AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[condog]

Sam 76 - i reject that notion, some of the anlysis on here is the best on the entire forum, its just the random jibba jabba and negative garbage being proported as fact thats degenrative to this theread. Till the thread got hijacked a few weeks ago it was one of the best threads on this forum.


Nun thanks for all those links but i just looked through all of them and ther are only two actual pieces of analysis, both with extremly simplistic trendlines that are in my opinion arguably incorrectly placed and that you infact even appologised for the simplistic nature of.. Why because of the number of touches and the lack of recent touches, hence arguably incorrectly placed. Number of touches is a key indicator with trendlines, and imo two touches in 7 months with no touches in 3 months, due to specific fundamental changes to the stock is an incorrectly placed trendline.

Agent interesting that from seeking Alpha which was one of the sites you used to prolifically quote till just recently and they say the following today, and its from arguably the worlds leading authority on oil forcasts.

Why We'll See $300 Oil by 2020 - July 30th

and at least $150 oil by 2015

For decades, the theory of peak oil—or the idea that the world either has or will soon exhaust its ability to produce more oil—was derided as a doomsday scenario too unbelievable to ever come to pass. But $147 oil and one commodity crash later, and suddenly peak oil doesn't sound so strange after all.
In fact, mounting scientific evidence suggests that peak oil will not only be a reality, but may soon be upon us, says Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co.

With over 50 years' experience in the oil industry, Maxwell is a renowned expert in the energy markets; Institutional Investor has ranked him as the market's No. 1 oil analyst nine different years.

.....but it wouldn't surprise me if the financial side of the oil business began to tighten in 2012 anyway, in anticipation of what could be seen in 2013 and 2014.
......

Particularly, we could begin to have interest in the companies with very large reserves or smaller capitalizations, where you're buying a lot of barrels per hundred dollars of market capitalization.




Article continues at:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2176...00-oil-by-2020

Imagine the economics of these wells on that basis. OMG???

 

[nunthewiser]

A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up. Report them - bots are the evil enemy.

Sam 76 - i reject that notion, some of the anlysis on here is the best on the entire forum, its just the random jibba jabba and negative garbage being proported as fact thats degenrative to this theread.


Nun thanks for all those links ???

Totally agree condog . about time we agreed on something ....... no room for "negative garbage being proported as fact" at all on here.



Hey no worries , its great to have all sorts of varying opinions here bud.

 

[Slipperz]

JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered by 5.5 percent its forecast for New York oil prices this year on speculation a slowdown in global economies will limit crude’s potential to rise.

The bank cut to $77.25 a barrel its estimate for the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the rest of 2010, from a forecast of $81.75 a barrel made last month, according to a monthly report e-mailed today. It lowered its forecast for 2011’s average price to $79.25 a barrel from $90.

“We see both lower prices and a tighter range ahead -- but with increased risks,” Lawrence Eagles, an analyst for the U.S. bank, wrote in the report. “Weaker economic growth, energy efficiency and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries intransigence provide downside risks.”

Crude may fall next week amid increases in U.S. supplies and OPEC production, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude oil has declined by 0.5 percent this year to $78.95 a barrel in New York, after rising 78 percent last year.

“There’s an increased drive towards energy efficiency and renewable energy in China,” said Henry Wang, managing director, of Beijing-based energy consultant Gate International Ltd. “This could create downward pressure on oil demand.”

Pressure on China’s oil demand, the world’s biggest energy user, affects global consumption, which may impact prices, Wang, who formerly worked for Royal Dutch Shell Plc. in China, said by phone from Beijing today.

Production Cuts

Oil prices may fall more than expected on lower demand and a risk OPEC member nations won’t adhere to production cuts, the bank said.

“If demand drops, the Gulf Trio, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are likely to demand cuts from ‘leaky’ members to rebalance the market, but any delay in response risks a fall in prices as low as $50 a barrel,” Eagles said.

The demand outlook in the projection has been moderated in recent months because of shifts in the bank’s economic forecasts, according to the report.

“This month sees further changes, which take down 2010 demand growth to 1.8 million barrels a day and 2011 to a ‘trend’ 1.5 million barrels a day,” Eagles said. “The net sum of our supply and demand changes reduces the call on OPEC by 1.2 million barrels a day at the end of 2011.”

now where did i see this before?? oh,, now i remember, those groundhog days..

i dont really see anywhere where the consensus on oil @ $90, but your entitled to think it but can you explain what the basis is for the estimate slipperz

its important to back up how you think oil is going to reach $90. the very mild downgrading of oil with a very stark warning of what may happen if the usual suspects dont conform.. ie $50 oil... its pretty easy to get there.. and hedge funds thrive on these type of conditions..

imho the trend is down... thats one thing i keep a close watch on..

as for the s&p 500 miracle 10% run on vapour, and with equity funds withdrawing week in week out, 11.5 billion in july alone, i am sure this bizzare us market will sort it self out.. and keep an eye on the ecri..

imho the discussion of the downside, which will send the smallcaps to cash value in a heartbeat is something anyone risking an entry needs to consider..

we have seen how little unity there was a few years back when it hit the fan and oil went to $30.. be cautious on the oil prices and imho try and back up claims of $90 oil with at least some evidence..

My bad Agentm I meant to say 80 dollars a barrel.

Oil price is still looking pretty bullish though.

 

[condog]

Originally Posted by Agent

.............. oil at $30

This is crazy wild speculation

Wow how things change.

Firstly cant find a realistic source that says thats gunna happen and as in the very credibile article posted here from Seeking alpha from the worlds leading expert on oil prices, its more likely to go significantly higher, due to money supply issues and impending long term demand / supply capacity issues, known as peak oil.

Secondly , when you got caugght long in ADI during GFC, this was a significnatly different company. Virtually no flows, no propper drilling and fraccing program, and certainly absolutely no resemblance to the continual value being added right now via the current drilling program.

Sure if oil goes to $30 and stays there well economics become a huge issue. But where on earth are you getting credible news saying thats likely. Please post links, because this is just not the consensus forcasts im reading.

Without a doubt right now everything i read says we have very temporary strong inventories, which would usually correspond with drops in oil price.

However theres three never before seen forces keeping oil high and likely to in the medium to long term drive it higher.
1. The incredible money supply driven by stimulus packages world wide, the money has to be poarked somewhere and with equity markets and banks presenting unforseen risks , commodities are the prefferred option, in Gold first, oil second.
2. Un seen imminent global demand upon a US recovery when combined with the new demands from China and India
3. Peak oil concerns becoming a likely reality in the psychie of futures traders from 2012 onwards.

In fact, mounting scientific evidence suggests that peak oil will not only be a reality, but may soon be upon us, says Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co.

With over 50 years' experience in the oil industry, Maxwell is a renowned expert in the energy markets; Institutional Investor has ranked him as the market's No. 1 oil analyst nine different years.

You should recognise this name AGent
You definitely know this site http://seekingalpha.com/article/2176...00-oil-by-2020 as prior to selling ADI you used to quote it regularly in the ADI thread.
And whilst even im not bullish anywhere near Maxwell is, he has some extremely valid points and an incredible following for good reason. He knows the game better then most ever will.

 

[condog]

perhaps read this from murphy they talk about their gaszone well in mcmullen, and then how they view the karnes county oil zone and their new well and also the play itself

many questions on the eagleford in the Q&A section

http://seekingalpha.com/article/185259-murphy-oil-corp-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript

no one thinks this play is valid i know with the jvp, but imho its a seriously wrong view..

Awesome find agent this one is and was. Well worth a read for all. Yep and your comments ring totally true.

Only difference is back when you where saying this , brilliant oil flows for ADI and AUT where a hope or dream, now they are an absolute reality. The best reported to date in the entire Eagle Ford Shale.

 

[Slipperz]

Sheesh condog you are relentless

BTW the hayne train just got derailed by the roosters
:

My theme song for AUT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxvpctgU_s8&a=GxdCwVVULXfmMn68Q8aPLPb8T-QWworr

 

[condog]

Sheesh condog you are relentless

BTW the hayne train just got derailed by the roosters
:

My theme song for AUT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxvpctgU_s8&a=GxdCwVVULXfmMn68Q8aPLPb8T-QWworr

yep looks like the eels will have to be happy with one premiership in the last two years.:

nice extract from chinese fn

Whether Beijing's formula of mixed capitalism and state control of key enterprises will prove to be durable over the long run has yet to be seen. What we do know, however, is that a few more years of surging energy consumption will soon be playing havoc with energy prices around the world. Even with GDP growth down to 8 or 10 percent each year, China seems to be on course to import at least an additional 500,000 barrels a day (b/d) on top of the 5.4 million b/d imported in June. Beijing's oil imports have doubled in the last five years. Given that other Asian states are increasing imports and the Gulf oil exporters are consuming increasing amounts of oil, something has got to give. That of course will be prices.

 

[condog]

U.S. military warns of oil production shortage by 2015

The U.S. military thinks we're one step closer to peak oil, the point at which oil demand will forever outstrip oil supply, and therefore we're one step closer to fighting over the last rusting cans of gasoline like so many scraps of meat. On the plus side, we're also one step closer to finally equipping our cars with superchargers and massive gas tanks rigged with explosives a la Mad Max and his archetypal peak-oil sled, "the last of the V-8 Interceptors."

The U.S. Joint Forces command has issued a Joint Operating Environment report that states that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and that there could be serious shortages by 2015. From the report:
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day, While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.

from:
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/04/15/u-s-military-warns-of-oil-production-shortage-by-2015/

2/01/2008 11:17 AM Peak Oil - 2015

Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, has predicted the peak oil crises will hit in 2015, when global demand outstrips supply and cheap, easily accessible oil runs out.
http://www.shortnews.com/start.cfm?id=68151

Richard Branson Predicts Peak Oil In 2015
Posted by majestic on February 15, 2010

As the owner of a major airline, Virgin’s Richard Branson must think about the prospect of peak oil more than most of us. Apparently he’s a believer, as reported in the Christian Science Monitor:
http://www.disinfo.com/2010/02/richard-branson-predicts-peak-oil-in-2015/

Oil crunch by 2012, say military experts April 16 2010
http://www.news.com.au/business/oil-crunch-by-2012-say-military-experts/story-e6frfm1i-1225854353413

US military predicts "energy crunch"
Shortage of refining capacity, engineers
Demand could outstrip supply by 2012

RISING oil prices pose a grave threat to global economic recovery, according to some economists.
Thus it was sobering this week to read that the US military has warned the world faces a "severe energy crunch" and looming oil shortages.
According to a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, "a severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity".
The report says the central problem for the coming decade "will not be a lack of petroleum reserves, but rather a shortage of drilling platforms, engineers and refining capacity".
And it warns: "Even were a concerted effort begun today to repair that shortage, it would be 10 years before production could catch up with expected demand."

More ominously, the military predicts a "Peak Oil" scenario - where demand outstrips the world's supply capacity - as soon as 2012.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels a day.

Plenty of guys out there with a lot more info and high paid analysts painting a very similar picture.

In my humble opinion its a simple problem, the GFC fixed the demand side of the equation and did absolutely nothing to help the supply side, with trained people, equipment, investment, infrastructure etc. So as soon as growth recovers to pre-GFC levels we are in for price jolts unseen imo.

Which country will be first to say we cant afford oil any more. Cant see us or the US, or China or India accepting that, so what choice will we have but to pay rediculously higher oil prices.

There will be only one winner if this occurs. Oil companies. Worth taking a hedge against imo. And i cant find any better then WPL as a large cap and AUT as a small cap.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

yep looks like the eels will have to be happy with one premiership in the last two years.:

Pretty sure they don't have the rings or the trophy to support them winning..... lol Hmm I've been waiting to get in WPL as well. Do you hold them Condog?

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

Here's their quarterly summary. Dunno if you guys posted it before... What do you make of it condog?

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100730/pdf/31rmkd0nr2mljx.pdf

 

[condog]

Here's their quarterly summary. Dunno if you guys posted it before... What do you make of it condog?

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100730/pdf/31rmkd0nr2mljx.pdf

Well as a bro, cant remember if it was esteon or mir or nokia posted elsewhere, the very comforting thing was there where no surprises at all. We knew everything in it. Well flow dat consitent with what had been announced, reserve upgrade comments consistent with what i had said here and cash flow statements in line with previous asx announcements.

All good imo.

 

[BrightGreenGlow]

It had a market sensitive mark on it. While it was released Friday. What can we expect on Monday? No breakout? Still flat?

 

[Slipperz]

Here's their quarterly summary. Dunno if you guys posted it before... What do you make of it condog?

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100730/pdf/31rmkd0nr2mljx.pdf

Nothing really new in there although I was hoping for the reserves report.

Just a reiteration of the fact AUT has prime acreages is cashed up and is going to drill like all get out with a superb operator (Hillcorp) to extract oil revenue from the eagleford.

All good IMHO.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

I always find it interesting that AUT makes such a big play in its exploration reports about the heavy hitters in the oil and gas industry with acreages abutting AUT's acreage. I can't help but wonder whether it serves a two-fold purpose; first, to reassure current investors that AUT is mixing it with the big boys in the right part of the world; secondly, to attract the interest of one of the big boys to buy AUT lock, stock and barrel.

 

[nioka]

I always find it interesting that AUT makes such a big play in its exploration reports about the heavy hitters in the oil and gas industry with acreages abutting AUT's acreage. I can't help but wonder whether it serves a two-fold purpose; first, to reassure current investors that AUT is mixing it with the big boys in the right part of the world; secondly, to attract the interest of one of the big boys to buy AUT lock, stock and barrel.

I'd like to think that they want the true value of AUT to be reflected in the SP so that they are not a cheap takeover target as was ADI.

 

[Slipperz]

Here's an intriging little article on the power plays in the middle east.

Reads more like a spy novel than real life though!



A Coup in Saudi Avoided or Iranian Disinformation?

Did King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia narrowly avoid being overthrown by a close member of his own royal family? That seems to be a rumor circulating around some political and intelligence circles in Washington as well as in the Middle East. A Saudi official however denied the allegations saying it was most likely Iranian disinformation.

Indeed, there have been reports ¬- all unconfirmed - ¬ that Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdel Aziz, a nephew of the king and former Saudi ambassador to Washington had attempted a coup and has since been under house arrest. Other sources said Bandar was detained in a Saudi prison. A Saudi official however told this reporter that the whole story was part of an Iranian disinformation campaign.

"Utter nonsense" was how the official described the whole affair, adding that this was an ongoing struggle by Iran to discredit the Saudis and perturb efforts to reconcile Saudi Arabia and Syria, a move that would undoubtedly be to the detriment of the Iranian-Syrian love affair.

Of course no one will go on the record to confirm or deny any of the allegations brought forward in this new Middle East muddle. Yet a number of tidbits are beginning to emerge allowing one to piece together a large jigsaw puzzle with many pieces still missing.

One of the main components is the whereabouts of Prince Bandar. The former ambassador and head of the Saudi National Security Council has not been seen in public for many months. According to a Saudi official, however, Bandar is spending time on his ranch in Colorado.

Yet what makes this story interesting are a number of strangely timed coincidences. In the dark world of espionage and intelligence gathering there is no such thing as a coincidence. Things usually happen for a good reason.

The first item that deserves special attention is the sudden rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Syria. Why is that unusual? Because the two countries are as far apart as one can possibly imagine from every aspect of the political and social-economic field; and not too long ago it looked as though they were about to come to blows.

This past week King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia made an official visit to Lebanon. This could have never happened had there not been a thawing between Syria and Saudi. Prior to his visit to Beirut the Saudi king was in Morocco where he conferred with the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

Last year the mood changed between Damascus and Riyadh quite suddenly. The
Lebanese press dubbed this change in Syrian-Saudi relations as the "Seen-Seen" agreement for the way the letter "S" is pronounced in Arabic.

What followed was a summit meeting between King Abdullah and President Bashar Assad of Syria. Sources in Beirut say the move came at the initiative of the Saudis who wanted better relations with the Syrians and wanted to defuse some of the tension that persisted in the region.

The Syrian and the Lebanese press were filled with reports of all the positive steps the two Arab leaders had agreed to take but neither the Syrian nor the Saudi press alluded to the real deal that was reached by the two leaders at this meeting, according to reliable sources in Lebanon. In essence that was Syria's "soft return to Lebanon" as one Lebanese official put it. A direct outcome of the Syrian-Saudi deal was the visit to Damascus by Saad Hariri, Lebanon's prime minister and son of the assassinated leader.

Acting in the spirit of this rapprochement Syria passed on to Saudi Arabia information that a member of the royal family was planning a coup d'état. The intelligence, it seems according to Middle East intelligence sources, came from Russian intelligence. And now, as they say, the plot thickens.

In his new role as head of the National Security Council Prince Bandar had made a number of visits to Moscow to negotiate arms deals for Riyadh. Is that the Russian connection, if there is indeed one?

Furthermore, as a sign of goodwill Syria told the Saudis that they would intervene in Yemen with the Houthi rebels fighting along the Saudi border. In return Syria asked the Saudis who have great influence with Hariri to use this influence to convince the Lebanese prime minister that it was in his interest to recognize the importance of Damascus. In return Syria needed to distance itself from accusations that it was responsible for the killing of Rafik Hariri.

Before that could happen, another suspect had to be found: Enter Israel onto the scene.

As was reported July 26, some 70 people in Lebanon were arrested for spying for Israel in recent months, including three officials of Alpha, a state-owned cellular phone company. Cellular communications transmitted through Alpha played a vital role in the investigation of Hariri's murder. The three men admitted to have spied for Israel.

In short, Saudi-Syrian relations are amended; Beirut is made to understand that there can be no circumventing Damascus; Syria is absolved of any implications in the killing of the former Lebanese prime minster with the blame now resting on the traditional enemy, Israel.

Very convenient, but is that the truth? We may never know.

Yet in this great muddle of spies, lies and broken alliances there may be a glitter of hope if the Seen-Seen deal (the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement) gives way to distancing Tehran from Damascus and lays the groundwork to allow Syria to move closer to the West.

Could this be the reason why Iran might be trying to discredit the Saudis? This is one more unanswered question in the parallel war of disinformation.

By. Claude Salhani

Claude Salhani is a political analyst specializing in the Middle East and terrorism.

 

[condog]

Good by all leaving asf for the other forum for good, sick to death of nuns rubbish and mods taking his side

 

[noie]

I am always in favor of people stating their opinions (here is one of mine)
what people do with it is up to them.
If they state a fact, only a fool will take it as one, unless the person is family then you definitely check it

Pro and Con, is needed in every decision,
i like it , i don't like it, is also nice, when dealing with binary choices.

The benefit and value of this forum to me is all your collective differences, and they ability for me to treat your opinions like stocks themselves and go back in time and see how you have performed.

i hope with time i can add my own value.

 

[nunthewiser]

Good by all leaving asf for the other forum for good, sick to death of nuns rubbish and mods taking his side

cya.

Rubbish = alternative viewpoint?

shame you feel that way, it has been good having two sides to the story in this thread and has led to some intresting discussion at times.

I previously today asked for a post to be removed as i had made a mistake which could have led to ppl having a negative viewpoint on this stock and would have led to a slanging match. The MODS removed the posts for the overall good of the thread ..NOT because you were attacking me personally..but for the quality of the thread and the rules by which we must abide here.

The mods here are fair and believe you me i have copped my fair share of infractions from this thread also .


anyhoo toodlepip and good luck with whatever you end up doing

or you could always just discuss analysis instead of getting so personal in these matters.

 

[estseon]

McCoy

"I always find it interesting that AUT makes such a big play in its exploration reports about the heavy hitters in the oil and gas industry with acreages abutting AUT's acreage."

Another possibility is that AUT is pointing out that the trend is being proven all around its acreage. The chances of a duster must be minimal. That is: exploration risk is near zero despite the inclusion of potential non-productive wells in the ADI Target Statement valuation report. This also suggests that NPV discount rates inflated to accommodate risk may be reduced in future reserves appraisals. That was suggested in one of the previous broker reports - can't remember whether it was ADI or AUT but think it was AUT around March time.

This, of course, is speculation.

However, the level of investment and successful drilling in the surrounding acreage must provide some comfort and will justify significant investment in infrastructure by the pipeline companies.

There is a further point:

Before Hilcorp, I just couldn't believe Petrohawk's claim to be able to drill a well for c$5.5m in less than a month....The JVPs made repeated reference to Petrohawk figures encouraging shareholders to use them as some form of benchmark. It would seem that they were justified in so doing.

The Board cannot speculate on what it will be able to do on the AUT acreage. It can point to what is being done all around, and what has been achieved, and it can infer that we can look at what is being done by other operators in neighbouring acreage as a guide to what may be achieved on our acreage.

There's absolutely no reason for them to tout for buyers over the next 12-18 months, IMO. They are cashed up for the drilling and the infill acquisitions.