ADY - Admiralty Resources

[rub92me]

Just the iron ore so far: (60% owned)
Japonesa - 41 million tonnes @ 13.87% + 6.4 million inferred @ 16.52%
Japonesita- 21.9 million tonnes @ 19.7% (indicated) + 20.7 million inferred % 24.7%
Mariposa- drilling away, looks like a higher grade resource.

Lithium & Potash resource is off the scale (about a 400 year mine life)
Lithium 911 thousand tonnes proven + 500 thousand indicated
Pothash 33 million tonnes proven + 17 million indicated

 

[nikki]

why the trading halt i wonder. i have to admit that ady's last trading halt seemed a little unnecessary. i.e. did they need a trading halt to annouce their increasing share of the project? i wonder if this one is going to be similar.

i suspect it might have something to do with raising capital for their projects???

 

[happytown]

why the trading halt i wonder.

from p 2,

We are discussing with various parties iron ore sales contracts and agency relationships.

i have to admit that ady's last trading halt seemed a little unnecessary. i.e. did they need a trading halt to annouce their increasing share of the project?

from asx website,

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/trading_halts.htm

...

ASX may temporarily place a trading halt on a security following a company announcement.

...

cheers

 

[nikki]

hmmmmmm, had not read p.2. of the annoucement. sounds like a very positive annoucement is comming our way. thanks for bringing it to my attention.

 

[timelord]

hmmmmmm, had not read p.2. of the annoucement. sounds like a very positive annoucement is comming our way. thanks for bringing it to my attention.

Timing is everything. I was putting in a sell when the halt came through. Hopefully it will be positive news. Most of the shares I have held of late that has a trading halt, sinks after the news. This sounds positive.

 

[redandgreen]

having read todays ann....... ADY would have to be a MUST for any

portfolio in the next 3 months imho

Anyone care to disagree???

 

[michael_selway]

Just the iron ore so far: (60% owned)
Japonesa - 41 million tonnes @ 13.87% + 6.4 million inferred @ 16.52%
Japonesita- 21.9 million tonnes @ 19.7% (indicated) + 20.7 million inferred % 24.7%
Mariposa- drilling away, looks like a higher grade resource.

Lithium & Potash resource is off the scale (about a 400 year mine life)
Lithium 911 thousand tonnes proven + 500 thousand indicated
Pothash 33 million tonnes proven + 17 million indicated

Do you know when they plan production and sales?

Also you mention "resource is off the scale", so potentially it could be avery huge resource, but atm not proven as yet?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 -- -- --
EPS -1.4 -- -- --
DPS 0.0 -- -- --

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Ady is already selling some iron ore but major contract expected by end of October. First batch of Lithium should be due Sept.08 with contracts expected by Mar.08 with an initial pre-sales contract due any time before then. Very huge Li resource is already proven. rub92me included that info. Please check anns.

 

[Techbuy]

ADY (Iron ore) is ready to sign contracts with a SP of $0.495 today and FMG (Fortescue - also Iron Ore) is at $48.50.

FMG is developing The Pilbara Iron Ore and Infrastructure Project and will commence shipping ore from Port Hedland in the first quarter of 2008.

While ADY is behind in shipping it is still well on track to ship massive amounts of ore. This is the ann today from ADY.

++++++++++++++++
Admiralty Resources, on behalf of its 60%-owned Cia Minera Santa Barbara joint
venture, has commenced discussions with various parties on sales of magnetite
iron ore for the period 2008 -2011
• Admiralty expects to enter a Heads of Agreement for supply of iron ore from
2010/11 to 2018 to be shipped from its proposed Punta Alcalde Capesize port
conditional on the ports’ completion date
• The iron ore contract discussions include a new 2007 benchmark price, funding
options and a change to free-on-board delivery basis
+++++++++++++++++

They are also diversified into other resources, this is from the same ann.

+++++++++++++++++
The Company is involved in four main projects:
• The Rincon Salar, Argentina, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, and potash project;
• The Cia Minera Santa Barbara, Chile, iron ore joint venture, through its 60% interest therein;
• The Pyke Hill, Australia, nickel and cobalt joint venture, through its 50% interest therein; and
• The Bulman, Australia, zinc and lead project.
++++++++++++++++++

Would appreciate some feedback on this as the SP gap beween the ADY and FMG is SOOOOO big and yet they seem to be on the same track.

Is FMG overpriced?
Is it because they are in Australia and ADY is in South America?
will ADY hit the same levels as FMG when they start shipping?
Cheers

 

[nikki]

did anyone else notice the incredible manipulation in the share price today!! i was amazed at how it broke 0.5.

fmg plans to ship 200 mgt per year if i am correct. ady does not even get a mention in the iron ore world in terms of volume. have a look at the recent presentations (should be on the asx web page for today) by sdl and gbg about their merger and how they fit into the australian iron ore family.

ady's purity levels are pretty poor if i am correct in my reading. lastly, iron ore from south america costs a lot more to ship than the australian one's.

i have to admit, i am intrigued at it low capitalization given its potential and proven resources.

 

[danc]

Share price manipulation??? How do you mean?? Their iron ore is not much good??? Someone is buying it like someone is buying the shares. You sound like you think there is some sort of trick going on. Maybe you can see something I cant. Could you please explain. I have a heap and was going to buy another half a heap tomorrow. Maybe I shouldnt.

 

[countryboy]

ADY send their ore through the mill twice to lift the "poor" % to around 55% to 60 %. Yep its not a great grade but what they do after that makes up for it. Compare ady with a host of Australian IO hopefuls and I think you will find its present price very attractive. I find the current price of FMG to be unbelievable - will want to be a great dividend to buy in at that price....when they finally start making a profit.

 

[nikki]

that's interesting about the way they work with the impurities in the ore.

re the price manipulation, i noticed buyers piling at 0.49, 0.495 and 0.5 at around 3 to 4 million which i have not seen before.

they were basically saying why sell when there are so many ready to buy at 0.49 and 0.495.

as soon as the price got to 0.505 and 5.1 they all dissapeared without the volume being reflected in the total sales volume except that the price retraced back to .495. i was not looking for a short while during all this which happened around 3.40 - 3.55pm yesterday.

i.e. i think what happened was someone pushed the price from 0.47 upwards to 0.51 and sold massive lots with a huge profit.

i have no problems with that because it means that today the stock might open above .5 and move towards .6. i nearly bought some at .51 because i saw the huge number of buyers @ 0.49 and 0.495.

i think this is a great stock and would be happy paying whatever market is today but given its fall from grace once it got to 0.67 i have been wondering if this stock gets manipulated badly because of the high volumes that traded.

 

[tech/a]

Trading this myself and watched on my own live screen.
Didnt see anything unusual.High volume buyers who pulled their bids prior to close.

 

[Lachlan6]

If only it could become another FMG : Definently looking very good at the moment from a technical side anyway. This week has broken through key resistance with huge volume. Notice the recent correction in price was not supported by a fall in OBV. A very good sign that investors were picking this up at the cheaper price. Much higher levels beckon in my opinion.

 

[tech/a]

This may explain some of the price action in ADY.
I expect a follow through on ADY. This 100 charater rule is annoying.
When a chart shows a 1000 words.

 

[Sean K]

This 100 charater rule is annoying.
When a chart shows a 1000 words.

I agree tech, but it can't be made possible. Was suggested in the policy dev, but the program won't play the game.

 

[happytown]

...

ady's purity levels are pretty poor if i am correct in my reading

...

countryboy is correct in that they mill the ore to improve the 'purity', however the delivered 'purity' has exceeded 60% on all their shipments thus far,

from the June 2007 Quarterly Report released 30/07/07, p2:

We completed four shipments in the June quarter shipping approximately 157,000 tonnes of iron ore and Cia Minera Santa Barbara (CMSB) received more than US$11million in revenue. CMSB received an Fe bonus for every shipment, exceeding our contract guarantee of 63.5% by more than 1% in some cases. Wuhan has expressed their delight at the quality of the iron ore and are considering it for other iron ore applications. They are sympathetic to the issues associated with the start up of the Santa Barbara plant, and will renegotiate the delivery schedule for the balance of the contract past 30 September 2007.

cheers

 

[rub92me]

ADY (Iron ore) is ready to sign contracts with a SP of $0.495 today and FMG (Fortescue - also Iron Ore) is at $48.50.

Would appreciate some feedback on this as the SP gap beween the ADY and FMG is SOOOOO big and yet they seem to be on the same track.

Is FMG overpriced?
Is it because they are in Australia and ADY is in South America?
will ADY hit the same levels as FMG when they start shipping?
Cheers

You can't really compare the 2 in my opinion.
FMG market cap is more than 25x ADY. They are planning to ship 15-20 times more iron ore than ADY in the next 5 years.
Iron ore is only the 'means to an end' for ADY. The Lithium/Potash play has far better cost/revenue economics and will overtake the iron ore profit very quickly if all goes to plan.

 

[tech/a]

ADY is currently showing no demand.
Swamping by strong selling gives me no confidence in the short term.
I'm out at 49c