AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Huitzii]

Hey NUN

Do you see an entry point now the stock price is slowly dropping
or do your charts show a further drop in the share price

If so could you post a chart and a comment



James

Hi James, I will give you my take on AUT.
Firstly its a great stock and ive made my fair share on it in short trades.
AUT responds very well to good news ,and soon there will be more good news, that's almost a certainty.
68 and 90 day averages are pointing in a northerly direction and the 10 day average has taken a turn, but this is to be expected
In recent times its seen some consolidation and with a close of .098 IMO its a good buy at that price, but in saying that I think it has more movement in it to its support level of .095.
It could even go down as far as .092.
But if it drops below .092 I will be on the sideline
But as always the market decides and this is only my opinion.
Hi Nun Its good to see you post here again
As Condog says : Do your own research and seek advice.

 

[condog]

Price of gas at the henry hub is one of the factors at play here at the moment.

Down from 4.70ish to 3.70ish. http://oil-price.net/dashboard.php?lang=en#natural_gas_large

You can talk fundamentals till you're blue in the face but if the product you're selling is declining in value by 20% in a month look out below.

I'm back on the sidelines with a nice profit in the bank on the run up and looking to reenter again sooner or later.

Slipperz our products are exttremely liquids rich the vast majority of our products we sell in dollar terms are Barrels of condensate, sometimes nick named NGL's etc. Our product actually attracts a premium in most areas over oil, becasue its easier to split its components for production.

Hence this is the reason why most dry gas producers are limiting or holding further investment till prices are more economic and we are ploughing ahead.

You got to watch the oil futures not the dry gas prices, as the best indicator of our profitability.

 

[condog]

Plenty of news soon on frac results, updates on flows, spuds, then the huge one will be when cash flow starts rolling in Q4 which is rapidly approaching.

MACD havent crossed, but they can cross in one big day, without warning, so the buy signals not there yet for the traders. Having said that the stochastics look fantastic for tommorrow, as do the oil futures and rebound from Big Bens speech.

I honestly think the majority of the sell off lately was on the back of oil prices, and whilst in the short term there are still very high Western inventories, which will see the crude prices level off, possibly fall slightly again, the news from Big Ben imo will hold the medium term futures up nicely and may even start to retrigger $90 oil for next year.





Right now its in bargain territory, cant see it staying here long imo.

 

[condog]

Slipperz

From the AUT website 80% of revenue relates to condensate prices. Obviously an improvement in dry gas would be fantastic, but imo its unlikely in the short term and not necesary for AUT to be incredibly profitable.

The Sugarkane field has produced condensate at a ratio of between 75 to 300 bbl per mmscf of gas for the wells drilled in the field to date. In other words, on an energy basis, approximately 30% to 65% of the hydrocarbons produced is condensate (or light oil). On a revenue basis at current pricing, approximately 80% relates to condensate sales.

Of significance is the fact OPEC wants $70+ oil and Canada has difficulty producing it from thier prolific sands below $70.

So for a while at least it appears $70 is the support level.

 

[nioka]

merely opinion Bud and i am only TRADING it , nothing more.

Interesting statement. Only trading it ?. Why pick AUT? There are dozens of stocks that are better trading propositions than AUT. I note from your posts that you have not mentioned any other stock so far this month.

I have not found AUT a good stock to trade lately. Stocks like VPG show better variation with more liquidity and dependability.

Reference Type Detail Debit ($) Credit ($) Balance ($)
27/08/2010 C12891525 Contract B 100000 VPG @ 0.082000 8,229.95
26/08/2010 C12886653 Contract S 100000 VPG @ 0.090000 8,970.05 -
26/08/2010 C12884407 Contract B 100000 VPG @ 0.085000 8,529.95

or NTU
C12854326 Contract B 100000 NTU @ 0.120000 12,029.95 ( now 21c)

Which leads me to wonder,,,are you trading AUT or just stirring the pot. Not that I want you to stop as it does give another view but you may be encouraging others to trade it when it may not be such a good idea.

 

[nunthewiser]

Hey NUN

Do you see an entry point now the stock price is slowly dropping
or do your charts show a further drop in the share price

If so could you post a chart and a comment



James

Gday James.

Personally think the area marked as "area of intrest"(95-90) provides a nice low % loss on stopout point ... i would first like to see it bounce off 91/ 92/93 on VOLS but that may not happen due to the rallys on fri night so MAYBE worth a punt at any point around previious close if you can get it ( if it gaps on monday just be patient there SHOULD be a better entry than the auction/first hour exhuberence)

IF it Breaks the 90 area .all bets are off and that would see ME out to come back to later.( please ignore my line on chart as in wrong spot)

merely opinion Bud and i am only TRADING it , nothing more.

. I note from your posts that you have not mentioned any other stock so far this month.


Which leads me to wonder,,,are you trading AUT or just stirring the pot. :

I was asked a question.
I gave an answer.
Yes i trade AUT
No i am not stirring the pot.
Finding arguing with every goose that doesent like my opinion rather tiresome of late so only opening ASF and other forums when i get bored.
I used to use Forums/stockchat as a way of bouncing ideas around on my trades and potential trades, i have now taken up knitting and counterlunches instead. I am fine with that and it seems to work well.
Happy to try and help some here along the way when asked to . i was asked.i answered.

back to knitting.

as you were

 

[condog]

I too am intrigued as to why anyone would choose AUT as a stock to trade, and thats not a shot at anyone. But it seriously lacks liquidity and volatility, imo the two best aspects of trading stocks.

Having said that I would prefer to trade a stock i have a good fundamental understanding of, so the when the tide goes out im swimming with pants on.

So sometimes i trade EKA as iknow its play and its volatility is better then AUT, but from a liquidity point of vieew its pretty pathetic for trading. AUT i personally would find it very hard to trade, due to the liquidity, but then again that may be a reflection of parcel sizes.

Im left to assume if anyone is trading it, they are doing so with pretty small parcels or over longer time periods then a trader would normally prefer.

 

[nunthewiser]

nothin wrong with up to 50k parcels on this stock(move in and out freely even on gap days with a bit of gameplaying in the depths) , in fact some decent % swings to be had intraday and longer (weeks/months) look at the vols, breath the vols, they can tell you where your cash gunna mingle

different rules/position sizes/risk areas to each stock.

i have had a long term relationship with this 3 letter code on and off even before the namechange many moons ago ( first discovered by "nail" from commsec early 2000,s)

i couldnt care less what you longer term pundits have to say on its future/prospects/share price............ to me it is a another trading stock that provides a regular game if positioned correctly.

trade it / dont trade it..... if your looking for justification for not doing it, well its on the board and can be traded regurly.just may not suit the " gigazillionaires" that seem to hang out at this joint

back to counterlunches and seedy ladies

amen.

 

[condog]

Weekly Oil.com Article
United States Oil Consumption and Reserves: A matter of exponential growth and finite resources
It is a well known fact that the United States has been importing Oil since the 1970's because the home oil production cannot meet the rising demand. According to 2009 yearly average, the U.S. Crude Oil consumption is around 21 million barrels a day and home production is only around 5 million. Why are things escalating so fast? Why are resources running out at such speed? We will try to answer these questions on this article. There is no simple answer but it is all pretty much related to one single concept: exponential growth.

Within the last two centuries, advances in human technology has made the civilization completely Oil, Gas & Coal dependant, which are mainly used as fuel for diverse purposes. What makes Oil different is the immense variety of products that can be derived from it. A "brief" list of some of these products: Gasoline, Diesel, Fuel oil, Propane, Ethane, Kerosene, Liquid petroleum gas, Lubricants , other alkanes, Heating oil, asphalt, bitumen, Plastic, bags, toys, candles (paraffin), clothing (polyester, nylon), cosmetics, petroleum jelly, perfume, dish-washing liquids, ink, bubble gums, car tires, etc, etc etc.
So it is obvious that the modern industry is completely dependant on Oil.

However, the amount and size of Oil Reserves on the U.S. is - or was- enormous. It is in fact the third producing country after Saudi Arabia and Russia. So once again, why it is running out so fast? Answer is exponential growth in both population and oil-dependant technologies.


http://www.countercurrents.org/wild280810.htm
Plotting The Coming Oil Shock

By Matthew Wild

28 August, 2010
Peak Generation

A study based on the Hubbert model of peak oil suggests a coming global oil shock may begin as early as 2014 – which ties in with the timeline suggested in a variety of other reports and statements.

.........I recently considered three major energy reports published so far in 2010 which take a number of different views on the issue:

......Three independent reports, one consistent prediction – the world will be entering into a period of oil supply turmoil sometime between the beginning of 2011 or 2013.

......The Forecasting World Crude Oil Production prediction model" for global peak oil in 2014 is presented here (left). As stated above, the model suggests world conventional crude production will peak in 2014 at 79 million barrels per day, and promptly enter decline.



......
But what interests me is the culmulative picture that's emerging. Many different groups and agencies are talking about a coming oil supply crisis – whether they use the term peak oil or not. These disparate groups, spread across the globe, have considered various possibilities and probabilities – but are still talking about very similar possible outcomes. According to the various reports, we likely face an oil crisis as early as 2011, or as late as 2014.

 

[condog]

Peak oil alarm revealed by secret official talks

Behind government dismissals of 'alarmist' fears there is growing concern over critical future energy supplies

Speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch than they have admitted has been fuelled by the revelation that they are canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about "peak oil".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/22/peak-oil-department-energy-climate-change

 

[Slipperz]

Slipperz our products are exttremely liquids rich the vast majority of our products we sell in dollar terms are Barrels of condensate, sometimes nick named NGL's etc. Our product actually attracts a premium in most areas over oil, becasue its easier to split its components for production.

Hence this is the reason why most dry gas producers are limiting or holding further investment till prices are more economic and we are ploughing ahead.

You got to watch the oil futures not the dry gas prices, as the best indicator of our profitability.

Sure but there is that dry gas quotient of production as well.

Given the fragile nature of the markets at the moment any sort of negative indicator is going to have an impact on the sentiment of any given stock.

Most of the small cap oil and gas companies are treading water in my portfolio and getting hammered on any sort of bad news. AUT is no exception ( sadly).

Anyhoo hopefully we'll get a good start to the week and if there isn't any more drastically bad indicators coming out of the US we might get to claw back some losses that I'm sure most have been taking in the past few weeks.

 

[condog]

You can talk fundamentals till you're blue in the face but if the product you're selling is declining in value by 20% in a month look out below.

Yeh but slipz this was a pullback that seemed inevitable after a very strong run. Our product which is 80% based on the crude price has pulled back 14% in 5 weeks and now rebounded 3% in a day. We are still extremely profitable based on these figures.

And my main point is forget about the henry Hub, our profitability will go through the roof if the Henry hub prices rices significantly, but its been low dry gas prices for a long time now and hence AUT and all its smarte peers have switched focus to condensate only development. They are getting and selling dry gas as a by-product, but they arent targeting the dry gas generally at these prices.

SEA did a Enercon conference on Friday and stated they have all thier dry gas wells on hold till prices recover. If anything this dry gas glut gives us a competitive advantage as we are clearly extremely liquids rich, allowing us to profitably continue development at a faster pace then most if not all of our peers.

 

[Slipperz]

Yeh but slipz this was a pullback that seemed inevitable after a very strong run. Our product which is 80% based on the crude price has pulled back 14% in 5 weeks and now rebounded 3% in a day. We are still extremely profitable based on these figures.

And my main point is forget about the henry Hub, our profitability will go through the roof if the Henry hub prices rices significantly, but its been low dry gas prices for a long time now and hence AUT and all its smarte peers have switched focus to condensate only development. They are getting and selling dry gas as a by-product, but they arent targeting the dry gas generally at these prices.

SEA did a Enercon conference on Friday and stated they have all thier dry gas wells on hold till prices recover. If anything this dry gas glut gives us a competitive advantage as we are clearly extremely liquids rich, allowing us to profitably continue development at a faster pace then most if not all of our peers.

All well and good. Until the price of WTI drops $3.32 a barrel in a week like it did this past week.

As a commodity producer AUT is not immune from the general economic malaise in the US. If the demand weakens so does the price and the SP only has one way to go.

That's the point I'm trying to make here.

And realistically the picture in the US is pretty grim.

Unemployment is still way too high, the federal deficits are astronomical, house sales are stalling.

That's the reality of the market AUT is trading in.

 

[condog]

All true. The oil price takes all thise factors into consideration and if anything it may have bottomed, temporarily or permanently.

A bounce on thursday and a jump on friday with all futures up very very strongly. Seems at least for now to have possibly changed trend, too early to call but im thinking by about Wed we will know. There are some Fed employment numbers out on the 3rd sep so we will get a good reading then when the oil futres respond to that.

The best indicator of price and economic strength is the oil futures, those players have teams of analsts pouring over data, coming up with consensus forcasts taking into accoutn all factors.

And when it comes back to basics it the crude price that dictates our profitability, if AUT keeps progressing the way it does.

 

[Slipperz]

All true. The oil price takes all thise factors into consideration and if anything it may have bottomed, temporarily or permanently.

A bounce on thursday and a jump on friday with all futures up very very strongly. Seems at least for now to have possibly changed trend, too early to call but im thinking by about Wed we will know. There are some Fed employment numbers out on the 3rd sep so we will get a good reading then when the oil futres respond to that.

The best indicator of price and economic strength is the oil futures, those players have teams of analsts pouring over data, coming up with consensus forcasts taking into accoutn all factors.

And when it comes back to basics it the crude price that dictates our profitability, if AUT keeps progressing the way it does.

Lets hope those employment numbers show some improvement or you know where we're going

 

[condog]

Lets hope those employment numbers show some improvement or you know where we're going

I dont think anyones expecting them to be fantastic, as long as they dont dissapoint the analysts. Big Ben already announced he thought unemployment was too high, so the market wont be expecting brilliant numbers. However he also seemed to affirm currently he does not believe they are heading for a double dip.

You got to either sit back and say well he knows a lot more then i do and has every tool in the kit ti assess the real situation. Or i dont trust him and im going to buy bottled water, seeds, manure and a generator.

Im inclined to believe him and disbelieve the spin doctors selling papers for the moment. I think Ben would have too much egg on his face after last weeks upbeat comments if it was far worse then expected.

Right now, i know it sounds like a broken record, but the consensus was they believed him. With oil and the S&P up strongly.

 

[WRONG'UN]

Current AUT EKA comparative charts.
..............................................................................................

 

[J&M]

Hi James, I will give you my take on AUT.
Firstly its a great stock and ive made my fair share on it in short trades.
AUT responds very well to good news ,and soon there will be more good news, that's almost a certainty.
68 and 90 day averages are pointing in a northerly direction and the 10 day average has taken a turn, but this is to be expected
In recent times its seen some consolidation and with a close of .098 IMO its a good buy at that price, but in saying that I think it has more movement in it to its support level of .095.
It could even go down as far as .092.
But if it drops below .092 I will be on the sideline
But as always the market decides and this is only my opinion.
Hi Nun Its good to see you post here again
As Condog says : Do your own research and seek advice.

Hello Huitzii & Nun thanks for your replys

Seems to be holding at 96c 97c the Volumes are 345,000
that seems to as not a large volume or is this classed a as large Vol ?although some are small amounts of around 300 to 400

Looking at the chart it peaked at about $1.10 and the drop to 95c it would have been a good time to sell at $1.10 as its now been settled down to 95c 96c
I do understand the resistance level shown on the chart at 95 to 96

At this time I don't see a drop to 90 or 92 as Nun suggested
but how would I know ???

thanks for your help

To condog I asked Nun for a comment as all of yours are positive and as a learner I wanted his point of view no harm intended at all

James






'

 

[condog]

all of yours are positive and as a learner I wanted his point of view no harm intended at all

James

Thats cool but as a learner its probablu intuitive to recognise that when a stock goes up from 11c to $1.16 in under 8 months and analysts are still saying its target is significantly higher, one would have to be crackers not to be positive on it 95% of the time.

There are things that furstrate me like the time taking to frac , now , the Kowalick stuff up in Dec/Jan and the fact they havent hedged, despite me writing to them weeks ago when oil was over $80 and the futures went south.

But honestly lifes got too many bloody hassles to focus on the negatives on a stock thats arguably the best on the entire asx at present.

Personally anyone arguing against this stock, has been terribly wrong so far. Thats not aimed at the market timers that fluctuate, but why go searching for negativity on a brilliant stock.


Right now if your after a balnaced point of view, this thing was imo overbought as i suggested on my graph a few days before it dived, it broke north of its long term trading channel.

Right now its out the bottom of its channle and over sold. The blackline as of today actually touches the bottom of the channel.

 

[AngusSmart]

Right now its out the bottom of its channle and over sold. The blackline as of today actually touches the bottom of the channel.

View attachment 38680

Close.. should get to the bottom tomorrow perhaps? tho your trend line is a little higher and would touch on the chart i've done.. where are trend lines ment to really be anyway? they are just a rough guide correct?


someone call up your money your call and get them to cover it on tv