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GTP - Great Southern Plantations

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Rafa

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Was just wondering if anyone out there holds GTP.

It has fallen from around $5 to $3.20 in a month, soon after it announced it was going to acquire some land up north (in Tiwi Islands) and diversify into cattle!

As a shareholder I was unpleasantly surprised with these moves, but at the same time, I am shocked at the massive fall in the share value, given the investments weren't substantial.

Having had it since the price was in the mid $2 range, i am still up!
Be interested to hear your thoughts, information, etc... Especially fundamental information... I know technically I should have sold the damn thing ages ago!

Thanks

R.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

market sentiment has definitely turned against most stocks in this sector!

it amazes me constantly how things change in an instant...
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Its like the weather.

You can stand in the rain or get out of it!-----------
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

TIM similarly affected. $2.35 down to $1.70 (The getting out of the rain analogy is unusual for agristocks: surely the more rain the better :D ) I'm not in GTP I got out on a big retracement a long time ago when they were about $1.80. Wasn't I smart? :banghead:
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

silent knight said:
TIM similarly affected. $2.35 down to $1.70 (The getting out of the rain analogy is unusual for agristocks: surely the more rain the better :D ) I'm not in GTP I got out on a big retracement a long time ago when they were about $1.80. Wasn't I smart? :banghead:
Click to expand...

I attended a shareholder meeting in Albury not long ago and was NOT happy with the sudden announcement and hype about diversifying into relatively more risky operations in the tropics (cyclones, El Ninjo etc doncha know!) - so I promptly sold out all my GTP stock at $4.85 on a hunch. Had been picking up parcels of GTP from $3.25 to $4.25 so given the current price it has plunged to (I'm not surprised really) - I'M ECSTATIC!!!

In The Age Of Jitters, it seems that companies that take on additional risk when there seems to be no good reason to do so get pummelled... they had been apparently performing so well with a relatively safe southern Australia plantation scheme that it seems silly IMO to get greedy and buy into more risky areas of the planet. They borrowed for risk rather than building on a sound capital base as they had been doing?

Cheers,

AJ
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

GTP I think will suffer.

Investors won't invest much into the trees anymore as i believe the capital gain boom has ended and now tax rates are reducing there is less incentive to buy into these trees and other tax effective investments. Super surcharge was another big seller for them that they used in many of their seminars to advisers and that has been scraped as well.

Also can't invest in the copice of the trees and investors will not receive carbon credits going forward. i'd be vary wary of this stock. This years results should be excellent next years i think it will really suffer.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Rafa said:
market sentiment has definitely turned against most stocks in this sector!...
Click to expand...
Yabbut which sector? GTP is Diversified Financials; TIM is Materials. Both are up this morning.

TIM has an announcement this morning welcoming a Budget provision that extends of forestry pre-payment legislation to 2008. That - I mean the extension, not TIM's welcome - might explain a rise in the share price of forestry companies. But TIM now derives 60% of its revenue from agricultural businesses other than forestry. Go figger.

Ghoti

Edited to add: I hold TIM
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Today's announcement sounds quite positive and I see the stock has jumped at least a bit.

What about what was at least my original reason for buying GTP: i.e. that there will in the future be a worldwide shortage of pulp for paper?

My original purchase was at 54 cents then more at 84 cents some years ago.
I am holding on, despite recent downturns as I believe in the stock in the long term.

Comments?


Julia
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

That was a great pickup at such low levels Julia...

I guess its still way to early to see if the uptrend is going to continue...
My estimate is that it needs to cross $4 to get back above the uptrend started from early 2003.

I am a bit concerned that GTP has diversified into other areas plantation timber..... besides cattle, they even have vineyards i beleive, and we all know how badly the grape business is doing in general!

I think AussieJeff's comment about the Age of Jitters is very valid. This sort of fall seems more than a jitter to me...

R.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Its back to the $4 level, I wonder if any TA experts out there can analyse this one for me...

There hasn't been any new developements to indicate why the stock took such a hammering in the first place (falling 35%), and besides the budget changes announced, nothing really to indicate why its gone up 20% since then either!

I, for one, am well confused!
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Hi Rafa

I'm also watching GTP closely. I'm no "expert", just very interested as I hold a fair chunk of my portfolio in this company. I haven't done any charting, but, having held the stock for several years, have noticed that it does seem to have a strong run up, then similarly sharp downturn, with the next runup reaching a new high. It usually seems to go up pre end of financial year, and, as you point out, the government confirming the tax advantages for the next two years will have helped. I've seen a couple of broker recommendations indicating a target price of (a) $5.26 and (b) $5.14.
I'm holding on to it for now but will think about selling half the holding at about the $5.00 mark. If it doesn't get there will hold the lot.


Is there anyone out there who may have done a chart for GTP over a few years?

Julia :)
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

GTP over a few years...
 

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Re: Great Southern Plantations..

GP - With thanks for the chart.

Do you have any comments on this stock?

Julia
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Julia,

Not really. I'm an almost purely technical trader, and know nothing about the fundamentals of the company or industry.

I'm currently holding some, bought last month for $3.67, but will sell them the moment they look like the current run up is finished. They're part of my trading portfolio, not investment portfolio.

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

I sold half of my gpt shares 4.88 but you have to happy with the way they have now recovered. If you have good quality shares with reliable earnings you have to hold them in times of fear etc .
Tom :rolleyes:
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Hi Tom

What do you plan to do with the other half of GTP you still hold? Do you have a sell price in mind, or are you intending to hold them over the longer term? Do you have some thoughts about how far the current run up will go?

Julia :
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

GreatPig,

Have you sold yet? at what price?

R.
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

Yes, for $3.94.

It may bounce back up after today, but given the current state of the XAO, I'm reducing my exposure a bit.

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: Great Southern Plantations..

What's happened to this today?

Down about 16% to $3.53 as I write.

GP
 

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