stocks
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/12/11/opec-keeps-output-target-steady-amid-oil-heat/
And lastly thanks to Condog I have held this stock and a lot of it for quite some time and id have to say your research has been a great help and when I take some profit (still planning on holding for a quite some time) I will be sending you a nice bottle for you to enjoy.
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Hey Condog. Thanks for that information. Because they did the capital raising for AUT at $1.60, on hostory will the share price head towards that figure or will the gains keep comming?. In your opinion is it a smart play to take profits now and get back in at a later date, or hold and enjoy the ride?
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Magic man,
Look what happened last time, 20/10 was the Cr announcement
price was 1.25.
closest it got was around 1.27.. then onwards and to where we are now
Look what happened last time, 20/10 was the Cr announcement
price was 1.25.
closest it got was around 1.27.. then onwards and to where we are now
In the past its fallen back to near CR levels. The issue date i think was 21st Dec for Tranche 1 , in which case thats when some renewed selling volume may or may not eventuate.
These instos though get offered these CR discounts everyday so inevitably some will want to offload, and surely they will have enough volume to cause a pullback. The danger is ho far is it going to run between now and then.
I feel the market voted with confidence today that they love the reserves upgrade achieved and they can see the value. So lets just hope our newly found instos can also see the value and look to profit rather then churn.
As for your strategy i cant comment other then to say buy and hold has served me well with this stock. but each person has thier own stratefy and tax concerns.
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Magic man that's a funny question to ask Condog when he has always clearly been someone to buy and hold this stock and has previously stated this many times, and so your also asking him to give advice that differs to his normal trading strategy in this stock. No one can really answer that question for you, but what you need to look at is in its previous CR it did fall back but it wasn't on the back of news as large as what we have just had. Also it is important to take a look at where the day finished today with about 2.5 million shares on the buy side vs 12,000 shares on the sell side so we could see a lot of upward pressure tomorrow morning, but it wont take long to see how that pans out.
How lucky are those buyers getting to buy shares at $1.60 after they have read the news, i bet they are still pinching themselves to check they are not dreaming.
How lucky are those buyers getting to buy shares at $1.60 after they have read the news, i bet they are still pinching themselves to check they are not dreaming.
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this has been a really great performer.. hope you had alot of $ in it early on and are now a millionaire !!
Your laziness is not excused. If you are that lazy that you cant research then you will have nothing to offer the forum in return. Your post shows that you probably will add nothing and i suggest a change of attitude is required.
Ouch! ... how do I respond to that ... maybe I won't offer anything, but then again maybe I might. I'd certainly like to think so.
Thanks Condog for the excellent research and also to the two guys who did answer my question.
Cheers
