FLX - Felix Resources

[noirua]

Felix Resources 1st quarterly report is out next Wednesday and should show exactly how coal sales are going. So, Wednesday or at the AGM on Friday, we will probably here a view on currency expectations and the position FLX is in.

It is the price obtained in Aussie dollars that is all important now and whether there are plans to reduce production, or indeed, consider if any plans for Moolarben should be put back.

The Felix share price seems to have taken into account the likely lower coal price, especially PCI and semi-soft coking coal, and hopefully we can see some recovery in the coming months.

 

[pacestick]

Im just counting on this being a long term play now as the world slows down then restarts could be, well my guess is four years, just a guess before this share is worth the $35.00 plus it should be. could of done without a lot of slick salesmen selling credit that their companies didnt have to sell to people who had no hope of repaying it

 

[noirua]

Deliveries for October 2008, out of the R G Tanna terminal , Gladstone. ( will miss first quarter).

Yarrabee (100%) 84,815 tonnes ( equates to 1.02 mtpa against 1.8mtpa target: extra coal is sold internally.)

Minerva (51%) 248,820 tonnes ( equates to 3mtpa, 1.52mtpa (51%) against target 1.275mtpa).

 

[noirua]

Link to Felix Resources first quarterly report to the 30th September 2008: http://www.felixresources.com.au/siteadmin/mod_pdf/pdfs/20081029_September_2008_Quarterly_Report.pdf

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources have closed the week quite well at $11.86 after plunging below $8.00 the week before.
This has been mainly on the AGM Friday that was fairly upbeat on prospects for the Yarrabee mine and the Moolarben Project, the latter being a shallow low cost mine.
The week Aussie has helped keep coal profits high in the light of the greenbacks plunge.
Bid prospects remain as a backdrop that must also be in the share price to some degree.

 

[noirua]

Steel Guru reported last week that a spokesman for Felix Resources said that a number of earlier proposals to acquire all of the company were still on the table, but were not finalized under its time frame due to uncertain financial markets, opening the door to expanded discussions.

 

[pacestick]

Steel Guru reported last week that a spokesman for Felix Resources said that a number of earlier proposals to acquire all of the company were still on the table, but were not finalized under its time frame due to uncertain financial markets, opening the door to expanded discussions.

Hopefully at least part of the difficulty is felix holding out for a price that reflects pre slump and post slump value

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources have now recovered 60% at $12.45.
Report from Steel Guru that all the former bids remain on the table and a few more bidders have since arrived has raised sentiment, together with improving markets.
The AGM and 1st quarterly report were if anything a slight negative factor, though MD Mr Brian Flannery's report was mildly encouraging on the Moolarben go-ahead in November and Yarrabee.

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources Company Presentation: http://www.felixresources.com.au/si...081104_Felix _Resources_ AGM_Presentation.pdf

The recovery of Felix Resources to $13.42 may have more to do with the bid situation that seems to have revived. Companies cited as being interested, not confirmed by Felix Resources, are Anglo American, Rio Tinto, Peabody, BHP Billiton and Vale.

FLX's Quarterly showed coal sales below Merrill Lynch's target of 1.3 million tonnes at just under 1 million tonnes. Reasons that a changeover at the Ashton Longwall Mine and building up coal reserves at Yarrabee for the PCI washery.
Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has said he has seen no signs of problems in the companies supply of PCI and semi-soft coking supplies.
Felix target is for 5mtpa against the 2008 4.6mtpa.

Other sources generally raise concerns about prices and demand for coking coals and PCI coal.

 

[Reealjrd]

Hello Friends,

Everybody here talking about Felix Resources what is it. Can any body explain me properly about it.

 

[pacestick]

Hello Friends,

Everybody here talking about Felix Resources what is it. Can any body explain me properly about it.

It is a mining company with a number of prospects around the wotld but in particular producing coal fields in queensland and New South Wales. its prospects of further growth are good which combined with the high demand that was experienced in the last few years and is likely to return in the future mke it an attractive takeover target

 

[Sean K]

Hello Friends,

Everybody here talking about Felix Resources what is it. Can any body explain me properly about it.

It's actually a company set up by some old cat who fought his way out of the alley and into corporate stardom. He found tremendous success considering he could not speak, but his downfall in the end was his lack of colour.

Me explain properly.

Sounds like a great buy to me..

 

[michael_selway]

Felix Resources Company Presentation: http://www.felixresources.com.au/si...081104_Felix _Resources_ AGM_Presentation.pdf

The recovery of Felix Resources to $13.42 may have more to do with the bid situation that seems to have revived. Companies cited as being interested, not confirmed by Felix Resources, are Anglo American, Rio Tinto, Peabody, BHP Billiton and Vale.

FLX's Quarterly showed coal sales below Merrill Lynch's target of 1.3 million tonnes at just under 1 million tonnes. Reasons that a changeover at the Ashton Longwall Mine and building up coal reserves at Yarrabee for the PCI washery.
Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has said he has seen no signs of problems in the companies supply of PCI and semi-soft coking supplies.
Felix target is for 5mtpa against the 2008 4.6mtpa.

Other sources generally raise concerns about prices and demand for coking coals and PCI coal.

Yeah not bad today . Hey Noirua it says they can reach 16mtpa by 2012, do you know how much they can get beyond 2012? Or is 16mtpa roughly the max rate?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.0 165.2 281.3 320.3
DPS 17.0 83.0 138.0 156.1

Date: 13/10/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 21
Australian coal miner Felix Resources will soon announce the outcome of itsauction. MD Brian Flannery said that the global companies involved in the salesprocess were under pressure but were still enthusiastic about the assets. Felixmay inform the market as early as 15 October 2008. Its share price has halvedduring the global credit crisis, so it is uncertain whether a takeover bid wouldbe accepted or the company would wait for an improvement in the market

thx

MS

 

[noirua]

Hi m_s, Providing there is sufficient demand the coal output of Felix Resources will be far above the 16mtpa forecast.

Yarrabee (100% owned) will/should produce 2.8 mtpa by the end of 2009. There is an area north of Yarabbee called Wilpeena that is being drilled to firm up a resource. This may run alongside Yarabbee until 2016-20 producing a further 3mtpa.

Ashton (55%) looks set to continue production until 2030 if the area continues to show increasing reserves, and coal mined should reach 2 - 2.5mtpa for Felix going forward.

Minerva (51%) produces 1.25mtpa for Felix and more interesting is the large coalfield at nearby Athena (560million tonnes inferred), presently being drilled. Production applicable to Felix could reach 5mtpa by 2016.

Moolarben (80%) is expected to reach production applicable to Felix of about 3.2mtpa during 2010. The underground mine should add a further 6.4mtpa by around 2012.

Harry Brandt (100%) anthracite and high value thermal, will reach production around 2013. No figures are presently estimated for this mine.

Phillipson (91.2%) has about 4 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal and possible Gold, copper and other minerals. Presently being drilled and explored.

 

[noirua]

Felix Resources - 2008 Annual General Meeting brought by boardroom radio (40 mins): http://www.brr.com.au/event/53484/f...vers-duncan-chairman-and-mr-brian-flannery-md

 

[pacestick]

After sitting through that broadcast i can see why the board would hold out for a figure well above current price

 

[noirua]

After sitting through that broadcast i can see why the board would hold out for a figure well above current price

Yes, the present yield is 4.7% at $11.29 and despite Moolarben development costs and difficult markets in PCI coal and semi-soft coke, this should double over the next 3 years.
The reason for doubling dividends, despite lower coal prices, offset partly by the tanking Aussie v the greenback. Is the extra 3.2mtpa of thermal coal from Moolarben with the Korean Consortium, 10% shareholders, taking 2.8mtpa for the life of the mine.
Yarrabee production becomes all PCI coal during 2009, and production up 0.9mtpa to 2.8mtpa.
The Moolarben underground mine will add a further 6.4mtpa by 2012, that's the FLX plan anyway.

 

[noirua]

"Felix flush with coking coal supply", http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24652933-5005200,00.html

 

[noirua]

Article that is one week old, and covers a number of companies in the coal and mining sector, "Expectations for Bulk Commodities Falling": http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/20081111/expectations-for-bulk-commodities-falling_all.htm

 

[noirua]

MCC have announced a slow down in the next 2 months on coal exports, and that has hit many companies in the coal sector.
So far Felix have made no forward announcements after reporting their best month in October, recently.
The Minerva Mine (thermal coal in single ship loads) in QLD has coal exports from the RG Tanna Terminal, Gladstone Port, of 64,760 tonnes with ship in berth and 75,000 tonnes with an ETA of 7th Dec. The Yarrabee mine (PCI coal, mixed at port) has just 34,000 tonnes with an ETA of 2nd Dec.