FLX - Felix Resources
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I think the chance has improved but I have no idea what it was before. maybe it went from 25% to 35% or from 85% to 90%!
I doubt that anyone knew about the radical ASIC changes ahead of time. They're almost unbelievable. I don't have the skills to analyze the late trades but I don't think anyone is shorting FLX on a sustained basis. Not least because news flow could cause a sharp rally. Evidence of that is probably today's performance.
I do have the skills to analyze the value of Felix and with current coal prices it's in the mid 30's. There is a chance that a tilt last week could have seen the company go out in the mid 20s while sentiment was at an all time low. Now sentiment is improving and so is the AUD.
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A lawsuit may go ahead concerning Felix Resources (Auiron Energy) by PT Krakatau Steel (PTKS).
This action concerns the 5% holding by PTKS in S.A.S.E. (Felix 90%, Ausmelt 5%).
S.A.S.E. were responsible for the Pig Iron Furnace that was to become a 2.5mtpa production using iron ore from Peculiar Knob and Hawks Nest iron ore tenements and coal from the Phillipson tenement, all in South Australia. The feasibility plant is now owned by Ausmelt and is to be used for non-ferrous production.
This possibility had been mentioned in earlier reports from Felix Resources.
This action concerns the 5% holding by PTKS in S.A.S.E. (Felix 90%, Ausmelt 5%).
S.A.S.E. were responsible for the Pig Iron Furnace that was to become a 2.5mtpa production using iron ore from Peculiar Knob and Hawks Nest iron ore tenements and coal from the Phillipson tenement, all in South Australia. The feasibility plant is now owned by Ausmelt and is to be used for non-ferrous production.
This possibility had been mentioned in earlier reports from Felix Resources.
If this article proves true will felixs future sales be negativley impacted
SocGen warns China will suffer a deep slump P
"The collapse of emerging market economies will shake investors to the core. The great unwind has only just begun," said Albert Edwards, the bank's global strategist.
"The big surprise in store is what could happen in China. The potential for a deep recession in the US is already on the radar screen, but people will be stunned if China's economy contracts, as I believe it will. Investors could be massively caught out," he said.
"The consensus has a touching belief that emerging markets will prove resilient despite a deep downturn in developed economies. My view is that an outright contraction in global GDP is entirely possible next year."
"The emerging market boom is totally tied up with a decade of ballooning current account deficits in the US. Put that into reverse and you'll be surprised what pops out of the woodwork."
Mr Edwards said the vast accumulation of foreign exchange reserves – led by China with $1.8 trillion – had provided the "rocket fuel" of liquidity for frontier markets. This virtuous circle has now turned vicious as America tightens its belt. Countries in Asia and Latin America are intervening to prop up their currencies, causing reserves to fall.
"We could see monthly trade surpluses in the US within a year. The emerging market liquidity squeeze will intensify ferociously, and assets linked to the region will become toxic waste. That includes previously resilient banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered and Banco Santander," he said.
The gloomy forecast comes as Fitch Ratings warns of mounting distress for banks in China, where debt has been shunted off books to circumvent state limits on credit growth.
The pattern looks eerily like the use of "conduits" by Western banks at the height of the credit bubble.
The agency's China team, Charlene Chu and Chunling Wen, said banks had used an "underground market" on a large scale to stoke up lending. "These types of credit and/or institutions fall outside the traditional structures of financial supervision, exposing banks to a growing amount of risk that is for the most part hidden By getting a portion of their credit off books, Chinese banks are able to comply with official loan quotas while in practice exceeding them," he said.
Under the mechanism, the loans are packaged into wealth products and sold to investors searching for bumper yields. The parallel with the US sub-prime debacle is striking, although Fitch avoids an explicit parallel.
Moreover, the banks issue "entrusted loans" in which they act as piggy-in-the-middle between two sets of clients, keeping the credits of the portfolio sheet. These loans have reached 1.5 trillion yuan ($220bn).
Even without such off-books liabilities, the banks are facing a crunch as the economy slows hard and the property market stalls. Shenzen house prices are already down 30pc.
"The Chinese banking system is nearing the point at which it can no longer sustain additional large net withdrawals of liquidity without generating further strains on banks' ability to lend," it said.
Morgan Stanley said this month that China's housing market was heading for a "melt-down". Data is patchy and rarely reliable, but it is clear that home sales in Beijing, Shanghai and other Eastern cities have fallen drastically over the summer.
source daily telegraph
SocGen warns China will suffer a deep slump P
"The collapse of emerging market economies will shake investors to the core. The great unwind has only just begun," said Albert Edwards, the bank's global strategist.
"The big surprise in store is what could happen in China. The potential for a deep recession in the US is already on the radar screen, but people will be stunned if China's economy contracts, as I believe it will. Investors could be massively caught out," he said.
"The consensus has a touching belief that emerging markets will prove resilient despite a deep downturn in developed economies. My view is that an outright contraction in global GDP is entirely possible next year."
"The emerging market boom is totally tied up with a decade of ballooning current account deficits in the US. Put that into reverse and you'll be surprised what pops out of the woodwork."
Mr Edwards said the vast accumulation of foreign exchange reserves – led by China with $1.8 trillion – had provided the "rocket fuel" of liquidity for frontier markets. This virtuous circle has now turned vicious as America tightens its belt. Countries in Asia and Latin America are intervening to prop up their currencies, causing reserves to fall.
"We could see monthly trade surpluses in the US within a year. The emerging market liquidity squeeze will intensify ferociously, and assets linked to the region will become toxic waste. That includes previously resilient banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered and Banco Santander," he said.
The gloomy forecast comes as Fitch Ratings warns of mounting distress for banks in China, where debt has been shunted off books to circumvent state limits on credit growth.
The pattern looks eerily like the use of "conduits" by Western banks at the height of the credit bubble.
The agency's China team, Charlene Chu and Chunling Wen, said banks had used an "underground market" on a large scale to stoke up lending. "These types of credit and/or institutions fall outside the traditional structures of financial supervision, exposing banks to a growing amount of risk that is for the most part hidden By getting a portion of their credit off books, Chinese banks are able to comply with official loan quotas while in practice exceeding them," he said.
Under the mechanism, the loans are packaged into wealth products and sold to investors searching for bumper yields. The parallel with the US sub-prime debacle is striking, although Fitch avoids an explicit parallel.
Moreover, the banks issue "entrusted loans" in which they act as piggy-in-the-middle between two sets of clients, keeping the credits of the portfolio sheet. These loans have reached 1.5 trillion yuan ($220bn).
Even without such off-books liabilities, the banks are facing a crunch as the economy slows hard and the property market stalls. Shenzen house prices are already down 30pc.
"The Chinese banking system is nearing the point at which it can no longer sustain additional large net withdrawals of liquidity without generating further strains on banks' ability to lend," it said.
Morgan Stanley said this month that China's housing market was heading for a "melt-down". Data is patchy and rarely reliable, but it is clear that home sales in Beijing, Shanghai and other Eastern cities have fallen drastically over the summer.
source daily telegraph
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Hi pacestick, an interesting post on China and it is reported that coal is now building up in the ports in China. Restrictions are still in place, but for how much longer.
The price of "spot" coal out of Newcastle has fallen and was reported at US$137 (thermal coal) last Friday (still above the US$125 fix on 1st April 2008). The Aussie Dollar has fallen about 13% against the US$ and helps the price.
Felix have no problems with coal sales in the year ending June 30th 2009. It is what happens after that.
The price of "spot" coal out of Newcastle has fallen and was reported at US$137 (thermal coal) last Friday (still above the US$125 fix on 1st April 2008). The Aussie Dollar has fallen about 13% against the US$ and helps the price.
Felix have no problems with coal sales in the year ending June 30th 2009. It is what happens after that.
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It appears that the Moolarben Project may now go ahead after a change in the wording of the Mining Act was passed in the NSW Parliament today. Trading in FLX stock rose to over 1.6 million shares the highest for several years.
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Some bad news courtesy of Reuters:
SYDNEY, Sept 26 (Reuters) - A planned sale of Australian coal miner Felix Resources Ltd has generated interest from local and global miners despite recent market volatility, but the high price expectations could delay a deal.
.......
"It's looking less likely the transaction will happen in the near term," said the banker, who declined to be identified.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSYD36521720080926?rpc=44
Mind you, I'm no banker, nor am I familiar with the deal BUT I could also reasonably assume that a deal has become less likely.... in the short term.
SYDNEY, Sept 26 (Reuters) - A planned sale of Australian coal miner Felix Resources Ltd has generated interest from local and global miners despite recent market volatility, but the high price expectations could delay a deal.
.......
"It's looking less likely the transaction will happen in the near term," said the banker, who declined to be identified.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSYD36521720080926?rpc=44
Mind you, I'm no banker, nor am I familiar with the deal BUT I could also reasonably assume that a deal has become less likely.... in the short term.
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Providing estimates for Felix Resources profits are correct, then they wiill reach $1.12 billion in 2011 ( $784 million after tax for 2011, a forward PE of 4.5 at $18.00).
Analysts estimate profits, on average, at $2.10 a share in 2009, $411 million ( after tax $288 million, for a PE of 12.2 at $18.00)
The Reuters article is only correct, when it states mostly thermal coal, when it refers to Moolarben. Ashton mine is principally semi-soft coking coal and Yarrabee PCI coal. Minerva is PCI and thermal which is of consistant quality and exported in single ship loads.
Analysts estimate profits, on average, at $2.10 a share in 2009, $411 million ( after tax $288 million, for a PE of 12.2 at $18.00)
The Reuters article is only correct, when it states mostly thermal coal, when it refers to Moolarben. Ashton mine is principally semi-soft coking coal and Yarrabee PCI coal. Minerva is PCI and thermal which is of consistant quality and exported in single ship loads.
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Felix Resources jumped $1.45 to $19.45 this morning on the ASX announcement that they are still in talks with more than one party, concerning a change of control announcement, and expect to make an announcement in the next couple of weeks.
movement on the station we need the word to get around about the coal from ther ground see if they know about mining up queensland way
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Felix Resources are bound to be affected by events with mining stocks falling 8% to 20% in one day in Europe and America.
The bid should still be alive because the Aussie$ has fallen about 16% against the greenback. A share mix is looking less likely as the bidders shares plummet.
Xstrata are out of the bid situation now as their shares have collapsed 68% from their 2007 high and their bid for Lonmin is probably off now.
It would seem to me quite possible that the terms of a deal have been agreed with just the minor points to be filled by the lawyers.
Why else should Flannery put a 2 week suggested resolution time? If there was no deal at the moment, how could he put any time period on the negotiations possibly being finalised?
There are 2 or more bidders still in the frame, but perhaps the terms with one are ready to be recommended, unless another party is willing to improve on these terms.
We are fortunate that more than one suitor is still in the picture.
Of course there is still time for the international meltdown to scupper everything, so we are walking a tight-rope.Today's turnover in shares show many opting to take their money off the table now. Understandable. Fortune favours the brave? Sometimes !!
Why else should Flannery put a 2 week suggested resolution time? If there was no deal at the moment, how could he put any time period on the negotiations possibly being finalised?
There are 2 or more bidders still in the frame, but perhaps the terms with one are ready to be recommended, unless another party is willing to improve on these terms.
We are fortunate that more than one suitor is still in the picture.
Of course there is still time for the international meltdown to scupper everything, so we are walking a tight-rope.Today's turnover in shares show many opting to take their money off the table now. Understandable. Fortune favours the brave? Sometimes !!
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Strange that, similar to that which I just posted on another website. All great minds think alike.
The tanking of the Aussie dollar against the greenback, by 17% or so, should bring in the bids.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Yep the suspense of a bid is so
,Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 51.8 208.0 265.4 362.3
DPS 53.0 111.0 118.9 158.5
But yeah the price will be interesting. If you see howmuch they paid for NHC and LNC assets recently, it can be alot of cash
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Yep the suspense of a bid is so
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 51.8 208.0 265.4 362.3
DPS 53.0 111.0 118.9 158.5
But yeah the price will be interesting. If you see howmuch they paid for NHC and LNC assets recently, it can be alot of cash
The price will be interesting as Xstrata have just announced they can't raise the AU$12 billion required to takeover Lonmin. Lonmin shares have dived.
Even the BHP bid for Rio is thought in danger of being dropped despite the Aussie approval.
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Do you think Peabody Coal is a likely predator as they have taken over Excel Coal in the past?
thx
MS
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I did hear that Peabody were back interested in Felix after the 20% drop in the Aussie$ against the Greenback. The Peabody share price is down 50%.
It seems that Vale are a good deal less interested, and that leaves BHP and Rio the only others.
Some think that the BHP shares and cash offer, supposedly leaked, may not be worth that much with the BHP stock price falling to a low yesterday. Some say, though not verified, that BHP's offer, on the table, is one share in BHP plus $12 in cash for two shares in Felix.
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as it has done ever since I bought into this wonderful piece of crap... dooooooooooooooooooown 15% today... mutherf^&*er... this stock has obliterated my portfolio... 6 months salary gone just on this pig in 3 weeks... ouch ouch ouch...
