Trender's Price and Volume trading

[trender]

Hi guys,

Thought I'd post some of my trades and analysis as much as possible in real time. This is how I have been trading for almost 7 years now and I cant complain too much. I take tons of losses but my gains are greater.

The main reason I am posting these is because I am more than happy for feedback/suggestion/criticisms etc on volume and price trading, my trade management or risk management. Anything that can make me better and is useful to my trading I am grateful for.

I'll start with 2 trades I am in. One is more recent than the other.


High level approach. I follow daily market structure and wait for a pullback. When price closes over the downward DAILY trend line I switch to 1 or 4h view and wait for price to close above significant transactions. This signifies to me that the probability of the path of least resistance being upward is more likely than not. I enter on the 1 or 4h and target the daily high or daily measured move.

Thanks in advance


This trade executed yesterday.


This trade was taken a few days ago.

 

[peter2]

Good on you for posting. It's hard to offer suggestions to someone who's been successful with a method for so long.

Your past results should contain all the information you need to improve. Are you happy with your current performance?
- could you have entered earlier?
- could a different position sizing earned more?
- could I improve on my exits?

I've one concern about using 4hr charts on securities that only trade for 6.5 hrs/day. The bar containing 4hrs worth of volume will naturally be larger than the next 4hr bar with only 2.5hr volume. Impossible to compare the pair.

Now if you use the 1hr OK I get it. I also review the 1st hour of trading looking for very high volume with a significant bullish bar (often gap ups). Very often a 1hr HVBB is a great setup provided it's within the chart context of what formation or pattern you're using.



High Volume Bullish bar (HVBB) as a possible stop hunt, bear trap, fake out. Reversal setup that has started well.

 

[peter2]

Here's WMT showing a 1hr HVBB that's a good trend continuation setup.

 

[trender]

Good on you for posting. It's hard to offer suggestions to someone who's been successful with a method for so long.

Your past results should contain all the information you need to improve. Are you happy with your current performance?
- could you have entered earlier?
- could a different position sizing earned more?
- could I improve on my exits?

I've one concern about using 4hr charts on securities that only trade for 6.5 hrs/day. The bar containing 4hrs worth of volume will naturally be larger than the next 4hr bar with only 2.5hr volume. Impossible to compare the pair.

Now if you use the 1hr OK I get it. I also review the 1st hour of trading looking for very high volume with a significant bullish bar (often gap ups). Very often a 1hr HVBB is a great setup provided it's within the chart context of what formation or pattern you're using.

View attachment 192656

High Volume Bullish bar (HVBB) as a possible stop hunt, bear trap, fake out. Reversal setup that has started well.

Hi Peter,

Thank you for your post, questions and your trade example. Much appreciated. I have cut and pasted your questions and try to answer them. Your Qs are in Green.

Are you happy with your current performance?
I am happy with my yearly returns. After all trading expenses, I am comfortably beating the market indexes.
- could you have entered earlier?
I have strict rules with entry so the only time I can enter earlier is if i missed the optimal entry due to not watching enough. I have experimented a lot with trying to enter earlier based off lower timeframes with some success however I then need to change the timeframe of the higher bias. This is fine, however I then classify it as a different timeframe setup.

- could a different position sizing earned more?
This is what I have been focused and working on over the last 18 months. Sizing up and adding to trades that work in my favour. Its a work in progrsss but the results are very promising. I just need to find the best trade management I can live with once a large amount of profits in a trade have accumulated.

- could I improve on my exits?
I have tried so many methods to try and capture as much profits as possible and give back the least amount. I found what works best for me is not to assess exit strategies on any individual trade. Rather look at say 30 trades average best optimal time to exit, then apply that standard/strategy to all my trades. Do you have any other suggestions?

I've one concern about using 4hr charts on securities that only trade for 6.5 hrs/day.
I understand your concern. So when I look at a volume candle, I am not actually interested in comparing which volume is bigger or smaller than another one etc. I am more interested in which candle on relatively low volume has closed over another which has much higher volume.


Thanks again for your feedback!

 

[trender]

Here's WMT showing a 1hr HVBB that's a good trend continuation setup.

View attachment 192657

With your example on the 1h, i entered not much after your entry. On the 1h it works well to. Let me take a screenshot of what i mean.

Just ignore my trade entry on the chart. I have indicated on the 1h, how i would use price and volume with the example you gave mate.

 

[trender]

@peter2 How do you set take profits? Do you adjust SL during trade management, have targets based off some market structure or just a fixed Reward to risk? What do you find has overall worked best for you?

Thanks

 

[ducati916]

Chaps,

So what I have been experimenting with this week is setting the target for exit prior to entering the trade and then structuring the trade for that exit.

Part of that calculation (guess) is dependent on what timeframe you are choosing.

For swing trades I like about a month +/-

So an example that failed badly



A few days later, the exit



What I like:

Although the stock lost about $20 in price, the trade lost $0.40 in value.

Now, I have some open trades, one for tomorrow:




Which is simply a PP target.

So your strategy revolves around volume (or uses it as an important component).

So WMT



I had this trade from $92'ish to $98'ish (just trading to PP targets)

I would have closed the trade already, using a target take profit. I might have bought the EMA support and sold the PP target.

Different strokes, different folks.

FWIW



Just announced.

jog on
duc

 

[trender]

Chaps,

So what I have been experimenting with this week is setting the target for exit prior to entering the trade and then structuring the trade for that exit.

Part of that calculation (guess) is dependent on what timeframe you are choosing.

For swing trades I like about a month +/-

So an example that failed badly

View attachment 192679View attachment 192678

A few days later, the exit

View attachment 192677View attachment 192676

What I like:

Although the stock lost about $20 in price, the trade lost $0.40 in value.

Now, I have some open trades, one for tomorrow:


View attachment 192681View attachment 192680

Which is simply a PP target.

So your strategy revolves around volume (or uses it as an important component).

So WMT

View attachment 192682

I had this trade from $92'ish to $98'ish (just trading to PP targets)

I would have closed the trade already, using a target take profit. I might have bought the EMA support and sold the PP target.

Different strokes, different folks.

FWIW

View attachment 192683

Just announced.

jog on
duc

Mate your reward to risk is phenomenal! Indeed asymmetrical. Assuming your win rate is adequate, that's outstanding. What do you mean by PP target?

Thanks for your post. I dont understand that insider trading bit you posted. Are you saying thats an example of insider trading?


With regards to CRM, I am watching it too. Price has broken above my downward DAILY trend line. So now I am waiting to execute on the 1h. I need the price/volume dynamic to trigger before I'll go long. Thats waiting for price on low volume to close above a red or yellow volume candle. Lets see how it plays out for us.

Cheers

 

[peter2]

I have targets based in R:R multiples and only think about them when price action looks overbought, eg. 3 consecutive up days, huge gap up that's above my 2R price etc.
Taking profits: I don't do it as well as I could. I take most profits too soon. Upon review I'm never happy.
I'm working on reducing the size of my initial stops so that price can get to 2R quicker. I generally sell half to grab a reasonable profit, move my exit stop just above break-even and let the remaining half go.

I'll take profits faster in a trade book than I would in a medium term portfolio. I try to match the trade management with the goals of the capital being used. My portfolios aim for 10 - 20% pa, while the trade book is looking for much more >30% pa.

 

[trender]

I have targets based in R:R multiples and only think about them when price action looks overbought, eg. 3 consecutive up days, huge gap up that's above my 2R price etc.
Taking profits: I don't do it as well as I could. I take most profits too soon. Upon review I'm never happy.
I'm working on reducing the size of my initial stops so that price can get to 2R quicker. I generally sell half to grab a reasonable profit, move my exit stop just above break-even and let the remaining half go.

I'll take profits faster in a trade book than I would in a medium term portfolio. I try to match the trade management with the goals of the capital being used. My portfolios aim for 10 - 20% pa, while the trade book is looking for much more >30% pa.

Ah ok gotcha. I misunderstood your RR metrics.. what timeframes do you trade?


Thanks

 

[trender]

I'm working on reducing the size of my initial stops so that price can get to 2R quicker.

This can be tricky because you may get your 2R quicker but your win rate could suffer which would be counter productive overall. So you'd need to maintain the same win rate.

 

[ducati916]

Mate your reward to risk is phenomenal! Indeed asymmetrical. Assuming your win rate is adequate, that's outstanding. What do you mean by PP target?

Thanks for your post. I dont understand that insider trading bit you posted. Are you saying thats an example of insider trading?


With regards to CRM, I am watching it too. Price has broken above my downward DAILY trend line. So now I am waiting to execute on the 1h. I need the price/volume dynamic to trigger before I'll go long. Thats waiting for price on low volume to close above a red or yellow volume candle. Lets see how it plays out for us.

Cheers
View attachment 192694

So a PP target is a 'Pivot Point' which are labeled P, R1, R2 and S1, S2 and they just represent possible inflection points. But for me they make good targets.

The selling is from the insiders (Company Officers etc)
He just put in a pretty substantial sell order which will execute tomorrow in the market.

There was recently an example of Bezos in Amazon that created a resistance point, so heavy was his selling.



When it's heavy enough, it can form a bit of a barrier.

That being said, peanuts by comparison.

A strike rate of about 75%

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

I have targets based in R:R multiples and only think about them when price action looks overbought, eg. 3 consecutive up days, huge gap up that's above my 2R price etc.
Taking profits: I don't do it as well as I could. I take most profits too soon. Upon review I'm never happy.
I'm working on reducing the size of my initial stops so that price can get to 2R quicker. I generally sell half to grab a reasonable profit, move my exit stop just above break-even and let the remaining half go.

I'll take profits faster in a trade book than I would in a medium term portfolio. I try to match the trade management with the goals of the capital being used. My portfolios aim for 10 - 20% pa, while the trade book is looking for much more >30% pa.

LOL. No one takes profits well.

jog on
duc