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All comes down to how many get infected.
We may under shoot the 200k mark by a lot.
Maybe...If you believe the Son of God, 100-200k would be a great outcome. This from the same xxxx who a mere six weeks ago was saying it was all a hoax and a beat up and could just disappear in a wisp with some magical thinking.
Unfortunately I don't think the US will be fortunate enough to get away with the lower end of possibilities. Why ?
1) Because of the failure to prepare for this event as the CDC had wanted. With this failure essential resources like masks, ventilators, PPE gear are now in critically short supply and will compromise protection procedures
2) Because of the refusal to take swift testing and isolation procedures earlier, the virus has spread uncontrollably in many communities. Tackling this will require the type of ruthless lockdowns only the Chinese had the stomach to do. Very unlikely to happen in the US.
3) Even at this stage there are very mixed messages across the US on the need to isolate. Business is still pushing to stay open as long as possible regardless of the consequences
4) The overall health of the US particularly the poorest is BAD. Obesity is rampant and that is an element in causing serious complications with the virus.
5) The US health system is a xxxxing nightmare. As a for profit system it will let people die on the streets and infect everyone else. To make matters worse the loss of millions of jobs will stop health insurance for millions and result in them suffering the same fate as the ones who didn't have insurance in the first place.
6) In any case the current health system will be completely unable to cope with the simultaneous demands of every state in crisis. This is Italy, Spain and China x 100
7) Donald Trump is totally incapable of bringing the country together to face this crisis. He still insists on being adored and attacks any hint of criticism. And this crisis is probably just starting. ScoMo looks positively Churchillin in comparison
8) The divisions across the country are just so dangerous. The evangelicals, the Far Righters, the Billionaires who can only see as far as their dollars. At a time when the country needs to somehow pull together ... it looks really tough.
From 74 cases to 188,000 in 30 days with a full head of steam. Maybe now is the time to short the DOW ?
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/11/...ion-cut-cdc-public-health-funding-coronavirus
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...-insurance-crisis-is-coming-so-heres-an-idea/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States
https://easo.org/covid-19-and-obesity/