AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[Sdajii]

In frustration that investors dont see the whole picture, value oil higher and realise that peak oil is here or if not here then very close. The dearer it is then the longer it lasts and the faster the alternatives, including gas, will be developed.

Oh, I see. From an investment point of view it seems like a good thing to me (more time to stock up while it's undervalued - perhaps I am just patient), but I see your point about low prices resulting in hideous overconsumption. Every day I see a world filled with the insanity and it really bothers me. When oil runs out (well, probably a bit before then) most of us will die. Wasting the resource which is keeping us alive is madness, literal suicide, and I feel like banging my head too. I suppose I just wasn't keeping an eye open for that sort of train of thought in an investment thread.

 

[estseon]

"...but I see your point about low prices resulting in hideous overconsumption..."

I'm not so sure about that. The developing nations such as India and China have a lot of catching up to do and all of that catching up has energy demand implications.

Demand in the 'west', that is, the developed nations, might even reduce through greater efficiencies, alternate sources and the transfer of manufacturing to the developing nations.

The oil futures market seems to be watching the US economy (according to what Bloomberg has been saying) - at the moment.

My view is that the longer term trend towards excess of demand over supply cannot be disturbed by the current uncertainty and turbulence. But that does not mean that there are not dangers out there for investors in the meantime. Whenever you see reference to hedge fund buying in a delicate market such as we seem to have at the moment, don your flak jackets.

And watch out for this kind of thing:

"Nexus Energy Ltd. rose the most since October 2008 in Sydney after the Australian newspaper said some shareholders were approached about a possible takeover bid. The company said it isn’t in talks and hasn’t received any offers"

There has been a certain amount of speculation in the London market also and some opportunist bids in various sectors.

AUT has issued a substantial number of new shares and so far there is no evidence of dumping to take a quick 10%. Let's hope that the Board has placed the shares with strong investors. AWE demonstrated how easy it is to gain control from a 34% launchpad. So, hang on to your shares and keep the prowlers at bay.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Anyone received their cheques yet?

I'd like to apply the funds to other investments ASAP. Bit frustrating that I haven't received my cheque for the unused portion of my SPP application yet.

 

[nioka]

Reproduced from another forum. With permission.

"Investing is all about risk versus reward. The greater the risk usually the greater the reward. I believe that AUT breaks all the old rules. Lets look at the risks.

1. Are they still wildcat prospecting.
2. Do they have to fund further drilling.
3. Do they have to find a credible operator.
4. Are they operating in a hostile unstable country
5. Is the management inexperienced.
6. Do the directors just raise cash to fund an extravant lifestyle.

I have asked these questions regarding another stock featured on XX and the answers were YES to all questions and the stock still has followers, remarkable isnt it. Yet here with AUT all the answers are no. Ask questions for AUT like;
1. Are they producers.... Yes
2. Have they sufficient funds for further development...Yes
3. Do they have a credible operator.... Yes
4. Are they operating in a safe stable country.... Yes.
5. Is the managemant experienced.... Yes
6. Are the directors using your money wisely... Yes

So whats the problem. I dont have a problem having my money in their hands."

Seems to me the rewards could be great and the riskiness was in the past

 

[cmxd]

Anyone received their cheques yet?

Hi McCoy,

Please check, I have received cheque.

Thanks,

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Got my refund cheque today, so that'll go straight into the bank tomorrow.

Looking forward to seeing the report on reserves which should be due soon.

 

[justiceotp]

OK this things off and running a bit this morning and we have no Condog to keep everyone informed of this mornings release and to enjoy what he has said would happen. They have said in the release the reserves would be announced mid August.

 

[AngusSmart]

OK this things off and running a bit this morning and we have no Condog to keep everyone informed of this mornings release and to enjoy what he has said would happen. They have said in the release the reserves would be announced mid August.

Perfect, just enough time for me to get my top up in..

wishing i could have done it earlier this week @ around .81 tho


Come back CONDOG!!!

 

[jancha]

OK this things off and running a bit this morning and we have no Condog to keep everyone informed of this mornings release and to enjoy what he has said would happen. They have said in the release the reserves would be announced mid August.

Yes i tend to agree.
Seems like Nuns lost interest also since Condog exited which makes you wonder if in fact it was more about stirring the pot. lol

 

[nioka]

News releases are available from the ASX website. Todays news shows good results, 57,000 BOC ion 60 days from Rancho Grande. Plus gas. The well is paying its way now. Kowlick making good progress and remember it was the one that initially gave the sound of elephants. It could be a big one. Then there are the latest drilling results for Turnbull still to come. Plenty to watch for here. The SP today reflects the news.

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes i tend to agree.
Seems like Nuns lost interest also since Condog exited which makes you wonder if in fact it was more about stirring the pot. lol

Nope.

My input into this thread has been to keep an even balance. I presented analysis on the flip side of the " sure Thing" rantings that were happening here on an hourly basis.

I couldnt care less about condog.

watching AUT like a hawk at present will post further analysis IF this channel is broken and a clear continuation of long term uptrend stays intact.

 

[professor_frink]

Nope.

My input into this thread has been to keep an even balance. I presented analysis on the flip side of the " sure Thing" rantings that were happening here on an hourly basis.

I couldnt care less about condog.

watching AUT like a hawk at present will post further analysis IF this channel is broken

Nun, are you referring to the channel on the chart I've attached below? Just trying to get an idea of what you are looking at

Considering the time it's taken in the highlighted range, and without knowing too much about the company, a close on today's highs that's also above the recent resistance could be a half decent entry for a short term trade

 

[nunthewiser]

Nun, are you referring to the channel on the chart I've attached below? Just trying to get an idea of what you are looking at

Considering the time it's taken in the highlighted range, and without knowing too much about the company, a close on today's highs that's also above the recent resistance could be a half decent entry for a short term trade

Yep . a clear bust out north of that channel would see me take an entry . NOT on todays action as yet tho... big chance of it returning to base of channel on todays action so far ... watching like a hawk .....

scroll back a bit mate i have posted chart and MY unique form of analysis on the thoughts on this current channel

 

[professor_frink]

ok sweet as nun thanks for clearing that up. Good luck to the rest of the holders, looks like it's been a decent day for you all so far

 

[AngusSmart]

Finished half a cent from the high, and didnt go below opening..

good day for AUT.

What are others predictions for reserves upgrades where will the share price be heading once this is announced.

very happy to be holding at the moment!

 

[nulla nulla]

Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and volumes are nothing to get excited about. For the time being my money is staying in my wallet.

 

[Huitzii]

IMO today sent a message out to those waiting for a low entry.
The trend has now changed into a northerly direction, tomorrow is another day and could see some consolidation but it could also just as easily continue its current trendline (bright green)
If AUT sees some good volume tomorrow it has great potential ,soaring to new highs.
just wait and see I suppose.
This chart and trendlines are only my opinion and you may see it totally different so please don't treat this as a buy signal as it is my thoughts only.
DYOR

 

[condog]

Nice to be missed by those who count. Got several emails, the posts and plenty of PM's which somewhat tempered my frustration and anger.

Ive added to my ignore list in the hope of being able to have an intelectual discussion.

And lovely to see above a chart that imo reflects reality.

MACD's have crossed, buy sell imbalance has partially returned to pre consolidation levels. If we get a nice night on the DJIA and strong oil support we hopefully will see the true breakout occur tommorow. Thats just opinion not factual.

Pretty obvious in my opinion by now those 40c bounces and 72c support levels are out of the equation barring a catastrophe. As shown above theres a strong resistance/ support level been established around 82c.

Mid August for the reserves upgrade is 10 days away which is lovely timing, as all the traders that jumped in today, and possibly tommorow will surely be providing a little exit pressure in a week to 2 weeks time when Kowalick, T3 the reserves upgrade and possibly a new spud or two have or are bing announced.

Those flows today for Rancho are simply staggering. To see so little decline and have two wells producing +or- 1000boepd is simply awesome from a well economics point of view. Rancho has provided $5M in revenue already as would have Morgan. Both should be completely paid off and massively contributing toward hilcorp repayment of other wells by the time we have our 90 day flows.

The other beautiful thing for those that follow the story closely enough is , it appears the reserve upgrade will be classsified 2P or 3P rather then the current 2C imo. That being the case we have bought in at a substantial discount to what 2P reserves would be priced at. With 9 from 9, it would appear that its possible we may end up eventually, perhaps next July or August with a pretty substantial 1P or 2P number. Again speculation and opinion.

Kowalick going to 6500 ft will likely imo produce some great results. From memory it was extremely liquid rich with 900+boe the first time round on a much much shorter lateral. So im speculating / guessing we might see IP's int he order of 1500+, but depends if they go the highly restricted choke option again. In which case the trade off will be lower IP's and better declines.

Theres also new well application been lodged since we spoke last called Luna and an alteration to the Kowalick well, im guessing for the lenght modification.

Cheers to all, see how it goes.

 

[condog]

From PEtrohawk

"
However, I will point out that we now have four wells with over 360 days of production, 13 wells with over 180 days of production and 22 wells with over 120 days of production. Based on the extent of this database, we now believe that restricted rate practices support a change in the average first year decline from approximately 80% to 85% to a first year decline approximating 45% to 55%, with some wells displaying declines that could be as low as 25% and 30%. "

Perhaps our restricted rate flows on Turnbull where done with this information at hand. Will be very nice if we can get declines as low as 25-55%

 

[Huitzii]

Welcome back Condog I've missed your informative posts, and regular updates on all the fundamentals of this stock.