FEX - Fenix Resources

[Sean K]

Iron is as cold as ice right now but FEX looks good at 28 cents.

I agree. On your numbers this is cheap as chips and the current SP is probably factoring in a lot more downside to the POI. Sitting on some nice support across 27c. Tail off in volume looks ok, will only need a few up days in IO to bounce sharply I reckon.

 

[frugal.rock]

About this time next week, the dividend announcement should be out.
Back of the beer coaster calcs have it at 5 to 8 cent range, depending on what % they go with from recent (maiden) dividend policy announcement.
Held.

 

[Telamelo]

Iron is as cold as ice right now but FEX looks good at 28 cents.

~ 1.25mta operation.
Market Cap: 130 million
No significant debt
Cash on hand: 70 million
50% of production next year hedged at $280/tonne
Producing high grade iron (64%) - not that low grade junk.

So - based on some quick back of the envelope analysis - Even if Iron goes to zero dollars - they could pull in $175M revenue - and probably have $135M in costs (say $100/tonne + some capex) leading to a $40 M positive cashflow this time next year... the EV right now at 28 cents is $60 million.

I like the board - looks like all Iron ore people... so they should know what they are doing.

Slight correction mate.. FEX have hedged 45% of their production commencing from 1st October 2021 through till October 2022.

Think they are due to report annual results & maiden dividend etc. in a week from now or thereabouts.

 

[frugal.rock]

This dividend represents 18.1% of the closing share price yesterday. Noice.
Fully franked

 

[Sean K]

This dividend represents 18.1% of the closing share price yesterday. Noice.

That's nuts. Do you reckon the sp drops 5c on the record or distribution date?

 

[frugal.rock]

That's nuts. Do you reckon the sp drops 5c on the record or distribution date?

Any drop or rise of SP is speculation,...? however divvy scalpers normally sell the trading day before the record date.
That way they get the divvy.

I won't be surprised to see the share price rise today...?

 

[Telamelo]

That's nuts. Do you reckon the sp drops 5c on the record or distribution date?

Lovely surprise this morning waking up to FEX trading at only @ 29c coming out declaring a fully franked 5.25c dividend !!!

Yes you read & heard that right 5.25c fully franked dividend is insane as super impressive indeed

Well done to FEX management !!!

P.S. Usually on ex-dividend date or soon after share price expected to retrace/fall around 3c-5c range or thereabouts as see this happen on other stocks

 

[Telamelo]

to claim FEX dividend just register at:

https://investor.automic.com.au

as straight forward to do/complete etc.

 

[Telamelo]

FEX @ 0.32c +10.34% still "cheap as chips" on big volume/momentum turnover.. noting goes ex-dividend next Monday 20th September.

P.S. Allowing for franking credits at tax time gives 20%+ overall yield

 

[Telamelo]

FEX gone ex-dividend today.. huge "open gap" left up @ 0.295c from last Friday that sooner or later needs to get closed (gaps usually always close) imo dyor

 

[Sean K]

FEX gone ex-dividend today.. huge "open gap" left up @ 0.295c from last Friday that sooner or later needs to get closed (gaps usually always close) imo dyor

In the hands of the IO price panic in the short term.

 

[frugal.rock]

scalpers normally sell the trading day before the record date.

Today is the trading day before record date...
Double whammy

 

[Telamelo]

FEX nice bounce @ 0.235c +11.9% noting huge 'open gap' to 0.295c after going ex-dividend on 20/09

Their 45% iron ore hedging @ $230/tonne commences October '21 with one of the big 5 banks (guessing it's Macquarie rumour has it)

 

[Telamelo]

Macquarie is bullish on all local iron ore producers it covers, with “outperform” ratings.

The broker says its optimism is based on predictions the iron ore price will rebound in 2022.

“Despite the recent drop in iron ore prices, we note port iron ore prices (which are at $US20 a tonne premium to index prices) remained resilient,”

Buying opportunities await in iron ore

The heavy decline in prices doesn’t mean the run is over, with a window likely for increasing exposure at the right price.

www.afr.com

 

[Telamelo]

Macquarie is bullish on all local iron ore producers it covers, with “outperform” ratings.

The broker says its optimism is based on predictions the iron ore price will rebound in 2022.

“Despite the recent drop in iron ore prices, we note port iron ore prices (which are at $US20 a tonne premium to index prices) remained resilient,”

Buying opportunities await in iron ore

The heavy decline in prices doesn’t mean the run is over, with a window likely for increasing exposure at the right price.

www.afr.com

FEX 45% iron ore hedging at $230/tonne has officially kicked in as of October '21 through till end of September '22 (thankfully should keep FEX in business/cash flow positive imo)

 

[Telamelo]

FEX ticking up nicely @ 0.235c +4.44% and with patience am still eyeing that "open gap" to 0.295c

 

[Telamelo]

FEX ticking up nicely @ 0.235c +4.44% and with patience am still eyeing that "open gap" to 0.295c

Iron Ore shot up about +10% overnight should fuel FEX share price to crack 0.24c+ imo dyor

 

[The Triangle]

Cashflow this quarter pretty well covered the dividend.

 

[Telamelo]

Cashflow this quarter pretty well covered the dividend.

Very good Quarterly released by FEX as now trading @ 0.26c +10.64%

 

[Telamelo]

https://www. afr .com/companies/mining/bhp-iron-ore-output-slumps-20211018-p59120

Further news confirming the "big boys" aren’t increasing iron ore supply any time soon.

Reckon that iron ore prices likely to rebound strongly next year after the Winter Olympics in February '22 imo