GMG - Goodman Group

[fureien]

thats not until next year though
i know thats not very long considering we're almost in june but i hope the drop is only temporary, the stock seems to have found support at 23 cents...though ive thought that for like 3 support levels already

i bought some more to lower my average. but that was at 25 -_-

my stocks keep getting diluted this month

 

[johannlo]

Today's AFR (sorry can't link as I read the paper one and I don't subscribe online) has some more info, basically the terms of the loan are a bit opaque and its unclear how much interest they are being gouged, AFR has floated a worst case estimate of over 13%!!!

Also they are saying that even with this cash injection it only gets them over the hump in the short term suggesting that there is fundamental issues that will only be delayed not resolved by this.

After my unprofitable attempt to bottom pick BBI I'm staying well away from drowning in debt property groups for now lol

 

[fureien]

wow i dont get this market at all
standard and poor rating out
saying its a BBB rating and NEGATIVE
but stock price jumps 10%


is negative BBB a good thing? 0.o

i mean i know they mentioned that GMG has good liquidity. but they "run out" in may 2010 lol

 

[johannlo]

Furien its not always about the fundamentals. Probably the market thinking that it was oversold so traders looking to catch a bargain. The buyers are probably looking short term or bargain hunting. Observe the recent wild fluctuations in all the other heavily leveraged property groups.

I wouldn't hold much confidence in the medium-long term outlook but then again what do I know

 

[fureien]

lol i am just waiting for it to go up so i can break even lol
but it keeps dropping at 25 cents
but i see what you mean.

 

[fureien]

urgh
forgot to change a 1 month old sell order. order got processed at 0.325 on wednesday, originally bought in at 36 cents and averaged down during the month low to 30 cents

bought back in at 36 cents
sold at 37 cause i sensed a reversal
was half correct. dropped down to 33.5 cents
went to lunch, came back and it recovered. so i put a buy order again at 36, didnt get processed this time tho

is it just me or does 36cents, this stock and me have a thing in common lol
i feel like im just throwing brokerage fees around


does the s and p removal of gmg from asx 50 mean anything significant...market didnt react much

 

[soren_lorensen]

urgh
forgot to change a 1 month old sell order. order got processed at 0.325 on wednesday, originally bought in at 36 cents and averaged down during the month low to 30 cents

bought back in at 36 cents
sold at 37 cause i sensed a reversal
was half correct. dropped down to 33.5 cents
went to lunch, came back and it recovered. so i put a buy order again at 36, didnt get processed this time tho

is it just me or does 36cents, this stock and me have a thing in common lol
i feel like im just throwing brokerage fees around


does the s and p removal of gmg from asx 50 mean anything significant...market didnt react much

mate not sure but what about this:

check out latest news, queries to gmg about share price fluctuations and possible insider trading???

insider trading? good for price?

 

[fureien]

oh my god it happened again, after fluctuating around 36 cents this week i put a sell order at 40 cents thinking there was heaps of resistance there and the stock wasnt going anywhere


...got knocked out in preopen... missed 10% of extra profit...sigh

im on major tilt with gmg.

now shud i buy back in (again....for the 5th time) and ride it to 50 or just give up and look elsewhere. volume looks strong again. i know it can hit 50 cents. just a matter of am i gunna sell out too early again -_- and can i bare living through the "oh man i missed out again" ordeal

 

[johannlo]

Look mate if you set a sell order it implies you're happy to get that price.
Now if the price goes higher you've still locked in your profit.

You can't keep think about 'missed profits' because thinking like that is the surest way of getting suckered into making some very bad moves. By all means learn for next time but don't get hung up on it.

If 40c was a good result for you then it doesn't matter what it ends up at. You stick to your targets and learn for next time.

If 40c isn't good for you then I question why you set the sell target at all i.e. you are implying that your fundamental strategy was the wrong one, which I'm guessing you set the sell because you were getting spooked. If so I would be happy to take the small win and walk away as obviously you did not rate GMG's chances.

Now the price keeps going up and your first reaction is to think 'I was wrong' - yes - but you don't know how wrong or right you are going to be moving forwards, conditions have changed already, moreover you haven't even posted any TA justifying your potential decision. I may be wrong and if so I apologise but your post does sound very knee jerk, and thats the worst way to base an investment or trading decision.

You need to work out what your strategy is for a particular stock based on the facts available and have the nerve to stick through it unless you get new info or the market turns on you. Look at the charts and the info and there's usually hints (patterns, momentum, moving averages, how the dips or drops have corresponded with recent announcements). Whatever you do don't think about jumping in right away again, cool down a bit, chew on some facts first then make a calculated move you're willing to back in face of short term reversal. If you then go for another 'cheap' exit then do so on an informed basis.

 

[Bullock]

GMG put on a strong showing this week.
45 cents.
Does anyone else feel a capital raising or rights issue coming as their price gets stronger?

 

[Doris]

oh my god it happened again, after fluctuating around 36 cents this week i put a sell order at 40 cents thinking there was heaps of resistance there and the stock wasnt going anywhere


...got knocked out in preopen... missed 10% of extra profit...sigh

im on major tilt with gmg.

now shud i buy back in (again....for the 5th time) and ride it to 50 or just give up and look elsewhere. volume looks strong again. i know it can hit 50 cents. just a matter of am i gunna sell out too early again -_- and can i bare living through the "oh man i missed out again" ordeal

johannlo's response was excellent comprehensive advice.

You were happy with your profit when you put in your sell so remember the times when you didn't sell and it retraced.

A profit is a profit. Not easy to accept when your mind over-rides your gut instinct, but look forward with the lesson.

I feel empathic, being happy to take 10% profit in 24 hours on BLY on Thursday to see it rise another 19% on Friday!
As johannlo queried, are your reasons for buying still there?
If so, look for weakness for re-entry... or look for possible profit above its current price.

 

[fureien]

oh i initially set 40 cents as a target because
a) there was heavy resistance in the form of large number of selling volume against buying volume
b) it was losing momentum. in the sense that the previous days (with the same amount of volume) it was making significant gains. but towards the end of last week, it kept fluctuating up and down around 36 cents.

so i figured at the current rate the market would probably trade up to the resistance (being 40 cents) and we will see a bit of retrace, inwhich case i will buy in again, because i was confident that it will break through the 40 cents mark eventually, just not this soon.

so aftr a whole week of heavy volume but not much movement, it suddenly shoots past 40cent as if there wasnt any resisitance. thats what surprised me.
i at least expected a little resistance play, but like i said. 100 sellers got taken out during preopen.

oh well. my initial intentions were to trade up to 50 cents cause thats a breakout point. and take profits in certain points where traders start taking profits early and then buying back in.

in short i expected a little MEL action.


but yes, i know better than to buy in again purely being influenced by my missing out of profits.

but i would still consider it because 50 cents is a breakout point, so even if i buy in above 40 cents, i will still make some money.

 

[persistentone]

Did anyone else notice the Goodman income security GMPPA traded strongly up on much higher than normal volumes two weeks before the key announcement on Chinese funding?

Isn't that just obviously people trading on insider information?

 

[cicak_kupang]

so where to from here,for the SP??????????????
Id expect to sit around this 40c mark considering thats what gmg had in thier last asx stmnt. any ideas guys..... unless there is any real material value adding in the forseeable futeure, im not sure if there will be any real momentum.....

 

[daniboy01]

so where to from here,for the SP??????????????
Id expect to sit around this 40c mark considering thats what gmg had in thier last asx stmnt. any ideas guys..... unless there is any real material value adding in the forseeable futeure, im not sure if there will be any real momentum.....

Yeah spot on. Still around the 40c mark. Dont really see it moving either way. HS yesterday mentioned it being a very complicated business model that is difficult to value. They are awaiting its restructuring plans.

 

[persistentone]

Does someone have a good theory why Goodman's income security moved from under 40 cents to nearly 50 cents in the last month, in light of a credit downgrade from Moody's?

Can someone summarize the debt that is due in the next 12 months, and how much will the Chinese partnership help with that? How much debt does that agreement leave uncovered, and what are the prospects of asset sales sufficient to cover the remaining debt?

 

[Looingforvalue]

GMG will need to make a $1bn plus share issue soon, may be at 35cents a share. That will dilute its NTA to about 65 cents a unit and its earnings per unit to about 5-6 cents. The best it can distribute in dividend is 5 cents a unit, giving it a yield of 11%.

This is one company that has mucked up its capital raising. And it is allowed to do so because the Goodman family has a disproportionate influence on the board despite its small shareholding. I suspect the family has avoided share issues because it is not able to participate.

It would have saved shareholders a lot of grief, if they had made the issue they, reportedly were pushing into doing earlier this year at 90cents a share, 3 times the size.

Alas, myopia was in the way. So now the company has to raise capital after its share prices had been shredded.....so forget the 70% yield.

 

[persistentone]

GMG will need to make a $1bn plus share issue soon, may be at 35cents a share. That will dilute its NTA to about 65 cents a unit and its earnings per unit to about 5-6 cents. The best it can distribute in dividend is 5 cents a unit, giving it a yield of 11%.

This is one company that has mucked up its capital raising. And it is allowed to do so because the Goodman family has a disproportionate influence on the board despite its small shareholding. I suspect the family has avoided share issues because it is not able to participate.

It would have saved shareholders a lot of grief, if they had made the issue they, reportedly were pushing into doing earlier this year at 90cents a share, 3 times the size.

Alas, myopia was in the way. So now the company has to raise capital after its share prices had been shredded.....so forget the 70% yield.

I would never buy the GMG directly, only the income security GMPPA.

And based on what you say I guess the reason GMPPA has come up so much in the last month is because the market believes the capital raising for GMG will succeed in some form.

 

[Fatcat]

Their price continues to rise. Any thoughts on if/when they will hit the market for a capital raising?

 

[enigmatic]

Unless they really need the capital raising i think anything under $4 would be pointless. Lets face it they have dropped from high of $7.40.. 55c is a fair discount if you ask me.