Investing in Artificial Intelligence (AI)

[Garpal Gumnut]

mind you their plan is working very well in the UK ( their alleged base )

You may ask what colour were the carrots that I bought in the supermarket last Friday.

The carrots that I bought in the supermarket last Friday were carrot coloured.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

You may ask what colour were the carrots that I bought in the supermarket last Friday.

The carrots that I bought in the supermarket last Friday were carrot coloured.

gg

well the orange ones used to be carrots and the whitish ones turnips , but in this 'rainbow world ' they might be purple next week

 

[divs4ever]

i'll stick to energy suppliers coal gas , oil and copper plays for AI , and industrial sheds/data centers for the next level exposure along with telcos so the databases can update themselves

 

[mullokintyre]

It seems that one fund manager sees a bubble in AI.
From MSN

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Zerohedge sees another sign that perhaps the bubble in Ai may be starting to lose a little air.

Shares of server-maker Super Micro Computer, which have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the AI euphoria over the past two years as it emerged as a proxy for AI demand (and server installs), soared as much as 16% before crashing more than 10%, after the company reported Q2 revenue and profit that missed estimates, but it was the company's plunging profit margins that which outweighed the company's ecstatic sales outlook that was billions above Wall Street projections as well as the 10-1 reverse stock split announcement.

For Q2, SMCI reported revenues of $5.31 billion, which missed the average estimate of $5.32 billion; while Adjusted EPS dropped to $6.25, well short of Super Micro’s own previous forecast and the $8.25 average analyst estimate.
But what truly spooked Wall Street was the incineration in margin which collapsed 580bps YoY (and 430bps QoQ) to just 11.3%, amid a fierce price cutting war with competitors such as Dell and Hewlett Packard.



Also, the $635 million in cash burn - the 3rd straight quarter of negative cash from operations - did not help.



While the company tried to blame the collapse in margins on "customer and product mix and investments in Talent and Research & Development, Wall Street did not buy it, and in fact it sold it aggressively, sending the stock collapsing to the lowest level of the year.

mick

 

[mullokintyre]

A further datapoint on the meme that the AI bubble deflation has begun.
From Extreme Tech
Intel announced that its third gen Gaudi chip will be a third the price of its competitors from NVIDIA.
A price war in AI chips, just what the doctor ordered.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The investment environment for AI is interesting atm.

from around the traps
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THE NEXT BIG THING IS...​

By Ed D'Agostino | October 22, 2024

Investors are always on the lookout for the next big thing. The next technology that will bring about an economic evolution. The next trillion-dollar industry (or company). The next shiny new investment that will propel their portfolios upward.

Investing in the next big thing isn’t easy. Look at the tech bubble of the late 1990s, followed by the crash of 2000. Venture capitalist Brad Gerstner, in a great interview with Meb Faber, noted that even if you knew the internet would be the next big thing, and even if you knew that search would be at the core of the internet, you probably wouldn’t have made money investing in early internet stocks. Most went to zero.

In the ‘90s, we had multiple search engines. I was fond of Ask Jeeves. Some of you won’t know what that is since it no longer exists. Jeeves, along with AltaVista, Infoseek, Lycos, Magellan, and several others are either gone or irrelevant today. Gerstner also pointed out that if you had the foresight (or luck) to invest in Google at its IPO and then held on, you would have hit the motherload. I say “luck” because that’s what it would have taken. Few investors can say they saw Google as the single best bet on the internet, and even fewer held on as the stock’s value oscillated on its way to becoming a $2 trillion market cap business.

Despite the challenges of anticipating the next big thing, let alone successfully investing in it, I can’t help myself. I’m an investor, but I have a speculative side.
I think quantum computing is the next big thing.

As we unlock the secrets of quantum, change will accelerate. The speed at which a quantum computer will operate, and the level of complexity a quantum system will be able to manipulate, are mind-boggling.

What’s the difference between quantum computing and today’s computers? Mainly the way it computes. Classical computers use bits, while quantum computers use qubits. IBM sums it up this way:

"A classical bit can only exist in either a 0 position or a 1 position. Qubits, however, can also occupy a third state known as a superposition. A superposition represents 0, 1, and all the positions in between taken at once, for a total of three separate positions."

I started my quantum research by watching videos (no surprise, I suppose). This one with CUNY professor Dr. Michio Kaku is a great primer. If you like Kaku’s style and want to go deeper, check out his book, Quantum Supremacy. I had to take the book one chapter at a time. This is heady stuff, even at the layman’s level...

The risks of investing in a fledgling industry are significant. Some of the risks I see with quantum include:

• Qubits are susceptible to errors, making scaling difficult.
• There are multiple approaches to working with qubits. Some involve operating at near absolute zero temperatures, lasers, and isolating photons or atoms.
• The cost to scale a quantum computer is proving to be enormously expensive, potentially eliminating smaller players in the space.
• Google is one of the big companies making progress in quantum computing. Will the Federal Trade Commission break it up? If so, will the entity that ends up with Google’s quantum technology have the capital to continue investing in the technology?

Quantum computing as an investment is an example of Gartner’s hype cycle at work, and we are in its early stages.

​

All of this to say, investing in quantum today is very much a speculation...

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang addresses CES after stock’s record close​

Jared Lynch

Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has unveiled a new generation of chips to provide the computing power needed to fuel the next phase of the artificial intelligence revolution and what he says is a “multitrillion-dollar opportunity”.

Addressing the world’s biggest consumer electronics show, Mr Huang said new scaling laws were emerging, paving the way for AI to “think” and train itself.

“Machine learning has changed how every application is going to be built, how computing will be done, and the possibilities, beyond,” he said, as he announced a “whole family of models” that are based off Meta’s llama.

“Every single enterprise in every single industry has been activated to start working on AI. Well, the thing that we did was we realised that the llama models really could be better fine tuned for enterprise use, and so we fine tune them using our expertise and our capabilities.”

Mr Huang said software coding was the next giant AI application, and with 30 million software engineers globally, it represented a “multi-trillion dollar opportunity”.

“Everybody is going to have a software assistant helping them code, if not, obviously you’re just you’re going to be way less productive and create lesser good code,” he told the Consumer Electronics Show. “It is very, very clear AI agents is probably the next robotics industry, and likely to be a multitrillion-dollar opportunity.”

Mr Huang showcased Nvidia’s new Blackwell RTX 50-series GPUs, priced from $US549 to $US1999.
“The GPU is just a beast, 92 billion transistors. Even the mechanical design is a miracle. Look at this. It’s got two fans. This whole graphics card is just one giant fan.
“The internet is producing about twice, twice the amount of data every single year as it did last year. I think the in the next couple of years will produce more data than all of humanity has ever produced since the beginning.
“The amount of computation that we need, of course, is incredible. And we would like, in fact, we would like, in fact, that society has the ability to scale the amount of computation to produce more and more novel and better intelligence, intelligence, of course, is the most valuable asset that we have, and it can be applied to solve a lot of very challenging problems.
“So scaling law, it’s driving enormous demand for Nvidia computing. It’s driving an enormous demand for this incredible chip we call Blackwell.”

Mr Huang, 61, spoke before a packed crowd at the Consumer Electronics Show at Michelob ULTRA Arena, a 12,000-seat stadium at Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas....

...AI has continued to dominate the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, with Samsung launching an ‘AI for all’ vision, with a focus of making the technology available “everyday, everywhere”, to save money, time and make “life more comfortable”.
“Samsung is committed to continuously evolving the potential of home appliances to operate beyond consumer expectations and be accessible in new ways to unlock more value, convenience and joy for Australians, every day,” Samsung Australia vice president Jeremy Senior said.
“Pairing AI with advanced screen technologies across a broader range of home appliances in the kitchen and laundry, we’re extending the ability for Australians to securely access and optimise their connected home from more centralised locations while adding entertainment features to unlock more value and joy from individual appliances.”

Microsoft said on Friday it is set to invest about $US80bn this year in data centres and other infrastructure to support AI.
Microsoft vice chairman and president Brad Smith said it was a “golden opportunity for American AI”.
“Not since the invention of electricity has the United States had the opportunity it has today to harness new technology to invigorate the nation’s economy,” Mr Smith said. “In many ways, artificial intelligence is the electricity of our age, and the next four years can build a foundation for America’s economic success for the next quarter century.”

Mr Smith said Microsoft had adopted a three-part vision for America’s technology success.
“This starts with advances and investments in world-leading American AI technology and infrastructure. Second, the country needs to champion skilling programs that will enable widespread AI adoption and enhanced career opportunities across the economy.
“Finally, the United States must focus on exporting American AI to our allies and friends, bolstering our domestic economy and ensuring that other countries benefit from AI advancements.”

This bodes well for Nvidia, which has “reinvented the computing stack” to accelerate the AI boom.
“Our platform drives the AI revolution, powering hundreds of millions of devices in every cloud and fuelling 75 per cent of the world’s TOP500 supercomputers,” the company said last week.

The author travelled to CES with assistance from Samsung, LG and Hisense

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-to-give-keynote-ces-speech-after-stocks-record-close/news-story/f402743111209621aa1ac11b8865ffb0

 

[Dona Ferentes]

President Trump announced the largest project in history to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States — the creation of a new American company, Stargate, which will invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure

 

[mullokintyre]

President Trump announced the largest project in history to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States — the creation of a new American company, Stargate, which will invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure

Perhaps the DOGE plan is just to replace all the government department employees with AI.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Perhaps the DOGE plan is just to replace all the government department employees with AI.
Mick

crikey , they would have to quadruple-check to erase any woke/DEI agenda out of the AI before trying that

 

[Dona Ferentes]

DeepSeek, a conversational AI developed by a Chinese hedge fund, challenges its dominance in artificial intelligence, The Information reported on Sunday citing two Meta employees familiar with internal discussions.

Meta’s AI leaders, including infrastructure director Mathew Oldham, have expressed concerns that the upcoming version of Meta’s Llama AI may fall short compared to DeepSeek’s groundbreaking performance, the report stated.

DeepSeek has quickly gained attention for outperforming established AI systems like OpenAI’s GPT models and Meta’s Llama, while operating at a fraction of their costs.

Its development raises significant capital expenditure (capex) questions for AI companies investing heavily in expensive infrastructure to support their models.

Meta, like its competitors, has spent billions on AI advancements, including scaling computational resources and optimizing model training. However, DeepSeek’s ability to achieve similar or better results with lower costs has raised concerns about the sustainability of such heavy investments.

Smaller firms aiming to compete in the AI space may face further challenges, as DeepSeek sets a new standard for cost-effective innovation.

The competition underscores the shifting landscape of AI development, where performance is no longer the sole metric of success. Cost efficiency and accessibility are becoming increasingly critical, putting pressure on industry leaders like Meta, NVIDIA Corporation, Microsoft Corporation, Alphabet and other tech leaders

 

[houtman]

DeepSeek’s ability to achieve similar or better results with lower costs has raised concerns about the sustainability of such heavy investments.

This is an interesting development, it could be quite a night on the NASDAQ, already down 2% on futures.

Something I read and no idea if correct but for DeepSeek-

- Training cost $100m down to $5m
- GPU's needed 100k down to 2k
- can run on gaming GPU's instead of data centre hardware.

And it is open source.

How do the big boys maintain a moat with this development?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

This is an interesting development, it could be quite a night on the NASDAQ, already down 2% on futures.

Something I read and no idea if correct but for DeepSeek-

- Training cost $100m down to $5m
- GPU's needed 100k down to 2k
- can run on gaming GPU's instead of data centre hardware.

And it is open source.

How do the big boys maintain a moat with this development?

just in case , Story and context

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/meta-scrambles-after-chinese-ai-equals-its-own-upending-silicon-valley

.
and

All About DeepSeek - The Chinese AI Startup Challenging The US Big Tech

DeepSeek's emergence as a disruptive force in the AI landscape is undeniable. Its innovative techniques, cost-efficient solutions and optimization strategies have challenged the status quo and forced established players to re-evaluate their approaches.

www.forbes.com

 

[basilio]

And where is this all going ? Alan Kohler offers a long analysis with a succinct finale.

DeepSeek's emergence signals the beginning of the human-replacing phase of AI​

By Alan Kohler

• Topic:Artificial Intelligence

6h ago6 hours ago

The world's business people are dreaming of a new era of legitimate slavery — free workers. (Reuters: Dado Ruvic/Illustration)

Link copied

Watching the global frenzy about the new Chinese artificial intelligence model, DeepSeek, last week, I remembered the Statement on AI Risk published by the Center on AI Safety and signed by 350 experts, on May 30, 2023.

It's an archaic curiosity now, like the Assyrian stone tablet from 2800 BC that predicted the end of the world.

That statement, now signed by twice as many concerned citizens, warned about the risk of human extinction from AI, which was perhaps a bit of an overreach, because … well, extinction? Come on! That's just a movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger.

What they should have warned about was jobs — the redundancy and destitution of most of humanity, unless there's some kind of universal income funded by taxes on robots.

What no-one talks about, as the AI revolution unfolds in stock market hype and scientific gung-ho, is what they're all really trying to do.
They're trying to replicate the human brain.

The rewards from doing this are expected to be greater than from any previous technological breakthrough in history.

'None of us will have a job' ( Elon Musk...)​

'None of us will have a job': How DeepSeek is changing the world

What no-one talks about as the AI revolution unfolds in stock market hype and scientific gung-ho is what the developers are really trying to do. They're trying to replicate the human brain.

www.abc.net.au

 

[divs4ever]

They're trying to replicate the human brain.

scary isn't it , and the FLAW will be making it a 'hive mind ' on the theory 'great minds think alike ' ( and fools never differ )

going to be interesting to watch

even more interesting for traders who more adapt 'mini AIs ' to help trade more efficiently and effectively

i will continue to invest in the 'selling shovels to miners strategy ' ( especially for AI trend following )

PS i these dumb-mucks use ECC ( error-correcting chips ) in essential hardware ( the strong tendency is NOT to use them to cut costs and increase speed )

but i have seen this all before
and greed incubates stupidity