Victorian Fires

[biggles]

I don't think Olinda but it is changing so often. You can check here
http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/incidents/incident_updates.htm

 

[nunthewiser]

thanks for that link

 

[doctorj]

This is making front page news even in the UK. I hope everyone that come here and their friends and family are safe. I have family in the area and I'm very pleased they're all OK. Not sure about their homes, but that's a distant 2nd in importance.

To all those here that have criticised people for electing to stay, need to reconsider. The fact is you don't know how you'll react when something like this happens.

I was involved in the bad fires that hit the Perth hills in Jan 2005. We managed to get the all horses out the day before it hit. That evening we were told we were safe , but at 5am the next morning the fire suddenly and unexpectedly changed direction and the fire was burning back toward us. Faced with the choice to stay or go, we stayed and fought fires all day and night. We were quite lucky in that the house was surrounded by a well watered, nicely spaced orchard and we had a dam, our own pumps and plenty of diesel but there were some hairy moments. The fire brigade couldn't get through. The sound of the pine plantation exploding at the back of the property isn't something I'll soon forget.

2) I'm starting to be concerned about the state of our Insurance funds. Queensland in flood disaster mode; Victoria has lost hundreds of millions if not billions in property, lives, farms and community infrastructure and the stockmarket has melted. How solvent are the companies in these circumstances? We'll find out quick enough...

I wouldn't worry about this - when insurance claims in a particular area exceed a certain level as a result of a single event it triggers a special type of insurance that insurance companies have in place to protect themselves in circumstances such as these. It's called catastrophe cover and is generally seeded with a number of reinsurers. These are usually Global companies (eg. Lloyds syndicates etc) that are required to meet certain standards such as minimum credit ratings. The insurers themselves are required to keep cash on hand (or low risk, highly liquid investments) at a minimum to the level at which this cat cover kicks in.

The level at which Cat cover kicks in varies from insurer to insurer based on their reinsurance management policy, but we're talking millions or tens of millions of retained liability. Not hundreds of millions or billions.

 

[nunthewiser]

To all those here that have criticised people for electing to stay, need to reconsider. The fact is you don't know how you'll react when something like this happens.

I was involved in the bad fires that hit the Perth hills in Jan 2005. We managed to get the all horses out the day before it hit. That evening we were told we were safe , but at 5am the next morning the fire suddenly and unexpectedly changed direction and the fire was burning back toward us. Faced with the choice to stay or go, we stayed and fought fires all day and night. We were quite lucky in that the house was surrounded by a well watered, nicely spaced orchard and we had a dam, our own pumps and plenty of diesel but there were some hairy moments. The fire brigade couldn't get through. The sound of the pine plantation exploding at the back of the property isn't something I'll soon forget.


.

I too was in the perth hills in darlington .i too elected to stay with my father . we were touched by the hand of god .. our neihbours house got taken , it skipped ours and the next one and ate another 2 on our street .

i wish this experience on no-one as i for one never wish to see it again

my heart goes out to those affected in any way in this current tragedy

i have friends in olinda hence my previous question

 

[nunthewiser]

I must add that in no way am i comparing the perth fires to current victorian tragedy as it does not even measure on the ricter scale , i am merely pointing out that it is an experience that should not be experienced by anybody

 

[doctorj]

I must add that in no way am i comparing the perth fires to current victorian tragedy as it does not even measure on the ricter scale , i am merely pointing out that it is an experience that should not be experienced by anybody

The scale of the tragedy has been shocking. Obviously the fires I referred to weren't as bad, but let me tell you, at the time, I'd have said there was nothing like it and I wouldn't wish it on anybody.

It really felt like being smack in the middle of a warzone.

 

[MrBurns]

Brumby (Vic premier) says they will be reviewing the "stay or go" policy.

As a lot of the deaths are related to people staying and trying to save houses that's not a bad idea, too bad they didnt think of it before this happened.

Anybody could see that Saturday was a very dangerous day and as it turned out it was that and more.

The warnings were inadequate

 

[Julia]

I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
Houses can be rebuilt.

 

[MrBurns]

I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
Houses can be rebuilt.

I agree, If it's not insured at least they have a reason but to risk your life to save an insured house ??? Makes no sense.
One of my realatives did exactly that last night ,left Melbourne for Yea and it's not even the family home, a hobby farm.
Crazy.

 

[numbercruncher]

I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
Houses can be rebuilt.

Yes completely crazy hey - the need to review the stay or go policy to protect irrational people from themselves.

 

[Prospector]

A lot of these fires were caused by cinder outbreaks, which occurred several kilometres ahead of the main fire. There were no warnings for many of the areas of the country that were badly devastated; the people had less than 15 minutes from thinking they were safe, to being fully on fire.

It seems it wasnt a matter of 'flight, or stay and fight' - there was simply nowhere for them to go. And then the wind changed for those who decided to escape.

So unless all of country Victoria was evacuated, this tragedy was always going to happen given the horrific conditions that were occuring Saturday morning. The only reason I think that Adelaide escaped it (our hills are within 7k's of the CBD) was because we had a cool change at 1.30 pm. It was hell just before then and we said at home that Victoria was going to be in for a bad day. We just didnt think it would be this bad.

 

[MrBurns]

So unless all of country Victoria was evacuated, this tragedy was always going to happen given the horrific conditions that were occuring Saturday morning. .

Julia you will find in the coming days that, like I said from the start, the "stay and fight or go" rule will come under criticism for not recognizing extreme risk and making it clear to people that they are risking their lives to stay.

 

[sam76]

you can't evacuate a whole state.

some of the things people here are suggesting are physically impossible to implement.

1: no one knows where the fires will start.
2: huge amounts of people live in 'high risk' areas
3: those 'high risk' areas increase in size as the temp increases and rh decreases.
3: as people have been mentioning - there wasn't enough time to implement individual fire plans (so how the hell do you evacuate whole towns??)

We don't know why a lot of these people died.

What we aren't hearing about is how many people survived because of their plans.

The media is doing a swell job of focussing on the negatives.

We do know that (again) a lot were caught out in their cars, which shouldn't have happened.

CARS DO NOT PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE BARRIER TO RADIANT HEAT AND ARE FULL OF TOXIC PLASTICS.

I think a lot of you should put you blame finger back into your pocket until we know what were the reasons behind these people's deaths.

The CFA constantly reviews it's policies after every major blaze.

It is not like the government.

if it finds a better system - IT WILL IMPLEMENT IT.

 

[Calliope]

I don't understand why people would risk their lives to save a house.
Houses can be rebuilt.

It is instinctive in all animals that their home is a safe haven, a place where you should feel secure in a time of danger. It goes against every instinct to flee the home.

I shall never forget the image of my wife, with tears streaming down her face and clutching the cat (which was as reluctant to leave as we were) when we were finally forced to step off the verandah into a waiting boat during the Brisbane 1974 floods.

But we were never in any physical danger. I cannot even hazard a guess as to what my reactions would be in in a firestorm when the realisation hits you that your safe haven has become your enemy.

 

[MrBurns]

you can't evacuate a whole state.
some of the things people here are suggesting are physically impossible to implement.
1: no one knows where the fires will start.
2: huge amounts of people live in 'high risk' areas
3: those 'high risk' areas increase in size as the temp increases and rh decreases.
3: as people have been mentioning - there wasn't enough time to implement individual fire plans (so how the hell do you evacuate whole towns??)
We don't know why a lot of these people died.
What we aren't hearing about is how many people survived because of their plans.
The media is doing a swell job of focussing on the negatives.
We do know that (again) a lot were caught out in their cars, which shouldn't have happened.
CARS DO NOT PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE BARRIER TO RADIANT HEAT AND ARE FULL OF TOXIC PLASTICS.
I think a lot of you should put you blame finger back into your pocket until we know what were the reasons behind these people's deaths.
The CFA constantly reviews it's policies after every major blaze.
It is not like the government.
if it finds a better system - IT WILL IMPLEMENT IT.

No one is looking to a volunteer organisation to fix these things it's up to the State Govt.

People keep harping on about how you cant evacuate a whole state, well no ones saying that.

Whats being said by me and it's now in the media is that the warnings were not strong enough. I walked out of my house in suburban Melbourne on Saturday morning and was hit by a blast furnace of heat combined with strong winds.

I knew then that Saturday would be trouble, but the authorities did not stress the urgency enough for people to understand that their lives were at stake.

Furthermore the forecast should have been enough to act on with these warnings, the previous week had already had several 40+ days.

The conditions Saturday were the worst I've ever seen and look at the result, so why didn't the authorities hit the panic button the day before ???

There will be a Royal Commission now, I usually think they are a waste of time but I fully support this one and the findings will be as above I've got no doubt.

 

[tech/a]

The only reason I think that Adelaide escaped it (our hills are within 7k's of the CBD) was because we had a cool change at 1.30 pm.

I regularly drive between Willunga to Mt Barker to Gawler.

During the last outbreak of 37c+ days I have never seen such a police/EFS presence on the roads.
Dozens of them everywhere.

If a fire doesn't start or your on top of an outbreak as quickly as possible then you have a better chance of avoiding disaster.

Plus the Harrowgate arsonist (a 40 yr old mother!!!!!) is in jail.

We were lucky this time.

 

[sam76]

No one is looking to a volunteer organisation to fix these things it's up to the State Govt.

People keep harping on about how you cant evacuate a whole state, well no ones saying that.

Whats being said by me and it's now in the media is that the warnings were not strong enough. I walked out of my house in suburban Melbourne on Saturday morning and was hit by a blast furnace of heat combined with strong winds.

I knew then that Saturday would be trouble, but the authorities did not stress the urgency enough for people to understand that their lives were at stake.

Furthermore the forecast should have been enough to act on with these warnings, the previous week had already had several 40+ days.

The conditions Saturday were the worst I've ever seen and look at the result, so why didn't the authorities hit the panic button the day before ???

There will be a Royal Commission now, I usually think they are a waste of time but I fully support this one and the findings will be as above I've got no doubt.

I support the commisssion as well and the results will be implemented by the CFA.

I really can't agree with you on the warnings though mate.

Just because you didn't see many of them doesn't mean they weren't there.

Just like you can't expect a fire truck in a fire nor can you expect an individual warning.

a lot of it comes down to common sense as well.

You live in a city and the risks are not there for you (as much)

Most people who live with wildfire risk on a day-to-day basis would have known.

 

[sam76]

The conditions Saturday were the worst I've ever seen and look at the result, so why didn't the authorities hit the panic button the day before ???

just out of interest Mr. Burns.

How would you have done things differently in the lead up to Saurday?

I wont question what you write - i'm just interested.

 

[Prospector]

I regularly drive between Willunga to Mt Barker to Gawler.

During the last outbreak of 37c+ days I have never seen such a police/EFS presence on the roads. Dozens of them everywhere.

Plus the Harrowgate arsonist (a 40 yr old mother!!!!!) is in jail.

We were lucky this time.

They were certainly targetting known arsonists. Apparently we have quite a number of them!

I wonder if the commission will look at preventive issues such as requiring people not to use more than 155l/day, and not being able to water gardens.

 

[sam76]

I guess another thing is that you can warn people as much as you like.

If they don't want to go they don't have to go.

You can't make them leave.

and we all know how stupid people can be....