People are still spending

[sammy84]

I helped out a mate today for a job, which involved us entering 5 different shopping centers. Sometimes its good to to view the economy on a practical level, rather than merely following reports. Here were some observations I had;

• Each shopping center was extremely busy
• The cafes were filled with people (we couldn't eat at the cafe of our choice as there were no tables).
• I ducked in to buy something from myer and was greeted with a line so long to pay that I didn't bother.

Combine this with 77% clearance rate today in Victoria, and the conclusion must be reached that people are still spending.

I know the bears out there are going to respond to this with the worst is yet to come etc. We have been in a bear market for over a year, it should be worse that this.

 

[wonderrman]

Combine this with 77% clearance rate today in Victoria, and the conclusion must be reached that people are still spending.

I know the bears out there are going to respond to this with the worst is yet to come etc. We have been in a bear market for over a year, it should be worse that this.

You must remember that the stock market is forward thinking, the economy is not. wonder.

 

[sammy84]

Hi Wonderman

I appreciate this concept, but it must also be noted that the market isn't a perfect forecasting mechanism and Irrational Despondence can apply. The stock market is 6-9 months forward looking and we have been in a bear market for 16 months, you do the math....

Sammy

 

[overit]

I hear you. I have just moved back up to Cairns and was expecting things to have died in the ass but it seems busier than ever and its not even the season yet. One would think the tourist market would be the first to get whacked but there is no lack of foreign tourists here! God bless those lovely european lasses and their ample tanned bossoms flaunting it out by the esplanade.

Construction has died since I was last here a year ago.

 

[weird]

I'm not sure what industry you work in, but mine, I have seen 3 rounds of redundancies, and the 4th put on hold as we were bought out recently ... not sure how they report unemployment figures, or if people are just spending redundancy payouts, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the property market affected in the 400-500K range over the next 2 years due to inflated prices due to government incentives, and especially now with people (and more in the future) unable to pay mortgages due to unemployment, ... while this has no bearing on share prices ... but regarding this topic, individual spending may not yet appear to be affected, corporate spending has, which affects the entertainment and hospitality industries at least , which including travel, hotels, nightclubs etc ... the general public are a small portion to the overall revenue for these businesses, compared to corporate spending, and am sure it is also taking its toll on many other businesses.

 

[bunyip]

The shopping centres in my area, as far as I can see, appear to be doing the same brisk trade as always. I'd be interested to know though, how their figures are shaping up.
A big concreting firm here has just put off more than 100 men, indicating a serious slowdown in the building industry.
A taxi driver told me in Brisbane about six weeks ago that the taxi business has been abnormally quiet since about October last hear, and taxis are always one of the first to start feeling the effects of a downturn, according to this cabbie whose been in business for more than 30 years.
Some big wig from Westpac said in a TV interview a few weeks back that their business lending is down only 10% compared to 12 months ago. You'd think their loans to business would have dropped further than that, given the extent of the global meltdown.

So I'm blowed if I know....the signals seem to be conflicting at this stage. A definite slowdown, but perhaps not as severe as what we might have expected?
The next year or so should tell a clearer picture.

 

[Dowdy]

dont look at the shopping centre, look at the car park. If the car park is starting to become empty then you know things are starting to get though

 

[sammy84]

dont look at the shopping centre, look at the car park. If the car park is starting to become empty then you know things are starting to get though

I was unable to get a park, had to drive around for ages. I agree things aren't rosy either. Just not sure that one of the worst bear markets in history is justified to date in Aus.

 

[johenmo]

It's Rudd's stimulus package combined with the desperate sales from retailers!!! People I know who work in the retail sector say there are more browsers and sales are (anecdotally) smaller.

And with the first home owners money, people have to furnish their new houses.

We have trained our society to spend, spend, spend. So it will take a while for behaviour to change significantly, I reckon.

 

[lusk]

Just because a shopping center is full doesn't mean they are buying anything.

 

[Glen48]

I am expecting soup kitchen a mile long.. my Brother who works for the PMG claims this will be over in 6 months and nothing to worry about he has never had a hard day in his life pay there every week for 28 yrs ++. When you look at the TV shows they still carry on with Britney Spears love life and other drivel unless you read a paper and look at other TV stations you don't change your ideas. People in shops will need to keep buying necessary's but shop need to turn over a lot to make a profit. Still I would love to be wrong but there is more bad news arriving every day and no way out of this mess until we have a collapse.

 

[gfresh]

Went to the local shopping centre during the week. Noticed a massive difference between the amount of people there during the week, and weekend.

People on the weekend was packed, but it was almost a ghost town during the week - not that good for paying wages or keeping small businesses going that are open 6-7 days a week.

Keep an eye out on people wandering around - those walking around empty handed, compared to those with shopping bags in their hands. There can be a big difference there too. Kids love to hang out at the centres these days, just walk around it seems for something to do.

 

[rocket67]

In our home improvement business - The last 2 weeks we have experienced a major surge in sales. Obviously a result of the fiscal stimulus payments. Thankyou Mr Rudd!

We are heading into what is normally our quiet time of year. All employees have been notified that holidays are well and truly off the menu until at least June.

Sales for January and February had been down by about 20%.

We will make hay while the sun shines - But what happens when the Fiscal Stimulus money runs out? Maybe send everybody on holidays for a while.

Rocket.

 

[nunthewiser]

Noticed a lot more classified ads appearing in the papers . ie .for sale ........ cars especially and toys ie boats , quads ,jet ski,s and the like

buyers market one might even say .

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I work in the resort/ hotel industry and I can tell you forward occupancy has fallen of a cliff. And not just for us but industry wide. Hotels in Melbourne that usually run at 92% are down to 40%.
Staff getting laid off left right and center.
I would be suprised if queensland Island resorts are even open in 6 months. There all for sale but no buyers.
I used to make 25k per year in water sales by simple asking guests if they would like still or sparkling with there meals. Its stright tap water now.
The service sector is huge in Australia.

G

 

[So_Cynical]

People are still spending....just not as much as before and not as many people.

A few more empty shops appearing, shopping centers not as busy, parking is
easier, bargains more plentiful....today i was in Newton for the first time in a
few years, beautiful Sunday afternoon in one of the busiest restaurant strips
in Sydney, and couldn't help but notice all the empty restaurants..also noticed
a couple of places for sale...and that's most unusual for King Street.

 

[pilots]

I have a friend who is working in a WA IGA, I can tell you IGA is very worried at the moment, they have been watching what the people are buying, what they have found out is a lot of shoppers now are only buying the specials, now if this keeps up you will see some small shops going to the wall.

 

[sammy84]

I knew this thread would bring the bears out again As I said earlier, not suggesting we are likely to avoid recession. Just making a simple observation that shopping centers can were busy, hence there is still remains a certain degree of prevailing optimism within in the consumers out there. So long as people still spend or are willing to spend the world will still turn. I think Irrational Despondence sums it up perfectly.

 

[sinner]

People are still spending....just not as much as before and not as many people.

A few more empty shops appearing, shopping centers not as busy, parking is
easier, bargains more plentiful....today i was in Newton for the first time in a
few years, beautiful Sunday afternoon in one of the busiest restaurant strips
in Sydney, and couldn't help but notice all the empty restaurants..also noticed
a couple of places for sale...and that's most unusual for King Street.

Hi So_Cynical,

I was also in Newtown today, about 9-10AM, wandering the streets after having been up all night partying then djing at after-party.

All the cafes had plenty of breakfast customers from what I could see (and since I don't have a car I tend to examine every single shop on my side of the street ), and me and my room-mate did our bit getting some fresh juice and pies.

Lots of the "shopping" shops are closed on Sunday so people don't travel out as heavily until it gets dark for dinner. It is pretty busy all day and night Saturday.

A friend lives in Marrickville and she can only get a couple of days worth of work a week, usually on Sundays at cafes in Newtown.

Just my (sleep deprived for 31 hours) perspective.

 

[So_Cynical]

I knew this thread would bring the bears out again

Is it ok to resent being labeled a bear...assuming u included my realist post.

Id like to think my posts express what i see and feel etc, i don't have a position either way.

-----------

Sinner...yes there were lots of eatery's doing well...its not like King street will ever be a ghost
town, just thought it was a little quieter than at its peak a few years ago...people are still
spending, and i did walk past 4 empty Thai places...maybe people are just over Thai food :dunno:

And having said that, i was looking at a hotel company tonight, reporting there hotel occupancy
down about 75% - so some are spending others not.