AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[McCoy Pauley]

What is incredible is that the market still has not factored in an expected 300% upgrade in reserves. Extraordinary stuff here!

I can't believe there was doubt lingering in my mind a few weeks ago about where AUT could pull a SP catalyst from. Well here it is everyone, and things are only just warming up!

I think a lot of the buyers late in the day are figuring on a release of the reserves report on Monday. AUT has talked about the release being pushed back to mid-August. Well, 16 August is the closest you can get to the middle of the month.

 

[condog]

yep agree at 3pm i posted on another forum i thought we might see a rush this arvo for the same reason. I was thinking maybee bumping around the $1 mark. But 1.06 even surprised me. I had some price sms alerts set and was pleasantly surprised at about 4.12 when they started beeping.

Certainly a good platform to be sitting at in anticipation of the upgrade.

Got to say if it is around 300% and a good portion of it 1P and 2P id be thinking we have to see some strong growth on a fundamentals basis.

Cant wait to see Hartleys and Euroz updates after the upgrade, id be thinking theyd have to go $2 plus or minus if the upgrade is in the order of Hartleys projections. Right now that saounds rediculous, but 1P and 2P is what the big end of town wants to see.

 

[estseon]

It certainly picked up after a weakish start. So did EKA.

My feeling is that Hilcorp is demonstrating what might be recovered with reduction of rates of decline being an important factor.

The broker is certainly bubbling with admiration for Hilcorp's operation.

The big changes might be recoverable rates and reduction of risk. The HC mix might be considered more favourable.

But there's still a lot of volatility in the oil futures market and that can be unsettling. Let's hope that the Company's presentations in HK and Singapore have attracted professional investor interest.

 

[condog]

From buy sell signal dot com

For all you tech heads even though i think this is a fundamental and news driven stock.

Just the huicy bits. My comments in italics.

Heading - AUT hits high for 8th time in 3 months
Get used to it if oil stays high as its a growth stock

Long-Term Rating (Fundamentals): 3 out of 5
Strange it was 2 a few weeks ago when it presented even beter relative value
Aurora Oil & Gas is Australia's 35th largest energy company with a market capitalization of $292.8 million. Among energy companies it has the 72nd highest total assets and 68th highest revenues.
Ordinarily this might scream overbought - but given growth phase and evidence os strong underlying asset growth imo its fine.

Short-Term Rating (Technical): 4 out of 5
Its price change has been positive in the short-term over 5 days, medium-term over 3 months and over the period of 1 year. Its short term rises have been combined with strong volume resulting in strong momentum rises over 1 day. Significantly its price of $1.06 is at a premium of 99% to its 200-day moving average price of 53.0c. Its 52-week range has been $1.06 to 11.0c; it is trading at a discount of 0 % to its 52-week high and a premium of 863.6 % to its 52 -week low. $1,000 invested exactly one year ago is now worth $7,852 of which $6,852 is a capital gain.
Recommended stop loss: 98.05c
Its 52 week low was rediculously underpriced and prior to suring up the funding, operator and program for growth it is now successfully implementing. It has successfully managed to raise the funding, secure potentially the best acerage in the entire Eagleford, secure a brilliant operator, prove the acerage and successfully drive down drilling times from 111days to under 22 days.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bearish Signals:​

Price/Sales of 76.14 versus sector average of 2.4 and market average of 1.5.
The Price to Book of 9.4 higher than average of 2.6 for the Energy sector and 2.4 for the Total Australian Market.
Garbage - this is computer generate rubbish. Of course its sales are relatively low, they are on a cost recovery and not reflected in the price. Ignore this dribble imo.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI™ - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bullish Signals:​

The price advanced 6.0% in the last week and soared 27.7% in the last month.
This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.9 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.99 times average for the month.
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.8% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 25.9% for the month.
In the Australian market of 1,251 stocks and 36 units traded today, the stock has a 6- month relative strength of 98 which means it is beating 98% of the market.
A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 80.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal. Both the 12-day EMA as well as the 26-day EMA are rising, another bullish signal.
The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 84.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 53.0c.
The 200-day MAP has increased to 53.0c.
In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high eight times, pointing to a significant uptrend.
No surprises, its been undervalued for some time and strong fundamentals, broker analysis and forward news program expected to underpin this growth imo.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 94.0c and a high of $1.06, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs. Today its volatility of 12.8% was 3.6 times its average volatility of 3.5%. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal.
One of the reasons i think its a poor day trading stock.
Volume and turnover period
There were 1,059,318 shares worth $1.1 million traded. The volume was 2.4 times average trading of 435,837 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 39.8% (or a turnover period of 2 years 6 months).
up strongly on strong volume is a bullish signal imo

Volume weighted price (VWP)
The price is at a premium of 19.6% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of 89.0c.
Given that this premium has been under 19.6% one hundred thirty-eight times and over 19.6% forty times in the last year, the downside:upside probability is estimated at 138:40 or 3.4:1.
Normally that imo would signal overbought, but given the impending reserve upgrade its entirely understandable and likely justified imo. May even turn out to be still underbought, depending on size of reserve upgrade.

SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Trailing one week The stock fell twice (40% of the time), rose twice (40% of the time) and was unchanged once (20% of the time). The volume was 2.9 times average trading of 2,179,185 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a week ago is $1,205 [vs $977 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital
gain of $205(or rise of 20.5%).
Trailing one month
The stock rose twelve times (52% of the time), fell six times (26% of the time) and was unchanged five times (22% of the time). The volume was 1.99 times average trading of 9,588,414 shares. The value of $1,000 invested a month ago is $1,277 [vs $1,018 for the All Ordinaries index], for a capital gain of $277(or rise of 27.7%).
Trailing five years
A three-bagger in the past five years, the value of $1,000 invested five years ago is $3,380, for a capital gain of $2,380.
The value of $1000 invested in jan when i started identifying this one is a four + bagger.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Significant Uptrend

Price volume trend
The price advanced 6.0% in the last week and soared 27.7% in the last month. This has been propped up by robust volume of 2.9 times average for the week and by firm volume 1.99 times average for the month.
Relativities
Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.8% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 25.9% for the month. Today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 95. In the Australian market of 1,251 stocks and 36 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 98 which means it is outperforming 98% of the market. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.
Moving average price (MAP) [with equal weightage to prices at close]
The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.99, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.99 40 times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 84.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 53.0c, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to 53.0c. An increase is another bullish indicator.
Breakout
The bulls are maintaining control with price open, high, low and close exceeding yesterday's levels.
Support
The support price is hovering at the 80.50c level. Volume traded at the support price zone was 1.9 times average during the six occasions when the support price was breached. In the last one month the first low was at 80.50c on Jul 30, the second at 81.0c on Jul 29. The third decline halted at 81.50c on Jul 22, the 4th at 81.50c on Aug 02, the 5th at 82.0c on Jul 14 and
the 6th at 82.0c on Jul 21
Supports what ive been saying but i thought support was at 81-82c.
Rises to Falls
In the last three months the number of rises outnumbered falls 32:22 or 1.5:1.


No surprises to long term holders we been predicting this for some time, all underpined and de-risked by

Excellent Eagle Ford Acres

The most brilliant operators

Prudent managment

Strong Flows and Rapidly Improving Declines

Strong M & A activity

Decent Energy Prices

The key risks imo are oil prices and the US economy.

 

[condog]

On the charts it has a pretty clearly defined trading band imo. Looking like its at the top of its band. However the reserves upgrade may begin a new trend at a different level??

Also looking at this trend with two rigs and no full time frac crew, one has to wonder what the trend will be with 3 rigs and a full time frac crew in early 2011, "If oil prices remain strong?"

It turns out that period under the trading range was a red hot buying opportunity.

 

[Sean K]

From buy sell signal dot com

condog, do you have a link to that report. It would be good to see, thanks. kennas

 

[condog]

http://www.buysellsignals.net/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_227.pdf

Sorry .net

Hows ya hoarding tinned food going, i got some spam if you want it.

 

[Assasin]

condog, the chart you've used this morning is tapering, is that normal? Sorry if it's a silly question, still learning to get my head around all this.

 

[Sean K]

condog, the chart you've used this morning is tapering, is that normal? Sorry if it's a silly question, still learning to get my head around all this.

Charts will look different dependant on time frames, scales and if they're semi-log or not. The one condog posted would look much flatter on a semi-log.

 

[condog]

Assassin i wouldnt worry too much im not making any prediction whatsoever for traders, they need to make thier own judgments and live and die by thier own swords. A few cents here and there, and short timelines are not suited imo to this stock.

I place that as it supports our bullish outlook on a fundamental basis.

I personally think there are a lot better stocks out there to be trading with significantly more volatility within wider and more predictable bands.

Funny thing is though if you look back through this thread since about page 4 or 5 you will find a few of us have been bullish in the face of some criticism since 25c in January 2010. Nothings changed much. Its still below its target , its still relentlessly drilling and fraccing to add value, in most cases faster then purchasers are willing to accept the story.

Periods of consolidation and mild pullbacks will be a certainty, but "AS LONG AS OIL STAYS UP - WHICH IS RELIANT ON US ECONOMIC RECOVERY IMO" this things going to continue to have a sharp incline in price in my opinion.

You got two brokers with targets well above the current sp, and probably about to be revised upwards significantly. You got many many different ways to value this explored on this thread.

You got the reserves upgrade about to be issued.

Results coming for T3 and Kowalick soon, others drilling and others ready to be drilled. A forward drilling program with a world class operator.

7 touches on the top line of that band and 7 on the bottom or more, showing a pretty convincing trading band. The dip below was simply a result of increased selling on the back of a CR and SPP. Not too many reasons to be worried about any palteua imo, but DYOR.

 

[condog]

Some encouraging signs for the overall market after a pretty glum week that saw oil futures fall $5. They finished the week on a small, but important positive. No need for concerns these are still very very profitable prices imo.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks rose Friday as improving retail sales and consumer sentiment provided a welcome deviation from this week's disappointing data, but continued worries about the global economy kept the gains small.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 5 points to 10325, as investors adjusted their positions following a three-day drop that took the measure 3.5% lower and sent it into negative territory for the year. The slump came as weak economic data suggested the global economy was slowing and reignited fear of a double-dip recession.

Friday's data were a reprieve from the spate of discouraging data that had been released earlier in the week. Still, it wasn't all positive. The retail-sales gain was driven by cars and gas as demand fell in many other categories, indicating consumers are still reluctant to spend amid high unemployment and a bleak housing market. Meanwhile, a bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. business inventories came as sales fell, suggesting the growth in stockpiles was involuntary.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up 0.2% to 1086, but the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% to 2188.

Crude-oil futures edged up while gold futures fell.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100813-707888.html

 

[Slipperz]

Nice strong close to the week.

Very happy with progress.

Can't add much else other than I'm inclined to drop a market to limit order in for 200K on Monday and see what eventuates LOL

:bananasmi

 

[condog]

Is anyone using options to cover. If so who through and what prices are currently being quoted for Dec 2011

 

[Sean K]

Is anyone using options to cover.

Do you own anything but AUT?

You seem to be only posting in the one thread.

Surely you own more than one stock.

Sorry if I've missed anything other that TON and AAM posts.

Do you have a blog that covers all buys and sells or something?

Interested to see your performance over time.

 

[condog]

That question of mine should actually say has anyone bought put options to protect thier profits.

Kennas i dont like to divulge too much info in these forums. Lets just say im heavy in AUT and not much else at present. Sorry not interested in a blog.

Not much else happening of interest at present other then AUT, too much fear and no other companies worth putting my money in other then possible EKA or SEA. Thats not a reccomendation. I got one eye on TRF and ROL and IFE with Wilchery hill and Romang Island.

 

[Sean K]

Kennas i dont like to divulge too much info in these forums.

Yes, understand. Not too many people are willing to put everything out to dry. No need really. This cyber world is a difficult thing to navigate..

 

[condog]

Oil Breaks 50- and 200-Day Moving Average in the Same Day
13th August 2010 http://seekingalpha.com/article/220435-oil-breaks-50-and-200-day-moving-average-in-the-same-day


First it was the Nasdaq on Wednesday, and now Thursday it was oil's turn to break below its 50 and 200 day moving averages on the same day. Since 1990, this is the 20th time oil has broken below both moving averages on the same day, so occurrences have been more frequent than with the Nasdaq.

Looking ahead at oil's performance following these occurrences, however, shows that as was the case with the Nasdaq, a break of both moving averages isn't the signal of impending doom that some technicians suggest it is. In the nineteen prior periods, oil has averaged a gain of 1.36% over the next week and a decline of 0.25% over the next month. Over each time frame, the commodity has seen gains 58% of the time.

 

[estseon]

Excerpts from Bloomberg report on Friday (13 Aug)

"“We were getting a little inflated, and now we’re oversold,” said James Cordier, portfolio manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida. “The speculators will lick their wounds over the weekend, and next week we’re going to get a dollar or two back.”

Oil supplies were 8.1 percent above the five-year average last week, according to the Energy Department.

Oil rigs operating in the U.S. jumped the most in nine months this week, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc. Rigs exploring for and producing oil climbed by 25 to 636, the highest level since January 1991."

I'm not sure that there is a lot of logic in that market. Bloomberg has previously mentioned hedge fund buying (and selling) of oil futures.

1. Last week's balance of supply and demand (how many rigs and production installations were previously shut down for maintenance?) doesn't really seem a logical basis for extrapolating future supply/demand

2 I find the comparison with January 1991 somewhat unconvincing. Supply is not determined by number of rigs. If only our wells could produce at the rate of the now capped BP well in the GoM.

3. China, India and the far east used substantially less oil in those days anyway and, apart from dismissing somewhere around one half of the planet's human population from consideration, the actual population and usage of oil have both increased dramatically.

Rubbish stats and rubbish analysis.

Whilst the barrow boys retain control of the market, we can expect volatility. The fact of the matter is that oil and gas well production declines as the oil and gas are extracted.

Renewed demand will obviously result in upward pressure on oil and gas prices but what few appear to be focussed on is the need to bring on stream new sources of supply just to counter the natural production declines. Some of this decline will be countered by "new science", the type of advanced engineering that Hilcorp are applying to our wells that TCEI couldn't crack. But, I would guess, not all and the oil rice crunch had the effect of reducing capital budgets for at least a year.

For this reason, I wouldn't care to base anything other than very short-term strategy on the charts. The traders are in command and the chart predictions will be self-fulfilling - instead of being an analysis tool they will be the script. Taking an 18 month view (currently the period covered by the AUT drilling proposals and the new infrastructure construction), the oil & gas price will harden. Could be wrong and often am but that's my non-expert analysis. I don't get paid $multi-millions for doing it either (I'm not suggesting anybody on thsi board is - just referring to the 'experts' providing us with an insight into their breakfast thoughts.)

 

[condog]

The open looks to be stacking up nicely for a new high. One tree shaker for each side but the buys look genuine to 1.12 and the sells up from 1.06

Indicative open 1.10

My guess is if the upgrades coming this morning they tend to be about 9.45

Esteon im not sure what you can see from your side of the world, but it looks like a strong day in store for AUT. Our market futures are down overall 50 points, so where looking good against the tide.

 

[condog]

announcment out,


Luna spudded on 7th August currently at 5780 ft

Surely its not coming this morning or it would have been first cab of the rank imo. Look for later in the day or tommorrow.