Your latest trade based on T/A

Hello...

I've been doing a stack of research on Technical Analysis. I've got the concepts down, and now its time to start practicing on my demo account, and possibly small amounts of real $$$'s with nice tight stops.

I was wondering if any of you long time technical traders can share with me your last few trades, both successful and unsuccessful.

I've been focusing on the ASX top 20, and have been watching telstra closely. IF the US markets stay stable tonight, i think telstra could be due to bounce. What do you think?

Hi GC, I do not qualify for comment as a "you long time technical traders" but in the absence of others replies thought I would offer this comment.

Tight money management is critical, but "nice tight stops" has cost me more that anything else so far, as it's surprising how you get a spike against you just before the move you wanted. You need to give it some room to move with wider stops at the expense of a small number of shares, thereby giving you the same dollar risk.

Edit: In relation to the chart, imho when using straight lines you have to let them fall where they land (if you know what I mean). If you draw such a line between 9/8 and 6/9 the top line should be horizontal at about the $4.44 mark. This would give you the makings of a nice ascending triangle, of which there is a lengthy thread on this forum.

I doubt if there will be much of a bounce on 11/9 if you get my drift. More likely the market will head south.

gregcourageous
I have no advice to give on Telstra except to say that I haven't had a buy signal on the stock since last decade and that I avoid stocks in a long term downtrend or sideways movement. I have no idea what TLS might do over the next year.

Some previous trades I have made are at;

http://drawdown.blogspot.com/2007/08/good-bad-and-ugly.html

best wishes

stevo

Here is one I suggested 2 nights ago. It activated yesterday...




BOTTOM LINE
10/9:
EW Trend: Up (?)
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
10/8:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

LAYMANS ANALYSIS

10/9:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 40 secs)
Prices have drifted lower off the intermediate highs that followed the sell off. The last review suggested that we could see $25.75 and that's exactly what we got, to the cent. There is one very notable pattern on this chart that offers up some very specific information and that is the price and volume activity on that major low mid last month. You can clearly see that this was panic selling because quite frankly there is no other way prices could move that distance in such a brief time. However, the conclusion we need to take away here is that the panic selling was met by buyers equal and stronger than that selling. The close of that specific session was well off the lows and the volume was ultra high. We need to think result and effort. High volume means a lot of effort. A lot of transactions. The result was a high close. So if we have a lot of effort and a high close we must objectively consider that demand, that is buyers, overwhelmed the panicked sellers. This background information offers no ambiguity. Its clearly bullish information. An aggressive buyer looking for a low risk/high reward trade could buy on a breach of today's high of $28.31 and place a protective stop at $27.95. This is what I will suggest for the Elliott Wave portfolio. A more passive trader could look to buy on penetration of $29.30 to allow inertia carry their position higher. If this analysis is correct, we should expect to see $32.00 again as a minimum.
10/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 13 secs)
Prices managed to push higher and funnily enough filled the gap before starting it course lower again. Patterns repeat time and again. Notice how the volume over the last week has been low? A low volume advance suggests "no demand" and today, with prices turning lower again, we have an increase in volume once again. There is now a good chance that we'll see prices start to move lower again now, but we must be careful of the background strength seen earlier this month. There was quite distinctive demand showing and we must assume it will reappear on another test. From a theoretical perspective we could continue to trade lower to $26.00 and if the broad global contagion persists especially with lending practices under close scrutiny we may well see it happen. An aggressive trader could look at short position on further weakness, but any signs of demand entering at those recent lows would be a signal to take defensive action.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

10/9:
The larger pattern unfolded in a 3-wave move and culminated in a clear blow-off low and thrust back just as quick. This is impulsive activity and seeing as its been followed by a smaller 3-wave decline would should expect that we've now witnessed a wave-ii or -b low. The minimum upside target is $32.06 with further gains possible if the broader market can shake off its blues. The wave equality of this most recent 3-wave move is almost exact in both time and price. Wave-c extended 3c further but both waves took 3-days apiece to complete. The depth of the retracement is a little shy of what is normally expected just missing out on tagging the 50.0% level. Today's weakness also partially filled a gap left on the way higher. A hit of the 50.0% retracement level would have closed that gap perfectly. Today saw prices gap lower, close on the highs and did so on respectable volume and against the broader market's weakness. I think the combination of this plus the wave equality and the background strength of the blow off low offers a good opportunity.
10/8:
A nice gap fill to terminate wave-iv. Also of note is that yesterdays rejection coincided with the lower side of the old consolidation. Another example of old support becoming new resistance. We should no start to trade lower into the wave-v. Normally I'd be tempted to go short but with the background strength and the possibility of bullish divergence developing in the broader market I am a little hesitant. That said, I guess if any sector is going to come under pressure from the current global woes it will be the banks. Less so the Big-4, but they'll still feel the heat. If the lows are breached and the wave-v extends fully the target is $25.75.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Took me a bit to work this out but Nick's chart is a chart of ANZ. Interesting analysis.

Sorry. Yes, ANZ - a minor piece of information!

Stop moved to breakeven today.

ANZ stopped at b/even. No harm done.

Here's one put to subscribers from last night in ASX Limited (ASX). Activated today:




BOTTOM LINE
12/9:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
12/9:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 48 secs)
Prices are showing some signs of faltering right here and it may well be that ASX starts to slip, at least in the short term, back toward the mid-August lows. This thinking places the stock in alignment with the expected trajectory of the broader market. Several volume and price considerations to consider here. The last week or so has seen prices rise but volume has been lacking. It appears that buyers aren't overly compelled at these higher levels. The fact that we're seeing volume dry up as we approach the all-time highs may mean the stock is not quite ready to go on with it. Today saw prices gap higher on the positive US lead but fail into the close. Volume was up in comparison to recent activity and with the low close we should conclude that today was dignified by sellers. From a trading perspective we do have a shorting opportunity should prices breach today's lows of $49.20. A protective stop could be placed above today's high to keep risk minimal although placement at the all-time highs would offer some wiggle room. If we're to see the expected decline, then the risk/reward being offered is well worth the trade.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
12/9:
Todays price action also terminated at the 78.6% retracement of the July/August decline. Whilst 78.6% is a well known Fibonacci retracement level its not one that I take a great deal of note of. However, the rejection and volume information are compelling. We also have a 3-wave advance off the significant lows although equality is yet to be reached. Comfort from this corrective bounce would come on a break of the wave-a high set at $48.09. Obviously waiting for a decline down through there severely deprives the trader of a high risk/reward opportunity. Maintaining a high risk/reward over and above accuracy is paramount to success even though we have been brought up through our schooling years to only accept high levels of accuracy (read grades). How far can this decline take us? The mid-August lows show very compelling demand which cannot be taken lightly. It is obvious that those buyers thought the stock a bargain back there and any retest should also be met by the same level of interest. In basic terms I would not be expecting prices to decline too far through $42.00 again.


This email may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Thanks Nick for bringing this one to my attention. I usually steer away from the stocks of over $50.

I shorted this one this week and had success, closing at $48.46. I just took another short at $49.78. The buying side looks a bit patchy.....

Lets see where it goes...

It's Snake Pliskin said:

Thanks Nick for bringing this one to my attention. I usually steer away from the stocks of over $50.

I shorted this one this week and had success, closing at $48.46. I just took another short at $49.78. The buying side looks a bit patchy.....

Lets see where it goes...

Click to expand...

The trade still is open. It finished today at $49.80. As you can see I am losing. But it aint over yet! This will be my last trade I post on the forums.

It's Snake Pliskin said:

The trade still is open. It finished today at $49.80. As you can see I am losing. But it aint over yet! This will be my last trade I post on the forums.

Click to expand...

Snake,

It's Murphy's Law
Section 36, Subsection(c), paragraph(2)

Any trade posted publicly on a forum must fail. Furthermore, it shall be the only losing trade on the trader's books, and all other unposted trades on the trader's books shall be deliriously successful. Only the posted trade must fail. This law is absolute and no exceptions are allowed.

It's Snake Pliskin said:

The trade still is open. It finished today at $49.80. As you can see I am losing. But it aint over yet! This will be my last trade I post on the forums.

Click to expand...

Snake,

I reckon you just might see some fireworks after the first week of next month on the short side, this is somewhat of a struggling move up by ASX, but time is most important and ASX like quite a few other stoxx appears to be chewing up time at present, if you can afford the time be patient.


Just my 2 c

Cheers

wavepicker said:

Snake,

I reckon you just might see some fireworks after the first week of next month on the short side, this is somewhat of a struggling move up by ASX, but time is most important and ASX like quite a few other stoxx appears to be chewing up time at present, if you can afford the time be patient.


Just my 2 c

Cheers

Click to expand...

Hi Wave,

I tend to agree and am prepared to wait for this one. The weekly shows a weakening advance.

Wayne,

Hopefully Murphy's law doesnt strike me.

Stopped out this morning at $50.48.

fwiw, I exited on the 19th at $49.39

Last trade taken was Thursday 13th September on BNB.

A great example of a high probability EW setup with good RR.

BNB impulsed down in a clear 5 wave structure from July 16th. Since then has moved up in what appears a wave A(red wave A), and moved into a consolidation which appears to be a wave B contracting triangle(blue abcde). Trade was initiated as follows:-

-Vehicle: BNB $ 26 Oct call option @ $0.55
-Price of underlying @ $23.22(apex of contracting triangle wave e)
-Target price: $28+(measuredmove, based on height of triangle added to blue wave e)
-Exit Strategy:Take Partial profits @ $26+(assuming it get's there, leave
remainder till primary target reached.
-Contingency Strategy: Close Position Fully if price action falls under blue wave c low of $22.95 at trade will be invalidated(only 27c risk) OR market fails to move in desired direction within 4 trading days


Time cycles indicate that red wave C has a probability of completing in the first week of October which is a significant period for broader market to complete a major cycle, at which point will look to heavily short the market.

Cheers

My latest trade is with QOL which I took at $0.355 cents.
Today it has pushed on only to come back a bit but hold. I am expecting to hold for a while not a few days.
Here is my delayed data chart as of yesterday's close:

Yesterday I took a small position in NCM, just above $27, I'm hoping this is a new support level that we will see a bounce off. I'll be using a trailing stop as my exit.

Here is one in CXP. Nice 3-wave counter trend dip showing wave equality as well as hitting the 61.8% retracement. Volume into these lows is very positive that shows sellers being overcome by buyers. Also have my blue trigger bars..




This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Nick Radge said:

Here is one in CXP. Nice 3-wave counter trend dip showing wave equality as well as hitting the 61.8% retracement. Volume into these lows is very positive that shows sellers being overcome by buyers. Also have my blue trigger bars..

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Click to expand...

Nick,

I really appreciate you posting these, it's good to see how the pro's approach things.

Cheers