Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Finally the reality of Trump tariffs are with us and it is causing chaos spreading from the macro at government level to the mid, the large auto, food and construction companies. It should hit retail by the time US markets start trading at 12.30 am tomorrow morning AEST.

Already gold is moving. Chaos always benefits gold. The chaos in capital and commodity markets is being exacerbated by DOGE. Musk's meddling with Treasury over the weekend is causing resignations and will shortly affect the Not For Profit sector who exist on breadcrumb funds from Treasury.

This morning gold is hovering just above and below $2800 and in all likelihood will resume its move towards $3000. Most commentators see this being achieved by the end of this quarter in 8 weeks time. I see it happening much earlier.

gg

 

[farmerge]

Finally the reality of Trump tariffs are with us and it is causing chaos spreading from the macro at government level to the mid, the large auto, food and construction companies. It should hit retail by the time US markets start trading at 12.30 am tomorrow morning AEST.

Already gold is moving. Chaos always benefits gold. The chaos in cpital and commodity markets is being exacerbated by DOGE. Musk's meddling with Treasury over the weekend is causing resignations and will shortly affect the Not For Profit sector who exist on breadcrumb funds from Treasury.

This morning gold is hovering just above and below $2800 and in all likelihood will resume its move towards $3000. Most commentators see this being achieved by the end of this quarter in 8 weeks time. I see it happening much earlier.

gg

@Garpal Gumnut Starting to look seriously at gold stocks as POTUS will no doubt stuff up many things except of course his $Trump.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Garpal Gumnut Starting to look seriously at gold stocks as POTUS will no doubt stuff up many things except of course his $Trump.

I've never been able to time my entry in to the larger gold mining stocks. There are a few very good threads on ASF on these. I stick to PMGOLD for big buys in gold for my SMSF and to penny gold stocks for medium term smaller punts.

One alwys assumes gold stocks will rise with an increase in POG, but ...

gg

 

[ducati916]

I've never been able to time my entry in to the larger gold mining stocks. There are a few very good threads on ASF on these. I stick to PMGOLD for big buys in gold for my SMSF and to penny gold stocks for medium term smaller punts.

One alwys assumes gold stocks will rise with an increase in POG, but ...

gg

Mr GG,

The gold/gold stock nexus is broken.

You want physical gold (pretty much only).

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Mr GG,

The gold/gold stock nexus is broken.

You want physical gold (pretty much only).

jog on
duc

I decided to go that way a little while ago with some very minor exceptions where there's a significant disconnect in potential value v price evident, but the stocks are going to follow general equities in any capitulation, so I agree.

 

[farmerge]

I've never been able to time my entry in to the larger gold mining stocks. There are a few very good threads on ASF on these. I stick to PMGOLD for big buys in gold for my SMSF and to penny gold stocks for medium term smaller punts.

One alwys assumes gold stocks will rise with an increase in POG, but ...

gg

@Garpal Gumnut just maybe gg that this will be the year of gold. Not sure what the Chinese New Year but GOLD will surfice.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

For new members to ASF and for members new to investing in gold just remember the following.

One of the easier ways of buying Gold is to buy a listed entity such as Perth Mint Gold, the ticker is PMGOLD, this is in Australian dollars $AUD. Gold is mostly traded in US Dollars $USD. So the usual exposure of Australian investors to gold exposes one to the vagaries of the AUD/USD exchange rate as well as the price of gold POG. PMGOLD is quoted in $AUD as one hundredth of the POG in $AUD.

So for example I bought PMGOLD at a good price yesterday morning and saw it rise , however the $AUD gained 1.78% against the $USD since then and my investment has not moved at all if not fallen a bit at times. It can work in your favour as well should the POG rise in $USD as the Aussie falls against the $USD.

My way of investing in gold is medium to long term as short term gains including brokerage can wipe out any gains in the metal itself.

This can contribute to the fundamentals of gold stocks as well. gold producers need to hedge against movements in currency as well as the POG. A poor bet on either, even though the producer is doing well mining wise, can cause the worth of the stock to fall.

It is all very interesting and exciting, I find it so anyways.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Still amazed that gold juniors haven't all just taken off simultaneously with this. I remember the uranium craze back in the naughties and you just needed to throw a dart at the uranium miners and they'd go 10x in a short while. This has not really happened with gold. Maybe the POG needs to go 10x before that happens...which means it needs to keep going parabolic for a little while yet.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

FWIW Spot Gold goes North in the times of Currency Wars and the Real Gold Bugs never Sell
They just can't do it !

However Gold Shares tend milk the Public with huge discounts and High salaries for the boys

It is Just Business! You must Learn to live with it and act accordingly
Crikey! Everyone is entitled to make a living

 

[Sean K]

Breaking these lines and we could be back off to the races.

View attachment 190925

I hardly ever quote myself, because I get it wrong 90% of the time, but this was important.

And, that consolidation just above support was gold.

Will crash now.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

FWIW Have you ever met a Gold Bug who could his Gold?

 

[finicky]

.. ever met a Gold Bug who could his Gold?

Heaps of times

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Heaps of times

I can't name ONE
Can You?

 

[finicky]

@Captain_Chaza
"could . ." what? Sell?
Go over to silverstackers.com sometime. People sell gold there. I have a friend who sold her gold coz she spends until she's broke. Another friend sold his silver - as did I, even as a bug. Silver's a burden.

 

[finicky]

Australia & New Zealand (Public)

Buy, swap or sell bullion & numismatics. Visible to general public.

www.silverstackers.com

There's also a member's private trading 'floor'.

They're mostly all bugs and they're selling (and buying)

 

[ducati916]

The UK’s BullionVault, partially owned by RIT Capital Partners which is an investment arm of the Rothschild family, reports the following rates to lease physical gold and silver in London on Monday February 3, 2025:
Gold : 4.5% for a 1 month lease
Silver: 6.5% for a 1 month lease

In the article, Bruce Ikemizu of the Japanese Bullion Market Association says of the silver lease rate "6.5% for silver is almost at a level that could be called a squeeze".

Ikemizu further comments regarding the London market "Metal for immediate delivery has been so in demand that short-dated forward rates have moved into a rare backwardation, pushing lease rates higher."

In addition, on January 24, 2025 CEO of Scottsdale Mint Josh Phair reported NY lease rates of 10% for gold. I am trying to get in touch with Josh Phair to confirm and will let you know if I hear back from him.

Implied Lease Rates constructed from digital futures prices for gold and silver have not yet responded and are providing a lower indication however, they are expected to catch up with time. We’ll see.

Silver And Gold Will Increasingly Be Squeezed As Relentless Physical Demand Ends Leveraged Promissory Note Pricing​

With an estimated 400M oz. of gold cash/spot contracts and 5B oz. of silver cash/spot contracts standing in the London market and with the ‘free float’ (actual metal bars available to market) standing at a tiny fraction of this level, if the current run for delivery of physical metal continues it will be terminal for the decades-long price setting fraud operated by the Bank of England in The City of London’s market - the world’s largest gold and silver trading cash market.

The fact that Reuters and the Financial Times are claiming that we are seeing market dysfunction merely because of a slow-down in the lease market logistics is interesting. London traders scrambling to lease sufficient metal to meet demands for metal delivery against largely unbacked cash/spot gold and silver notes is telling - the surging lease rates tells us that not only are logistics slowed-down but there is insufficient metal available to be leased - they don’t have the available metal.


jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold is up 0.81% in $USD and 0.27% in $AUD overnight in the markets via Kitco.com.

Trumps antics have caused a pause in the strengthening of the $USD, this is good for Gold though, so we cannot be always on the right side of the trade here in Australia.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

In addition, on January 24, 2025 CEO of Scottsdale Mint Josh Phair reported NY lease rates of 10% for gold. I am trying to get in touch with Josh Phair to confirm and will let you know if I hear back from him.

Implied Lease Rates constructed from digital futures prices for gold and silver have not yet responded and are providing a lower indication however, they are expected to catch up with time. We’ll see.

Silver And Gold Will Increasingly Be Squeezed As Relentless Physical Demand Ends Leveraged Promissory Note Pricing​

With an estimated 400M oz. of gold cash/spot contracts and 5B oz. of silver cash/spot contracts standing in the London market and with the ‘free float’ (actual metal bars available to market) standing at a tiny fraction of this level, if the current run for delivery of physical metal continues it will be terminal for the decades-long price setting fraud operated by the Bank of England in The City of London’s market - the world’s largest gold and silver trading cash market.

The fact that Reuters and the Financial Times are claiming that we are seeing market dysfunction merely because of a slow-down in the lease market logistics is interesting. London traders scrambling to lease sufficient metal to meet demands for metal delivery against largely unbacked cash/spot gold and silver notes is telling - the surging lease rates tells us that not only are logistics slowed-down but there is insufficient metal available to be leased - they don’t have the available metal.


jog on
duc

Fwiw, there is plenty of physical availability for Gold in Australia currently, for retail at least
Premium cost for physical on gold bullion yesterday was reasonable AUD fpr plastic wrapped Perth Mint bullion
About PM selling by gold bugs , as @Captain_Chaza argues,yes i personally tend not to sell physical especially as i mainly play with paper gold/silver
A huge buffer of mostly asx listed: pmgold, gold,etpmag and i get these get traded on the market on month windows

 

[ducati916]

Fwiw, there is plenty of physical availability for Gold in Australia currently, for retail at least
Premium cost for physical on gold bullion yesterday was reasonable AUD fpr plastic wrapped Perth Mint bullion
About PM selling by gold bugs , as @Captain_Chaza argues,yes i personally tend not to sell physical especially as i mainly play with paper gold/silver
A huge buffer of mostly asx listed: pmgold, gold,etpmag and i get these get traded on the market on month windows

Bonjour,

So you are in the market for 100M/oz or so?

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Fwiw, there is plenty of physical availability for Gold in Australia currently, for retail at least
Premium cost for physical on gold bullion yesterday was reasonable AUD fpr plastic wrapped Perth Mint bullion
About PM selling by gold bugs , as @Captain_Chaza argues,yes i personally tend not to sell physical especially as i mainly play with paper gold/silver
A huge buffer of mostly asx listed: pmgold, gold,etpmag and i get these get traded on the market on month windows

Missing price in my typing:
yesterday retail physical PM wrapped oz was $4660 roughly $100 aud more than official rate which i find fair