Australian Federal Election - 2022

[Smurf1976]

Not in my world! Family members suffered financial losses in excess of $20k relating to travel plans, and I ended up in hospital emergency.

Acknowledged that individuals have suffered and sorry to hear of your hospitalisation. Hope you're OK now....

Personally well yes it did have some impacts no denying that. Stopped me doing x, y and z. More seriously, a member of my family passed away from unrelated causes and the pandemic did prevent me visiting them in their final hours. That's an impact I won't forget.

That said though well just two years after it started it was effectively over and whilst individuals
certainly have scars, for society overall life looks pretty normal and most have gotten through. Official unemployment's at 4% (yes I know the number's cooked but it always has been to some extent), the stock market has bounced back and so on. Crucially from a political perspective, the pandemic is no longer the focus - just two years after it started and it's not even dominating the news anymore.

It's not comparable to the "1991" recession that was a solid 6 or so years until real world improvement was apparent to ordinary people and with the key political focus being firmly economic for the next decade.

How is that relevant? It was either a crisis, or it was not!

Depending on which version you accept, the pandemic was either a natural occurrence or was due to the actions of the Chinese government. I'm not arguing which is the truth, only noting that those are the two versions of events.

Point being it wasn't an issue that the Australian Government could be blamed for having caused. An inadequate response perhaps yes but the public didn't see it as the underlying cause as such.

Versus (hypothetically) if one of the big banks were to collapse, interest rates surge or if we get unemployment over 10%. Government either is to blame, or will be perceived as to blame, and will pay a high price politically should something like that occur.

The next government's been handed a few grenades with the pin already pulled in my view:

Interest rates are one. Politicians don't set them but in the minds of many it's a matter for government.

Housing market is another.

Inflation and living costs are another.

Budget deficit another.

Petrol excise in particular is a poison pill politically since it's the ultimately symbolic consumer price. Send a TV camera crew out to get some stock footage of inflation and they'll come back with video of a petrol pump with the counter ticking over that's a given. Can't get more symbolic than that. For Labor in particular that's a problem if they win. Put the excise back up and I've no doubt whatsoever that in 2025 we'll hear plenty about "Labor doubled petrol".

 

[SirRumpole]

Acknowledged that individuals have suffered and sorry to hear of your hospitalisation. Hope you're OK now....

Personally well yes it did have some impacts no denying that. Stopped me doing x, y and z. More seriously, a member of my family passed away from unrelated causes and the pandemic did prevent me visiting them in their final hours. That's an impact I won't forget.

That said though well just two years after it started it was effectively over and whilst individuals
certainly have scars, for society overall life looks pretty normal and most have gotten through. Official unemployment's at 4% (yes I know the number's cooked but it always has been to some extent), the stock market has bounced back and so on. Crucially from a political perspective, the pandemic is no longer the focus - just two years after it started and it's not even dominating the news anymore.

It's not comparable to the "1991" recession that was a solid 6 or so years until real world improvement was apparent to ordinary people and with the key political focus being firmly economic for the next decade.



Depending on which version you accept, the pandemic was either a natural occurrence or was due to the actions of the Chinese government. I'm not arguing which is the truth, only noting that those are the two versions of events.

Point being it wasn't an issue that the Australian Government could be blamed for having caused. An inadequate response perhaps yes but the public didn't see it as the underlying cause as such.

Versus (hypothetically) if one of the big banks were to collapse, interest rates surge or if we get unemployment over 10%. Government either is to blame, or will be perceived as to blame, and will pay a high price politically should something like that occur.

The next government's been handed a few grenades with the pin already pulled in my view:

Interest rates are one. Politicians don't set them but in the minds of many it's a matter for government.

Housing market is another.

Inflation and living costs are another.

Budget deficit another.

Petrol excise in particular is a poison pill politically since it's the ultimately symbolic consumer price. Send a TV camera crew out to get some stock footage of inflation and they'll come back with video of a petrol pump with the counter ticking over that's a given. Can't get more symbolic than that. For Labor in particular that's a problem if they win. Put the excise back up and I've no doubt whatsoever that in 2025 we'll hear plenty about "Labor doubled petrol".

Power prices and the future of the industry is a big one for me.

I can't see that the Coalition has anything resembling a plan for the orderly transition to renewables while keeping prices down and while Labor may not do any better at least they deserve the chance to try imho.

 

[Smurf1976]

Power prices and the future of the industry is a big one for me.

I sort-of implied that one in the bit about living costs. Didn't want to be focusing only on one issue....

But yes, if we look at the past 24 hours for the NEM then the average price was $399.35 per MWh.

Putting that into perspective, well even $100 would be getting a bit high. Almost $400 is off the charts as a daily figure.

Past 7 days it's a bit better but not greatly. $310.73 is still far too high indeed at that price wholesale is higher than retail which is completely unsustainable.

Same with gas, we're now seeing spot prices stuck well into the 30's $ per GJ versus $6 - $8 last year so a huge price jump there.

The real impact though isn't household bills but on general inflation. Households use 22.8% of electricity nationally and 10.6% of the gas (Australian Government statistics in both cases). Business using the rest is going to be hiking the price of practically everything in order to cover the costs. Either that or what's left of manufacturing just goes offshore.

Oil's another since whilst consumers do buy petrol, a pretty substantial portion of total consumption is for business use of some sort be it farming, construction machinery, trucks, rail, shipping, industrial furnaces, aircraft, remote power generation, chemicals or whatever. Plus of course many businesses do have a car fleet.

So quite an impact with all this and that's just the economics. We're really up the creek if the diesel stops turning up from overseas or the lights go out.

 

[SirRumpole]

I sort-of implied that one in the bit about living costs. Didn't want to be focusing only on one issue....

But yes, if we look at the past 24 hours for the NEM then the average price was $399.35 per MWh.

Putting that into perspective, well even $100 would be getting a bit high. Almost $400 is off the charts as a daily figure.

Past 7 days it's a bit better but not greatly. $310.73 is still far too high indeed at that price wholesale is higher than retail which is completely unsustainable.

Same with gas, we're now seeing spot prices stuck well into the 30's $ per GJ versus $6 - $8 last year so a huge price jump there.

The real impact though isn't household bills but on general inflation. Households use 22.8% of electricity nationally and 10.6% of the gas (Australian Government statistics in both cases). Business using the rest is going to be hiking the price of practically everything in order to cover the costs. Either that or what's left of manufacturing just goes offshore.

Oil's another since whilst consumers do buy petrol, a pretty substantial portion of total consumption is for business use of some sort be it farming, construction machinery, trucks, rail, shipping, industrial furnaces, aircraft, remote power generation, chemicals or whatever. Plus of course many businesses do have a car fleet.

So quite an impact with all this and that's just the economics. We're really up the creek if the diesel stops turning up from overseas or the lights go out.

Very few politicians seem to be advocating a reservation policy for coal , oil and gas , but that's one thing we need in the short term at least to smooth out the fluctuations in prices of those commodities.

 

[rederob]

It's not comparable to the "1991" recession that was a solid 6 or so years until real world improvement was apparent to ordinary people and with the key political focus being firmly economic for the next decade.

Again, not really the issue as it's about the government's response to a crisis. What exactly occurred, ie., what did we do back then that was so different?

Point being it wasn't an issue that the Australian Government could be blamed for having caused. An inadequate response perhaps yes but the public didn't see it as the underlying cause as such.

But this is about the response to a crisis as distinct from its cause or nature.

In my lifetime I cannot think of more measures from government at both levels that were as fiscally damaging, socially disruptive, and closed international and domestic borders.

Good leadership in a crisis typically ensures a good ballot box outcome, as McGowan discovered.
As I said previously, contrast that with Morrison who created division between the feds and States, and could not get National Cabinet to work effectively. We saw various Premiers and Health Ministers spout "expert health advice" that was inconsistent and confusing. And we also had an exceptionally poor federal messaging program. Morrison had years of opportunity to bring the nation together and get State/Territory leaders on the same page. But he stuffed that up, just as he has stuffed up his response to so many critical matters such as bushfires, quarantine arrangements, energy security and climate change.
A defining event of Morrison's present term was the Ruby Princess fiasco. To many it set the tone for Morrison's subsequent actions on most matters. Central to that is to first dismiss a matter and hope it goes away. Failing that, blame someone or something else. And if that doesn't work, then pretend it was always under control, as per the recent Solomon Islands incident.
Bolted on voters will be as blind as Putin's followers. But there is a polled majority that has seen through his deceptions and incompetence and are likely to vote him out of office.

 

[Knobby22]

If the Libs get up it will be due to their genius. The three prongs:

1. 50K for first home buyers, that's anyone who hasn't bought a house including 40 year olds who thought they had missed the boat. Easy to understand and its from Super. Money today instead of in the future, easy sell. Labors scheme is complex and convoluted and almost no one understands it.

2. Help for Baby Boomers/Gen x. They can sell their family home and get a big tax break to move to something more reasonable and do it at a younger age. Show me the money. As Keating said "I always back self interest".

3. Morrison is really contrite. I know I shouldn't have had that holiday and sure I haven't ben perfect but I will try harder. (Gee he seems genuine lets give him another chance).

Genius.
(Is it Morrisons genius? He was a marketing guy.)

 

[PZ99]

Genius vs dunce.... for me that's how it's panning out. Hung Parliament

Polling practically the same now as in 2019.

 

[SirRumpole]

If the Libs get up it will be due to their genius. The three prongs:

1. 50K for first home buyers, that's anyone who hasn't bought a house including 40 year olds who thought they had missed the boat. Easy to understand and its from Super. Money today instead of in the future, easy sell. Labors scheme is complex and convoluted and almost no one understands it.

2. Help for Baby Boomers/Gen x. They can sell their family home and get a big tax break to move to something more reasonable and do it at a younger age. Show me the money. As Keating said "I always back self interest".

3. Morrison is really contrite. I know I shouldn't have had that holiday and sure I haven't ben perfect but I will try harder. (Gee he seems genuine lets give him another chance).

Genius.
(Is it Morrisons genius? He was a marketing guy.)

So the Libs are going to cut the public service, after calling them 'heroes' during the pandemic.

Less doctors, nurses and teachers to carry the burden of future pandemics which there will be, it's not over yet.

Good scare tactic territory for Labor.

 

[sptrawler]

If the Libs get up it will be due to their genius. The three prongs:

You may be right, it still will mean we would tread water for another 3 years, while the media and Morrison continue their petty fights.

1. 50K for first home buyers, that's anyone who hasn't bought a house including 40 year olds who thought they had missed the boat. Easy to understand and its from Super. Money today instead of in the future, easy sell. Labors scheme is complex and convoluted and almost no one understands it.

That is very much like the Singapore model, where the younger generation can use a part of their super to purchase an appartment, the only difference is the Govt there own the properties. Which is a major difference IMO.
But owning a house, or even paying for one rather than paying rent is better for young people than saving money for when they turn 67 years old.
Firstly they might not live to 67 and secondly who is to say when they do get there they can remove the money to buy a house, the rules can and will change. But owning your own house is always going to save you money, as you always need shelter.

2. Help for Baby Boomers/Gen x. They can sell their family home and get a big tax break to move to something more reasonable and do it at a younger age. Show me the money. As Keating said "I always back self interest".

That should take some of the boomers off the pension, rather than being on the pension and sitting in the multi million dollar McMansion. So it probably is a positive.
I would rather they used the carrot and the stick, rather than just the carrot, they should include the family home in the pension asset test. Just my opinion.

3. Morrison is really contrite. I know I shouldn't have had that holiday and sure I haven't ben perfect but I will try harder. (Gee he seems genuine lets give him another chance).

IMO Morrison is like most people of strong beliefs, obnoxious, self opinionated, arrogant and have a very unattractive personality.
But he is a quick thinker and obviously intelligent, he would make a boss that not many like working for.

Genius.
(Is it Morrisons genius? He was a marketing guy.)

Time will tell.

 

[IFocus]

If the Libs get up it will be due to their genius. The three prongs:

1. 50K for first home buyers, that's anyone who hasn't bought a house including 40 year olds who thought they had missed the boat. Easy to understand and its from Super. Money today instead of in the future, easy sell. Labors scheme is complex and convoluted and almost no one understands it.

2. Help for Baby Boomers/Gen x. They can sell their family home and get a big tax break to move to something more reasonable and do it at a younger age. Show me the money. As Keating said "I always back self interest".

3. Morrison is really contrite. I know I shouldn't have had that holiday and sure I haven't ben perfect but I will try harder. (Gee he seems genuine lets give him another chance).

Genius.
(Is it Morrisons genius? He was a marketing guy.)

By far and away Morrison is the best political election campaigner / spruiker / sound bite giver / truthful answer dodger and people buy it.

Albanese is not even in the same room, to think a government as bad as Morrisons is even in the race is testament to Morrisons skills and Albanese's blandness which would be fine if Morrison actually had a grand vision other than him being PM.

Still if Morison gets up I think it will damage the Libs longer term he wont change and next election people will be waiting with baseball bats arla Queensland style IMHO.

 

[sptrawler]

By far and away Morrison is the best political election campaigner / spruiker / sound bite giver / truthful answer dodger and people buy it.

Albanese is not even in the same room, to think a government as bad as Morrisons is even in the race is testament to Morrisons skills and Albanese's blandness which would be fine if Morrison actually had a grand vision other than him being PM.

Still if Morison gets up I think it will damage the Libs longer term he wont change and next election people will be waiting with baseball bats arla Queensland style IMHO.

Agree with you completely, I think that a lot of the problem is, Morrison copping constant criticism keeps people thinking on the issues and how they have been handled.
Which in turn gives people a lot of time to reflect on the issues, then people gradually process what was originally an emotional reaction to a more measured and thoughtful way of looking at the issue.
IMO the media constantly hammering away, would have had the effect of polarising the electorate, which way it has polarised the electorate will show on election day.
But one thing for sure IMO, the media has been the make or break of Scomo, as I said it would be in the early stages of his tenure.
The media bashing of Scomo has been relentless, but sometimes that can drive an opposing outcome, to what they wish for.
6 million early voters already, tells us that people have already made up their minds in huge numbers, whether the media was successful or blew their feet off remains to be seen. Obviously the silent majority have made their mind up already.
But @IFocus , I do love hating the media and I think they have actually helped him more than hurt him, the general public was over the coalition last election, Labor didn't need the media to help them the coalition would have been gone anyway
Just dumb ar$e media.

 

[SirRumpole]

You may be right, it still will mean we would tread water for another 3 years, while the media and Morrison continue their petty fights.

That is very much like the Singapore model, where the younger generation can use a part of their super to purchase an appartment, the only difference is the Govt there own the properties. Which is a major difference IMO.
But owning a house, or even paying for one rather than paying rent is better for young people than saving money for when they turn 67 years old.
Firstly they might not live to 67 and secondly who is to say when they do get there they can remove the money to buy a house, the rules can and will change. But owning your own house is always going to save you money, as you always need shelter.


That should take some of the boomers off the pension, rather than being on the pension and sitting in the multi million dollar McMansion. So it probably is a positive.
I would rather they used the carrot and the stick, rather than just the carrot, they should include the family home in the pension asset test. Just my opinion.


IMO Morrison is like most people of strong beliefs, obnoxious, self opinionated, arrogant and have a very unattractive personality.
But he is a quick thinker and obviously intelligent, he would make a boss that not many like working for.

Time will tell.

The policy sounds a fraud to me. It doesn't add to the supply and therefore pushes prices up, making houses even more unaffordable.

Anyone under 40 won't have the super balance required anyway, those over 40 have probably already got one or will find the price of their prospective house has gone up by about $40k.

The number of people it will actually benefit is extremely small, but it sounds attractive to people who don't bother doing the numbers.

Read this before using your super to buy a house

Prime Minister Scott Morrison described the controversial policy as a game-changer, but financial advisers and economists aren’t so sure.

www.afr.com

 

[wayneL]

Perhaps with the failure of interventionist housing policies over decades, we might give the Austrians a go?

 

[Knobby22]

Perhaps with the failure of interventionist housing policies over decades, we might give the Austrians a go

No hope unfortunately, we can't have a policy that could cause lower house prices and hurt investors.

Anyway , we have room to move, only the second highest housing market on earth, we need to take no. 1 spot. I think the way Hong Kong is going we can get there. Pretty good effort considering how much empty land there is in Australia.

The Most Expensive Housing Markets Globally By “Median Multiple” (2022)

• Hong Kong, China – 23.2.
• Sydney, Australia – 15.3.
• Vancouver, Canada – 13.3.

Sydney Is Now The World's 2nd Most Expensive Housing Market

New data confirms both Sydney and Melbourne are the second and fifth most expensive housing markets in the entire world by "median multiple."

www.bosshunting.com.au

If only I was rich enough to afford this $20 million trophy home sold recently.

 

[sptrawler]

No hope unfortunately, we can't have a policy that could cause lower house prices and hurt investors.

Anyway , we have room to move, only the second highest housing market on earth, we need to take no. 1 spot. I think the way Hong Kong is going we can get there. Pretty good effort considering how much empty land there is in Australia.

The Most Expensive Housing Markets Globally By “Median Multiple” (2022)

• Hong Kong, China – 23.2.
• Sydney, Australia – 15.3.
• Vancouver, Canada – 13.3.

Sydney Is Now The World's 2nd Most Expensive Housing Market

New data confirms both Sydney and Melbourne are the second and fifth most expensive housing markets in the entire world by "median multiple."

www.bosshunting.com.au

If only I was rich enough to afford this $20 million trophy home sold recently.

View attachment 141831

Spot on Knobby, Sydney hose prices are bizarre, why does everyone want to live there and are prepared to pay anything just to do it?

It has to be the fact that they think they will be able to flip it for a profit, so it is seen a sure thing, smells of a ponzi to me, sooner or later the music has to stop and someone will be left carrying the parcel.

People aren't being forced into buying and bidding up these stupid prices, what the hell is going on.

 

[SirRumpole]

Spot on Knobby, Sydney hose prices are bizarre, why does everyone want to live there and are prepared to pay anything just to do it?

It has to be the fact that they think they will be able to flip it for a profit, so it is seen a sure thing, smells of a ponzi to me, sooner or later the music has to stop and someone will be left carrying the parcel.

People aren't being forced into buying and bidding up these stupid prices, what the hell is going on.

F.O.M.O.

 

[sptrawler]

F.O.M.O.

Missing out on what? a millstone around your neck and probably your kids necks as well.
I mean seriously some people have a reason why they can't possibly leave Sydney and relocate, maybe they have the contract to paint the harbour bridge, but most would have no reason why they can't move to another place and settle there where prices are cheaper, as Knobby says Australia has a hell of a lot of empty land and cheap cities..
If the majority moved out, the prices would collapse, IMO it is either an ego trip, plain stupidity, or greed that is driving the prices.

 

[PZ99]

It's where the good jobs are.

 

[sptrawler]

It's where the good jobs are.

They certainly must be, because the repayments must be eye watering.
When I was working, I had sleepless nights worrying about a $200k line of credit, to buy shares with.

 

[SirRumpole]

It's where the good jobs are.

Thats it. Regional areas are mostly only good for farmers or miners.