Roller's Intraday futures journey

[Roller_1]

Another good read, another poor execution.

I was actually in with half size in the initial zone but I move my stop to breakeven way to early. It's hard to know if it was the right move as we were below a possible turning point. But with so much upwards momentum I really should have just put on the trade stop was in a good spot and just let it ride to at least my first target which what I said was the red line at 700.

Price is dropping now so there might be a possible re-entry coming up. But these other dangerous trades where you can get into revenge mode.

 

[eskys]

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[Roller_1]

So much volatility around still.

It is also interesting that a lot of the big moves lately have come after lunch, the stock market reopens at 1 PM SA time and lately around 1-1:30 price has taken off.

A few levels marked up on the chart that I will be keeping an eye on

 

[Roller_1]

This is the weekly chart, huge breakout from the lows of that the base. Starting to look overextended?

 

[eskys]

Today's economic news in less than an hour, Roller. Good morning.

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Unemployment Rate
• 12:00 pm: China Industrial Production
• 12:00 pm: China Fixed Asset Investment
• 12:00 pm: China Retail Sales
• 10:15 pm: ECB Interest Rate Decision

 

[Roller_1]

Yeh none of rhat should effect the Nik i dont think

 

[eskys]

Yeh none of rhat should effect the Nik i dont think

I wouldn't have a clue

 

[Roller_1]

So much volatility around still.

It is also interesting that a lot of the big moves lately have come after lunch, the stock market reopens at 1 PM SA time and lately around 1-1:30 price has taken off.

A few levels marked up on the chart that I will be keeping an eye on


View attachment 158198

Levels were great once again, but failed to fully capitalise on the volatility and movement. I was in long on the first touch of the lower zone, but I let a biased creep into my mind that the big run up was over. Probably due to my post above. So took profits way too early.

I was then in short (which took me a couple of attempts) on the test of the open but wasn't quick enough to take profits at my second zone I have marked up. So at this stage I was sitting on a loss.…

I wasn't at the PC when we tagged the upper zone but I caught most of the afternoon run down.

I would honestly be better setting a limit order and a profit target and letting it go, too much micromanaging

 

[peter2]

I would honestly be better setting a limit order and a profit target and letting it go, too much micromanaging

I'm the same, so what are we going to do about this?
It's a problem that we must fix in order to earn more.

 

[Roller_1]

Price has pulled back into the mid-range of this larger consolidation, I think it might be due for a pullback on the larger timeframes. To try and reduce micromanaging. There are only two short options I have today is a test and a failure at the top red box, or if price breaks straight down I will be looking for a pop off of either of those two lower levels for a chance to get in short.

Price could also want to push up, so if we get above the first red box and it is holding I will look to trade along the levels above

Today if I lose money I don't really care I just want to try stick to this plan

My first target for the short side is those levels where I am looking for a pop, I will take at least half of the position off here.

 

[Roller_1]

I'm the same, so what are we going to do about this?
It's a problem that we must fix in order to earn more.

Hi Peter,

On my side I believe it is because I've been trying to limit my daily losses so to do this I have been scaling in. Entering half the position at a level and then looking to re-enter if I think it is going to go in my favour. But this causes a few problems for me I found, FOMO and also chasing price.

It seems to me if I have my initial bias wrong then I am almost better off just accepting my initial loss and walking away waiting for tomorrow. I find it hard to flip.

Even reading back over the plan I have written above it is very focused on the short side, even though the Nikkei is in the most bullish environment for possibly decades. As soon as I see some consolidation I start thinking distribution, and the big short opportunities.

I think over the next few weeks I just need to set a plan and just trade that for better or worse. What are your thoughts?

 

[Roller_1]

Price has pulled back into the mid-range of this larger consolidation, I think it might be due for a pullback on the larger timeframes. To try and reduce micromanaging. There are only two short options I have today is a test and a failure at the top red box, or if price breaks straight down I will be looking for a pop off of either of those two lower levels for a chance to get in short.

Price could also want to push up, so if we get above the first red box and it is holding I will look to trade along the levels above

Today if I lose money I don't really care I just want to try stick to this plan

My first target for the short side is those levels where I am looking for a pop, I will take at least half of the position off here.



View attachment 158260

We got the drop, and then the pop. I actually got stopped out once entering short a bit too early, but I entered again at the red line. Looking for a larger drop below this consolidation area. But I did not realise that there was a BOJ decision today. So I took my profits on this trade.

Hindsight says I should have entered on the pop, but oh well. A good read anyway

I wasn't 100% sure what time the news was coming out so i closed. I still think it might break down but I will let it go today I think at least until the decision

 

[eskys]

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 1:00 pm: Japan Interest Rate Decision
• 12:00 am: US Consumer Sentiment

Market Index, Roller

 

[eskys]

Morning Wrap: S&P 500 rallies to 14-month high, gas prices pop, ASX 200 to rise

ASX 200 futures are trading 29 points higher, up 0.40% as of 8:20 am AEST.

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[Roller_1]

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 1:00 pm: Japan Interest Rate Decision
• 12:00 am: US Consumer Sentiment

Market Index, Roller

Cheers,

For some reason my news site said N/A

 

[Roller_1]

Price still refuses to break any levels to the downside.

Although overnight we pushed up through this daily resistance, but close below it. Possible upthrust type move. This is a level of be watching for clues about how this session will unfold.

Even though on Friday I had a loss I stuck to my plans and only played my levels. Which is a positive

 

[Roller_1]

This is the exact move I was after, but there was no chance at all be getting in the morning. Well not what I was looking for anyway. I wanted a break below and then even just a slight pullback not a full retest but even just on the three minute chart a slight pullback but there was none.

In the mid morning bounce I was looking for a bit deeper and hoping it would push up a bit after lunch reopened before the dump but once again I missed it. This caused all kinds of mistakes. I was too eager to get the bottom and chop myself up a bit.

I am getting the reads but not the execution.

I think these are the things I need to focus on.
1. If I miss a move just accept it and not get sucked into revenge trading and trying to catch up.
2. If my read on the day is wrong don't take multiple losses attempting the same thing.

This will help minimise my daily losses, or if I've missed the move as in number one, in theory not take a loss that day at all. Such as what happened today

If this breaks down to the downside hopefully tomorrow there will be a pullback into the consolidation around current levels for another chance to get short. But it is hard to know what levels will be available until that time

 

[Roller_1]

US holiday overnight so no real movement.

There is still no higher timeframe levels that have been broken to the downside, so trend is still up but momentum has definitely stalled. Be looking for a break of the zone below current price. If it continues up that is fine
]

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Hi Roller, do you use a US, Aus or Euro broker for futures? thanks.

 

[Roller_1]

I'm not live but using IB as data provider