Australian Federal Election - 2022

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just remember Comrades that anyone is capable of becoming Prime Minister.

And that most Politicians on achieving power become bastards.

gg

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

Just remember Comrades that anyone is capable of becoming Prime Minister.

And that most Politicians on achieving power become bastards.

gg

Power corrupts and absolute Power corrupts absolutely.

Greens 12% with 1.68% swing.
Independents 5.52% with 2.15% swing.
One Nation 5% with 1.89% swing.
UAP 4.27% with .84% swing.

Any of that likely to bring uncertainty into the Market tomorrow?

 

[SirRumpole]

It's an imperfect correlation but when the economy's doing nicely the concerns of the population shift toward more "Left" issues. When the economy's not doing well the concern comes firmly back to the economy and often sees a shift to the "Right".

I have to disagree there, sort of.

Traditionally when times were good, the people wanted government 'out of their faces' , low taxes and less regulation so they tended towards conservative governments, but when things went bad they turned to the social safety net that Left Wing parties provided.

There would have to be some disagreement as to whether the economy is 'doing well' at the moment. Sure the headline figure of low unemployment looks good, but if you shut the borders for two years and dry up the imported labor market then obviously employers have to make do with local workers and unemployment will fall. The battle over low wages is a sign that the electorate is concerned over rising costs and how they are going to keep up. A Right Wing government is not going to do anything proactive about wages, they would leave it to 'the market' while importing cheap labour to keep wages down, so the nervous lower/middle wage earners go for the social safety net of Labor to increase wages even though Labor's promises around that area were pretty thin.

The reason I said 'sort of' is the climate change debate which has shifted the voting trends considerably. The well off who don't have to worry as much about putting food on the table are more concerned about it which is not what you would expect from Conservative voters.

The Liberals thought that their traditional base were mostly climate change sceptics and totally mismanaged their response and it cost them, but most of that vote went to Indies and the Greens, not Labor. Labor did ok to put up a reasonable CC response without losing their inner city/working class seats but that is an area that they will have to address to stop bleeding away of their traditional base.

'Working class' seats would be a prime target for populist parties like One Nation if Labor isn't careful and energy prices go up.

Also if the climate change situation is addressed by a Labor government the the 'concerned well off' may well drift back to the Conservatives and Labor would be disadvantaged by their own success.

Just my opinion.

 

[moXJO]

Dutton as liberal leader.... good luck with that.

 

[sptrawler]

Dutton as liberal leader.... good luck with that.

Yes he is about as electable as Bill.

 

[sptrawler]

@SirRumpole the inner city elites have done it again, all the best with the electricity prices.
It is becoming quite interesting how the working class is moving right and the wealthy are moving to the left.

 

[moXJO]

Yes he is about as electable as Bill.

For the left, he is evil incarnate. While he is leading it will keep the left mobilised against liberal.

 

[sptrawler]

For the left, he is evil incarnate. While he is leading it will keep the left mobilised against liberal.

The left which is become heavily influenced by the wealthy, will stay leaning that way until they start losing money, then there will be a swing back to the right.
At the moment the wealthy are doing fine they had jobkeeper, the market is booming, they cant get enough workers, so they are smuggly sitting back ordering their Porsche Taycan and telling everyone at the dinner party how green they are.
Wait and see how they vote when it goes pear shaped and their profits start crumbling. Lol

 

[SirRumpole]

@SirRumpole the inner city elites have done it again, all the best with the electricity prices.
It is becoming quite interesting how the working class is moving right and the wealthy are moving to the left.

Labor could still get over the line with a majority, but the message has been sent, no one can rely on 'heartland ' votes any more.

 

[SirRumpole]

Dutton as liberal leader.... good luck with that.

Angus Taylor and Dan Teghan were mentioned too.

Are they really that desperate ? They might end up with Alan Tudge.

 

[sptrawler]

Labor could still get over the line with a majority, but the message has been sent, no one can rely on 'heartland ' votes any more.

This map sums it up beautifully IMO, Labor heartland. ?

 

[sptrawler]

‘Morrison’s defeat suits me very well’​

France’s outgoing foreign affairs minister publicly welcomes ‘incompetent’ Scott Morrison’s defeat, as AUKUS continues to irk.


I guess the French diesel subs will be back in play. ?

 

[Knobby22]

Liberal Simon Birmingham said that the Liberals were out of touch and didn’t take in people's concerns.

He also said if you don't let the young own houses then you can't expect them to vote conservative.

Look at the voting, it's mainly young vs old.

 

[sptrawler]

Liberal Simon Birmingham said that the Liberals were out of touch and didn’t take in people's concerns.

He also said if you don't let the young own houses then you can't expect them to vote conservative.

Look at the voting, it's mainly young vs old.

From the map it looks like young Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane/Perth/ Adelaide/Hobart Vs the rest of Australia.
Updated map, it looks like city elites Vs the bush dwellers.

 

[Knobby22]

From the map it looks like young Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane Vs the rest of Australia.

That's where the young people live.
What about Perth and Adelaide?
That map looks out of date.

 

[sptrawler]

That's where the young people live.
What about Perth and Adelaide?

Just updated with the new map.
That's where the young barista's and service industry workers live, the work that pays the bills is in the regions, you know where they have a shortage of 'workers'. .

 

[Knobby22]

Just updated with the new map.
That's where the young barista's live, the work that pays the bills is in the regions.

Melbourne has CSL, Australia's largest company and a huge biotech sector that brings in millions to Australia.
Queensland has manufacturing plants in steel, aluminium.

You can sneer at the young and call them baristas if you like. Sounds like Newscorp. In my view the Liberals listening to Murdoch media was their big mistake. We aren't American.

 

[sptrawler]

Melbourne has CSL, Australia's largest company and a huge biotech sector that brings in millions to Australia.
Queensland has manufacturing plants in steel, aluminium.

You can sneer at the young and call them baristas if you like. Sounds like Newscorp. In my view the Liberals listening to Murdoch media was their big mistake. We aren't American.

The problem is, if you focus your whole political system, to appease the city people you will end up just like America. Where the rich live in the Cities and the working class end up having to move further and further out and those who live in tbe regions, doing the mining and farming, miss out all together.
How do you think they feel, when the whole narrative and media/ political focus is about how they can pay for someone in Sydney to be able to afford a $1m property.
Stereotyping people because they have different views to you, isn't the way forward either IMO.

 

[Smurf1976]

Melbourne has CSL, Australia's largest company and a huge biotech sector that brings in millions to Australia.
Queensland has manufacturing plants in steel, aluminium.

Melbourne might have that but as a whole, Victoria is by far the worst performing state on a per capita basis when it comes to bringing money into the country. In next worst place is NSW.

At the other end of the spectrum is WA followed by Queensland.

SA and Tas both sit in the middle. Not great contributors but not the drain that many would imagine either. They’re muddling along, real product for export does come out of both states albeit not on the scale of WA or Qld.

There’s a divide between Australia’s economic basis and its politics.

Not intending to throw stones there as per my previous comment.

 

[sptrawler]

Melbourne has CSL, Australia's largest company and a huge biotech sector that brings in millions to Australia.
Queensland has manufacturing plants in steel, aluminium.

You can sneer at the young and call them baristas if you like.

By the way I wasn't sneering at baristas or service industry/hospitality workers, how much of the Melbourne/Sydney youth work in that sector as opposed to working for CSL/biotech/steel and aluminium? I was stating a fact.

The 10 Biggest Industries by Employment in Australia

• Community Services in Australia. ...
• Consumer Goods Retailing in Australia. ...
• Temporary Staff Services in Australia. ...
• Public General Hospitals in Australia. ...
• Supermarkets and Grocery Stores in Australia. ...
• Aged Care Residential Services in Australia. ...
• Government Schools in Australia.

AS for not being like America, we are certainly heading that way, the rich get richer and the worker gets screwed.

The statistic shows the distribution of the workforce across economic sectors in the United States from 2009 to 2019. In 2019, 1.36 percent of the workforce in the US was employed in agriculture, 19.91 percent in industry and 78.74 percent in services. See U.S. GDP per capita for more information.