ELE - Elmore Ltd

[tech/a]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Love it.

Buy the rumor sell the fact.
Stopped out with small profit.
Held for a while--a while to long it seems.

 

[Synergy]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Interesting to watch how it goes through the day, Relatively small volume traded on open, I was quite surprised by that and by the low open. I was expecting to see 10 -20 million traded on open, but very subdued. Holding patiently for now.

 

[nioka]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Love it.

Buy the rumor sell the fact.
Stopped out with small profit.
Held for a while--a while to long it seems.

I hope that it is the selling caused by the stops has caused a lot of the fall and that the Sp will rise. I previously have said that the opening would be between 4c and 10c nd I did expect it to be nearer 10c than 4c. I had a sell in at 10c and a buy at 4c, missed out on both.

Tech, has your bottom drawer got a hole in it? Mine are now consigned to my bottom drawer.

 

[tech/a]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Interesting to watch how it goes through the day, Relatively small volume traded on open, I was quite surprised by that and by the low open. I was expecting to see 10 -20 million traded on open, but very subdued. Holding patiently for now.

Yes grabbed a slightly larger position just above my stop out price.
I'll have a sit for a while.Stop.069

 

[tech/a]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Yes grabbed a slightly larger position just above my stop out price.
I'll have a sit for a while.Stop.069

OK I give up for a while! Testing both ends Ive contributed enough.
------------------------------------------------

 

[Sean K]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

OK I give up for a while! Testing both ends Ive contributed enough.
------------------------------------------------

Bad luck Tech, there was some really keen sellers there. The sell the fact pressure was too great. This was good value at about 2c, but was carried to far by the taxi drivers over in la la land.

 

[Synergy]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

You back in yet Tech?

If it can clear 7.2 we might get some momentum.

I'm still really surprised by this whole thing. I really didn't expect to see a narrow trading range like this.

All a bit of a learning experience really.

 

[tech/a]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

You back in yet Tech?

If it can clear 7.2 we might get some momentum.

I'm still really surprised by this whole thing. I really didn't expect to see a narrow trading range like this.

All a bit of a learning experience really.

No

I'm looking at 15 min VSA at the moment.
Supply was massive initially.
Any rally has been on very lowish volume.
Looks very weak in that there is no demand.
Its not clear that there is an exhaustion in supply yet.

One I will be steering clear of until and if it becomes readable and not a punt!

Look to see how both ends of the high and low are tested.

 

[TheAbyss]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

My thoughts are that NSL have created an artificial line in the sand via the 4:1 share rationalisation and the capital raising of $25m at a minimum of 20 cents a share minimum. Most capital raisings tend to see the sp trend towards the cap raising price per share so i am thinking that 5 cents per share is where it is headed in the short term.

Longer term the announcements indicate that they are pretty serious and just might be able to put something together of value.

 

[Spec-Invest]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

that sounds about right. its hit .051 not to long ago down a whopping 48.5%. it will be interesting to see what it does in the next few weeks

 

[tech/a]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Just out of a full afternoon meeting.

That was/is ugly!!!
-----------------------------------------

 

[LRG]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Any ans to my previous post about the 4:1?

Do you think it will spike to 30 cents on monday before the profit takers come in?

I wonder if it will open at 5 cents due to the 4:1?

please enlighten me with your tech thoughts if possible.

I have the answer now - its bloody 5 cents!! not 20 - 30 cents!!!

un believable, we who hold have lost half our SP in 1 day.

 

[nioka]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

The market isn't always rational. there are other factors that come into play. This one is in India, I assume others are in Australia. Costs of production, freight, governments are different with national aspects to be considered. Lots of unknowns to be considered. In hindsight it would have been nice to take the 10.5c before trading ceased. Next week is a new ball game and the price on opening could be anywhere from 4c to 10c. It must be a buy at 4c and a sell at 10c but that's a guess so let's wait before becoming a lemming.

That was Friday. Today came the moment of truth.

I said on Friday that the price would be somewhere between 4c and 10c. There was no reason for it to be as low as 4c remembering that, after a 4 to 1 consolidation the new capital raising is planned to be a minimum of 20c share. That valued NSL today at a minimum of 5c. Therefore the closing is at the minimum reasonable price. There are not all that many shares available for trading shown by the fact that only around 45million were traded. Assuming that the iron ore is there to be mined and assuming that the new issue could be offered to existing holders at that time, possibly on a prorata basis and assuming they will also be issued at a premium (remember there will only be $25m raised) then the SP will range between 5c and 10c pre consolidation.

This should mean that the SP has fallen to the lowest point that it should do at this stage. Therefore there is no reason to sell and every reason to buy.

That's how I see the situation but then I'm often wrong. I was wrong about YML when I sold, I'm not doing too good with CFE and I hold. Surely I can get one out of three iron ore stocks right. I'm holding NSL 'till 10c is reached or 40c after consolidation.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Just out of a full afternoon meeting.

That was/is ugly!!!
-----------------------------------------

Hi tech, did u own any NSL prior to today?

thanks

MS

NSL Health Limited (NSL) is a biotechnology company that focuses on the distribution of dental and medical imaging products and services in the Asia-Pacific region through Denx Medical Software Systems, a wholly owned subsidiary. As of 2008, NSL further engages its business in mineral exploration with Austind Iron Ore Pty Ltd in Indian Iron Ore Project.

 

[tech/a]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Yes.
Micheal I had been in and out a few times.
Most reciently I had a parcel at 7.2 and another at 8.5.
Those were the ones with the 9.5c stop.
Went in again quickly on a possible bounce.
No demand and got rightfully caned!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Ok so to tackle each point of uncertainty one by one


Capital Structure
Shares fully diluted post consolidation 100m
Merger consideration 400m

Capital raising $25m at 25c = 100m
(Based on minimum price of 20c, current implied SP of 40c and very very tough mkt conditions)

Performance Shares = 400m
It should be noted that Performance shares Class B requires the validation of a $350m NPV = 35c a share value and Class C requires Production to commence = a large mkt cap too

Total Shares = 1 Billion






Deposit/Project Size
The company says an exploration target over 500Mt's-770Mt's@ 25% - 35% Fe

The average of this is 635Mt's@30%Fe

But then the company also says the exploration UPSIDE target for the project is 1.2Billion Metic tonnes ?????

So I will use 2 deposit sizes

600Mt's@30%fe
1.2Billion Tonnes@30% Fe







Value?
The EV is going to be hard to come to but given that it can vary from as low as 20c to ealry stage low confidence projects to $2/t Magnetite for some takeover deals,



I feel comfortable using 25c for an infered JORC/Historical target but will also use 50c to show the value of a firmer JORC and $1 to show the value of a takeover


600Mt's@ 30%Fe = 180Mt's Mag @ 25c = $47.5m = 4.75c using 1 Billion Shares

1.2 Billion t's@ 30%Fe = 360Mt's Mag @ 25c = $95m = 9c using 1 Billion Shares


600Mt's@ 30%Fe = 180Mt's Mag @ 50c = $95m = 9.5c using 1 Billion Shares

1.2 Billion t's@ 30%Fe = 360Mt's Mag @ 50c = $190m = 19c using 1 Billion Shares


600Mt's@ 30%Fe = 180Mt's Mag @ $1 = $180m = 18c using 1 Billion Shares

1.2 Billion t's@ 30%Fe = 360Mt's Mag @ $1 = $360m = 36c using 1 Billion Shares


So we get a range of values of

Intial target @ 25c EV/t = 4.75c
Intial target @ 50c EV/t = 9c
Intial target @ $1 EV/t = 18c

Upside target @ 25c EV/t = 9c
Upside target @ 50c EV/t = 19c
Upside target @ $1 EV/t = 36c


Conclusions and comments
Well as I said all along, I loved NSL at 1.5c-2.5c, do I still love it at 10c? Not really, would I buy? No, BUT THEN THATS BECAUSE THIS ISN'T MY STYLE of investment, ie I WOULD NOT HAVE BOUGHT SDL WHEN IT WAS 10c, ITS NOW 25C so I hope you see just because I am not prepared to buy somehting doesn't mean there is no further value, with SDL there was between 250% to 400% further value

I have done my best to show a range of potential valuations for NSL, it should be remembered I am no expert and I am not offering any advice, rather just trying to help others make heads or tails of the whole thing, I hope my effort is appreciated

Good luck guys and remember REGARDLESS THE MKT IS THE ULTIMATE JUDGE

Interesting how this got to around 5c which is the figure I got based on 25c/t Mag EV for the mid range 600Mt historical figure which was my most comfortable range



These are very difficult mkts at the moment

 

[nioka]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Interesting how this got to around 5c which is the figure I got based on 25c/t Mag EV for the mid range 600Mt historical figure which was my most comfortable range



These are very difficult mkts at the moment

YT. You reach that figure based on 1 billion shares. If you work on the lower share valuation then there will not be 1 billion shares because the performance shares will not be issued. If that is the case then you should ignore the lower value.

Ignoring the 4.75c initial target and the 9c upside target and ignoring the performance shares and using your other calculations I still see a value around my 10c mark. I feel it is safe to ignore the performance shares at this stage because for them to be issued the company will have performed well beyond the 5c value.

????????????

 

[Largesse]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

is a downramper a downramper even when he is correct?

Been away in the Hunter since Sunday, so i missed all the excitement. My thoughts go out to anyone who bought into that massive ramp in the last 2 days of trading.

LOL @ Kakoii over on HC, the poor bugger had his life hanging on NSL going gangbusters....

 

[sam76]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Hey Largesse,

I thought you were the guy that originally said NSL were chasing 1.4 billion tonnes those many months ago on HC?

In my opinion that was the original ramp that started everything off.






Largess
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Also, for those that are interested,

1. Issue is no longer of how much IO there is in the ground, its an issue of the JV and getting it signed. From what i have heard it would seem that AustInd are playing "funny buggers"
2. its not 300MT.... try 1.4BT

 

[Drubula]

Re: NSL - NSL Health

Come to think of it Sam, I too recall that quote by Largess(E) on HC. Good to see a postive annoucement by NSL today and at least bring some confidence back into this stock.

Time will tell how the market will respond.