SGL - Sydney Gas

[laurie]

Hope Directors of Sydney Gas are looking at their screens right now watching AOE & QGC moing towards blue sky especially QGC @$5.22 they should be shot that's why I sold out when the T/O failed and got more QGC shares at that time I did the opposite what directors told us to do and I'm glad I did

cheers laurie

 

[Aussiejeff]

Hope Directors of Sydney Gas are looking at their screens right now watching AOE & QGC moing towards blue sky especially QGC @$5.22 they should be shot that's why I sold out when the T/O failed and got more QGC shares at that time I did the opposite what directors told us to do and I'm glad I did

cheers laurie

Hi laurie. A V.Good move by you in retrospect! I often think the directors of SGL (certainly past ones and some recent ones too) don't even bother to look at their screens! If they did, they might shoot themselves rather than have someone else do it for them!

You only have to read their sub-standard, amateurish quarterly reports (where's the professional looking, detailed production graphs etc, or even a "modern" format, that QGC, AOE and most of the others can offer?). Surely they can employ someone who can spiff-up the reports for a start! Not only that, but the reports are only quarterly at best of late. They should be informing shareholders at least once a month!

At least the new CEO Andy Lukas seems to be trying harder to win over the local Hunter community. Hopefully with some success.

Cheers,

AJ

 

[Col Lector]

Giday AJ, Laurie.... Some nice momentum lately...
Chart attached showing the dramatic turnabout from late April
quite a stark breakout to current 39c.
Has been an ugly duckling but IMO we are seeing a transformation in sentiment though still largely under the radar...
Positive sp response appears closely linked with:
*"solving" of the Chimaera uncertainty (selling depth transformed within a day or two)
*the increased focus on & valuation of coalseam sector.
* Size & strategic position of SCM tenements
*AJL's incentivised involvement & expertise
*NSW dynamics flowing from electricity privatisation.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Giday AJ, Laurie.... Some nice momentum lately...
Chart attached showing the dramatic turnabout from late April
quite a stark breakout to current 39c.
Has been an ugly duckling but IMO we are seeing a transformation in sentiment though still largely under the radar...
Positive sp response appears closely linked with:
*"solving" of the Chimaera uncertainty (selling depth transformed within a day or two)
*the increased focus on & valuation of coalseam sector.
* Size & strategic position of SCM tenements
*AJL's incentivised involvement & expertise
*NSW dynamics flowing from electricity privatisation.

Hi Col Lector.

SP looked like it was going to bolt this morning. Pre-open was slated for 41.5c with quite a few bids over the last close of 39.0c. then just seconds before open - *bang* - a single large wad at 39.0c jumped into the SELL queue and covered those to open flat. Since then there has been the usual tug-of-war between down-sellers and buyers.

I wouldn't be surprised that one of the main sellers over the last month has probably been Chimaera Capital. I wonder how many more shares they have up their sleeve(s) that they intend to sell off?

Anyway, as I see it, in the short-medium term the only way SGL's SP will LEAP forward in any meaningful and long term way (regardless of SP fiddling by Chimaera et all) is:

(a) prove up substantial Hunter region reserves (15c+?)
(b) obtain a full production licence for the Hunter leases (25c+?)
(c) prove up substantial increase in Camden reserves (10c+?)
(d) obtain maximum payment from AGK (abt $AU50m) for sufficient proved up Camden reserves (10c+?)

Given the current SP near 40c, if all those things can come together by the end of December (after which the Camden reserves payment by AGK will be calculated), I reckon there is potential for the SP to have moved to near $1.00+ It's all a bit in the lap of the gods, as well as Andy Lukas lap!

Still, I'm not greedy. LOL. I'd be pretty happy to see 75c given the past 3 years of mis-management!

In the meantime, unless Andy can start better informing investors with more regular production and/or drilling updates, I think the SP will struggle to get to 45c. IMO.

Cheers,

AJ

(I hold SGL)

 

[Aussiejeff]

Sydney Gas (SGL) jumped up 13.25% today to 47c. I noticed this BIG single trade on Commsec:

03:49:45 PM 0.440 10,000,000 4,400,000.00 XTSPOS

According to Commsec's Code help, I presume the code letters mean:

XT = Crossing Trade
SP = Block Special Crossing
OS = Overseas

So, would I be correct in guessing that some overseas entity has been involved in a single trade of 10,000,000 SGL shares (at .44 per share) for the total princely sum of $4,400,000?

Still no major news on the drilling front either.... hopeful.

AJ

(I hold)

 

[Col Lector]

AJ...was watching the SGL games this afternoon. The chart shows the dramatic buying rush 2pm till auction close. Doesnt appear to show the 10 mill buy...though I saw it go through...raised an eyebrow at the time.
IMO QGC's move into NSW will accelerate consolidation of positions. Significantly the proposed QGC pipeline route will travel through SGL's high prospectivity/priority very sizeable Hunter tenements and therefore raises all sorts of scenarios that may play out... tommorrow will be interesting.
Anyone else holding these??

 

[Jonathan111]

http://aussiewealthreview.com/?p=147
Have you noticed that natural gas prices have broken double figures…yet Aussie prices haven’t broken $3.50 for years? Gas futures in New York are trading at $11.44. John Durie of The Australian, reckons Aussie gas wholesales for about $3.

 

[Jonathan111]

I assume that SGLs reserves are very close to the proposed QGC power station.

Do you think that SGL could now be a takeover target again?

 

[kingbrown]

Re: SGL - Sydney Gas Vs Eastern Star Gas

I'd say Eastern Star would be in the firing line 1st up ?
As QGC pipeline proposal appears to run right through their
CSM acreage
QGC has had a go at SGL before and it all makes sense
Either way imo
Some one is going to start swallowing up these smaller CSM stocks
If the proposal gets the green light from the NSW govt prices may go Nth
I know quite a few day traders are looking over the NSW CSM stocks
I'd say we may have a good day ?

 

[Aussiejeff]

SGL finished up a further 3.5c (or +7.9%) at 48c today while AJL had a stellar run - up 95c (or +17.1%) to $6.50 at the close.

Both performing strongly with all this CSM activity gearing up..... can it continue?



AJ
(I hold SGL)

 

[Tysonboss1]

SGL finished up a further 3.5c (or +7.9%) at 48c today while AJL had a stellar run - up 95c (or +17.1%) to $6.50 at the close.

Both performing strongly with all this CSM activity gearing up..... can it continue?



AJ
(I hold SGL)

hi jeff

Is sgl producing yet, if so are they earnings per share positive.

What are their 2p reserves.

 

[Aussiejeff]

hi jeff

Is sgl producing yet, if so are they earnings per share positive.

What are their 2p reserves.

Last Q reported 1320 TJ production (Close to achieving positive operating cashflow).

Reserves (as of 31 Dec 2005 which I think is the latest available?)

1P = 59 Pj
2P = 83 Pj
3P = 109 Pj

I would be really surprised if those reserves didn't increase sharply at the next announcement - due by end December (hopefully sooner).


Cheers,

AJ
(I hold)

 

[Jonathan111]

Last Q reported 1320 TJ production (Close to achieving positive operating cashflow).
I would be really surprised if those reserves didn't increase sharply at the next announcement - due by end December (hopefully sooner).


Cheers,

AJ
(I hold)

If anyone knows whether those reserves are going to increase it would probably be the AJ Lucas Group Limited.

Over the last month AJL have been purchasing more shares in SGL.

 

[sillybilly]

Common sense says the reserves have increased. Reserve estimates are based on core sample analysis and production data.

Sydney gas has more than two years of production data since the last estimates were published. In addition, at least four cores have been drilled in the Camden area.

Two questions:

1) By how much have the reserves increased?

2) When will the data be made public?

For right now, the SGL share price is riding on the back of the booming CSG sector. Surely, it's only a matter of time before the SGL share price begins to rise on its own accord?

 

[sillybilly]

Sorry,

I should have added that I hold SGL. I think my most recent parcell was purchased back in Feb this year at $0.29.

Bill.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Common sense says the reserves have increased. Reserve estimates are based on core sample analysis and production data.

Sydney gas has more than two years of production data since the last estimates were published. In addition, at least four cores have been drilled in the Camden area.

Two questions:

1) By how much have the reserves increased?

2) When will the data be made public?

For right now, the SGL share price is riding on the back of the booming CSG sector. Surely, it's only a matter of time before the SGL share price begins to rise on its own accord?

Hehe. You have asked two $64,000 questions.....

Any long term shareholders would be hoping the l-o-o-o-o-ng wait for a reserves upgrade announcement from SGL will be well worth it! Especially so since just about every other CSG company has announced at least one upgrade (or even more) over the same time frame.

Most of those other companies reporting reserves upgrades have shot ahead in SP as a result (eg: AOE, QGC etc).

Time (as always) will tell - tick...tick....


AJ
(I hold)

 

[sillybilly]

I do not expect any reserves to be booked against the Hunter prospect until mid next year. I base this on:

1) Each core hole takes about six weeks to complete. The current exploration programme calls for at least 10 wells. 10 wells x 6 weeks each = 60 weeks. By now the third well has probably been started.

2) A pilot well programme, yet to be announced, will be required to test flow and pressure. This data will be an input to the reserves model.

3) Based on my observations of the New South Wales CSG sector, the necessary Government approvals could prove to take a long time.

But........

The above scenario allows for only one coring rig in the Hunter Valley. The technical agreement with AJL calls for a minimum of three drilling rigs. At the time the third quarter activities report was issued there was one rig operating in Camden and one rig operating in the Hunter Valley. Clearly, if a second coring rig was deployed to the Hunter Valley the coring exercise would be halved. What if a third rig was added to commence the pilot well programme in paralled with the coring programme?

Camden is a different story. I will be disappointed if a new reserve statement is not released this year.

I think the alliance with AJL will unlock the true value of SGL. I'm confident the market will recognise this during the next twelve months. I also think SGL is not a takeover target...not yet. Based on the SGL news that is in the public arena, a prospective predator might find it hard to justify the premium to get long term shareholders like myself to sell. This time next year might be a different story. On the other hand, a big player might say screw the risk and make an irresistable offer.

Friday's action was very interesting. Lots of end of month trading, no doubt more frenetic than usual because of the big deals being struck in Queensland. Tomorrow will be very interesting.

Good luck to everyone.

Bill.

 

[Aussiejeff]

I do not expect any reserves to be booked against the Hunter prospect until mid next year. I base this on:

1) Each core hole takes about six weeks to complete. The current exploration programme calls for at least 10 wells. 10 wells x 6 weeks each = 60 weeks. By now the third well has probably been started.

2) A pilot well programme, yet to be announced, will be required to test flow and pressure. This data will be an input to the reserves model.

3) Based on my observations of the New South Wales CSG sector, the necessary Government approvals could prove to take a long time.

But........

Bill.

I guees my main concern for the past 12 months is the LACK of regular market updates (eg: monthly updates at least) of where SGL is at with respect to drilling/production rates. Other companies seem willing to promote their "achievements" in that regard through REGULAR market announcements and updates. No such luck from SGL.

E-mails by myself to management (including the new CEO) over the past months querying this apparent "neglect" of market awareness have not yet resulted in any increase in updates. Nor has there been a market announcement regarding the proposed drilling service agreement (originally announced to be signed in March?).

I find this situation rather puzzling, as good companies generally want to promote themselves as much as possible - but SGL is VERY quiet of late. I can only put it down to the following factors:

(a) Management are becoming aware as the core results come in over time that the expected reserves increase is going to be substantially larger than expected, making SGL a target for rapid predatory takeover, hence better to "keep it under wraps" till the last minute.

(b) Management are becoming aware as the core results come in over time that the expected reserves increase is going to be substantially smaller than expected, making SGL a target for heavy selling pressure in the interim, hence better to "keep it under wraps" till the last minute.

(c) Management haven't got a clue how to promote the company to the public and shareholders in general via market announcements, media presentations etc.

With AJL buying more SGL shares over the last few months, it would seem that (b) is not likely to eventuate, leaving (a) as the hoped-for outcome. So, perhaps (a) IS what is keeping them quiet - for now. I'll believe it when I see it.

Most of all though, I really, really hope that factor (c) has NO part to play either now or in SGL's future - that pitiful factor has certainly been evident in the near past! The suspense and secrecy over the reserves situation for the last 2 years or so has been a total drag.... may it end SOON! (at least for Camden if not Hunter)



AJ
(I hold)

 

[Col Lector]

AJ, I like a. And conspiracy theories.
Today looks like it could be an exciting ride. Buyers stacking up.

 

[Aussiejeff]

AJ, I like a. And conspiracy theories.
Today looks like it could be an exciting ride. Buyers stacking up.

AJL looking very thin on the sell side too.... good luck today to AJL holders (I don't hold..).

Makes you wonder what sort of interest SGL might generate if and when the BIG announcements come. SP has now climbed almost 100% in last couple of months with no major upgrade announcements - only "proposals"?


Cheers,

AJ
(holding)