Petrol $2.50 in 2009?

[springhill]

I was talking to a relative today who works in the State Govt Dept of Energy, apparently this fuel pain is only the tip of the iceberg. They are expecting the price of petrol to be $2.50 next year. If and i stress IF this is true imagine the ramifications on day to day living and what consequences this would have for the national/international economies. Will be interesting to look back in a year and see if this situation is indeed true.... should make for interesting discussion

 

[Smurf1976]

What is being largely missed is that the world now faces a physical constraint on total oil consumption. That is, price keeps rising until we cap and then reduce (permanently) consumption.

It's starting now. Note that Qantas is pulling out of some routes - that's the canary in the mine as far as I'm concerned. Just wait until prices rise some more - ultimately it won't be just cancelling Hobart - Brisbane route etc but most of their (and every other airline's) services likely won't be viable. Melbourne to Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart maybe, but not Sydney direct to Perth and not Melbourne direct to Brisbane. Fly it full, completely full, of high paying customers or it stays on the ground. That's the future IMO.

And if the airlines don't cancel services then that will only be because cars, trucks or buses are sitting idle instead. We just don't have the physical supply, at any price, to carry on business as usual. Unless, that is, we do it at the expense of some other country - the Third World goes to hell etc (already been happening for quite a while now by the way, trouble is what happens when there are no more poor countries left to price out of the market?).

If you want to travel long distance, and in that context a Gold Coast holiday when you live in Melbourne is long distance, then do it now or be prepared to spend a fortune and do lots of plane hopping to get there. Or catch the train.

 

[wayneL]

We do waste it though don't we.

In 20 years we'll look back and marvel at how bloody silly we were.

 

[Aussiejeff]

What is being largely missed is that the world now faces a physical constraint on total oil consumption. That is, price keeps rising until we cap and then reduce (permanently) consumption.

Oil has *plummeted* overnight approx. $4.00 back to around US$126. The usual dailly "bubble and squeak".....

It's starting now. Note that Qantas is pulling out of some routes - that's the canary in the mine as far as I'm concerned.

Re: Said overnight plummet of crude oil price - QANTAS can now afford to feed the canaries a few handfuls of birdseed.....

If you want to travel long distance, and in that context a Gold Coast holiday when you live in Melbourne is long distance, then do it now or be prepared to spend a fortune and do lots of plane hopping to get there. Or catch the train.

Apparently the Hume & Hovell walking track offers lots of spectacular scenery through the alps and some bonus fitness benefits. LOL

Ahhh, ya gotta love those crude daily fluctuations. Great for those $Trillion fundies that can squeeze a few $Million out of every drop up or down the sliding scale....

AJ

 

[Aussiejeff]

We do waste it though don't we.

In 20 years we'll look back and marvel at how bloody silly we were.

*20* years?

You mean I'm gonna live that long???

 

[nizar]

I was talking to a relative today who works in the State Govt Dept of Energy, apparently this fuel pain is only the tip of the iceberg. They are expecting the price of petrol to be $2.50 next year. If and i stress IF this is true imagine the ramifications on day to day living and what consequences this would have for the national/international economies. Will be interesting to look back in a year and see if this situation is indeed true.... should make for interesting discussion

I wonder what their track record is like when it comes to this type of "prediction"?
If its anything like that national body of hours, ABARE, then Hmmm...
These guys are lucky they dont trade on their predictions....lol...

 

[jonojpsg]

What I find interesting is that there is all this political hooha about the price of petrol when in reality, the Federal government have no control over the price of petrol apart from a measly few cents here and there with excise and GST.

When we are looking at prices of $2+ a litre, I would have thought the general public would understand that and that politicians would focus on something more constructive like converting Australias fleet over to natural gas of which we have plenty

 

[Ageo]

So if everyones prediction is petrol will go up in the future (which im sure it will also) then how many people have a long position in oil atm?

 

[springhill]

What I find interesting is that there is all this political hooha about the price of petrol when in reality, the Federal government have no control over the price of petrol apart from a measly few cents here and there with excise and GST.

When we are looking at prices of $2+ a litre, I would have thought the general public would understand that and that politicians would focus on something more constructive like converting Australias fleet over to natural gas of which we have plenty

Dont quote me on this but i believe the Federal Govts take on each litre of fuel we buy is in the realm of 50 cents per litre that gives them alot more play than a few cents IMO, not to mention having a GST component on an excise.... a tax on a tax. Criminals!

 

[xyzedarteerf]

So if everyones prediction is petrol will go up in the future (which im sure it will also) then how many people have a long position in oil atm?

after advising a family member to buy some oil towards the end of last year, i failed to act myself and still don't hold any oil at the moment.

 

[xyzedarteerf]

with the inevitable shortage of oil , i say bring back the old horse and carriage for short trips, no pollution there, except manure which can be used as fertilizer.

 

[nioka]

with the inevitable shortage of oil , i say bring back the old horse and carriage for short trips, no pollution there, except manure which can be used as fertilizer.

Not out of the question. When I was 10 years old I used to do a milk run with a horse and cart. I could do it faster than the boss could with a ute. The horse got used to the run and would move to the next house without me while the ute needed to be driven by the milkman from house to house. And as to the fertiliser, home gardeners would rush out to get any left by the horse. That was during the war when blackmarket petrol cost a lot more than $2.50 in todays money.

 

[wayneL]

You'll all be needing a qualified farrier, and there will be an acute shortage of us.

For the right money, I'm quite willing to come out of retirement.

 

[Aussiejeff]

You'll all be needing a qualified farrier, and there will be an acute shortage of us.

For the right money, I'm quite willing to come out of retirement.

You mis-spelt "furrier".





AJ

 

[nioka]

You'll all be needing a qualified farrier, and there will be an acute shortage of us.

For the right money, I'm quite willing to come out of retirement.

Wish I had found that horse first !!!!!!!

 

[wildkactus]

A positive with fuel at $2.50 will be lower city congestion a peak hour, as there will be less motorists.

On the other hand, could this be the ture price for this commodity?

 

[Smurf1976]

What I find interesting is that there is all this political hooha about the price of petrol when in reality, the Federal government have no control over the price of petrol apart from a measly few cents here and there with excise and GST.

I'm even more confused. Australians wanted, according to various opinion polls, to cut greenhouse gas emissions. That went as far as signing the Kyoto Protocol.

Now, pardon my blatant use of logic here, but if people want emissions cut then they won't be too worried about the price of petrol. I mean, it's not as if they'd be expecting to keep using much of it, so why worry about the price?

Oh, I get it... Talk, talk and more talk but when it comes to actually doing something and people start to realise the cost they suddenly change their mind. Thought so...

 

[bassmanpete]

a tax on a tax. Criminals!

But if you make the laws you can't be a criminal

The current price in the UK is around the equivalent of $2.34. We still have pretty cheap petrol but people do love to complain.

 

[lusk]

But if you make the laws you can't be a criminal

The current price in the UK is around the equivalent of $2.34. We still have pretty cheap petrol but people do love to complain.

Why not complain who wants to pay more for anything? Every person l know that has no issue with rising fuel costs has a company car.

 

[drasicjazz]

But if you make the laws you can't be a criminal

The current price in the UK is around the equivalent of $2.34. We still have pretty cheap petrol but people do love to complain.

i was just about to say that; bassmanpete
my parents still live in belgium and are (happy) to pay equivalent 2.5 AUD

although if i speak to theim on the phone, it is an excelent topic to keep the conversation short.

i ve heard even that the neighbour is not swithing on any lights at night
just so he would be able to afford to go to work the next day...