ADI - Adelphi Energy

[chops_a_must]

Everyone is entitled too their own opinion ADI going down well anything is posible but if you read all the reports,dyor, and feed of others well educated analysis you should be positive on ADI with a certain ammount of control as nothing is set in concrete YET !

I see no resource, just plenty of hopes.

There are so many undervalued oilers out there (NWE) probably being the main one, along with WGP and CVN that actually HAVE PROVEN or probable RESERVES. Which all makes me wonder why on earth you would put your hard earned into this stock. The chalks may/ my not be commercial blah blah. I keep hearing, "read between the lines" etc etc. but until the bit between the lines says what they actually have, then people really have to take a reality check on this one in comparison to other opportunities out there.

Totally agree with you itchy.

 

[Lucky_Country]

I see no resource, just plenty of hopes.

There are so many undervalued oilers out there (NWE) probably being the main one, along with WGP and CVN that actually HAVE PROVEN or probable RESERVES. Which all makes me wonder why on earth you would put your hard earned into this stock. The chalks may/ my not be commercial blah blah. I keep hearing, "read between the lines" etc etc. but until the bit between the lines says what they actually have, then people really have to take a reality check on this one in comparison to other opportunities out there.

Totally agree with you itchy.

Yeh I understand your reasoning but Im affraid my conclusion lies in the same pattern as AgentM who has enlightened us all with his informative posts ones that doubters are lacking

 

[resourceboom]

There are plenty of believers, plenty of non believers. The speccy nature of this share means there could be massive losses if all turns to you know what. I believe, and am happy with the risk reward! Time will tell whether this was a wise decision. Each to their own!!

 

[resourceboom]

Forgot to mention that till we get any news re commerciality the SP could go anywhere, but most holders would be aware of that.

 

[Agentm]

everyone makes their decisions on adi based on their own research.

with an alliance making it the 4th biggest oil explorer in aust i am not complaining about the future of the stock post sugarloaf.

SL is totally about reading between the lines, and totally about understanding what and how business is done in texas, when i read a post about it not being about secrecy, then i have to discount the post as it has no facts added to counter the reasons i know are in play on the Sl well. and i cant see anything to work with and analyse the post much further. if your on the stock , then you must fully familiarise yourself to how things are played in texas as its crutial factor in the future of the sp.

For those who are strong willed enought to talk to the jvp's and actually find out for themselves, i see those people are similar in view to me, and stay firmly on the stock. again i have challenged anyone who doubts Sl to DYOR and actively communicate with the JVP's and directly ask if what couch oil reported is to be totally discounted. i note that despite numerous doubters on the Sl prospect posting, none have actually come forward with their results from the challenge.

anyone can call the SL prospect uncommercial, without doing any research, and be half convincing, the well has not been fraced, and in no way can any of the jvp's tout success on the chalks until that part of the operation is completed. oddly there is no noise about why they are not testing the chalks?? i find it an open invitation for any doubter to easily scare an investor and say they have to doubt the well if the JVP's are simply ignoring the secondaries. somehow i dont hear that from the doubters, which says to me that there is obviously a unanimous and silent consensus that the untested chalks are simply laying dormant, with no action occuring, and yet no one is saying that it must be because the chalks are uncommercial.

so why are we all holding onto the shares so tighly?

again i point out that the people being critical of the investors on this stock, that they dont need to be thinking about the reasons nor be responsible for the actions of other investors. i have held on to adi despite absolutely being convinced i should be on BDG and get the 40% sp increase. but i have held firm and stick to what i know. nwe wpg and cvn have not increased 40% in the past few weeks.. i dont ask for advice from others on any stock, but will gladly contribute to comment on adi.

I need not look any further than this stock to see a vastly undervalued stock in the making. if i didnt see a massive sp increase dwarfing the petty 40% the bdg stock has just seen then i wouldnt be holding the adi stock for another day. i know what i am doing and i fully understand what risk, if any, there is.

i just read the azz report released today, they have some more news on NT that was not released to the market previously

The Ilse-1 well on the New Taiton project spudded on 1 December 2006
and reached a total depth of 17,000 feet early March 2007. A significant
show was encountered over a 70 foot interval from 14,550-14,620 feet
with sandstone and elevated gas readings up to 1000 units. This is tentatively interpreted to be the secondary upper Wilcox Meek sandstone
target which has a mapped reserve potential of 20 BCF. The Operator
is currently preparing to run logs at 17,000 feet.​

its possible NT is still on track towards being a producer in the near term..

good luck to holders, and again DYOR and keep checking the facts..

 

[chops_a_must]

again i point out that the people being critical of the investors on this stock, that they dont need to be thinking about the reasons nor be responsible for the actions of other investors. i have held on to adi despite absolutely being convinced i should be on BDG and get the 40% sp increase. but i have held firm and stick to what i know. nwe wpg and cvn have not increased 40% in the past few weeks.. i dont ask for advice from others on any stock, but will gladly contribute to comment on adi.

Lol! WGP up ~250% in the last week.
NWE and CVN both up more than 30% in the time ADI has almost halved.

You say ADI are the 4th biggest explorer in Australia. Whoopty doo. It's just a bit of w**k factor if they haven't got much to produce.

Regardless of the Texas oil industry, they have to publicly release their plans for the Austin Chalks. They owe that to holders. Until they do, people should remain sceptical. I notice BUR are drilling in the chalks right now... yet, not a sound here about that...

I'm not ruling out holding this in the future, but until they decide to get out of the smoke and mirrors game, scepticism should well and truly reign.

 

[constable]

Agentm and chops ....convincing arguements from both sides of the fence!!
Im still holding eka for sl and am patiently waiting.........
Chops looking at the graph on adi.....after today's rise ,should it hold ,adi looks like it could be a double bottom. Certainly looks oversold with so much in the pipeline.

 

[chops_a_must]

Agentm and chops ....convincing arguements from both sides of the fence!!
Im still holding eka for sl and am patiently waiting.........
Chops looking at the graph on adi.....after today's rise ,should it hold ,adi looks like it could be a double bottom. Certainly looks oversold with so much in the pipeline.

A double bottom would be below .50. However, it does seem to have good support above and below 50. I'd assume the buying strength is in anticipation of the next NT announcement. Could hold it above 70 if it is positive.

 

[constable]

A double bottom would be below .50. However, it does seem to have good support above and below 50. I'd assume the buying strength is in anticipation of the next NT announcement. Could hold it above 70 if it is positive.

My bad....
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom
what is the name for this particular type of reversal formation that adi is pushing out???(im sure its got one).

 

[Agentm]

i am hoping for that chops, have plenty more shares to buy in the near term, and i fully expect .50 in the near term..

i am curious why your not posting on wpg thread chops. either before or after it rose, i can go look up a whole bunch of stocks that went up and say to adi investors to look elsewhere also, but is that a good enough reason to jump off the stock?

as for the alliance, you certainly show no respect towards it, yet ian mcfarlane mentioned it in a speech last week, i would like to know why the federal minister is so upbeat about it and you show so much resentment toward the alliance, i have not heard any negative press or comment anywhere except from you. have you a problem with the alliance? as a shareholder i cant see any downside on it. if you spoke to woodside and hardiman they would not agree with your view on the alliance. they have massive respect for max.. what makes you think max cant deliver for us?


as for BUR drilling into the austin chalks? so what, its not on the same play at all, SL in karnes county and miles away, the chalks are a major carrier of hydrocarbon plays rights accross the gulf.. just as the wilcox is a prolific producer. just because other companies drill in the austin or wilcox plays in texas is not enough reason to jump off this prospect in karnes county in my book

i would prefer to hear from any doubters why they know the sl chalks are dead.. just keep it simple, just some sound reasons to think about, all investors need to consider all sides.. if you discount the sl chalks as commercial then your certainly making some wierd decisions to value the stock at its current price in my books, for me the major value in the share comes from SL and if anyone has reasons to bring forward on the issue that can be debated, then love to hear it and i think everyone would like to discuss it.

as for smoke and mirrors, chops thats how its done in texas, if you declare what you have to your competitors then you may as well not be in the game, you can only afford to sign up a limited amount of leases on a play, and certianly you dont share your finds to anyone, a neighbouring leaseholder has potential to be part of your future, so you dont tell them everything before you approach them to sign them up. and in texas anyone can sign up anybody, if someone senses a major play, then the big boys arrive and try to cut into the play, tco can keep up with the majors, i have my reasons to believe that, so i am not concerned on that front.,
you cant invest in that atmosphere, and thats a good way to be chops, but that doesnt mean others have not done their research and fully expect the sl chalks play to be extremely commercial.

dyor on the way things are done in texas and get a good idea about it on this stock, i maintain its a key factor in why the sp is currently where it is and why the share is tightly held

 

[chops_a_must]

as for the alliance, you certainly show no respect towards it, yet ian mcfarlane mentioned it in a speech last week, i would like to know why the federal minister is so upbeat about it and you show so much resentment toward the alliance, i have not heard any negative press or comment anywhere except from you. have you a problem with the alliance? as a shareholder i cant see any downside on it. if you spoke to woodside and hardiman they would not agree with your view on the alliance. they have massive respect for max.. what makes you think max cant deliver for us?

i would prefer to hear from any doubters why they know the sl chalks are dead.. just keep it simple, just some sound reasons to think about, all investors need to consider all sides.. if you discount the sl chalks as commercial then your certainly making some wierd decisions to value the stock at its current price in my books, for me the major value in the share comes from SL and if anyone has reasons to bring forward on the issue that can be debated, then love to hear it and i think everyone would like to discuss it.

You'd have to check the CSM thread for my posts on WGP.

I don't have a problem with the alliance, but I'm critical that people seem to be writing as if success had already been achieved.

I understand that that is how things are done in Texas. The issue for me is not what they may or may not have in the chalks, but their plans for it. And so far they haven't said anything, as far as I am aware.

So if you have any information about this then post it. Otherwise stating that they have commercial amounts, and that reserves will be above expectations, without any support, is a blatant ramp.

 

[Agentm]

there is no success in the alliance? its not the point of it, the alliance is set up to make a success of projects that the entities as individuals can not achieve. you have it all wrong. no one has made any posts that they have allready achieved success, there has been no project declared and no commencement of anything to determin or measure success.

two of the jvps have declared their plans for the secondaries last year, then very abruptly were never mentioned again, adi has declared 2 shallow wells in 2007. i have posted this and lots of other info on the jvp's attitude towards the chalks. arq has once stated they were commercial.

if you think this thread is not moderated and anything being said about the chalks being commercial is a blatent ramp then you obviously have not been reading this thread enough, nor simply checked all the info posted by the jvp's, i have seen nowhere where the jvp's have written off the chalks. . DYOR and tell me where they have written off the chalks chops.

there are plenty of mentions from jvp's and their partners and brokers making very amazing claims on the chalks. All is ask from you chops is to present to the forum when and where the chalks are written off. i am happy to debate the chalks, i feel any investor is extremely interested in the subject.

anything you are not aware but the jvp's are aware of and have declared isnt simply ramping, i feel your not very objective, there is plenty of research that you are not aware of and i am, and just because you dont know what the jvp's has announced, does not mean people are ramping, it simply means others, including the jvp's, are more informed perhaps than you. please look back in the posts, look back into the reports and announcements made by all the jvp's, if you want references to the chalks by the jvp's, and please present to the forum where it says they are written off, and perhaps you can explain why they are not testing the secondaries today.. is it because the chalks are completely worthless??

 

[chops_a_must]

two of the jvps have declared their plans for the secondaries last year, then very abruptly were never mentioned again, adi has declared 2 shallow wells in 2007. i have posted this and lots of other info on the jvp's attitude towards the chalks. arq has once stated they were commercial.

if you think this thread is not moderated and anything being said about the chalks being commercial is a blatent ramp then you obviously have not been reading this thread enough, nor simply checked all the info posted by the jvp's, i have seen nowhere where the jvp's have written off the chalks. . DYOR and tell me where they have written off the chalks chops.

I feel you are misreading my posts.

Why have we not heard anything about the development of the chalks? If the results from them are so amazing, surely you would expect them to be doing everything they can to be bringing them online as quickly as possible. Instead, we here nothing and have to assume delays or non-development. THIS is why I am saying you have to have a sceptical attitude towards this stock AT THIS PRESENT TIME. As you cannot invest in hopes and dreams.

 

[chance fate]

Just joined this forum thing... the ADI thread makes interesting reading... I've been an ADI holder on and off since July last year... sold just after SL hit it's high and moved into EKA when it fell away from 40-50cents because EKA and ADI were going in opposite directions (before Hosston testing) which for me didn't make sense - and doubtless just like other EKA holders am feeling stuck pending SL shallow testing results...

Obviously there's alot of specualtion as to why the timing of these tests hasn't been announced yet... I can think of a few reasons but wondering if anyone can think of others... could run a critical eye over them and try to narrow them down...

e.g.

1] There's still some uncertainty concering the success of the Hosston testing which precludes the lower portion of the well from being plugged to enable testing of the shallower targets - i doubt this as there'd have been an announcement concerning the need for further study work and testing...
2] Equipment and personnel not contracted/available to do the tests
3] JVP's seeking a farminee to help funding - unlikely
4] Lack of JV consensus on the Hosston results/way ahead..

Out of these no. 2 seems the most likely reason - but there maybe something in 4]

I think it's pretty bad form that announcements concering the status of progress on preparations for testing of the shallow targets haven't been forthcoming... an announcement could at least state where the hold up lies and how it's to be overcome.... unless that would reveal commercially sensitive information which may work to the detriment of shareholders....

 

[chance fate]

Just re-reading AgentM's comments with interest on business style in Texas re. lack of news on SL shallow testing... AgentM, I like the idea that no news is good news: and it does appear that as soon as the negative results on the primary tests were know they were released.... Also it appears that Alex Forcke's philosophy on speculation (i.e. overvalued share price) is avoid providing opinion... (having said that I've seen one or 2 comments in ARQ presentations re. 'enouraging results').... having been involved in well testing in The Netherlands I can't imagine testing of a zone could take longer than a week....more like a couple of days... the test results, flow rates, pressure drawdown and build up, would then need to be analysed by a production technologist/reservoir engineer, for argument's sake a weeks work... so results should be known within 2 weeks of start of testing... if there are several zones this process would take longer.... and i'd imagine the JV's would prefer to make a single announcement on the totality of the tests rather than step by step as results come to hand... so given the primary tests finished 14th March (i think)... if they moved onto the shallow targets straight away the results would be imminent.... but then again the last announcement re. SL stated that an anouncement would be made when timing for the tests is known - and there hasn't been one ...

 

[The Snorkler]

If the oil game in Texas is like poker and concealing your hand is the norm then why did Couch announce a discovery (and development plan) on his website when the chalks were intersected - on limited information? Surely he would have greater experience than the JVPs. It does not make sense. Where is his interest in doing that??

Interesting article here on oil exploration in Uganda
http://www.pole-institute.org/documents/heritage05.pdf

Last year Heritage and Tullow have drilled a vary exciting discovery - Kingfisher-1. The history of Heritage sure is interesting. Its like something out of "Blood Diamond".

 

[Agentm]

i cant in all seriousness answer that snorkler, and believe me since he made that announcement its been the single most burning question on my agenda. he announced the 100 wells development plan and didnt realise the strategy of TCO, and he may not have, in his excitement, realised that people like me, and about 3 or so months later, other forums in the UK started picking up on his weekly annoiuncements on his website. Couch oil has never been named as a JVP, its something you have to seek out and find for yourself. and couch oil has a long history of revealing everything on their website on all wells, right down to gas and oil readings daily, and being very transparent. i feel the difference here is that suddenly the massive potential of the size and value of the chalks play may have overwhelmed him, he excitedly announced the things being discussed, and did not realise the other factors that the jvp's required on the play. He certainly was told quickly to pull the site, and now his policy on data and flow rates on all wells is held closely secret, and reports are emailed individually to all interested investors. Sugarloaf is not mentioned at all anywhere on his site, not even as a well currently being drilled. perhaps he was just his lax and lazy manner that caused much constination amoungst the JVP's. No jvp i have spoken to has denied couch oil as a participant, and none have come out and denied the couch report. and when you read it, it is extremely accurate on all aspects regarding what was happeing on the drill, whats reflected in that report, as well as all other reports, is precise and to the letter accurate reflections that the other JVP's had announced, with the exception of one report containing some extra things not revealed by the operator nor any of the other jvp's!!

At the time of the couch report, arq announced the find as potentially commercial, and adi announced 2 shallow wells and the outcome that the chalks would be a entire seperate play developed seperately from any wells on the sands should it have been commercial there. Then another jvp announced similar plans, and all this without even flow testing!

then silence......... no smoke and mirrors, just minimalist reporting and silence........

i look forward to them announcing when the workover rig and frac crew will arive on site to further production test the
chalks.

re the link snorkler. i read that last week myself when researching the rift valley, cover to cover its absolutely frightening!! lets hope for mali!!

 

[stereo21]

From ADI's announcement on NT today...

A testing program is being prepared by the operator and should be available for review by the joint venture partners in the next day or two. A fracture stimulation program for the lower Wilcox is anticipated. Negotiations for a pipeline access are underway.

I don't know about anyone else but negotiations to access a pipeline surely must be telling the market they believe this well will be commercial!

 

[Agentm]

i was about to post exactly the same thing, i totally agree with you.

looks like adi is about to become an oil and gas producer!

 

[Sniffer]

as for smoke and mirrors, chops thats how its done in texas, if you declare what you have to your competitors then you may as well not be in the game, you can only afford to sign up a limited amount of leases on a play, and certianly you dont share your finds to anyone, a neighbouring leaseholder has potential to be part of your future, so you dont tell them everything before you approach them to sign them up.

I tend to agree with most of your logic. However it sure seems like they are not being too silent on NT. Why are they giving us good info on NT and not SL secondaries. They are both at the same point (logged/not tested). Sugarloaf leases have been secured for over a year now and if TCE does not have the lease Pioneer Resources does.

The wait to announce testing does not seem normal. Pioneer produces from the wilcox and edwards at the pawnee field just a few miles away. The geology of the shallows is well known, the test program should be boiler plate.