AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Lert]

Back into AUT today at 1.635, thought the asx200 news is massive for AUT. Kinda happy it made it to 1.70 finish. So big gain on day one... if only I didn't sell them at 1.24 haha. Glad to be back coming up to Christmas too.

Congrats on getting back in.. Different story from me.. I had a forgotten sell order in at $1.73. I went out for a while and found they were sold when I got home. Been in since 50c so not out of pocket and CGT is not a problem. Hope to get back in a bit lower later on.

 

[nioka]

RE:

As condog has said before, cashflow positive is going to be massive news, but I think it's going to a bit longer than some people think due to the continued construction of new wells (brilliant in the long term, but "bad" in the short term regarding the cashflow positive moment).

You are right. there is a difference in being cash flow positive and having an income producing project. Hillcorp has to recoup the cost of the wells subject to the farmin agreement then the partners will recieve income from those wells. The cash flow positive point is reached when income exceeds expenditure.

 

[condog]

In my opinion there are 2 different definitions of cash flow +ve we can come up with.

The first one we will achieve is when we reach the point that the original hilcorp farmin wells are repayed and cash begins flowing to the balance sheet. That imo will be a monumental moment for AUT. We will be in a magnificant position, but by no means covering expenditure. If we stopped development we would be. Dont underestimate this point. When a company can halt further development and cover all its expenses, it suddenly attracts all the fundamental investors. This one is imminent.

Based on the repayment table in the Euroz preso which seems about 4 weeks old, we repayed 73% of wells on average in 4.6 months average. Hence approx 15% per month. If the table is 4 weeks old, then righ now its probably aroun d 88% repayed. Which means we should be cash flow positive on the farmin portion by very early Jan.

There have been delays, with the frac crews, the frac 3 phase issues and the restricted chokes, and it appears there are also pipeline capacity issues.

The second major one will be when we pass our net negative cash flow point. This ones not so simple. As it depends on changess in development pace. If we rapidly expend on wells then this point keeps getting pushed forward, whilever the pace of development is expanding. This one at present is estimated for about Q3 2011.

But if in late 2011 they accellerate and get an extra rig or 2 that point may get pushed out even further.

The key point is though, we have rediculously low repayment times. Ones that everyone else in the entire eagleford are praying and only dreaming of achieving.

sorry but im incredibly tired and thats about the limit for tonight.

 

[condog]

Its hot as hell, we had an Ok day for AUT holders, wink nudge.

Theres a lot worse shares to be in then this one. Beer o clock is screaming its head off.

 

[Assasin]

Surely it's time for some of these!

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi


Great time for AUT and still a lot more to come.

 

[easylikesunday]

Good to see my beginner portfolio starting to make some money!

My first trade was MDV. Brought at .007 and sold at .010 (beginners luck??)
I told my Dad about AUT and he got in at .86c but sold at $1.00

I decided to take the plunge and get in at $1.50
Seems like a good time to ride the wave!

 

[condog]

The only thing better then these
:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi

is this



Which some thought we would never see pink elephants with AUT. oH how wrong they where!

And Joe if your reading this ####, please have a sense of humour.

 

[condog]

Good to see my beginner portfolio starting to make some money!

My first trade was MDV. Brought at .007 and sold at .010 (beginners luck??)
I told my Dad about AUT and he got in at .86c but sold at $1.00

I decided to take the plunge and get in at $1.50
Seems like a good time to ride the wave!

Unless you have some fabulous CGT losses to write off, this has proven to be far better as a buy and hold then a tradeable stock imo.

Anyone whose hld for 12 months is up over 400% and only has to pay half CGT, when and if they are forced or stupid enough to sell. lol

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

I may regret selling before but I don't regret the profits, they helped out outweigh my TLS losses. So all good, I wouldn't go as far to say stupid but people... maybe cautious people.

 

[condog]

This will pull back inevitably. I dont mean to be rude when i say stupid, its more a bad choice of words.

But in reality just a glimpse at AUT's graph will show anyone, that its got a pretty consistent growth curve with pretty predictable periods of consoliddation, followed by growth.

IMO theres a hell of a lot left in the tanks of this baby. You wait till they unleash that acqusition news, plus some cash flow and when we get 4 rigs on site in mid to late 2011.

$4 wont be much of a challenge imo.

 

[condog]

December 7, 2010, 9:48 PM ET.
KKR Tops Off Another Oil And Gas Deal

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. is putting $625 million to work in the midstream oil and gas space alongside El Paso Corp., the latest natural gas partnership formed by the New York buyout shop.

KKR is acquiring a 50% interest in El Paso’s gathering and processing assets in Altamont, Utah, for $125 million. Additionally, KKR and El Paso have each committed up to $500 million to support midstream projects in other areas, including the Marcellus Shale and Eagle Ford Shale. The deal is expected to close by year-end.

http://blogs.wsj.com/privateequity/2010/12/07/kkr-tops-off-another-oil-and-gas-deal/


.US recovery to pick up pace: ISM survey

US recovery to pick up pace: ISM survey Kathleen Madigan From: Dow Jones Newswires December 08, 2010 6:41AM Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizePrintEmail Share
Add to DiggAdd to del.icio.usAdd to FacebookAdd to KwoffAdd to MyspaceAdd to NewsvineWhat are these?THE US recovery will pick up steam next year, although hiring will lag, according to the semi-annual ISM forecast.
The ISM surveyed purchasing managers in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing to gauge sentiment for 2011. The overall forecast projects optimism about the US economy for 2011, with manufacturers more upbeat than non-manufacturers.

The ISM report echoes the forecasts of many private economists who expect the recovery to firm next year. But the ISM outlook for employment looks a tad more cautious than other forecasts.

Among manufacturers, revenues are expected to grow 5.6 per cent, following a 7.9 per cent increase reported for 2010. Profit margins are also expected to improve next year.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-pace-ism-survey/story-e6frg90o-1225967359073

All good news imo for AUT

Economy to expand by 10 percent in 2011
People's Daily Online - ‎8 hours ago‎
China's economy will expand by 10 percent in 2011, and inflation will remain moderate with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 3.3 percent, ...

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90862/7224231.html


2011-2012 Outlook: Global economies to avoid double dip
Vancouver Sun (blog) - Jenny Lee - ‎16 hours ago‎
“Global economic activity has decelerated in recent months, with next year's growth in North America, ...

http://communities.canada.com/vanco...nomies-to-avoid-double-dip-scotia-report.aspx

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

This will pull back inevitably. I dont mean to be rude when i say stupid, its more a bad choice of words.

But in reality just a glimpse at AUT's graph will show anyone, that its got a pretty consistent growth curve with pretty predictable periods of consoliddation, followed by growth.

IMO theres a hell of a lot left in the tanks of this baby. You wait till they unleash that acqusition news, plus some cash flow and when we get 4 rigs on site in mid to late 2011.

$4 wont be much of a challenge imo.

I agree looking at the charts. Was just watching the Business Channel... someone said they expect AUT over the next 2 - 3 weeks to continue an upward movement towards $2.20 - $2.30. This will be great if it's true.

On a personal note condog, when did you last buy AUT, are you buying all the time or holding if you don't mind saying. Thanks mate

 

[nioka]

Posted this link on another stock.( borrowed from another forum). Worth a read.
http://www.hyperionfinancial.com/tei/tei-intro.htm:)

 

[condog]

On a personal note condog, when did you last buy AUT, are you buying all the time or holding if you don't mind saying. Thanks mate

I dont like to get into specifics much, but my last big purchase was in the 50's. I did by a few small parcels up to just over a $ . On a different note im gob smacked with the poor investing of some of our peers in AZZ. They have been in there ramping and disolusioned for months. Had they sold and bought AUT at any given point they would be miles ahead. And imo right now if they still sold and bought AUt they will be miles ahead of those who hold and flounder. Makes you wonder. Some i guess have to learn thier lessons the hard way. But it makes me wonder how hard something has to hit you before you notice it.

 

[condog]

US independents to buy into shale oil boom
By Sheila McNulty in Houston

Published: December 7 2010 19:49 | Last updated: December 7 2010 19:49

Plunging US natural gas prices are pushing independents that have long focused on gas to buy into the shale oil boom.

.....

“Almost everyone went too heavily into gas, thinking it was nirvana,” says Mr LeBlanc. “Everybody is trying to make a shift now. But like the Three Stooges all trying to go through a door, they can’t all fit.”


Full Article at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7ff5c24e-0227-11e0-aa40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz17YYSZkle



Is Another Oil Spike Upon Us?8/12/2010 1:15:02 PM

Once again Goldman Sachs has lifted its oil price forecast into triple digits. GS is not forecasting oil to reach US$100 in 2011, it is forecasting oil to average US$100 in 2011. To put that into context, oil is currently around US$90 but the 2010 average to date is only US$79. In other words, oil may yet spike in a similar fashion as it did in 2008.
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8178541

 

[condog]

Its a nice looking pre-open.

If holders are disciplined and hold tight like they used to then it might be a case of you want in you pay the price plus a big premium.

 

[Sdajii]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but AUT has now hit new all time highs every day for five trading days in a row! What a run! Actually, looking at more than a year of their history now just looks like one big run! I only wish I'd got in sooner

Thanks for the posts several members have put up, perhaps most notably Condog, and even more so, my friend who put me on to ADI/EKA/AUT in the first place. I read and watch with excitement pretty much every day. I was sad to have still been unable to afford to buy a house at 30 years of age. A few months ago it looked like AUT might help me get a house deposit together... it has done that and then some. I'm now wondering if it might even end up covering most of a mortgage if necessary, although I expect to be wanting to find another way to pay so I can hold on for longer!

I think I posted bananas at about $1.30.... probably due for more!

:bananasmi :bananasmi :bananasmi:bananasmi :bananasmi :bananasmi:bananasmi :bananasmi

More bananas some time after $2

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

A question: With AUT coming into the ASX200 this month will this lead to AUT rising once it's actually in the 200 list? Or is this already 100% factored in?

 

[condog]

imo its already beeen factored in. A lot of the recent buying imo is ASX200 related.

Id like to hear MIR's opinion on this.

 

[mir]

"Id like to hear MIR's opinion on this."

condog & BrightGreenGlow i believe it's the Canadians buying at the moment.
with the asx 200 there could be some more upside when they get in .