Ireland - Is it saveable?

[Aussiejeff]

Although their stock market has not quite reached the low of GFC#1 (as Greece is almost about to break through), it is now dropping inexorably & their really doesn't seem to be much life left in the chart for the land of lucky 4 leafed clovers & little people??

Dropped 3.8% last night to the red line.

 

[gav]

Their politicians are starting to get a bit wound up about it too...

***Warning: contains "unparliamentary language".

 

[Aussiejeff]

Their politicians are starting to get a bit wound up about it too...

***Warning: contains "unparliamentary language".

Spoken like a true Oirishman...

Good one, gav

 

[nunthewiser]

I like Ireland

Great countryside, Friendly and genourous people.

Lets save it.

 

[bellenuit]

doesn't seem to be much life left in the chart for the land of lucky 4 leafed clovers

I think you mean 3 leafed clovers of the variety known as shamrocks. The 3 leafed shamrock is the national flower of Ireland and St Patrick was supposed to have used it to explain the Trinity. The 4 leafed clover as a symbol of luck is, I think, unrelated to Ireland.

 

[pacestick]

wasnt that long ago its economy was considered so good that it was described as the celtic tiger looks like it was all smoke and mirrors

 

[billv]

wasn't that long ago its economy was considered so good that it was described as the Celtic tiger looks like it was all smoke and mirrors

Ireland was not alone.

Many EU economies and US states had expansionary programs before the GFC they took the easy money which was thrown at them and they were doing well.
Later the GFC came and EU countries and US States lost their growth and cheap finance dried up so it all started to fall apart.
It will take a while for this situation to turn around because they now have to cut deficits at a time when they should be spending to stimulate growth.

I think Ireland and Europe will turn this situation around because they are working on it.
Everyone seems to be concentrating on old Europe at the moment but I think we should not underestimate the US deficit and Debt which have been growing steadily and are reaching levels of no return.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

As James Joyce famously said.

Ireland is the old sow that eats her farrow.

I have been to southern Ireland on a number of occasions on business.

It is a nation run by developers and criminals, class ridden and until recently under the toe of godbotherers and the privileged descendants of a couple of hundred people who fought the British to obtain freedom one hundred years ago.

Being thus run, it was an excellent place in which to do business in a bull market, as ethics gave way to profit, and it operated like a giant Ponzi scheme

I would avoid it now as it will implode financially.

It is not salvageable. The talented will migrate as they have for centuries and Ireland will limp along, getting pissed and singing songs.

gg

 

[gav]

Well said GG. My partner is Irish and your post pretty much sums up hers and her families views. They left nearly 20 years ago. My partners mother returned earlier this year for a funeral and could not believe how bad her homeland has degenerated. Their govt is extremely corrupt. Yet for some reason their refuse to leave, and drink away their sorrows daily.

 

[Aussiejeff]

As James Joyce famously said.



I have been to southern Ireland on a number of occasions on business.

It is a nation run by developers and criminals, class ridden and until recently under the toe of godbotherers and the privileged descendants of a couple of hundred people who fought the British to obtain freedom one hundred years ago.

Being thus run, it was an excellent place in which to do business in a bull market, as ethics gave way to profit, and it operated like a giant Ponzi scheme

I would avoid it now as it will implode financially.

It is not salvageable. The talented will migrate as they have for centuries and Ireland will limp along, getting pissed and singing songs.

gg

You may well be right.

DUBLIN — As Europe’s major economies focus on belt-tightening, they are following the path of Ireland. But the once thriving nation is struggling, with no sign of a rapid turnaround in sight.

Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes, the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations.

“When our public finance situation blew wide open, the dominant consideration was ensuring that there was international investor confidence in Ireland so we could continue to borrow,” said Alan Barrett, chief economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute of Ireland. “A lot of the argument was, ‘Let’s get this over with quickly.’ ”

Rather than being rewarded for its actions, though, Ireland is being penalized. Its downturn has certainly been sharper than if the government had spent more to keep people working. Lacking stimulus money, the Irish economy shrank 7.1 percent last year and remains in recession.

Joblessness in this country of 4.5 million is above 13 percent, and the ranks of the long-term unemployed — those out of work for a year or more — have more than doubled, to 5.3 percent.

Now, the Irish are being warned of more pain to come.

“The facts are that there is no easy way to cut deficits,” Prime Minister Brian Cowen said in an interview. “Those who claim there’s an easier way or a soft option — that’s not the real world.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/b.../json8.nytimes.com/pages/business/index.jsonp

I feel sorry for the common Irish. They have little option (apart from an uprising) but to suffer the consequences of their leader's woeful mismanagement.

An unfortunate fate that is likely coming soon to many other cash strapped nations around this sorry a$$ globe.

 

[spooly74]

This was the final straw. We're finished.

 

[spooly74]

LOL

 

[explod]

You may well be right.


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/b.../json8.nytimes.com/pages/business/index.jsonp

I feel sorry for the common Irish. They have little option (apart from an uprising) but to suffer the consequences of their leader's woeful mismanagement.

An unfortunate fate that is likely coming soon to many other cash strapped nations around this sorry a$$ globe.

Yep my Great Grandfather woke up long ago left Ireland and joined the gold rush to Australia with two brothers to Redbank just west of Avoca in Victoria.

If we wanted to swing the pick we could prabably still knock up a few bob there today in my Great Grand Uncles paddock. Still called Paddy's Paddock by the locals to this day.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Is there one of these threads for EVERY country?

Pakistan - is it saveable?
Afghanistan - is it saveable?
Switzerland - is it saveable?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have made a quick trip to Northern Ireland and Eire within the past two weeks, and it is as ever, 2 failed states.

gg

 

[c-unit]

At least Ireland is doing the right thing economy wise and not flushing more public money down the train on stimulus money. They are drinking the awful medicine, but they will get better.

The Americans, on the other hand. Well they are just trying to prolong the party hangover by drinking more.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

The Americans, on the other hand. Well they are just trying to prolong the party hangover by drinking more.

The US are a different kettle of fish. They have so may weapons at their disposal that I wouldn't be surprised if this is as bad as it gets for them. They could devalue their reserve currency, impose trade sanctions or just go to war.

I'm not saying that they will do the right thing but unlike other nations, the US do have choices. The Irish on the other hand, as part of the European union, are in a bind.

 

[MrBoJangles]

It just might take so many years for it to get back on its feet.

 

[Alex Barton]

Most people live in an economic system that they don't understand. Regardless, the real truth of the matter is that Ireland brought this upon itself. The Germans have a strong economic model that works, it is the MOST successful economic model in Europe, yet they will be footing most of the bill for the Irish bailout! It seems to me there is a greater message here. A strong manufacturing base that provides equality for all its citizens allows an economy to grow sustainably. Did Ireland (indeed, does Australia) have such a strong economic base? I dare say no.

 

[doctorj]

Most people live in an economic system that they don't understand. Regardless, the real truth of the matter is that Ireland brought this upon itself. The Germans have a strong economic model that works, it is the MOST successful economic model in Europe, yet they will be footing most of the bill for the Irish bailout! It seems to me there is a greater message here. A strong manufacturing base that provides equality for all its citizens allows an economy to grow sustainably. Did Ireland (indeed, does Australia) have such a strong economic base? I dare say no.

The real truth is that it isn't Ireland they're bailing out, but their own banks. Germany and the UK will ensure Ireland get by, because if they don't there's a very good chance that the contagion will spread to their own banking systems.

Attached is a table produced by Morgan Stanley that estimates the exposure of a number of European Banks to Ireland. Note that it doesn't include the Landesbanks' exposure which is likely to be very high.