AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

If CAP raising goes to the institutions or whatever at say.. $1.60 should we expect the SP to drop around that level? yes or no and why? I guess the normal a month of stagnant and lower SP levels and then a surge.. what do you guys think?

the gravity of this announcment is huge. It equates to a 37% increase in the net worth of the company using either an acerage or reserves estimate, and using cash flow models a 25% increase by end of 2011. So it is a massive price catalyst.

Is there dilution, well yes and no.

Its dilutive in the sense there are more shares and yes they will get a discount. But in reality without offering the CR the additional value would not have happened.

So imo there is a 13% dilution for an approx 37% net gain in value.

I certainly hope the offer price i s a lot higher then $1.60, as last time we where massively over subscribed and on the back of this announcement imo even at 175 i think we would be 50% oversubscribed.

I for one would be enormously angry if its too cheap. And have written to Jon stewart expressing such an opinion.

I cant see it being able to pull back much or for long, with the massive value that just got unlocked.

 

[Assasin]

I've been in AUT since early and the past CR's has seen a retrace nearly back to the CR price before moving on strongly.

A couple of things have happened since, that could change it this time.
* We are now a Top 200 stock which opens us up to a wider and stronger clientele. I bet some of those big Insto's would have loved AUT's Friday news.
* Aut has gone from explorer to a rather good producer with a strong balance sheet and business program. Very derisked IMO.

These things just might have a bearing on how this CR travels in the market.IMO

Personally, I am so over balanced with aut but are currently organising myself to top up pre- Christmas.

Currently holding AUT, SEA, EKA, MHM, XAM

 

[condog]

Personally, I am so over balanced with aut but are currently organising myself to top up pre- Christmas.

Hi i think anyone who has done thier research and realised that selling winners is bad will be well over weight in AUt...

Also for anyone craving infoo the other place...hc.... has a lot of discussion on this at present.

 

[philly]

AUT is in a trading halt this morning pending an announcement regarding the CR that it foreshadowed last Friday. This will give the market some time to digest the impact its proposed acquisitions in the Sugarkane will have on the future. I am a very very happy holder

 

[AngusSmart]

Nice new euroz evaluation update

4 Price Target: $3.38/sh

loveess it.


needs another new entry point.. dont think it will drop much lower with this new raising.. or it will be pretty premature and quick upwards..


The deal expands AUT’s existing WI in the Sugarkane Field, Texas:

4 Sugarloaf AMI to 15.7% (prev. 10%);
4 Longhorn AMI to 31.9% (prev. 25%);
4 Ipanema AMI to 36.4% (prev. 30%).

The acquisition will also result in a 9.1% participating interest in the adjacent Excelsior AMI.

 

[Magic Man]

This all sounds spectacular. What can we excpect from the share price in the next 6 months?

 

[condog]

Well Auroz are saying $2.97 to $3.38 in 6 months imo.

My forward cash flow projections, that gave me a Dec 2010 value of $1.59, give me a $4+ valuation for Dec 2010 prior to the extra NRI and 20 wells.

 

[HEA815]

Condog - question of fact. Is that sp valuation for Dec 2011? I'd love it if it was Dec 2010.

 

[Sdajii]

I noticed that too. I assume it's a typo for 2011. $4 in the next two weeks would be lovely, but I don't have my hopes up. $4 in one year seems fairly realistic.

 

[condog]

Condog - question of fact. Is that sp valuation for Dec 2011? I'd love it if it was Dec 2010.

Yeh sorry 2011

Amazing valuation put out by Euroz, should really kick things along after the inevitable profit takers.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Where can I find euroz website guys and other raters like bakers etc.......

 

[ParleVouFrancois]

A quick google search of "Euroz" gives me this as the first result.

http://www.euroz.com.au/

I loled, and obviously just google Baker Steel for their site, I've been to it but they don't reveal too much on it. Secretive lot those lads, but I know they are very very long on gold/gold producers.

PVF.

 

[skyQuake]

Where can I find euroz website guys and other raters like bakers etc.......

Looking for confirmation bias?

I'm bullish AUT but not because of Euroz or any other broker targets

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Nah just like to get a lot of ideas then pick one that seems to most thought out and logical.... obviously I value condogs thoughts as he has been pretty much spot on so far.... Comsec has an indicative price of $1.865 at the moment if that helps anyone... and as for google... I tried that and it didn't come up at all. weird.... thanks anyways!

 

[Magic Man]

Hey Condog,

Your evaluations for AUT sound very well researched. Just wondered if you had the time to give us an evaluation on Sundance Energy?

Thanks ;-)

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

I hold SEA too... maybe better to private message condog to get him to post over there....

Well no news yet on the CR news from AUT and market is now suspended. Will we get an announcement today or after trading hours??

 

[Joe Blow]

Magic Man: To private message an ASF member click on their name and select the "Send a private message to (user name)" option.

A reminder to all that all padded out posts will be removed. If you can't think of 75 characters of meaningful content to contribute to the thread then please refrain from posting until you can.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

CR raising is at $1.60 ... mmm if only it was higher... this is the announcement..

AURORA TO RAISE A$120 MILLION TO FUND EAGLE FORD SHALE ACQUISITION
● Underwritten placement to raise approximately A$120 million
● US$120 million Eagle Ford Shale Acquisition fully funded
● Acquisition provides increased working interest in ‘liquids rich’ Sugarkane Field
● Development funding for increased position in place
A$120 million Equity Raising
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (ASX:AUT) (Aurora) is pleased to announce it has reached agreement
for a A$120 million underwritten equity raising via a two tranche offering of 75.0 million securities
consisting of 68.562 million ordinary shares (Shares) at A$1.60 per Share and 6.438 million special
warrants (Special Warrants) at C$1.60 per Special Warrant to institutional and sophisticated
investors (Underwritten Placement). The Underwritten Placement issue price represents a 9%
discount to the five day volume weighted average price of Shares prior to announcement of the
Acquisition (as defined below).
As previously announced, Aurora has agreed to acquire additional working interests across the
three Areas of Mutual Interest (AMI’s) in which it currently participates (Longhorn, Ipanema and
Sugarloaf) and a fourth adjacent area known as Excelsior (Acquisition) for US$120 million cash.
All four AMI’s are located within the Sugarkane Field, onshore United States, in the liquids rich area
of the Eagle Ford shale trend
Euroz Securities Limited is acting as Lead Manager and Underwriter for A$60 million of the offering,
with TD Securities Inc. and GMP Securities L.P (as Co-Lead Underwriters) together with
FirstEnergy Capital Corp underwriting A$60 million of the offering.
Executive Chairman of Aurora Jon Stewart commented, “We are delighted by the response of
existing and new shareholders, including a number of new international shareholders, to this highly
accretive acquisition which will see Aurora’s net 3P reserves increasing 50% to 84 million barrels of
oil equivalent. I expect this transaction to be a successful one for all shareholders.”
“Combined with existing cash reserves, the Underwritten Placement will provide Aurora with
sufficient funds to close the Acquisition before the end of this calendar year, and around A$90
million to fund a larger development campaign associated with the increased Sugarkane Field
working interests. Aurora remains conservatively funded with significant cash reserves and no debt.
I am appreciative of the very significant efforts of Aurora staff and advisors, the Vendor and their
advisors and our Lead brokers Euroz Securities, TD Securities and GMP Securities for their
considerable contributions to the transaction in a tight timeframe."Sugerkane Field Acquisition
Key aspects of the Acquisition are as follows:
● Acquisition of 3/16ths of an existing joint venture partner’s working interest in three
Sugarkane Field AMIs which Aurora already participates in, plus exposure to an additional
AMI, being Excelsior.
● Aurora acquires an additional 5,100 net acres, increasing its total Sugarkane Field net
acreage by approximately 50% to over 15,600 acres.
● Aurora acquires estimated additional net 3P reserves of 28 mmboe, increasing Aurora’s net
3P reserves by 50% to 84 mmboe.
● The acreage to be acquired is all located within what Aurora considers to be the “sweet
spot” of the Eagle Ford Shale trend.
● All additional acreage operated by Hilcorp Energy Inc.
● The Acquisition involves additional acreage within the Company’s existing area of focus and
represents a low risk acquisition of acres under development.
● The enlarged reserves position offers significant growth potential with the same potential
reserves upside identified by Aurora in its existing interests.
● Aurora will now participate in approximately 60 new wells during calendar year 2011 for a
total of approximately 80 wells across the 4 AMI’s by the end of 2011.
● Settlement of the Acquisition is scheduled to occur before year end.
Underwritten Placement
The Underwritten Placement will be made in two tranches:
● Tranche 1 comprising the placement of 45,250,920 Shares to raise A$72,401,472 and
3,589,080 Special Warrants to raise C$5,742,528 (before costs of issue) to be issued under
the Company’s 15% capacity under Australian Securities Exchange Limited (ASX) Listing
Rule 7.1; and
● Tranche 2 comprising the placement of 23,311,080 Shares to raise A$37,297,728 and
2,848,920 Special Warrants to raise C$4,558,272 (before costs of issue), subject to
shareholder approval at a general meeting to be held on or around Monday, 24 January
2011. Tranche 2 is also conditional upon completion of the Acquisition by 24 January 2011.
The Acquisition is expected to close by 31 December 2010.
The ordinary shares will rank equally with existing fully paid ordinary shares. Each of the Special
Warrants is exercisable at any time to acquire, without additional consideration, one ordinary share
in the capital of the Company which will rank equally with existing ordinary shares.
Following the completion of Tranche 1, the Company intends to file a prospectus in Canada
qualifying the distribution of the ordinary shares issuable upon the exercise of the Special Warrants
not previously converted.
Each Special Warrant converts to one Share on the date that is three Business Days following the
date of issue of the receipt for the final prospectus to qualify the distribution of the Shares
underlying the Special Warrants in Canada; or at any time before that date at the election of the
holder in accordance with the Special Warrant Indenture governing the issuance of the Special
Warrants.Settlement of Tranche 1 of the Underwritten Placement is expected to occur on or around 22
December 2010 and settlement of Tranche 2 is expected to occur on or around 25 January 2011
(subject to shareholder approval and closing of the Acquisition).
Use of Funds
The proceeds from the Underwritten Placement (net of underwriters fees and transaction costs) will
be used:
● to fund the Acquisition;
● to fund the Company’s share of further drilling costs associated with its existing and
expanded position via the Acquisition within the Sugarkane Field; and
● to fund general working capital.
Yours sincerely
AURORA OIL & GAS LIMITED
Jon Stewart
Executive Chairman

 

[AngusSmart]

from the new presentation material pdf.. so we know longhorn, ipanema, sugarloaf, and now excelsior.. but the orange area below excelsior?? is this part of hilcorps area? who owns them acerages and will they be on the cards in future? reason i am asking, is around sugarloaf longhorn etc there is no colour.. but now a mysterious one in orange..

good news on the c/r tho it was pointed out a few days ago so no surprise!

cant wait to be back trading to see where this goes.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

SP is now up 14 odd cents. great news, people are liking this Heavy buying and very limited selling, hopefully we don't see many profit takers... holding up so far