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Sub 10c medium term trading strategy

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A few months back Tech spoke to me about potential of trading sub 10c stocks. I would like to share my thoughts.

No doubt this is a more speculative/volatile trading approach, and thus I am devoting a smaller portion of capital to it. This is no 'get rich quick' scheme but rather an interesting approach which can achieve high RR returns.

First of all, the key is to be able to identify setups. I may go into this in some more detail another time. I have become good at identifying these setups. In a nutshell they involve scanning for ultra high volume. The initial setup aside, there are a few benefits of this trading approach:

1) Getting in sub 10c, you can take trades in 0.001 increments, rather than 0.005
2) Because the percentage gap between entry and exit is larger than that of a >$5 stock, you are able to take a much smaller position yet still have much larger R:R potential (this leads to good opportunity cost of capital). This allows you to hold more positions, using up less capital.
3) Because of the high RR potential you only need a small accuracy rate to maintain a good profit.
4) You can sit on these for a while, trailing the stops loosely and you might happen to catch a life-changer in the process.

Caution: Don't neglect risk management. Try and get stops to breakeven asap. Still implement a trailing stop to ensure you don't give back all open profit!

I may even post potential setups in this thread as I identify them.
 
Case Study 1: MNW

Some of you may have seen me discussing this stock. Originally I bought it at 10c, it went into a trading halt that very day and then I told it two days later for 18c. My initial stop was 0.077c. This was a nice 3.5R profit. With $500 of initial risk this is a profit of $1,750. Not bad for 2 days work.

At the time I had to consider how I would go about exiting this stock. I had some wise advice from Tech because these can often die off and then profit is lost.

I have also considered another option. This involves a small portfolio of these types of stocks being held over the medium term, moving the stop to break-even, and then letting it run. The RR potential makes the opportunity cost of capital very attractive to be used in this way.

See the charts below.

(note anything can happen from here, including the stock taking a nosedive. Implement some sort of defensive strategy.)

MNW - part 1 2013.png

MNW - part 2 2013.png
 
From this trade we can see a 13R open profit at the moment. The added benefit of this strategy is that a couple of huge wins (say a 20-30R win) can allow us to have many trades between breakeven and 0.5R-1.0R losses and still be above water.

Case Study 2 - SDL (entry this week)

This is one that I actually took this week. It may lead to nothing, but it may also take off. We will see. This is an even tighter entry than MNW.

Entry details and current profit are on the charts below.

***Note***
- Stop is already at breakeven, so the risk has been eliminated in this trade in the opening 2-3 days.
- For some $4,500 may be too large of a position size to hold for a speculative strategy like this. Even if we have a portfolio of 10 stocks with a position size of $1,000 each, there is good profit potential.

If one of these 10 stocks takes off then we are laughing. As Tech always says, it's about getting in front of the train.

I'm not at all suggesting this would happen but if SDL did return to it's former highs of around the 60c mark, this is how we would look.
Price: 0.60
Shares: 55,555
Position size: $33,300
Profit: $28,800 (58R profit)

Holding $1,000 position size = $6,400

SDL - 2013 - part 1.png

SDL - 2013 - part 2.png
 
Case Study 3 - RIA (entered the setup this week)

This one has an even wider percentage between entry and initial stop, allowing us to take a position of just under $2,000, with $500 risk. This kind of math offers very high RR potential.

***Note***
- Stop has already been moved to breakeven. Risk eliminated. I may get stopped but I don't care. Either it takes off or it doesn't.
- Speculative: if it reaches it's former highs of around 80c, this is how we will be looking:
Price: 0.80
Shares: 62,500
Position size: $50,000
Profit: $48,000 (96R)

- on $1,000 position size = $24,000 (48R) - not bad for a $10,000 portfolio of 10 stocks.

Maybe worth holding $1,000 of this type of stock with that type of potential.

RIA 2013.png
 
These are the only 2 setups that I am currently in. I am scanning for more and looking to hold between 5-10 if I find some good ones.

Please note that this is highly speculative. We cannot count on these types of returns. My thinking is as follows.

1) A nice little side-strategy with huge ROI potential to put $10,000 into,holding 5-10 stocks and see what happens.
2) The speculative returns above are highly unlikely, but if we are holding between 5-10 stocks, you never know. One may be a big fish.
3) I touched briefly on the risk management side of things but want to reiterate, we cannot be loose in our thinking. Risk management comes first. As you can see, both my stops are to breakeven already as was the case with my MNW trade after day 1. Don't be complacent.
4) I have not touched on a trailing stop strategy but I do have one. I want to ensure that I am freeing up cash for new opportunities should the stocks I am holding really drop off. However, I will not be exiting willy-nilly as the whole point of my strategy is to catch a 50-100R winner.
 
I might even consider running a mini portfolio online in real time (similar to the Tech and Pav one in the other thread).

This would be far less involved, with fewer setups and fewer updates to trailing stops. It would be more of a buy and hold one.

I'm not sure how I will go with time, but we'll see.

I've already setup a spreadsheet with the first two stocks included: RIA and SDL.

I will need to clarify the rules in terms of posting charts with company codes/setups, as I don't want to get in trouble for being seen as giving advice (which I am not).
 
SETUP

A bit of a wider percentage stop on this one

I'm thinking maybe we risk $250 on each trade. This will make it more affordable for people (not that they will be taking these particular setup --- but rather for illustration sake.
Shares: 15,625
Position size:$625

Sub 10c - set up 3.png
 
*please note a couple of errors.

Where I've put "with $1,000 position size ="
I meant "with $1,000 profit ="
 
Sub 10c strategy....is great, Just look at (SIR) what happened in 12 months.

Avoid the share gurus who sell books for a living that is the best strategy.
 
Really enjoying Tech and your trading in the other threads and looking forward to this strategy! Closely watching PCL lately with its recent reversal :)
 
Sub 10c strategy....is great, Just look at (SIR) what happened in 12 months.

Avoid the share gurus who sell books for a living that is the best strategy.

Interesting SIR....

I went back over the chart and realised I actually marked this one up at 10c at the time. I wasn't taking these sorts of trades back then, but interesting.

I guess this sort of chart illustrates the point that it is possible to get on a big winner if you're in enough trades. From 10c to $5 in less than 12 months. I probably would have got out at somewhere between $3.80 - $4.00 on the way back down.

The issue with this one is how much the stock opened up on the day it began its amazing run. Would not have got close to the fill desired. Hypothetically if we had, for $250 risk, we would have a position size of $1,700 and a profit less than 12 months later of around $60,000 amazing!

If we can actually get onto one of these (with good entry) during this exercise it would be amazing. I will be taking most of the trades myself.
 
Sub 10c strategy....is great, Just look at (SIR) what happened in 12 months.

Avoid the share gurus who sell books for a living that is the best strategy.

I know a share guru who writes books and has a great track record. Don't lump them all in the same boat.
 
One of them was a big mover today. SDL. Already at 5R profit. A solid start.

Interesting that there is a bit of a gap to around the 20c area. Let's see if it can get there without too many problems. It will be an interesting few days.

SDL - 2013 - part 3.png

SDL - 2013 - part 4.png
 
I think for the purpose of the exercise I'll do a $20,000 account risking $400 (2%) per trade.

Was tossing up between $20,000 and $10,000. I wouldn't want to go any higher.
 
Have included SDL and RIA as I started my own personal sub 10c portfolio with these two last week. These are the only two stocks sub 10c that I currently hold. I didn't include my MNW trade because it was too long ago. These are the only three sub 10c stocks that I've held in that time.

Sub10c account 21-10-2013.png
 
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