SDL - Sundance Resources

[jonojpsg]

Hang on a sec lioness, the article you posted a link to below gave a pretty good sequence of events from when SDL first bought in 4 years ago, through the initial resource drilling (07/08), then the GFC which threw a massive spanner in the works, and then the revised way forward which had to include more drilling to get the 350Mt high grade in order to get a partner on board.

IMO they are running extremely well to plan given events over the past two years - as I've estimated, the JORC inferred for Nabeba should be out within the next 2-4 weeks, then a partner locked in shortly after.

I don't think there is any need to whinge about a drifting SP when it is such a news-driven situation - with the news that we WILL get in the next two months, the SP WILL improve - IMO significantly.

Of course, in two months time feel free to throw eggs if nothing happens

Got my first estimate right, now let's hope that the second comes through as well - I'm jumping in starting now and putting everything I can on it over the next 2-3 weeks as when the announcement comes this will run AT LEAST 100% very quickly IMO and then add another 100% within months after that.

I mean really, valuing SDL at 22c per tonne of resource will be viewed as ridiculous IF they sign up a partner(s) and finance, as they will be making a clear $30-40/tonne even at rock bottom IO prices! I would say a valuation of $1-2 per tonne is realistic once they sign a partner and finance. This would give them a $4-5bn EV or $1.5 a share. That may be a bit optimistic but a measure of how undervalued they are atm.

 

[bleach8]

Got my first estimate right, now let's hope that the second comes through as well - I'm jumping in starting now and putting everything I can on it over the next 2-3 weeks as when the announcement comes this will run AT LEAST 100% very quickly IMO and then add another 100% within months after that.

I mean really, valuing SDL at 22c per tonne of resource will be viewed as ridiculous IF they sign up a partner(s) and finance, as they will be making a clear $30-40/tonne even at rock bottom IO prices! I would say a valuation of $1-2 per tonne is realistic once they sign a partner and finance. This would give them a $4-5bn EV or $1.5 a share. That may be a bit optimistic but a measure of how undervalued they are atm.

dont know why so many people decided to sell at 13.5 (high volumes) today....i didnt expect that it would go up to 20c after today's new...but at least i would love to see the sp go to 15c with the news today

 

[5haretrader]

Bleach, on the HC forum, someone was following closely and commented that many of the shares bought at 13.5 were put into 14cents straight away. Even on good news our algo trading friends wouldn't let us have a run of it. Ah well, bigger and better things to come in the not too distant future one hopes

 

[LRG]

dropped a full cent today 37 million traded down from 13 to 12 cents.

are people getting tired of the wait you think?

bottom draw stuff now maybe for a little while hey?

 

[jonojpsg]

dropped a full cent today 37 million traded down from 13 to 12 cents.

are people getting tired of the wait you think?

bottom draw stuff now maybe for a little while hey?

Yeah, I saw the big volume and wondered...usually most of the big volume days see the price go up? Seems like an opportune time to buy right now rather than bottom drawer, an announcement re partners/finance would have to be on the cards for the next month or so given that they now have more than enough DSO to cover the payback period++

I'm thinking I will be shifting my funds to pick some more up at this price

 

[lioness]

Looks like that big volume sell down was for the buyers to pick up cheapies.

BUT if it doesnt move up soon, it will probably break down and head to 8 cents as the basing pattern has been going on for 1 year now. I guess without news of a partner it is guaranteed to break down as many people are losing money now at 13 cents. So it won't hold up for long without moving up. People are sick of waiting but an announcement can change everything in a second. We need a partner update of some description to keep punters interested.

 

[Miner]

Looks like that big volume sell down was for the buyers to pick up cheapies.

BUT if it doesnt move up soon, it will probably break down and head to 8 cents as the basing pattern has been going on for 1 year now. I guess without news of a partner it is guaranteed to break down as many people are losing money now at 13 cents. So it won't hold up for long without moving up. People are sick of waiting but an announcement can change everything in a second. We need a partner update of some description to keep punters interested.

Interesting posting Lioness as always

How did you derive the 8 cents figure to be reached in 12 months.

I have noticed you have made interesting submissions on SDL in some of your previous postings .

I am just curious to know the theory behind it so that I can make a purchase order in 12 months time and start selling other stocks for SDL

 

[lioness]

Interesting posting Lioness as always

How did you derive the 8 cents figure to be reached in 12 months.

I have noticed you have made interesting submissions on SDL in some of your previous postings .

I am just curious to know the theory behind it so that I can make a purchase order in 12 months time and start selling other stocks for SDL

Miner,

I wouldn't buy SDL at 8 cents now after this following news as it shows no-one wants SDL. You are better off waiting for them to announce a deal and pay 50 cents. At least you have certainty then. Even BHP went next door and spent 3.5 billion in West Africa(Next door to SDL's project) and snubbed SDL. No-one wants them:

BHP pushes into Liberia

BHP Billiton Ltd has entered an investment deal, rumoured to be in the range of $3.5 billion, to develop iron ore prospects in Liberia, according to media reports.

The miner has reportedly signed a mineral development agreement with Liberia, setting out taxes, duties and other trade terms for the development of four iron ore deposits, The Australian newspaper said.

BHP's push into Liberia comes as debate around the federal government's proposed 40 per cent resources super profits tax (RSPT) continues to fuel uncertainty about its impact on local projects and investment activity .

African iron ore hub

BHP's chief executive of ferrous and coal, Marcus Randolph said that the combination of a push into Liberia with the nearby Nimba deposit in Guinea could form the basis for a strategic hub of iron ore development around integrated rail and port infrastructure.

He compared the set up to the way Australian iron ore operations began in the Pilbara.

Mr Randolph said that Liberia was receptive to developments.

"With the completion of our mineral development agreement, we intend to expedite development of these resources," Mr Randolph told The Age.

Last week, BHP Billiton's chairman Jac Nasser sent a letter to shareholders, updating them on the RSPT, in which he said that the tax should be substantively redesigned or otherwise abandoned.

He responded to reports that the government is considering changing some elements of the RSPT including the threshold at which the tax applies to bring it in line with the petroleum tax.

Mr Nasser stressed that applying the petroleum resource rent tax to minerals would not address the fundamental failings of the government's proposed resource super profits tax.

 

[5haretrader]

Well.....

So lioness why do you have the belief that if one company doesn't want us then we are doomed

BHP have probably done a feasibility report on many options in the African region and quite possible SDL was on their shortlist. Just because we didn't get through this time doesn't mean we never will. Keep the faith.

 

[lioness]

Well.....

So lioness why do you have the belief that if one company doesn't want us then we are doomed

BHP have probably done a feasibility report on many options in the African region and quite possible SDL was on their shortlist. Just because we didn't get through this time doesn't mean we never will. Keep the faith.

Just frustrated that it has taken so long to get going. I still have faith but only a little left now. They need to get going with this project as they have not even built the transport yet and that will take one year as well.

 

[LRG]

Hate to say it but I'm with lioness. SDL management have promised the world: gunna do this gunna do that by such and such a time - then that time passes by and nothing is mentioned of the promise. They just "spin" and say its happening in 2010 (previous it was april/may/june 2010).
when 21010 goes it will be 2nd qtr 2011?

The best analogy for SDL broken promises is our mate K Rudd. similar time line last 3 years promising this and that and delivering ZERO - causing unrest, uncertaintly and fear with believers.

PS i didn't vote labor - this is just an analogy for SDL.

This project is not going to get off the ground for a while yet if ever.

I am bottom drawing my SDL holdings - no longer going to average down my price by wasting money buying more and more. I have substantial SDL holdings - go t to start thinking it may not fly and look for other opportunites as free funds come available.

Hey, if SDL does one day get up it will be like winning the lotto for me (and probably lioness). But i am sick of the SDL spin. SDL is just a slim chance now in my mind.

There is no announcement to date - it may come tmw, next month, Dec 2010, july 2011, 2015??? who knows - only when/if it happens - I suspect the board really don't have any solid potentials.

any way SDL - bottom draw - not selling but have almost had enough of the spin and broken timelines.

 

[lioness]

Hate to say it but I'm with lioness. SDL management have promised the world: gunna do this gunna do that by such and such a time - then that time passes by and nothing is mentioned of the promise. They just "spin" and say its happening in 2010 (previous it was april/may/june 2010).
when 21010 goes it will be 2nd qtr 2011?

The best analogy for SDL broken promises is our mate K Rudd. similar time line last 3 years promising this and that and delivering ZERO - causing unrest, uncertaintly and fear with believers.

I am bottom drawing my SDL holdings - no longer going to average down my price by wasting money buying more and more. I have substantial SDL holdings - go t to start thinking it may not fly and look for other opportunites as free funds come available.

Hey, if SDL does one day get up it will be like winning the lotto for me (and probably lioness). But i am sick of the SDL spin. SDL is just a slim chance now in my mind.

There is no announcement to date - it may come tmw, next month, Dec 2010, july 2011, 2015??? who knows - only when/if it happens - I suspect the board really don't have any solid potentials.

any way SDL - bottom draw - not selling but have almost had enough of the spin and broken timelines.

Yes, looks like this is just a pipe dream now with not much chance of getting off the ground. Partners may happen with the next 2 years but otherwise, she will continue to base for a very long time. I suspect leaving money here will be the same in 2 years. Don Lewis CEO is a good salesman but no company maker, just a salesman with a good story to sell.

 

[5haretrader]

FMG sat in idle for 17 years. Those who persevere are those who are rewarded. Anything can change overnight. Think of it this way, things will move extremely quickly once there is a sniff of a partner deal. You could miss out on this by just a few weeks if you were to sell off through impatience.

 

[LRG]

thats right. as i said not going to sell off - just hold in the proverbial bottom draw. no way will i buy any more.

1 day maybe it will go but can't see it happening in the near future.

the only saving grace is i am crap at predicting the future when it comes to share trading, forex trading, futures trading, options etc - so don't listen to my gut feeling. best hing to do is the opposite of what i do and i gauranee you will make a fortune!!

 

[lioness]

FMG sat in idle for 17 years. Those who persevere are those who are rewarded. Anything can change overnight. Think of it this way, things will move extremely quickly once there is a sniff of a partner deal. You could miss out on this by just a few weeks if you were to sell off through impatience.

This is true as it as happened to me with a few other stocks that I sold out and then they went up 10 times on me. That has cost me millions literally, so I will wait for SDL patiently as I know it will make me millions in the next 1-2 years. I must learn more patience.

 

[R Soul]

The joys of trading specs.

Can anyone give me a link to where the BHP proposed Liberian tenamant is WRT SDL's patch of red rock?

Any infrastucture development in that area would increase SDL's prospects due to the 'gold-rush' effect from other miners.

Having said that, a prospective development partner would bring their own capital with them, so to speak. So the value of the rights to mine (basically SDL's prime asset) in this scenariao would be????

 

[LRG]

hello new member R Soul just joined with 2 posts - great name!!!

were you someone else who got banned?

just curious - why the sudden interest in SDL

 

[lioness]

Looks like share price will half now?

"Missing jet: Sundance Resources mining project in west Africa.

A private jet carrying at least 9 people, mostly Australian mining executives, has gone missing in west Africa, Australian media said.

The mining exectutives were from resouce company Sundance Resources. The Perth based mining company operates an Iron Ore mine in Cameroon, near the border with Gabon.

Families of those on board were told that the plane was due to land in Cameroon around 1am local time, however the private jet never landed at its destination and a search and rescue operation was now under way.

Australias Nine Network said those on board the plane incolude mining investor Ken Talbot, who is worth around A$1billion, Sundance Resources managing director and CEO Don Lewis, independent director Craig Oliver and non executive directors John Jones and Geoff Wedlock."

 

[sjx]

Looks like share price will half now?

"Missing jet: Sundance Resources mining project in west Africa.

A private jet carrying at least 9 people, mostly Australian mining executives, has gone missing in west Africa, Australian media said.

The mining exectutives were from resouce company Sundance Resources. The Perth based mining company operates an Iron Ore mine in Cameroon, near the border with Gabon.

Families of those on board were told that the plane was due to land in Cameroon around 1am local time, however the private jet never landed at its destination and a search and rescue operation was now under way.

Australias Nine Network said those on board the plane incolude mining investor Ken Talbot, who is worth around A$1billion, Sundance Resources managing director and CEO Don Lewis, independent director Craig Oliver and non executive directors John Jones and Geoff Wedlock."

really tragic, tragic news. hopefully they are ok.

how about you worry about the families involved and SDL board themselves before worrying about the shareprice?

 

[5haretrader]

We can't control what others think. For some poor souls out there they worry more about their investment than the health of others. But this is truly tragic news, I hope for the best for both the directors and their families.